moonslav59

The only thing I assume about STORK is he is full of BS. If he's right about the option, it's a blind squirrel on a broken clock.

I'll take that as a resounding, "No."

I agree, but would this be enough? Soto, Crochet, Scott & Higgy? Soto, Pivetta, Holmes & Jansen?

Castillo contract - Yoshida contract make him very affordable. Including msayer is an obvious overpay, agreed.

It could be Soto is asking for another guaranteed year, and BOS is insisting on a team option year w buy ouy.

FA Pitchers still around. MLBTR has been hot and cold on $$$ projections, but here they are: $200M/6 Burnes (might take $250M/7) (Snell $160M/5- after dererals, pretty close) $156/6 Fried (might take $190/6) $115/5 Flaherty (might take $150/6) $60M/3 Manaea (Might take $85M/4) (Kikuchi $60M/3 went for $61M/3) $51M/3 Severino (maybe $76M/4) $44M/4 Eovaldi (maybe $60M/3) (Boyd $25M/2 got $29M/2- pretty close) $24M/2 Heaney (maybe $33M/3) (Montas $22M/2 got $34M/2) $21M/1 Pivetta (might get $60M/3) $20M/2 Quintana (maybe $22M/2) $16M/1 Scherzer, $15M/1 Buehler, $13M/1 Gibson, $12M/1 Bieber & Verlander RP: $56M/4 Scott (maybe $64M/4) $44M/4 Hoffman (maybe $48M/4) $30M/3 Holmes ($33M/3?) $27M/3 Estevez ($30M/3?) $16M/2 AJ Minter (LHP) maybe gets $21M/3 $14M/1 Yates (maybe gets $20M/2) $14M/2 Soroka & Kittredge, Kahnle $11M/1 Robertson

"pivot" was an obvious joke. They could still sign Soto, Burnes and Scott.

I just listed all 40 man roster players and top prospects. "Foundation" can have many connotations.

Again, I would never be for a plan where bauer was the best SP'er we add. I'm thinking Fried & Bauer. I'd also want Scott & Holmes, or at least 2 from Hoffman, Estevez and Holmes. We also need a catcher who can catch. We can trade for one of two of these slots, but if money gets short, we will need some signings like Criswell, last year. Bauer has more upside than most minor league signings.

Boyd at $29M/2 is scary high. Guys like Pivetta and Severino are smiling.

Could be. The Montas signing looks way over. Others about as expected.

MLBTR had Montas at $22M/2. He got $34M/2.

If we trade Story, he'll win the NL MVP, next year.

Mets pivoted from Soto and signed Montas at $34M/2. LOL

No clowns on X have verified anything.

And those are the facts!

A look at who brought us the foundation we have, right now: Ben: Devers (also not traded by DD) DD: Houck, Duran, Casas, Bello, Crawford, Rafaela, Perales, Jh Garcia, Wikelman, Murphy, Shugart, Castro Bloom: Anthony, Mayer, Whitlock, Abreu, DHam, Yoshida, Wong, Wink, Guerrero, Refsnyder, Dobbins, Kelly, Bernardino, E Valdez, Romero, Jo Garcia, E Rod, Sogard, Monegro, Paez, Mullins Brez: Slaten, K Campbell, Teel, Montgomery, Giolito, Criswell, Arias, Cespedes, Grissom, Priester, Fitts, Tolle, Sandlin, Cason, Romy, Hendriks, Weissert, Penrod, Valera, D Reyes, Ju Gonzales, Wilson, Fulmer, Booser, I Campbell, Gasper

Me, too. If we get Soto and Scott, plus maybe Higgy or Jansen, I'm not sure we'd also outbid everyone for Burnes or Fried. Maybe we do sign one, and use Abreu and others to beef up the pen via trades.

The AAV for Fried is just about $3-5M more, but with 3 more years. Burnes might be $29-30M a year, which is about $8-9M more than Castillo and for 7 yrs vs 3. If we get SEA to pay $15M, it would lessen the AAV to about $16M, which would allow us to sign a top RP'er for $10-12M, Maybe... Castillo (+ cash) and Hoffman = Burnes Castillo + Scott= Fried

Here are some comments from soxprospects.com on our top pitching prospects: 6. Perales: potential mid rotation starter w ceiling as a #2. Could be high leverage RP'er with premium bat-miss ability. 11. Dobbins: potential depth starter or multi innings RP. Ceiling is mid rotation SP, Plus velocity w wide ranging arsenal. 12. Fitts: fringe back-end SP or multi IP RP. Ceiling of 4th SP. Has command & control. Needs a 3rd pitch. 13. Tolle: wide range of outcomes. Could have untapped potential due to late focus on pitching. 14. Sandlin: Potential swingman. Ceiling mid rotation SP. Stuff ticked up in '24. 17. Early: depth SP w ceiling as 4th SP. Nice change up. 18. Wikelman: up & down swingman. Ceiling as leverage RP. Has 4 pitches. 20. Cason: more potential as pitcher. Standout athleticism. 21. Guerrero: middle innings RP. Ceiling as leverage RP. 23. Valera: Raw arm with need for 3rd pitch, 24. Penrod: ceiling as mid RP. Premium raw stuff. 25. E Rod: Ceiling as backend SP. 4 pitch mix, but no go-to pitch. 26. Monegro: Ceiling as solid mid inning RP. 27. D Reyes: high upside arm. Throws strikes. 28. Paez: ceiling back end SP. Strong control & command w advanced secondary offerings, Lacks strong FB. 29. Mullins: Ceiling as 7th inning RP, Premium bat-missing skills but lacks control. 33. Wehunt, 36, Neely, 37. Clarke, 38. Tygart, 39. Bastardo, 41. Dean, 42. Carlson, 44, Ingrassia

I'm more of a stats driven guy than personal observations and scouting reports. I've been wrong on a lot of pitching prospects, so I do not pretend to know more than anyone else. soxprospects.com seems to be pretty conservative on projecting our pitching prospects ceilings. A look at some OPS Against numbers encourages me. .411 Valera (63 IP w FCL + Salem) .505 Y Ruiz (46 IP w DSL) .537 Ingrassia (58 w Salem) .552 Dean (80 w Salem + GRE) He gets very little love. .580 E R-C (90 SAL + GRE) .596 Monegro (76 FCL + GRE) .601 Kirwin (69 SAL) .597 Wehunt (97 w 3 teams) .625 Cohen (98 SAL) .651 Sansone (72 SAL) .674 Mullins (89 GRE) .675 Paez (97 SAL-GRE) .698 Rogers (83 GRE) True, none of these guys are above A ball, and none had over 100 IP but still... Smaller sample sizes: .341 D Reyes (17 IP), .385 O Sanchez (17), .491 Colina (30), .503 Carta (31), .542 Go, .546 Rivera (30), .564 Galvan (33)nzalez (22) Above A Ball: .590 Bonnin (42 GRE-POR) .611 Dobbins (126 IP POR-WOO) .619 Wikelman (84 POR) .622 Kwiatkowski (79 POR-WOO) .631 Perales (34 GRE-POR) .632 Early (104 GRE-POR) .651 Guerrero (54 WOO) .654 Penrod (62 POR-WOO) .670 I Coffey (114 POR) .672 Priester (38 WOO) .686 Bastardo (45 POR)

I'm not sure JH has to get approval for upping an offer by $10-20M over 14 years. Even if he does, I'm not sure "No" will be the answer.

After deferments, the Snell signing was not all that much more than projections. If SEA traded Castillo, they could sign any of these guys for similar money. Most are younger and have similar STEAMER projections for 2025 and should be better in following years, due to age. STEAMER has Castillo increasing his value from 2.3 to 2.8. He is owed $23M x 3 with a tricky option. $26M x 6 Fried (3.2 projected/3.4 in '24) $23M x 5 Flaherty (2.5 from 3.2) $22M x 2 Eovaldi (2.8 from 2.7) $21M x 1 Pivetta (2.5 from 2.0) $17M x 3 Severino (1.9 from 2.1) Of course, the Sox could just sign one of these guys, instead of trading a top prospect for Castillo, but the idea of SEA including some offset cash would maybe allow BOS to also sign Scott or another RP'er and a catcher. You mention how Snell improves Castillo's value, but so do these FA options for BOS when lookin at trading for a 32 year old pitcher owed $23M x 3.

A Soto signing would stretch to a possible future window, with a possible 2-4 year rebuild inbetween. I agree, though. The Sox have a young foundation already established, plus 4-5 prospects that are near or at ML readiness, plus another 4-5 prospects that could be significant by 2026 to 2027. bWAR and age 8.7 Duran 27 3.7 Devers 27 3.5 Abreu 25, Houck 28 2.8 Rafaela 23 2.6 DHam 26 2.0 Crawford 28 1.6 Wong 28, 1.5 Bello 25, 0.9 Slaten 26 & Whitlock 28, o.4 Casas 24 (injured) Yankees (10.8 Judge is 32, 2.6 Cortes turns 30, soon, 2.0 Cole is 33, 1.9 Rodon 31) 3.4 Volpe 23 3.1 Gil 26 2.5 Wells 24 2.0 Schmidt 28 1.5 Chisholm 26 1.3 Cabrera 25 0.9 Poteet 29

As much as I have tried to construct a trade involving Yoshida and Castillo, I seriously doubt SEA takes Yoshida. A more likely trade would be something going to SEA for Castillo + $15-20M. That would make Castillo more attractive to BOS than signing a FA SP'er. If the Sox viewed Garver as a capable back-up catcher for Wong, until Teel is ML ready, maybe we could include Yoshida as a money balancer, and not as filling some major need by SEA. Mayer + Yoshida for Castillo + Garver would not be accepted by BTV, and maybe not by Brez & JH, either, but I think I'd do it. I'm not sure how much SEA values Mayer, or if they view him as ML ready could be the deciding factor. Would Mayer for Castillo + $10M a year be acceptable to both sides?