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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Our advantage in extension talks is this: 1. Crochet is due about $3M for this winter's arb. Give him a hefty signing bonus and or start the extension in 2025 with significantly more than $3M. Let him start living the high life earlier than if he waits to free agency. (His arb, next year won't be a lot of money either.) 2. His lack of long term success and success as a SP'er is not a selling point. Sure, he can bet on himself and wait it out, but there has to be doubts. 3. His injury history is real and a concern, not just to us, but also to him and his agent. Signing an extension guarantees his family a sizeable legacy by taking the sure money. 4. Give him fair money for the 4-6 years beyond the two years of control. Don't short him, despite all of the above. Don't overpay, but don't pull a Lester. Let's say the fair rate is $27.5M/yr x 6. That's $165M + $3M arb +12M arb estimate comes to about $$180M/8. Offer $190M/8 and our AAV for taxes is just $23.75M. Even if we offer $200M/8, it's just $25M AAV.
  2. moonslav59
    I wanted Kelly, but not getting him is no big deal. Narvaez is a good defensive catcher, and we can find someone else, easily. Spend the money on pitching.
  3. moonslav59
    I think STL said no, but they may be rebuilding and he has 1 year left.
  4. moonslav59
    It's silly. Carson Kelly is not a significant target.
  5. moonslav59
    Are we really fretting over not getting Carson Kelly?
  6. moonslav59
    Soxprospects.com has the projected 26 man roster with 4 open slots for "acquisitions:" SP2 (Behind Crochet and ahead of Houck) Closer (with Hendriks and Chapman as the 8th inning guys) DH (with Yoshida starting the year on the IL) Back Up Catcher (with Narvaez starting the year in AAA) They have Campbell breaking camp as the starting 2Bman with DHam , Ref and Romy on the bench. Grissom, Mayer and Anthony are the notables placed in AAA. I think we'll get by without adding a DH and may go with Narvaez as the #2 catcher, but I hope we get a solid #1 or #2 SP'er and quality RP'er. Burnes and Estevez? Flaherty and Hoffman? Manaea and Scott? Trade for Casillo or Pablo Lopez or Jh Duran or Helsley?
  7. moonslav59
    I guess this Narvaez is the real deal on defense. After listening to the soxprospects.com podcast, I'm kind of excited. He's ML ready, cheap and has many years of team control. He hit 21 HRs in 627 ABs in AAA, so maybe we get some plus on O. (.247 BA but .371 OBP, but 196 Ks in 762 PAs is a bit scary.)
  8. moonslav59
    soxprospects.com was really talking up Narvaez on their podcast. They spoke of how Elmer Rodriguez was, at best, a RP'er who just "did not have the look" of a major leaguer." (Too skinny.) They think Narvaez might be top 30 to 35 on the next rankings. (Remember, 5 top 30 are gone.)
  9. moonslav59
    One thing that might get Crochett to sign an extension would be to give him more money on the front end than his arbs would get him- maybe even a big signing bonus. Starting it now would lower the overall AAV, which might help us down the line, but if the plan is to get close to the line, this year, maybe we want to wait to sign the extension, like we did with AGon, after that trade.
  10. moonslav59
    I heard the rumors of Casas to SEA are false. I also heard they are seeking a RHB 1Bman. Maybe some sort of 3 way deal can be worked out, but if it's for a SEA pitcher, it will be Castillo- not Miller or Woo. Time to move on to other names.
  11. moonslav59
    I never said we'd extend him at under $20M AAV. I'm putting the odds over 50-50 that we extend him mid April- probably earlier. We don't trade that package for 4 years. We never have.
  12. moonslav59
    The age and injury recovery factors are real and concerning, but to me, he has been dealing with injuries, a lot, already, so I would not say he'll be any worse over this latest injury. I think he was playing hurt for a while, so maybe in 2025, he won't be. Expecting age 32 to be better than 30 and 31 is not really logical. I think I just saw some nice stretches and felt like he could do it for 5-6 months, and not just 3.
  13. moonslav59
    HOU has been out of the Bregman racfor weeks. Their final offer was something like $156M.
  14. moonslav59
    Kluber and Richards were "healthy," too. I'd like to see more evidence that a guy is over an injury than 10 IP. Look, I understand getting a guy who seems very durable can backfire... lik Gio did, but I'm just tired of these type of additions, usually made to save a buck anot have to commit long term. I see how this is different from hendriks, Fulmand Paxton, who were on the IL when signed, and we knew they miss months to start the deal, but it's a personal thing: I'm hoping we add a durable and dependable SP, and it workout better than Gio did.
  15. moonslav59
    Agreed. The Cubs are about to get Tucker.
  16. moonslav59
    That's not going to change. I think his ceiling is an .800 to .825 OPS, but he has not done that for even 3 months in a row, yet, so maybe I am just wishing.
  17. moonslav59
    We need a pitcher on the healthy side of the spectrum. Our staff is already to have Whitlock, Giolito, Hendriks, Fulmer, Crochett, and Slaten missed some time, too.
  18. moonslav59
    Give me some of that advanced metric stuff!
  19. moonslav59
    The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith
  20. moonslav59
    Hmmmm. I have to admit, I don't know enough about Gil to have a strong opinion on this idea.
  21. moonslav59
    Flaherty might not have a long record of success, but he just turned 29, so a 5 year deal goes just to year 33.
  22. moonslav59
    Wow! This is very telling.
  23. moonslav59
    Nate did have some spotty success before the 2018 October. He had some so-so and bad years, too, but he was generally between 3.40 and 4.50 from 2012 to 2018. 4.10 w MIA in 369 IP and 4.45 w NYY in 279 IP. His FIP has always looked better: 3.57 w MIA and 4.11 w NYY. Personally, I'm exhausted from all the "projects" and "show me" seasons by good pitchers coming off a recent injury. As a 6th starter, okay, but you don't pay $16M for a 6 guy.
  24. moonslav59
    Talk him all you want- just move his ass to 1B. 66 of his 141 errors were throwing. That would be reduced, if he was our 1Bman and eliminated if he DH'd. He's been a minus in DRS, every season, but he has had some pretty steep variances. -4 to -6 four times -9 to -13 four times Even if Devers is no better than Casas at 1B, we break even there and gain at 3B defense by almost anyone else playing there.
  25. moonslav59
    The "getting better" was contingent on staying healthy, and when he was healthy, he did look like a 2.0 guy. Remember, DH's are sharply devalued by fWAR, due to positional subtractions. He can hit better than a 1.5 WAR guy. His bWAR has been 1.8 per 162. His fWAR has been 0.9 per 162. I was also addressing his "ceiling" not his projection.
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