There are a few teams that have really good farm systems OR a nice core of recently graduated young players who have proven they belong in the bigs. The Sox are maybe one of just a handful of teams that has both, despite the lack of a solid young core of pitchers to build around.
To me, it is so obvious what our next step should be, and the when to do it the only debatable point. We need to build up the pitching staff. Perhaps we have already begun building the farm staff, but we cannot wait to see if we've done a good job. Even if we have done a good job, the wait would be 3-6 years from now, anyway. There are two major ways to significantly build up a ML pitching staff, with waiver wire, minor league deals and Rule 5 as long shot methods.
1. Free Agency: We will likely have to just bite the bullet and spend more, and not just on the rotation. Just replacing Pivetta, Jansen & martin in kind, will not be nearly enough. We spent about $6-12M a year on the rotation from 2020-2023, and the $19M spent on Gio was offset by paying for Sale to play with ATL, so the "big spending" of 2024 was a mirage. We've beaten JH to death, several times over this, and deservedly so, but it will be very hard to have a better staff, next year without spending more and spending correctly. The "correctly" aspect is often quesswork, and we've done pretty poorly in this area, but this is Brez's second winter coming up, and he should have a chance to redeem himself.
2. Trades: Here ie where I am adamant about the need to make a big splash. We have a few very strong positions with a bottleneck of talent- young and inexpensive talent that many teams would die for. Some teams are very good at developing young pitchers, but lack solid everyday players, at low costs. We need to find those teams a strike a deal or two. We also have some useful midtier depth players, who may be weak in one area of their game (many of defense.) We could find some teams to trade us some useful pitching depth, in exchange for these limited role players. Noting fancy, but something to give us mid season depth, when we know we will need it, eventually.
We also need to stop counting on players returning from the IL to give us a boost. It seems like every season, we fall into the same trap. We skimp on deadline deals, because we have hopes in guys like Hendriks, Martin and Casas returning and returning to glory. It never seems to happen.
That being said, I do think we have a few pitchers that can fill some meaningful roles on the 2025 pitching staff, but not the ones they needed to fill, this year. If we can count on Houck to step up his IP and be a solid 2-3 SP'er, not our #1, we should be okay. We should count on Bello as a 4-5, not a 2-3. We should count on Crawford as a 5-6, not a 3-4. We should not count on Gio for much, but certainly not as our #1. Being our #2 is asking for trouble, too. We need an ace. To me, we need an ace and a solid #3, as well as 2-3 minor league SP'er depth signings like Criswell was, last winter. I know that is wishful thinking, but we could trade for one major pitcher and sign another, then make some mid-tier trades for added depth, ending up with this:
SP1 ____
SP2 Houck
SP3 ____
SP4 Gio
SP5 Bello
SP6 Crawford
SP7 Criswell
SP8 _____
SP9 _____
SP10 _____ (Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Mata, Murphy)
Closer _____
RP2 Hendriks
RP3 _____
RP4 Slaten
RP5 Whitlock
RP6 Winckowski
RP7 Kelly
RP8 Booser, Bernardino, Fulmer, Weissert, I Campbell, Mills, Horn
That's 4 major additions to the staff, while losing 3 (Pivetta, Jansen & Martin.)
I can't see us doing much better without at least 4 major pitching additions.