moonslav59

MVCY Most Valuable Chain Yanker

We are 28-28. For what it's worth BR has our Pythagorean W-L at 31-25, which would be 1/2 ahead of MIN fo the last slot, instead of 2.5 behind. In team stats, we place... 2nd in fWAR pitching (4th SP/ 2nd RP) 10th Earned Runs Allowed (4th in ERA) 18th Runs Allowed 18th in fWAR everyday players. 9th in OPS (12th in OBP/9th in SLG) 13th in runs scored 22nd in OAA Our 28-28 record is 13th best in MLB. 0.5 behind 11th (SDP & SFG) 2.5 behind 9th (MIN & SEA) 4.5 behind 7th (ATL & MIL) On the flip side, we are tied for 13th best w CHC & STL. We are 0.5 ahead of #16 DET (bottom half of MLB) 1.0 ahead of #17 & 18 (TBR & TEX) 1.5 ahead of #19 TOR 2.0 ahead of #20 & 21 PIT & WASH for bottom third tier.

We could just take the short cut by flying Jamaica Planes Airways to Also-Ran Land.

Our "Schwarber" might have to be Casas. This reminds me of another pattern us fans have been going through for years: waiting for IL players (mostly SP'ers) to return and "save the day," and it never happened. There was ... Sale & Bogey in '21 Sale & Nate, Wacha, Hill, Story in '22 Sale & Paxton, Bello, Houck, Whitlock in '23 and now... Casas & O'Neill, Hendriks and after already waiting for all SP'ers not named Houck & Crawford to return. (The 2024 wait on Gio, Story & Whitlock is over.)

A poster, whose name rhymes with mold dead asked why we wanted to watch him kick the ball around RF, after like his 3rd game of the year.

...and Story doesn't?

Post of the Week.

More like two distinct mega-drops. 2019>2020 and 2022>2023>2024. We increased from '20>'21 and '21>'22. CB Tax line: '18 $239M '19 $244M +5M '20 $185M -59M '21 $208M +23M '22 $236M +18M '23 $225M -11M '24 ~$209M -16M 2 year stretches: '18-'20: -54M '20-'22: +51M '22-'24: -27M

We've fallen into a pattern of allowing one big inning, early in the game, then shut them down, while we remain shut down, all game long. If we are to make a move to try and go for it, this year, it's going to have to be Schwarberesque. Maybe 2 X Schwarb-types.

Can we give him a 1Bman's mitt? I think I'd prefer O'Neill over DHam. (Rafaela at SS)

Understandable. I thought you meant top to bottom.

Last thread of respect just tore loose.

Meh. moonslav indulged in hyperbole, but it's lovely hyperbole. If he doesn't understand the concept of a "suggestion" vs a prediction, he won't know what hyperbole means. And who gives a rat's ass about the Celtics and Bruins? Auerbach, Cousy, Russell, and Larry Bird are long gone, and hockey is strictly for white guys. Oh, and, last time I checked, this website is called Talksox. True nuff. I didn't know what to expect this season, so I voted for 81-81, and that's where the Sox are (plus one) one third through the season. But this team is way more complex and interesting than 50-50. Sounds about right, and for a team that was supposed to be worse than last year, what's the beef? For starters, the Sox are paying Sale $17M, Story $22.5M, Giolito $18M, Yoshida $18.6M, Turner $6.7M, and Whitlock $3.5M--and none of them are playing for the Sox. That's over half the $182M payroll shot to hell. That's why the current rotation is being paid $15M total, $1M less than closer Jansen, who has pitched 17.2 innings to date--which is absolutely insane. True, but you have reached the broken record point. And it's that rotation that enables the Sox to have the 3d best ERA in MLB--which is amazing for a team that rarely has excellent pitching. It's a shame to see such good pitching fetch a .500 record. The current Sox lineup has exactly one experienced everyday MLB player, Devers, who is paid more, $29M, than the other 12 lineup players combined. How about that, sports fans? Thus are they inconsistent. That's why all the errors and unearned runs (plus, as moonslav points out, other "earned" runs that are really also unearned runs). That's why weak RISP hitting. Yup, no timely hitting and too many gifts handed to opps. You know, when you figure all the extra outs we gave our opps, and how many extra outs our staff needed to get, our staff is even better than it looks on paper. On the other hand, sometimes these guys come through when you don't expect it--like sweeping Tampa @ Tampa a week ago. Plus we can already see good things in Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela in the outfield, Casas at 1b (actually, it's his bat, not glove). I've seen some heart and soul in this team, but it is not always on display. And don't forget Hamilton, the guy we wanted to kill last season. His total WAR is +0.7 for 30 games played. Last year Story's total WAR for 43 games was +0.8. So who needs freaking Story, who dove for a grounder and is out for the season? I'd prefer Story. Plus I like Wong/McGuire behind the plate. So right now, honestly, just 2 real weak spots, 2b and 1b. But Casas could be back by June 21, and maybe Grissom is only mostly dead at 2b. This lineup just might be good enough if they believe in themselves. I'm still holding out hope for the O. For confirmation, just look right above at moonslav's latest stats on lineup players, starters, and relievers. This team is actually better than .500. Who needs Yoshida when Ref is hitting so well? Who needs Story when Hamilton is outplaying him? DHam has more to prove, especially on D and especially at SS.

The 4th Amigo, Refsnyder, is making a name for himself, now too.

You know the old saying about SP'ers, "You're only as good as your last start." While that is not entirely true, it does have a grain of truth in it. We need Crawford to make us forget about his last start. Speaking of which... Bello 3ER in 5IP Criswell 6ER in 4IP (Houck is the outlier: 1ER in 6IP) Pivetta 5ER in 3.1 IP Crawford 6ER in 4.1 IP ERA on May 23rd and now 1.94 >1.90 Houck 2.17> 2.89 Crawford 2.86> 3.96 Criswell 3.04> 4.20 Pivetta 4.04> 4.18 Bello

Rough night for wins on the farm. Woo lost 9-4 as Uwasawa got rocked. I Campbell worked a scoreless inning (0H, 1BB, 1K) The 8-9-1 hitters provided most of the O, except Dalbec went 1-3 w 2BB and an rbi.Meidroth 3-4, Contreras 3-4 w HR and Rosier with a solo blast & BB. Kavadas 0-4 w 1K POR lost 6-4 as Wikelman got rocked. Teel homered and walked. Mayer 1-4 Paulino 1-4 w 2B Lugo 0-4 (still at 1.047) GRE lost 9-0 as Rogers and everyone let up runs. SAL just scored 2 in the 9th to tie it 4-4, as Dean pitched well. 4IP 1H 1ER 0BB 5K Bleis 2-4 and Taylor tied it w a 2 run HR in 9th. FCL got bombed 10-2 Judice went 2 IP 1H 1ER 0BB 2K

Updated Sox OPS .984 Refsnyder (earned a FT role, at least for a while) .928 Devers (career high OPS & OPS+, so far) .870 Abreu (let's start talking Abreu extension) .857 Casas (could use his bat back) .843 O'Neill (slumping. badly) .836 Wong (still making key plays) .776 Duran (fWAR leader on the team) .743 DHam (went from near the top of the DFA list to near Romy on utility list) .736 Yoshida (take your time on the IL) .688 Romy (doing the little things right) .684 McGuire (helping the staff, a lot.) .617 Story (should stop even listing him) .602 Rafaela (over the modern Mendoza Line) .546 Smith, .532 Cooper & .377 Dalbec (just pathetic) .453 Valdez & .451 Reyes (may not see again in '24) .352 Grissom (in his own category, by himself) ERA Leaders SP'ers 1.90 Houck (11 GS and early Cy Young candidate) 1.96 Whitlock (4 out for season) 2.89 Crawford (11 dropped a lot after bad start) 3.96 Criswell (8 got drilled, last start) 4.18 Bello (9 looked good, tonight, after 1st IP) 4.20 Pivetta (6 up & down) Pen ERA WHIP 0.78 Bernardino 0.83 2.01 Weissert 1.15 2.16 Z Kelly 1.26 (back in AAA) 2.25 Uwasawa 1.00 (in AAA) 2.89 Slaten 0.96 3.06 Jansen 1.25 3.10 Martin 0.93 3.33 Wink 1.56 (in AAA) 3.38 Booser 1.07 4.56 Anderson 1.29

They sure look solid. Don't look now, but Rafaela is heating up a bit, if you can consider .650 to .750 heating up. .651 since May 2nd (80 PAs) .759 since May 20th (26 PAs) Not counting tonight's decent game at 1 for 3 w BB

Can we all agree: Ref needs to play FT (DH and a little LF or RF, if the shorter one?)

When in Rome, do as Romy does!

Out of the top 60 MLB players by fWAR, one can say each team should have 2 players (2 x 30 teams=60 or 2 per team.) We have 3 players in the top 40! There is a big drop off after them, however: 24 Duran 1.9 29 Abreu 1.7 40 Devers 1.4 Next is #85 O'Neill

Very interesting, and here we thought our 7-9 slots batting .578 was as bad as it can get. According to modern line-up metrics, the 5 slot is worth more than the 3 slot, and the 5 slot (.606) for us has been worse than 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6 and almost as bad as the 7 slot at .600. 4 slot: .861 (mostly Devers, Abreu & Casas) 6 slot is more spread out, with Dominic having the most PAs (52 and a .603 OPS up 6th) Surprisingly, Yoshi hi 1.109 in the 6 slot and has the second most PAs (28), there. .881 by Copper in 21 PAs. (Wong, O'Neill, Romy, Casas & Abreu have been monsters in the 6 slot, but with few PAs.)

Not over this, I hope. Kavadas has a very high chance of not doing well. Personally, I think Smith's is equally high, if not higher, but I do think our scouts and guys watching Kavadas closely, know more than I do. It's too early to talk of canning Brez, Bailey and the "whole crew." Bailey could probably win the governorship in MA, if an election was held, today. Brez seems to have made a difference, already. He added arms to the farm and the 40. He's got us at .500, when many expected worse. He was forced to cut a budget than many felt needed an increase to compete in 2024. The CB Tax budget was $226M, last year according to cots, and is at $208M, now. That cut of $18M had to come from somewhere, especially when you consider his failed attempt at bring some stability and durability to the rotation by spending $19.3M x 2 on Gio. The Devers extension kicked in, too, adding $12M to the CBT line. While O'Neill's addition about cancelled out the savings from the Dugo trade, I think Brez did pretty good, looking past the swing and miss with Gio (and Grissom/I Campbell, so far). O'Neill Slaten Weissert Criswell Booser Fitts Sandlin I think Brez, Bailey & Cora look like keepers, to me.

Many disliked the deal, at the time, so hindsight is not really a factor for some. However, I don't recall a single poster expressing glee at the fact that Sale ended the 2023 season and pitching okay to decently. Nobody was talking about extending him or even taking the $20M 2025 option. Now that he's doing very well, and Grissom is sucking, it sure makes the deal look worse, if not outright bad. I do think poster like Bell and others realize why we made the trade, and hoping against hope for Sale to return was wearing thin on Sox brass and many fans. He was no sure bet for 2024, and it didn't look like 2024 was the main focus, this winter, anyway. The addition of Grissom was about 5 years, not just 2024. The signing of Gio, at that money, does counter that idea, but I don't think a single baseball fan in America would have bet on Sale starting more games in 2024 or "24+'25 than Gio. IMO, that was the reason for signing Gio. The Sale trade was not the only one about money: so was the Dugo and Urias trades. The O'Neill trade added salary, but with so few FAs signed, he was hardly a dent in a budget that was actually cut from 2023. It's hard to justify the money aspect of the Sale trade, when we signed Gio, only to watch him miss the season, but if Gio was just 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA, and Grissom was hitting .690, this discussion would not be so heated. I don't think the fact that Gio and Grissom have given us less than nothing, while Sale has pitched like vintage Sale for 1/3 a season is enough to give the trade a final grade, there is certainly enough to go on to speak out against it. I may be in a minority, but I think Grissom will end up being a plus for us. He should be plus on O and near average on D, hopefully sooner rather than later. (BTW, just average or slightly below average on D is better than we've seen in years, at 2B.) I wish the best for Sale. I loved seeing him in a Sox uni. I loved the tarde for him, since day one. I was shocked we got him and pronounced, "We got freakin' Sale1" It's sad it ended like this, for us. It would have been nice to see him quiet some critics and bring us some wins, even if this is to be a "lost season." He is a true professional. We sure could have used him, this year. All this being said, I still think the trade made sense. It saved JH the money he wanted- like it or not. It gave us a very good chance at solving the 2B issue this team has had for 3-4 years, and it took away the uncertainty of another pitcher known for being close friends with the IL, something this team has been all about since 2018. The trade has blown up, so far, but there is a long way to go.

It does look good.