moonslav59

Isn't their TV deal mega more than anyone else, except maybe NYY? I found this for 2023 on fangraphs: $197 LAD $143 NYY $97 BOS

When you look at how our highest paid players have been injured, underperformed, or both in the last 5.3 years, there is some reason to consider on why JH has pulled in the strings on spending large and long. I'm not defending his choices, but it's not like spending bigly has worked for him.

That is one reason we will never near them, unless they choose to make massive cuts. To me, if we just started $5-10M under the tax line every 2-3 years and went over the first line but not the second, 2 out of every 3-4 years, it would be hard to bitch a whole lot. In theory, JH should be able to do something like this: 5-10 under 39 over (just under the second line) 10 over (just under 1st line) reset at 5-10 under repeat

Yes, that is a significant factor, but to me, underperformance by our higher paid players is number 1 on my list of reasons we can't get beyond .500 or sniff the playoffs. Granted $10M/1 is not a "big contract," but those have been among the top 10 on the team over the last few years. While we had way more higher paid players in 2019, the underperformances began, then: (Note: while a $4M deal is not "big," i included all deals of $4 or more to show the shifts from large to medium and sub medium. The line demarks the top 10 salaries, each year) Red= Underperformed, injured or both 31 Price 22 GS 4.28 22 JD 21 Porcello 5.52 ERA 20 Betts 17 Nate 12 GS 5.99 14 Pedey 21 PAs 15 Sale 25 GS 4.40 12 Bogey 9 JBJ 7 Moreland 6 Pearce 99 PAs .503 OPS 6 Vaz 5 Nunez 174 PAs .548 OPS 4 ERod/Holt 2020 was when the full throttle purge began, but injuries and declines continued: 26 Sale No show 22 JD .680 20 Bogey 17 Nate Made 9 of 12 starts 14 Pedey No show 11 JBJ 8 E Rod No show 7 Perez 4.50 not really underperforming exp's. 5 Beni only 52 PAs .442 5 Vaz 4 Pillar (Traded) 4 Workman (Traded for Pivetta) 2021 saw some improved health and bounce back years: 25 Sale 9GS 22 JD 20 Bogey 17 Nate 10 Richards 22 GS 4.87 demoted to pen 9 Ottavino 4.21 was not much below expectations 8 ERod 4.74 ERA is high for him 7 Kike 5 Perez 4.74 about as expected 5 Barnes Fell apart last 2 months 5 Vaz .659 5 Devers 2022 brought the Story contract and the $5-10M one deals: 26 Sale 2GS 23 Story 22 JD .790 & 74 RBI 20 Bogey 73 RBI 17 Nate 12 JBJ .578 11 Devers 10 Paxton No show 9 Barnes 4.31 7 Kike 7 Vaz 7 Wacha 23 GS about expected, but pitched well 5 Hill 26 GS and 4.27 ERA 2023 was the questionable choice to stay over $16M under the tax line. 26 Sale 20 GS 4.30 23 Story 168 PAs .566 18 Devers 18 Yoshida .783 not horrible, but... 16 Jansen 11 Turner 10 Kike 323 PAs .599 (Traded) 10 Kluber 9GS 7.07 9 Barnes + Blier ugly 8 Martin 7 Duvall Just 353 PAs but did well 6 Verdugo A bit of a let down but kept in black (balanced Duvall) 5 Pivetta 4 Paxton 19 GS 4.50 (had a nice stretch) 2024: the inexplicable further cuts to the budget. Jury is out on some, but we know some are toasted) 29 Devers 23 Story Out 19 Gio Out 18 Yoshida To late to redeem 16 Jansen ??? 9 Bello So far, a letdown 8 Martin So far, a letdown 8 Pivetta Missed some time 6 O'Neill Missed some time 5 Hendriks Out until AUG 5 Whitlock Out (None between 2.1 and 4.6) The RED really shows the #1 issue. By year in RED: 5 of top 7 '19 7 of top 9 '20 worst year 4 of top 7 '21 best record in 5 years and least RED (4 in top 10) 8 out of 10 '22 6 out of 9 '23 3 out of top 4, already

I'm not happy being even $10M under the tax line. It sucks, and it shouldn't be this way. That being said, if just half of our biggest contracts worked out fine, we'd be knocking on the playoff door, loudly.

Sox injury update, according to ESPN: Expected return to action date (not MLB) June 4 I Campbell is rehabbing in AAA June 5 O'Neill: begins rehab today June 8 Mata: might be DFA'd when ready June 11 Romy G; should be MLB ready on the 11TH June 11 Yoshida: should begin rehab assignment this week June 12 Grissom: getting imaging June 13 Abreu: 10 day IL June 19 Martin: will be placed on 15 day IL July 9 Casas: taking grounders at 1B August 1 Hendriks 2025 Giolito, Story, Whitlock & Murphy

Just Baseball updated their Top 100: 12. Anthony 26. Mayer 33. Teel 90. Cespedes The Athletic's Top 50: 4. Mayer 19. Teel 25. Anthony MLB.com (May) 11. Mayer 16. Anthony 29. Teel If you average them all, we have 3 in the top 30. 14. Mayer 18. Anthony 27. Teel In some ways, it sucks having to pin almost all our hopes un unproven rookies, but this sure beats how we looked in 2020 to 2022, in terms or long term outlook. Even if 2 or 3 work out fine, we might still need a significant boost in spending to reach glory again.

DSL rosters are set. Scroll to the very bottom... https://www.soxprospects.com/org.htm

We will never spend like LAD. Maybe the Mets might, someday. I'd be happy with #4-6 in 2025.

Its got to the point where this is expected.

Kavadas Shmovadas... It's Bobby Freakin' Dee!

I doubt anyone but the Dodgers would take him at half price. Look how everyone complained about paying Sale to pitch elsewhere, even before he did well, and Sale did not come close to what Price had done the 3-4 years before the trade. We'd have had to pay $24M out of the $32M to find someone to take him. That's $8M less to spend for a few years on budgets already cut to the bare bone.

Except for the $300M on Devers, the $100+ on Yoshida, the $140 on Story and a $36M, $18M and others thrown in just for giggles.

There comes a point where replacing the same thing every year gets you to move away, or stop buying shingles made of paper. It seems JH is happy with paper shingles.

Indeed.

In terms of the return, yes. I do not think LA wanted Price. The way the trade worked out, had they not given Downs if Price was not in the deal, then not much changes, but we’d have theoretically spent less on other players in the following years other than 2020. I do think we’d have traded Betts without Price if nobody took half his contract, but who knows the return.

Non pitchers list

Okay, but you don’t replace your roof every year.

I guess a lot depends on thinking we could or could not have won without him. I think it's a close call, but I'd say we needed him. $217M is a lot for 1 ring. One could probably find a cheaper pitcher that would have allowed us to win without him, but hye, a win is a win, and in that sense, it's seems okay. Winning a ring with Rusney on the books does not carry the same weight. Does no rings after the Nate signing mean the deal was bad? If not, why isn't the same standard applied? I thought the Price signing was necessary, as it was also pre-Sale trade. I thought he was as good of a gamble as one could possibly hope for, at the time. He was not old. He was a proven winner. He had been durable. He checked all the boxes, as Scherzer did the previous season, when we signed Pablito & HRam, instead. I get the "ring argument." I use it myself, sometimes. Price did help us win a ring and did well in the playoffs in 2018. I'm not sure that makes him worth $217M and his being a necessary part of the Betts trade makes his deal look worse, to me. Without the ring argument, I think it seems clear he was not worth the money, especially with the Betts trade factored into it. With the ring, it seems like a close call of "worth it," to me.

Let's count the wins and losses in his starts with BOS 20-15 '16 6-5 '17 22-8 '18 10-12 '19 58-40 is very good, but in 3 of the 4 years, we went 36-32 in his starts (23 GS/season)

And for your 10 year old car in need of many repairs?

Very true. Also, if we just hit on 50% of our most expensive 4, 6, 8 or 10 most recent signings, I doubt we'd be sub .500 most of the time. To me, we've had major injury and low performance issues with just about every major signing, except Devers, who just started his 10 year deal, in March. Sale Story Yoshida Giolito JD and Bogey did okay after 2018, but did not produce nearly as much as before 2019. Nate did okay but missed some time and was not really good all teh time, when healthy. It's very hard to win when almost all your highest paid players are on the IL, playing badly, playing worse than their norm or two of these 3 things, almost continually. Certainly, spending less has hurt, but to me, the results of our spending has sucked. It may also be a major reason why JH is avoiding trying to fix these mistakes by repeating them.

No, I don't. That is why I am not saying Cora is wrong. I'm just saying what I'd do. I'd ride the hot hand with Ref, until he shows he can't do it anymore. He was also not bad vs RHPs in '22, so it may not be a fluke. His sample size is not tiny. Wong seems to have come close to proven he is better vs RHPs than Cooper has been in 2.3 years. Ref compares to Coop over a 2.3 year sample size, too, so it's not just a "hot hand." 2022-2024 vs RHPs .918 Devers 1035 PAs) .906 Abreu (236) .852 Casas (541) .748 Wong (441) .746 Valdez (226) .713 Refsnyder (263) .708 Cooper (781) .689 O'Neill .677 Smith .654 McGuire .621 Rafaela (230) .611 Grissom (224) .583 Romy (145) .560 Dalbec hell, EValdez seems like a better choice, right now. I'm fine with Coop getting a nother chance, if he starts hitting LHPs, well.

Yes, the team around Betts after the trade was better in LA, overall. You disagree?

Eye opening. How about 20 game sample sizes: ERA/xFIP First 20: 1.35/2.54 Houck 4GS 0.42/3.66 Crawford 4 1.96/3.74 Whitlock 4 0.82/2.57 Pivetta 2 3.92/3.46 Bello 4 Middle 20: 3.16/3.07 Houck 4 2.88/4.24 Crawford 4 1.40/2.89 Criswell 4 2.13/5.43 Wink 3 1.64/3.54 Bello 2 Last 20 1.05/3.05 Houck 4 6.55/4.64 Crawford 4 6.50/3.76 Criswell 4 4.43/2.77 Pivetta 4 6.14/3.53 Bello 4