moonslav59

I do think the "limitations" JH placed on Bloom & Brez (and even DD in 2019) are a major factor in our GM's lack of winter success stories, but I'm not so sure JH is demanding the GM spend more on everyday players over pitchers. As bad as our pitching has been, it seems strange (and wrong) that we continually spent way more on everyday players than pitching, starting the day after the Sale and Nate contracts were inked. We let Kimbrell, Kelly, Porcello, ERod, Nate and then Sale's contracts go without coming close to replacing their cost with new blood pitching. No new pitchers were signed for more than 2 years: $38.5M/2 Gio $32M/2 Jansen $17.5M/2 Martin $8M/2 Diekman Yes, we extended Bello ($55M/6), Whitlock ($18.75M/4) and spent $18.75M/2 on Barnes, but they were not additions or replacements. When you look at these above contracts alongside the $10M/1 on Kluber and Richards, $10M/2 on Paxton, and $7M on Wacha, $6M on Perez and $5M on Perez and Hill, you have to shake your head in disbelief, knowing they had to know this was no where near enough to even stay even with those we lost. Now, the money spent on everyday players after the Sale, Nate and Bogey extensions: $314M/10 Devers $140M/6 Story $90M/5 Yoshida (+$10M in fees) $24M/3 Kike (2 contracts added together) This makes me shake my head at the GM choosing to make everyday players a higher priority. The differential is not even close. Sure, the pitching money was spread out more- on shorter and less expensive deals, but you get what you pay for, which was mostly crap. We need to focus on more spending (JH) and more of a priority on pitching (Brez) as well as spending on the right pitchers (Brez.)

I think it is pretty close to 50-50, now, but for me, I have another year or two in me. I'm pumped up over our farm and young player base of everyday players. I think we have a decent core of cost-controlled pitchers that look like more and better the last few years. The staff is still far from top tier, but it is not totally bad. To say we are 4 major pitching additions away from being "good enough" is not putting a feather in the cap of our staff, but that should not (emphasis on should) be an impossible task, this winter. We are losing the contracts of Jansen, Martin and Pivetta, which total $31M AAV. We lose O'Neill's ($5.8M) and some partial payments for the rentals we just acquired and some scrubs, here and there, so maybe about $40M total. Assuming we spend no FA money on everyday players, we should be able to spend that $40M on pitching plus maybe another $10M and stay under the tax line. JH has shown he can set the bar lower, so this is no guarantee or projection on my behalf, but $50M should be there to spend, without paying a dime in taxes. If you figure our minimum needs for building up the staff are these, how do we do it? SP1 _____ ($23-27M AAV) SP3 _____ ($9-13M) Closer ____ ($12-16M) RP2 _____ ($7-10M) That is bare minimum needs, IMO and about $50-65M in costs, if added via free agency only. This also means no mistakes can be made in any of the 4 signings, unless someone like Hendriks, Fulmer, Slaten, Crawford, Bello, Criswell, Gio or ____ step it up, bigtime in 2025. I'm not going to count on that, although it is possible. So, the money supposedly available is not far from what could be needed, but that is assuming perfection in acquisitions of FAs. In reality, we will swing and miss on 1-2 additions, minimum, so we really need to look at adding 6 quality pitchers or 4 high quality (lower risk) pitchers and 3-4 depth signings. Here is where the money comes into play: either JH has to agree to go over the tax line, even if for one "planned year," or he has to okay or insist on a blockbuster trade or two significant ones to fill 2-3 of those 6 slots needed. To me, this makes the most sense, and while I am a big fan of farm building and homegrown, inexpensive talent joining the 26 man roster, in the next 1-3 years, I think we have some bottlenecks at everyday positions and not only can afford to deal some away, but have to do it. When I say I think trading Anthony makes the most sense, it is not out of any sense of not liking him or thinking he has the biggest chance at failing. I don't. I just see another LHB who plays OF, our strongest position in both quality and quantity and at low prices for the next 3-5 years. I just see our need at middle IF as much higher, and thus the need to keep Mayer and Campbell or Arias. I just see the catching position as being one of the hardest positions to keep a plus, and so keeping Teel makes more sense, to me. Although middle IF is still a high need area, especially if we plan to keep Rafaela in CF FT and due to health concerns on Story and maybe even Grissom and Mayer, I do think we could look at trading Campbell, Arias or Meidroth (who also plays 3B.) I'd like to keep the RHB, Campbell or Jh garcia, but we have to give to get, and Arias is probably too far away to bring back his value in trade, this winter. (Same with Cespedes and Bleis.) This basically boils down to a trade package or two that involves: Anthony Campbell or Jh Garcia Meidroth Fitts, Sandlin, Perales, E R-C or Dobbins can be added, because we would be upgrading our pitching by adding a pitcher with 3+ years of team control. Throw-ins could include: Hickey, Romero, Zanetello, Castro, Murphy, Wikelman and Jo Garcia I think one big package or two moderate ones from this list can get us 1 TOTR pitcher or 2 very good ones.

They can hold off DFA'ing Mata due to his injury. Smith needed to stay on the 26, so that was why he was the correct choice to go. I suppose we could have demoted Romy (.790) and DFA'd Mata, or Dalbec, or...., but Romy can play 1B, too.

The under 28 Rankings: 1. Devers 27 2. Duran 27 3. Houck 28 4. Anthony 20 5. Mayer 21 6. Teel 22 7. Abreu 25 8. Casas 24 9. Rafaela 23 11. K Campbell 22 12. Montgomery 13. Crawford 28 14. Bello 25 15. Cespedes 18 16. Arias 18 17. Whitlock 28 18. Slaten 26 19. Arias 18 20. Sandlin 23 21. Perales 21 22. Bleis 20 23. Wink 26 24. Sandlin 23 25. Fitts 24 26. Jo Garcia 19 27. Dobbins 24 28. Valera 18 29. Romero 20 30. Monegro 21 Others: Meidroth 23, DHam 26, Grissom 23, Romy 27 Criswell 27, I Campbell 26, Tolle 21, Paez 20, Cason 18, Early 23 E Valdez 25, Castro 21, Zanetello 19, E R-C 21

My top prospect list: 1. Anthony 2. Mayer 3. Teel 4. Campbell 5. Montgomery 6. Cespedes 7. Arias 8. Bleis 9. Jh Garcia 10. Sandlin 11. Meidroth 12. Perales 13. Valera 14. Tolle 15. Jo. Garcia 16. Fitts 17. E R-C 18. Dobbins 19. Romero 20. Monegro 21. Early 22. Paez 23. Cason 24. Castro 25. Zanetello 26. Mullins 27. Wehunt 28. D Reyes 29. Neely 30. Wieklman

Sox OPS (250+ PAs) .967 Devers .901 O'Neill .856 Refsnyder .855 Duran .843 Abreu .795 Yoshida .790 Wong .713 DHam .707 Smith (DFA'd) .705 Rafaela Others (under 250): 1.012 Jansen .831 Casas .790 Romy

Don't look, now, but Yoshida is nearly at the .800 mark.

JH should just hire Thunder.

Jansen should be given a medal.

Priester pitched a gem in Woo's 3-0 win. 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 0BB, 1K Meidroth 3 BBs Bobby Dee 2 rbi POR won 8-2 as I Coffey pitched well. 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 1BB, 9K Another gem with GRE in a 1-0 win. Wehunt 5 no hit innings (1BB and 6K) SAL won 6-2 in what looked like a pen game.

You may not think $140M/6 is not expensive, but was the 4th highest FA contract given out in Sox history and $30M more than the next one (JD at $110M/5.) Look, I'm not arguing JH is spending more than he was before, but he is still spending.

Think of how many guys like him never get to sniff the bigs. I hope the Domer does well.

Great D.

I was a huge Sale fan, but 5 years of waiting and what ifs tired me out. Then, when I kept seeing us sign injury-prone pitcher after injury-prone pitcher the whole concept of "hope and prayer" rotations sickened me. I was not a Gio fan, but I did expect us to at least get 28 starts and 170+ IP. We are snake-bitten.

I forgot we even traded Kavadas. Let's see how he does in the bigs.

They might have made the deal, expecting (or hoping for only) 140 IP and a 3.80 ERA. Certainly Sale is in another class of pitchers like Richards and maybe Kluber, although Kluber had several great seasons, but without knowing the name, had someone said the Sox signed a pitcher for $10M who had this record since 2019, who would have been thrilled? 5 seasons 298 IP (avg 60 per season) 58 GS (about 12 per season) 17-18 record 4.16 ERA 3.56 FIP FYI: Kluber's previous 5 seasons before we signed him: 496 IP (99 IP/season) 88 GS (15 GS/season) 3.72 ERA 3.46 FIP Richards: 199 IP and 41 GS 3.53 ERA 3.86 FIP Paxton: 333 IP and 63 GS 3.98 ERA/3.59 FIP Weird how the best SP'er we signed had these previous 5 year numbers: 535 IP & 99 GS 4.51 ERA/4.49 FIP (Wacha)

D Smith DFA'd. He did pretty well for us. Thanks.

I lived in Milwaukee, when the Pilots moved to Milwaukee and became the Brewers. I lived a couple blocks from the old County Stadium and went to several games. I became a huge Tommy Harper fan, and when my family moved to Portland, Maine in the early 70's, the Brewers traded harper to the Red Sox. I switched to being a Sox fan and never looked back. (I'm still a Packer and Bucks fan.) Thanks for taking over and keeping this site active.

We do have numerous hopes- not just 1-2 promising pitching prospects, but it is worrisome we don't have nationally ranked pitching prospects. The one who was the highest was Perales, who was always hurt even before this latest TJS injury. We do need a lot to go right- maybe not everything, but a lot.

Devers began his contract, this year. It's the biggest contract in Sox history. Yoshida's began, last year. Story's began the year before. We've seen 3 big contracts in 3 years. The problem has been two-fold: 1. We don't spend big on pitching. (We've cut $40M from our rotation in 5 years, combined.) 2. Other teams have begun spending wildly more, and passed us in the rankings. It's not only about JH not spending as much. I'll add a third point: our spending has not worked well (Story, Yoshida, Gio, Kluber, Richards, Barnes, Kike II...) CB Tax numbers: 192 in 2017 239 in 2018 244 in 2019 185 in 2020 208 in 2021 236 in 2022 226 in 2023 (208 projected for 2024) This does not look like some sort of massive budget cutting, to me, but again, I'm not supporting what JH has been doing, recently. We could have and should have spent more. Maybe we will agaiun: maybe not. It does look like other will.

Are you encouraged by Dobbins and E R-C?

We've already seen a change in focus on the farm. I'm not going to dispute your claim about JH needing to go for real change to occur. I've seen him wobble between spending and cutting several times, before. This is, by far, the longest stretch of austerity under JH, especially with the pitching, but it's not like he has totally stopped spending- just with pitching. I'm not hopeful he will start, anytime soon, but nobody knows if he will or won't.

I'm always for obtaining a TOTR SP. I'm always for having plus SS defense. (2B and CF, too, and C & RF to some extent.) With our middle IF being our weakest area outside of pitching, I like the idea of keeping Mayer over Anthony and or Teel.

Thanks for taking over, when needed.

Isn't it easier to just trade for a .500 OPS SS with a great glove? They are a dime a dozen.