I'm not completely convinced the spending continues to decline or hold even. I'm not saying they will spend more or much more, especially for 2025, but I would not be shocked, if they do. JH has a pretty long history of spending very big, sometimes, seemingly out of the blue, and then suddenly putting on the brakes. If you look at his entire couple of decades with the Sox, one could point to the Dodger dump trade or the Mookie trade/2020 fiasco as JH's boldest slash and burn moments, not the 2024 season. Just because a few owners decided to start spending bigly, all at once, and passed JH in the rankings, doesn't mean JH changed his strategy radically.
As for the 2025, your point is eye-opening. Only 4 contracts of $6M per or more on the books, and all are $18M or more. Nothing between Rafaela's $6M and Yoshida's $18M, except Bello at about $9M. Very strange. (Hendriks at $5M and Whitlock at $4.7M are the only other non-option deals.
There are more arbs than just McGuire & Joely, as several players reach arb 1 year. These will not be expensive, but are still slight raises coming: Houck, Crawford, Duran, Reyes and Dalbec. (Joely and Ref have options.)
I can't speak for Sox Nation, but I think many are already at the end of their patience. I'm not sure JH & Co. know this or care about it, but if they go one more winter in punt mode, they may irreversibly lose a sizeable chunk of their fan base.
AAV lost this winter:
$16M Jansen
$7.5M Martin
$7.5M Pivetta
$5.9M O'Neill
These guys might be traded, this summer, and their lost contracts are about $37M. If we fail to even just replace that $37M, let alone spend significantly more, all hell might break out.
I suppose they may look at the chances all the up and coming prospects and players can gel in 2025 are slim, and waiting until 2026 makes more sense, I'm not sure they can sell that idea, too easily.
Let's be honest. soxprospects projects Anthony, Mayer and Teel starting 2025 in AAA, but even if they rake, this summer and all start the 202 season in the bigs, can we really expect a Lynn and Rice situation? Here is what soxprospects projects for 2025, but I added the big 3 and left ___ blanks___ where I think we'd need to make essential additions to be a serious contender:
SP1 _____
SP2 _____
SP3 Bello
SP4 Crawford
SP5 Houck
SP6 Fitts/ Criswell
Closer ______
RP2 Hendriks
RP3 Whitlock
RP4 ______
RP5 Slaten
RP6 Winckowski
RP7 Bernardino
RP8 Weissert, Campbell, Fulmer, Guerrero, Kelly
C: Teel, McGuire/Wong
1B: Casas
2B: Grissom
SS: Story
3B: Devers
LF: Duran/Abreu
CF: Rafaela/Anthony
RF: Anthony/Abreu
DH: Yoshida (Abreu/Valdez)
Utility IF _____ (Reyes)
Would JH & Co. view this roster as 3-4 major additions away from being serious?