moonslav59

SEA passed HOU for first in the ALW. The WC race, assuming HOU loses: 64-45 NYY (0.5 from BAL) 58-48 MIN 59-49 KCR 56-50 BOS -2.0 55-52 HOU -3.5 55-52 TBR -3.5 52-56 TEX -7.0 (-4.5 from ALW) The next few games gives us a great chance to gain on those around us, but the opposite could happen, too: 1 v SEA Off 3@ TEX 3@ KCR Off 3 v HOU 3 v TEX 4@ BAL 3@ HOU Off August 22

The post All Star Break Sox have not looked good, at all. The deadline came and went with nothing major happening, but some decent attempts at fixing the pitching staff with 3 rentals (Luis Garica, Lucas Sims and James Paxton) and a longer term try (Quinn Priester.) We also upgraded the catching depth with RHB Danny Jansen. We DFA'd McGuire, Chase Anderson and Brandon Walter. Yohan Ramirez was promoted and struggled in his first game. I have to say the "realistic" view is not all that rosy, but other teams have some major issues, too. That might be our best hope. This team has fought back, several times, this year. The pitching has been in decline, while the offense has been improving. There is not much evidence the staff will turn it back around and do well, going forward. I'm not saying it can't happen, but there just hasn't been any signs of life. Assuming Priester plays in AAA, to gain the 6th year of control, this will likely be the 26 (40): SP: Houck, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello, Crawford (Priester, Keller AAA) RP: Jansen, L Garcia, L Sims, Criswell, Kelly, Bernardino, Wink & Booser (Horn, Y Ramirez, Weissert in AAA) C: Wong & Jansen (Heineman) 1B: S Smith (Casas at end of AUG?) (Dalbec) 2B: DHam & Romy (Grissom, Westbrook) SS: Rafaela 3B: Devers LF: O'Neill/Refsnyder CF: Duran RF: Abreu/O'Neill DH: Yoshida (Valdez) AA: Wikelman 15 Day IL: Martin & Slaten 60 Day IL: Giolito, Story, Whitlock, Murphy, Mata, Perales Hendriks (end of AUG?) The farm got a bit shallower, but we lost no top 10 prospects, except maybe Yorke. We have our work cut out for us. Link: Part II: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20859-A-Realistic-View-of-2024-Part-II

Agreed. 12. Yorke (might have moved to 10-11) 13. Lugo (was up and down and likely topped out) 15. Paulino (was likely to drop to near 20) 28. Coffey (started making some noise) 29. Portes (just 19 y/o) 37. Zeferjahn (not sure he had much hope) 54. Y Vargas DFA #50 Walter

Anyone know why Mayer was pulled after 1 PA?

We lost some farm depth, but much of it seemed duplicated or destined for AAAA status. Portes and C Coffey still had some promise, but pretty far away. Lugo and Yorke were coming on, this year, but both seem destined to be DH/LF'ers, something we have way too many of. I had hoped for better returns, but we didn't really give up much. We should see some serious promotions to fill some of these gaps. Priester might be our #1 ML ready SP'ers on the farm, now.

To me, it seems the Kikuchi & T Scott trades were the only clear big overpays, but I'm not expert on these types of deals for prospects. I had hoped we'd get Flaherty. The tigers didn't seem to get much for him. The Fedde trade looked like a steal, to me, but I'm glad Brez mad e a real effort to improve our weakest areas: the rotation & the pen.

Sounds about right. I had Yorke and Lugo on the top of my to trade lists, so I was not surprised. C Coffey might come back to haunt us, but Portes surprised me. He could hurt, too. A 6 seems right. I wonder how close we came to Flaherty. Was Anderson traded?

Six get Luis Garcia! That’s a nice get. I had hoped for more, but this was a better try than Bloom. Dodgers got Flaherty.

Yup. I posted this earlier... On June 10th, he had an ERA of 4.43 and an FIP of 6.16. It's been 2.40/3.16 since then (15 IP 13Hits 7BB 17Ks 1 HR) .645 OPSA.

Arms are a huge risk, but we can't ignore adding some with crossed fingers. To me, trading for a younger pitcher is less risky than signing 29-30+ FA pitchers. Trading for a young pitcher is less risky than drafting one or signing IFA pistcher. Once a pitcher has been in the minors (or majors) our scouts can get a better read on their skill level and projections. Nobody can project injuries, but we need to add quality arms and hope enough work out. We are overloaded and bottle-necked with some positional players/prospects. We need to use our strength to improve our weakness: it's that simple. Making it happen is not easy.

So... Yorke, Portes, C Coffey, Paulino, G Batista & M Bolivar for Lucas Sims (RP), James Paxton (SP), Danny Jansen (RHB C) and Quinn Priester (SP likely to be in AAA for 2024.) DFA: McGuire, Chase Anderson and Walter Overall, I like the deals, especially the 6 years of Priester, but nothing really jumps out as a big addition for 2024.

We need 2-3 more, even if Sims does great. We had zero reliable RP'ers before today.

Josh Bell to AZ. No biggie.

Agreed. He should help. We need 2-3 more like him or better.

I have repeatedly suggested we trade Abreu for an Abreu clone who bats RH'd. However, I'd prefer we package him for a solid pitcher with 2.3+ years of control. Priester will be in AAA, so he should not count as a pitcher acquired for 2024's run. Sims had not been acquired, when I made my points. Paxton is barely better than Criswell/Pivetta, but he should eat innings. He was not the level of pitcher I hoped for: neither was Sims. The "lane" chosen was mediocrity. Full throttle. There is still time to change that, but like I said, I'm not expecting anything major.

Brandon Walter DFA'd to make room for Sims. No surprise.

To NYY: Mark Leiter Jt TO CHC: Ben Cowles & Jack Neely

Trevor Rogers to O's (makes me wonder if the Sox were in it to the end, and decided on Sims, instead.)

Trevor Rogers to O's (makes me wonder if the Sox were in it to the end, and decided on Sims, instead.)

He's pretty good, despite the high BB rate of 4.6 career and 5.7 last 3 seasons. He's a rental with a 1.2 K/9 over the last 3 years. He's 30. On June 10th, he had an ERA of 4.43 and an FIP of 6.16. It's been 2.40/3.16 since then (15 IP 13Hits 7BB 17Ks 1 HR) .645 OPSA. Portes was raising eyebrows, but you gotta give to get.

Yes, I left them out of the WC talk, but if they win the division, HOU AND SEA would both be in the WC race- not just one. We are 2.5 up on HOU and SEA, now, so both are very much in the WC race, especially since we play SEA two more times, and HOU 6 times. (TEX 6 as well.)

Lower level players are not in demand, like they used to be. Teams want ML ready or near ML ready prospects. It would be "selling low" on Bleis, Cespedes, Zanetello, Arias and others. I may be a homer, but I think our midlevel prospects are as good or better than most teams and should be enough to get us better pitching than Paxton. ML'er Valdez Meidroth Lugo Hickey Kavadas (We got Tommy Pham for Northcut) Jordan Castro (Gasper, Sogard. Alvarez, maybe not) I'd trade Abreu for a pitcher with 2.3 years of control.

I still think a Ref-Valdez platoon is better, but who wastes two roster spots on DHs? I'm happy Yoshida is doing well.

It's been a complete flip flop that actually began before the AS break but accelerated, then. The D improved a lot, but has dipped, recently.

Exactly. We have some bottle-necked everyday players- many of whom look best at LF and DH. I realize LF/DH types don't bring back the value their OPS seems to call for, but more deals like the Yorke one would help our longer term outlook with the staff. How many OF'er can we play, at once? Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, O'Neill >Campbell, Ref>Anthony, Lugo & Valdez Farther away: Montgomery, Jh Garcia, Bleis, Cespedes, Cason & Castro We are not strong at middle IF, but we have too much quantity: Mayer & Story DHam-Romy platoon is nice depth Campbell, Meidroth, Grissom with Valdez & Lugo in a pinch Farther away: Arias, Romero, Reimer, Cespedes, Zanetello, Anderon & Nunez We do not have the strength or depth at back up corner IF to trade any away. We do have some catcher/DH types behind Wong and Teel: Gasper, Jo. Garcia, Hickey & Brannon