moonslav59

It has to be Crawford to the pen, assuming Gio is not on the IL, day one. Reports say he should be ready. They may not like Crawford in the pen, and when you see what some marginal pitchers are getting in trade, we may just deal him. Unless we sign Hoffman or Estevez (Scott is a pipedream) I'd keep CC. (I'd keep him, even if we sign one.) I'm almost ready to give up on any remaining hopes we actually spend on a top 50 Free Agent. This has gotten beyond absurd. We go from "being in on Soto" to Buehler, Chapman, Sandoval and Wilson. It's all a sick joke.

Tragic comedy right before our eyes.

What baffles me is how many posters wanted Buehler and the injured pitcher, failed plan to continue. Even if Buehler does great, I'm sick to death of this philosophy of avoiding the best pitchers to apparently save a buck or two. Is spending $78M on 4.3 yrs (assuming Sandoval gives us .3 in '25) really saving all that much? I get the risk factor on shorter deals, but if we keep failing when spending $78M on shorter term deals, we aren't really saving more than just signing a pitcher to $20M x 6 years (except for the longer risk.) We spent more on Gio, Buehler & Sandoval than... $75M/3 Manaea (with deferred money) $75M/3 Eovaldi $67M/3 Severino (I would not have liked this deal, either) $64M/3 Kikuchi 2024: $75M/3 S Gray, $62M/2 Snell $53M/4 Imanaga $45M/3 Lugo $32M/2 Wacha + $28M/2 Manaea total is less money! We are getting worse on our pitcher signings- not better, despite spending more.

Joking: I hope. Even adding Scott would be a bad overall winter.

We could get Teoscar, Scott or Hoffman and stay under the tax line, which they claimed was not an issue, this winter. (Yeah, right.) I could see us extending Crochet, starting in 2025. It would make it easier to get him to sign, by giving him more cash, upfront, and keep the AAV a little lower for future budget pinches. I could see them thinking the roster is all set, as is. The sham goes on.

I'm seriously doubting we will before opening day. I doubt it's a pitcher. Apparently, we think Buehler, Sandoval, Wilson and Chapman have one last hurray, in them. I doubt it's Bregman. Hell, these guys are talking about using him at 2B, for God's sake! The best bet might be Teoscar, since Santander wants 5 years, and our OF looks set for 3-5 years. There is nobody else not mentioned above that would make a big impact.

2019 was the last year we signed good SP'ers to more than a 2 year deal, unless you count the Bello deal. Both we already in the system. Sale got $145M/5 w an option and Nate got $68M/4. We never replaced Porcello's $83M/4 deal after 2019. What we've done since then is a total joke. 2020: $6.5M/1 Perez 2021: $10M/1 Richards & $5M/1 Perez 2022: $10M/2 Paxton (out yr 1) $7M Wacha, $5M HIll 2023: $10M/1 Kluber 2024: $39M/2 Giolito 2025: $21M/1 Buehler, $18M/2 Sandoval (out most of yr 1) So, AAV per year: $7M>$15M>$17M>$15M>$30M, and what did we get? I get the fact that one year deals are supposed to be "less risky," but this plan has been backfiring since day one. If you look at the money spent in the last 2 years: $39M for 2 years of Gio+ $18M/2 for Sandoval (knowing it will be 1.3 yrs at best) + $21M for Buehler, it comes to $78M for basically 2 pitchers a year. That's $18M per pitcher x 2 or $39M a year. (This is counting Sandoval's 2026 season, so it's not really 2 calendar years.) We couldn't do better with this kind of money? Really? God, this is just plain awful. I'm sick of this crapola.

I think Wacha and Hill count, as both were not going to be on the IL to start the year, like Sandoval will be. These guys have not changed, at all. The sham goes on, and on, and ...

Mets sign Manaea. There is no way, after this Buehler signing, we are still in on Burnes or Flaherty. Our best hope is for a good RP'er and RHB.

Plan Z materialized: Buehler and Sandoval for the rotation. The hope is that Buehler can stay healthy, until Sandoval is ready. Sound familiar? Actually, this was likely plan A, all along.

Arenado has over 600 PAs in 9 of 10 seasons, with the Covid season being the only one without. He had 10 straight GG awards up to 2022.. He turns 34, soon and is no longer a GG'er or Sliver Slugger (5 time winner,) but he would be a major upgrade to our 3B defense, if we play him there. He bats RH'd, but his power has slipped. Even his doubles have decline with the home runs. Still, a .325 OBP and 16 HRs is not bad. We gotta hope he doesn't keep dropping off. Last 3 years OPS+: 151>108>101. He had reverse splits, this year and last, so maybe he's not the big helper vs LHPs we are seeking, but his career splits are decent: .834 v RHPs and .928 v LHPs. With previous rumors of Casas being traded, I wonder if those talks will be renewed. I'd rather keep Casas in the line-up by sharing 1B & DH duties with Devers, but that would mean benching Yoshida, or eeek!, playing him in LF. This isn't a bad line-up: 1. Duran LF v R/ CF v L 2. Campbell 2B 3. Casas DH/1B 4. Devers 1B/DH 5. Abreu RF v R/ Refsnyder LF v L 7. Anthony CF v R/ RF v L 8. Arenado 3B 9. Wong & Narvaez C We could maybe trade Abreu for pitching or just sign one.

Maybe Indiana was over-rated, but we are 5-0 vs ranked teams, this year- more wins than anyone else, except Texas at 5-2. AZ St is 4-0. GA is 4-2. We certainly have our work cut out for us w GA, but I think we have ashot.

Knowing these clowns they will play Arenado at 1B and DH or trade Casas, instead of playing him at 3B, where he belongs. Word is, we gave up Fitts. Not sure about the money.

That would be typical and perhaps even likely.

Ok, he turns 34 like on opening day, but Walker has done better after 30 than before. .767 up to 30 ..813 31>

If we sign Burnes, I'll take back everything I wrote about Sandoval. Just find a decent catcher or RHB, and the winter will be a net big plus. Sign Bregman or Teoscar and we still need a pitching fix (via Casas or Abreu trade?)

Bloom set a low bar, there.

To me, we are down to just a handful of major impact FAs: Burnes was not my first choice, but he is a bonafide top of rotation SP'er and would put us into the net plus gain for the winter with just one signing. His addition to the rotation would also push Crawford to a plus role in the pen and someone like Guerrero to AAA depth. He's gotta be the number one FA fit for us. Scott is a longshot. I have not even heard our names mentioned as a suitor. He's a lefty, but the addition of Chapman should not be a reason to bypass the only real closer on the market. Bregman would solve two problems with one signing- maybe three. He'd help balance our L-R situation, despite just being a .795 hitter for the last 5 years. He'd greatly improve our 3B depth. (I'm not okay with signing him to play 2B. That would be idiotic.) He may also indirectly improve our 1B defense and add more playing time for Devers and Casas, as they would share 1B and DH duties. Teoscar does not fill a positional need, at all, but he does give us a better RHB than Bregman. Adding him would almost surely mean we trade Abreu and or Rafaela, and if the fills a second big need, then signing him would be worth it. Santander is a borderline target, IMO. He wants a longer contract than Teoscar, and he's a switch hitter, but I'm not so sure he'll be that much better than an Abreu-Rafaela platoon over the length of his contract, and at the cost he will get, I could easily say the number is 4, not 5. Hoffman is borderline, too, but our need for a strong pen arm might make him #5. There are plenty of other FAs that would be helpful and maybe even significant additions, but I'm not so sure the money would be worth the upgrade. We have to be honest with the money aspect. While we all agree Henry can and should spend more, the reality is, whatever we spend now won't be spent later. It the upgrade from Crawford to Flaherty worth $130M/5? To Manaea or Pivetta worth $70M/3? Is signing Alonso and cutting Yoshida loose with Casas to DH worth it, when it also means Devers stays at 3B for years to come? Profar or Torres? Nope. Buehler or Estevez? Not major enough. The numbers are dwindling. Trade opportunities are still out there, but we already lost 4 Teel, 5 Montgomery and 8 Meidroth. How much more of the future do we want to chip away at? I hear the talk that it's just December 22nd and over half of the top 50 FAs are still out there, but to me, we needed top quality additions, not several mid-level additions. We don't need to improve on our 5th starter and bench players. We do need an upgrade at catcher, but there are none left on the FA market. I'm just not seeing anyway to significantly improve without signing a top 3-4 FA. Maybe a #5 and #6 (Santander + Hoffman) signing would be okay, but after that, I just don't see it.

Paxton and hendriks were both supposed to be ready by August of the year they signed, and never showed up, until the next year. Paxton did okay/good for a while, then got hurt again (no surprise.) We have yet to see what Hendriks can or will do, but I'm not optimistic. Sandoval might do better, but I'm just sick and tired of these stabs in the dark vs just signing someone we can count on, day one. I get how the Gio signing blew that theory up, but that is not the norm and should not dissuade us from going that route, again. (I'd prefer better quality than Gio, but you get my point about seeking dependability.)

I hated this deal and ones like it, but Sandoval was a damn good pitcher before his injury season of 2024. Obviously, something was wrong from game one. Even pitching hurt (likely,) he still had a decent 3.84 FIP. He didn't suck. He just turned 28.games. He's always walked a few too man batters, but has let up less than 9 hits per 9 IP and has had an okay HR/9 rate, since 2022 (0.7.) From 2021 to 2023, he started 69 games (55 from '22-'23.) 7.6 fWAR (not bad for 2.5 seasons in the rotation) 83 ERA- places him in the top 30 pitchers with 300+ IP in this time frame. His 3.53 ERA ranks 35th out of 104 qualified. 3.72 FIP To be fair, his 1.38 WHIP is in the bottom 10%. I'm fine with being critical of this deal. I really hate paying this kind of money for the hope someone recovers from major surgery. Our record with these signings has been god-awful, but let's not say the guy sucked, before. He was pretty good for the 3 years before 2024. He had a 3.50 ERA from '22-'23. His 84 ERA- was better than Pablo Lopez, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin in that period of time.

Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies via trade.

I mentioned those two moves, as well as the nice addition of Devin Williams. They've added more than we have but lost more, too. Soto>>>> Bellinger Fried>> Cortes D Williams <?> Holmes/Kahnle/Poteet Goldschmidt > Rizzo Alex Jackson <?> Trevino/Narvaez ___ <<< Torres/Berti ___<<< Verdugo They will likely add more, and I said I think they will still add more than we do, but they are still at a net negative, and they are done at 1B and probably OF, at a net loss. The Sox: Crochet >>>> Pivetta Chapman & Wilson <<< Jansen & Martin Sandoval <?> Chase Anderson, Keller & Co. Narvaez << D Jansen but maybe > McGuire, who was with the Sox more than Jansen was in 2014. _____<<< O'Neill (but I have faith in Anthony, Campbell and our Rafaela back to the OF to cover this one.) I'm not saying we've done better than NY with additions. My point was that their subtractions are more valuable than ours are. Both teams have a ways to go to be a net plus, on paper, over 2024.

I get that, but I do not see Booser as being any better than anyone from our #9-16 pen guys in AAA, plus I think we add at least one more pitcher, this winter, which would knowck everyone down one more notch. We also have SP'ers who could be used in the pen in 2025: Let's assume this is the opening day 13 man staff: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito & Crawford Hendriks, Chapman, ______, Slaten, Whitlock, Wickowski, Wilson, Guerrero. Is Booser better than any of the next 8? Criswell (SP,) Penrod, Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert, Fitts (SP,) Priester (SP,) Dobbins (SP) The next 10 might be: Fulmer, Gambrell (SP,) Shugart, Mata, I Campbell, Drohan (SP,) Sandlin, Mills, Adames, Hoppe or Troye IMO, we have plus depth. We are just weak in the quality of our top 2-3 RP'ers. We need a solid closer or a great set-up man. If we add a solid SP'er and a solid set-up man, plus push Crawford to the pen, everyone below number 9 on staff gets bumped down one notch. We go from 8 nice depth choices in AAA to 11. The number 17-26 pitchers become our number 20-29 pitchers. I'm not downplaying depth, but Booser is easily replaceable, and we now have 3-4 lefties better than he is. We are also adding Whitlock to the pen, and he does better vs LHBs than RHBs.

I'm not optimistic.

But hey, we traded away Booser! Yipee! I'm feeling more and more pessimistic with everyday that passes, which is pretty low, considering I started the winter with zero expectations, but some hopes. There was a peak of hope with the Soto bidding, and the day we traded for Crochet and Narvaez was nice, but that's been it. Chapman as a decent signing, but I knew getting him meant no Scott and likely no Hoffman, either. Wilson was just depth, IMO, but one that needs to be on the 26, so I'd rather have signed minor league depth as good as he is. I liked the low key Narvaez deal, but that's not something to get jacked up about. The Crochet deal addressed a major area of need. It was a necessary overpay, but I wish we didn't have to included our one prospect who played a position of current high need: catching. I like Anthony and Campbell way more, and am glad we did not included them, instead, but the Crochet deal also created another need, so that taints it a little bit. (I'm not sure CWS wanted Mayer, of if we'd have subbed him for Teel, anyway, and we may have a need at SS, if Story keeps spending time on the IL.) All-in-all, this winter is looking like a near complete failure. We addressed the TOTR and LH'd RP needs, but created a greater need at C than we had before, and we still need 1 really good pitcher (TOTR or Closer) or two, and a power RHB. There are many weeks left to make some moves and dozens of top 50 FAs left to sign. There are rumors of players available in trade who could fill our needs. Maybe the plan is to swoop in on teh last minute bargain basement deals, but I doubt we see as many as in recent years, because so many teams feel like they have a shot at making the playoffs. There may be less than a handful of teams that are in true rebuild mode. One could even argue there are just two: CWS & MIA. Even the A's have been mandated to spend. We wait too long, and we will be screwed, again. There was a lot of backtracking, after last winter's "full throttle" blooper, but I have not heard much, this winter after the comments about the CBT line not being an issue. We have a ton of money to spend to get to the line, but I have a very strong feeling we never get close to it. We'll hear the excuses, later.