moonslav59

Fangraphs now has DHam at a 1.0 fWAR in just 140 PAs. That's a 4.0 rate. Sox fWAR Leaders bWAR 3.1 Houck 3.0 2.7 Duran 3.6 2.3 Devers 2.1 1.7 Crawford 1.6 1.6 Abreu 1.9 1.5 Wong 1.6 1.1 Slaten o.5 1.0 DHam 1.3 1.0 O'Neill 1.0 0.8 Jansen 0.6 0.7 Refsnyder o.7 0.7 Criswell 0.0 0.7 Bernardino 1.5 0.6 Whitlock 0.9 0.5 Casas o.2 0.4 Bello 0.0 0.4 Booser 0.4 0.2 McGuire 0.6 0.2 Wink 0.0 0.1 Weissert, Martin, Keller & Romy bWAR 0.8 Rafaela

It used to, when we stayed near but below the line. I'm not so sure it matters, this year.

At one game over .500, we sit with the 12th best record in MLB, just... 0.5 from #11 SDP 2.0 from #10 MIN (currently the 3rd WC in the AL) That being said, we are also just 2.5 games ahead of #22/23 PIT & WSH. Lots of teams bunched up around .500 or 4 games below .500.

That is Bello's AAV and Tax hit number, not his actual 2024 salary.

If Houck wins the Cy Young, he may get a big first arb. Duran might get more than I think. How Crawford ends the season could determine a lot. I doubt McGuire gets a big raise, despite it being his last arb year. They don't look at CERA.

Still pre-arbs in 2025: Casas Wong Abreu Slaten Weissert Bernardino Valdez DHam Criswell Grissom Romy Basically, everyone except Devers, Story, Yoshida, Gio, Hendriks, Whitlock, Bello, Rafaela, Ref (option) and arb guys McGuire (3 of 3), Houck (1 of 3), Duran (1 of 4) and Crawford (1 of 4). That's just 13 of the 26. The rest are pre-arb. Our big 3 prospects will not even be Rule 5 in 2025! These are the Rule 5's: Angel Bastardo Alex Binelas Brainer Bonaci Bryce Bonnin Taylor Broadway Zach Bryant Allan Castro Brendan Cellucci Juan Chacon Nathanael Cruz Theo Denlinger Kelvin Diaz Hunter Dobbins Juan Daniel Encarnacion Albert Feliz Max Ferguson Richard Fitts Michael Fulmer Grant Gambrell Jhostynxon Garcia Bryan Gonzalez Luis Guerrero Francis Hernandez Nathan Hickey Gabriel Jackson Blaze Jordan Niko Kavadas Robert Kwiatkowski CJ Liu Eduardo Lopez Matthew Lugo Elih Marrero Tyler McDonough Tyler Miller Wyatt Mills Yordanny Monegro Juan Montero Wyatt Olds Eddinson Paulino Ronald Rosario Corey Rosier Reidis Sena Chase Shugart Phillip Sikes Karson Simas Adam Smith Nick Sogard Noah Song Luis Talavera Christopher Troye Tyler Uberstine Miguel Ugueto Brian Van Belle Diego Viloria Jacob Webb Jeremy Wu-Yelland Nick Yorke Ryan Zeferjahn

Houck and Crawford reach their first arbs in 2025, which are usually gross underpays. (Here is a chance to front-end these guys some cash by extending them to 1-2 years beyond their control years, but giving them more cash up front.) Duran is getting his first of 4 arbs, too. We have very few arbs, this year, and most are first years or for a guy like McGuire (3rd year of 3.)

Yes, but Bello's AAV is $9.2M.

2 groundball singles sandwiched around a HBP, then Schwarber rocked a dbl to the base of the RF-CF wall that cleared the bases. Basically, one big hit. Houck looked very good, to me.

True. The cots numbers include no arb costs, but it does include the $17M for player benefits and the estimate for rounding out the 40 man roster with minor leaguers. According to cots, it's about: $117M for Devers, Story, Yoshida, Giolito, Bello, Rafaela, Hendriks, Whitlock & Ref's option. That's just 9 players from the 26. $20M for player benefits, the 0-3 year bonus pool and a little for Hosmer. This brings us to about $137M before arbs, pre-arbs and 40 man roster salaries. The good thing is, many of our players are pre-arb and contributing. Here is a very early arb guess by me: 6.5 Houck (1st of 3 arbs is usually a gross underpay) 4.0 Duran (1st of 4 arbs) 3.0 Crawford (1st of 4 arbs) 2.5 McGuire (3rd of 3 arbs) 1.0 Dalbec (1st or 3 or non tendered) I could be way off, but this is about $13M added for arbs. That brings us to an even $150M for 13 players (14 w Dalbec.) That leaves 13-14 pre-arb players before any outside additions. I think their pay will average between $725K and $750K. $750 x 13= 9.8M. I'll call it $10M. With no additions, we'd be at about $160M. No Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, Smith, Anderson. We could fill all those slots with current minor leaguers to get to 26, and add $3M for the 14 players on the 40, but in the minors. Let's say we get to $163M. That would leave... $78M to spend to improve this projected 26 and 40 man roster: SP1 Houck SP2 ____ Crawford SP3_____Bello SP4 Criswell (Crawford) SP5 Fitts (Bello) RP1____ Hendriks RP2 Whitlock (Hendriks & move everyone down on slot) RP3 Slaten RP4 Bernardino RP5 Weissert RP6 Fulmer RP7 Booser RP8 Winkowski/I Campbell C Wong & McGuire 1B Casas 2B DHam & Grissom SS Story & Romy G. 3B Devers LF Duran & Ref CF Rafaela RF Abreu DH Yoshida 14 Minor leaguers, assuming no additions 1 from ICampbell/Wink/Booser and Perales, Wikelman, Horn, Uwasawa Heineman (or another catcher) + 6 Rule 5's: Bastardo, Dobbins, Guerrero, Jh Garcia, M Lugo & Yorke (Doubtful but take 2 from: Jordan, unless we nontender Dalbec, Hickey, Sogard, Castro, Paulino) Big assumption, but let's say we spend $77M. I'd spend it something like this: $27M SP $20M SP or $10M on SP and $10M on SS/2B (see RHB) $16M Closer $14M RHB (1B/DH/middle IF?) Do I think this happens? NO! I doubt we even come close.

I fully understand how spending big often fails, and sometimes very badly. To me, that does not mean never try again. We can't keep counting on finding a Houck, every year. We look to have at least 3 major holes, next year- some might say 4-5. SP2 Closer RHB 2B/SS SP3 We have seen what $5-10M/1 yr deals get us (and others.) We need to step up spending to have a real shot, and yes, we need to hit on some of our signings.

He's Vohnderfool.

I never realized Janssen was Swedish.

Yes, right after pitching.

We tried hard.

Gotta gain on MN for that WC slot. 37-32 MIN 35-34 BOS -2.0 33-35 DET -3.5 33-35 TOR -3.5 33-36 TBR -4.0 32-35 TEX -4.0 31-38 HOU -6.0 (KC at 40-30 might still be catchable. I doubt BAL is at 45-23.)

phright PHoo PHahr

Is Wink out of the doghouse, yet? 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 0BB, 8K Woo wins 14-1 w no HRs and just 3 2Bs. (18 hits and 8 BBs) Meidroth 1-3 w 3BB (.806) Sogard 3-6 Yorke 2-5 w BB Hickey 3-5 w BB Lugo 0-6 Alvarez & Heineman 3 hits each POR lost 8-6 Jordan 2-5 w HR (.797) Teel 2-3 w BB Campbell and Mayer 0-5 GRE won 8-5 Mullins 10K and o BB in 5IP (3H and 2 ER) Coffey homered and walked 3 times Bleis 1-4 w BB SAL won 12-6 Seems like the whole system was hitting, tonight as the 2 DSL teams combined for 15 runs.

Love it.

Fixed foreyew

Now, that was a sweet win. Very enjoyable.

Agreed.

Nola's ERA went from 2.77 to 3.48 vs the anemic Sox O.

Rumors of O'Neill's demise were greatly exaggerated.

This is the Sox offense?