moonslav59

So fitting.

Is "questionable" better than known god-awful? Is Pinto any good on D?

The O's DFA'd catcher Rene Pinto to make room for Morton. I don't know much about him, or the catcher the Dodgers just DFA'd, but I wonder if Brez is kicking some used tires.

If you knew what most ownership groups are doing, you would not have much to spend on.

Only 4 of the top 13 CFP rankings won and 5 of the top 16. Of course 4 and 5 of those losses were to other top 13 and 16 teams, but maybe these guys didn't really get it right. The 18-22 teams went 6-0 and the 18-25 teams went 8-1. #6 OSU beat #1 Oregon (who beat them earlier) #5 ND beat #2 Georgia The SEC is 8-6 in bowl games, but their top 4 teams are 1-3. The Big 10 is 8-5, and their ranked teams are 5-2, with one loss vs another Big 10 team. Independents are 3-0 and the American Conference is 6-1. The MAC is 4-2.

I inched them up a slot or two based on your expert opinion given in previous posts.

I was thinking that, today. DET got Torres. The Yanks got Fried. AZ spent unexpectedly on Burnes. It seems this would be an "afterthought" signing or one to try and get JH & Co back into the good graces of fans who are disgusted by his 6 year, tight wallet. Bregman was not in my top list of FAs I felt were a good fit. Now that we added 2 SP'ers, all the SP'ers on the board are off limits to Brez, IMO. I doubt we sign Scott, and I have little hope we add a second tier RP'er, so it comes down to just a handful of players that fill a need. Only Bregman fills 2 needs (RHB & 3B defense, if we actually sign him to play there.) Alonso fits the RHB need, but he'd crowd the 1B/DH role, already loaded up with Casas and Devers (1B) and Yoshida, Ref, Casas & Devers (DH.) Santander fill the RHB problem, but wants too many years and play OF- our strongest position. I won't be pissed, if we sign Bregman, unless they announce he'll play 2B. I'll be happy JH decided to finally outbid someone on a "real" FA big shot, but when you look at all the "so close" signings from the past few years, Bregman does not strike me as the "one we had to get."

I can't see Bello or Gio sent to the pen. I doubt we go with a 6 man rotation, and if we do, it won't be for long. While Crawford started all those games and killed his IP personal best, he had a better WAR in '23. The bombs ruined his chance for a great season.

The Dodgers, who else? signed Hyeseong Kim to $12M/3. They DFA'd former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya (Sox interest?) O's sign Charlie Morton to a Soxesque $15M/1 deal.

I'm comparing our #6-10 SP'ers to other teams, not to our 1-5. I admit I don't know how good other teams' rotation depth is, but I'm thinking ours is better. In 2024, Houck and Criswell were "depth." That was not our weakness. It was our 1-5. I'm not sure we go with a 6 man rotation, but even if we do, I'd still count Crawford as depth, since a SP'er going down would mean we go to a 5 man.

Okay, but when Penrod was added to the 26, we still had a few guys at Woo on the 40, and they chose a previous AA pitcher over giving them a look-see.

Crawford is our #6, then Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and maybe Fulmer. To me, our rotation depth is better than most teams and maybe top 10. (Wink & Whitlock could be included in "depth," too.)

I could be wrong, but isn't the 14th out of 15th ranking for positional players including defense? I doubt we are 14th in batting, but they don't list fielding. I'm not sure. We were tied for 10th in all of MLB in wRC+, last year. We were 11th in fangraph's batting ranking in '24. I don't see losing O' Neill dropping us 10 slots. We should gaing more games played by Casas + Story than O'Neill played for us (113.)

I agree. I was just speaking about the #2 ranking in the AL on pitching. I think we are top 5 in the AL, but maybe 10th to 12th overall.

We have some RHPs who do better or the same vs LHBs. I just don't think Wilson is all that good, anymore. We may add another RP'er by oprning day, too.

We need health for the pitching to be top 5, but on paper, I think it is. (remember, top 5 out of 15 AL teams, not 30 MLB teams.) BOS: 4.8 Crochet, 2.8 Houck, 2.5 Bello, 1.8 Crawford, 1.4 Buehler, 1.2 Giolito, 0.8 Chapman, 0.6 Hendriks, 0.5 Whitlock, Slaten & Wilson Look at the pitching by other AL teams. (projected 0.5+ pitchers listed, only) NYY: 3.2 Fried, 3.1 Cole, 2.8 Rodon, 1.8 Gill & Schmidt, 0.8 Stroman, 0.7 Cruz & D Williams, 0.5 Beeter, Leiter & Hamilton SEA: 3.5 Gilbert, 3.3 Kirby, 2.8 Castillo, 1.9 Miller, 1.8 Woo, 0.8 Munoz, 0.6 Santos, 0.5 Brash DET: 5.0 Skubal, 2.2 Olsen, 2.0 Cobb, 1.6 Mize, 0.6 G-Long & B Hunter, 0.5 Maeda, Vest & k Montero KCR: 3.6 Ragans, 2.8 Lugo, 2.3 wacha, 1.4 Marsh, Bubic & Wright, 0.7 Erceg & Haivey MIN: 3.6 Lopez, 3.4 Ryan, 2.6 Ober, 1.4 Paddock & Festa, 1.1 Duran, 1.0 W-Richards & Mathhews, 0.9 Jax, 0.7 Stewarts, 0.6 Sands, 0.5 Varland HOU: 3.7 Valdez, 3.2 H Brown, 1.7 Blanco, 1.2 L Garcia & Arrighetti, o.9 Hader & McCullers, 0.8 Abreu, 0.7 Wesneski, 0.6 Pressley CLE: 2.5 Bibee, 1.6 G Williams, 1.5 Beiber, 0.9 Clase & C Smith, 0.8 Cantillo, ).7 Lively, 0.6 L Ortiz TBR: 3.2 McClanahan, 2.4 Bradley, 2.2 Pepiot, 2.0 Rasmussen, 1.5 Baz, 1.2 Litell, 0.6 Fairbanks BAL: 2.8 Eflin, 2.7 G Rod, 1.3 Kremer, 1.1 Bautista & Povich, 0.7 Suarez & Akin, 0.5 T Rogers & Cano LAA: 3.1 Kikuchi, 2.1 Soriano, 1.7 Detmers, 1.1 Anderson, 0.9 K Hendricks, 0.7 Kochanowicz, 0.6 Joyce OAK: 2.2 Springs, 2.0 Severino, 1.5 Miller, 1.4 Sears, 1.0 Spence, 0.6 Ginn & Bido, 1.5 Basso CWS: 1.3 Martin, 1.0 Burke & Cannon, 0.9 Shults & Thorpe I find it hard to project 5 teams with better pitching staffs than ours, on paper. Many have big or bigger question marks than we have with Gio, Buehler, Hendriks & Whitlock.

I do think all 3 show some promise, but need to step up a notch or two to win the job FT. DHam needs to hit LHPs to win the FT job. He is currently good enough vs RHPs and on D, and his baserunning skills give him a decent bump up, if he lacks a little vs LHPs. Grissom needs to improve his defense (or prove it at 2B.) He also needs to prove his offense from earlier in his career was not a fluke. Romy is a bit of a wild card. His bat could take off, or continue to be a question mark. His defense seems fine, but does not have a large sample size at 2B. He seems more like the ultimate utility guy who can play 7 positions, pretty well, while not killing you on offense. Campbell looks like the only all around talent, but is unproven at the ML level and isn't even on the 40, yet. Between these 4 guys, I'm confident one will rise to the top, and do well enough to not make 2B a hole, or a decent platoon situation will prevail. I kinda like a DHam-Grissom platoon, despite the poor projected defense by Grissom vs LH'd SP'ers, which is not a whole lot of games, thankfully.)

According to soxprospects.com, these are the only Sox players with zero options remaining: Story, Refsnyder, Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson. On this list, only Wilson may end up not deserving a 26 man roster slot. Refsnyder could get squeezed, if we add a RHB, especially someone like Grichuk. It gives Brez and Cora a lot of flexibility, and we may see a lot of ups and downs between BOS & WOO. The fact that none of our top 3 prospects, all deemed "ML ready" or "near ML ready" need to be on the 40 man roster creates an interesting scenario, as the season unfolds. It is entirely possible none are on the opening day 40, and they should not be, unless they are on the opening day 26. None should be added, unless the plan is to play them nearly FT at the ML level. The extra year of service timing could also be a major factor in when they are added, if at all. We know JH is a miser, these days, and that extra year of "cheaper" cost may mean more to him than we can imagine. To me, if we end up DFA'ing Wilson, I won't be surprised. Trading Refsnyder should only happen, if we solve our issues vs LHPs. Ref is a top 20 batter vs LHPs in all of MLB, over the past 2-3 seasons. His inability to play a position well makes it tough, since we also have Yoshida in the same situation. Together, they make a nice DH platoon, but keeping 2 DH only players on a 26 man roster seems very odd and wrong. They can both play LF, in a pinch, but taking up 2 out of 13 slots on the 26, when 2 catchers are also needed, really constricts Cora's choices. 2 of the 4 bench slots are filled by a catcher and a DH. It helps to have super utility guys like Rafaela (CF, 2B and RF, with SS in emergency situations) and DHam (2B, 3B and maybe SS) or Romy (all positions, except C.) To me, Grissom is limited to 2B and 3B, and he has yet to prove he can defend either one, even at an average skill level. I'm going to assume two minor moves are made before opening day: Abreu & Refsnyder are traded for a Catcher and/or RP'er, and we sign Grichuk and a RP'er or Catcher- see Abreu/Ref trade(s.) That leaves this 26 man roster on opening day: C: Wong & _____ (Narvaez in AAA- Zavala as non 40 man depth) 1B: Casas (Romy) 2B: D-Ham- Grissom platoon (Sogard AAA & Campbell as non 40 depth) SS: Story, Romy (Sogard AAA & Mayer as non 40 depth) 3B: Devers (Romy, Grissom) Campbell & Eaton as non 40 depth LF: Grichuk (Duran) Sogard AAA CF: Duran, Rafaela (Anthony) Campbell as non 40 depth RF: Anthony (Rafaela) Sogard AAA (Campbell as non 40) DH; Yoshida (Casas/Devers) Jh Garcia as AA depth and Hickey & Jordan as non 40 depth Rotation: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (AAA: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and Fulmer, Drohan, Gambrell as non 40 depth) Pen: Chapman/Hendriks, ______, Slaten, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero>Whitlock (when healthy) AAA: Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Bernardino, Shugart and non 40 depth ICampbell, Mata, W Mills, A Adams, J Adames, H Harris, N Davis and others.

Yes, added to the 40 but not "had to" to the 26.

The sample size shows, to me, that nearly everybody is better than DHam at SS defense. OAA 2023-2024: 11. Story +10 (projects to top 4-5 with more innings) 24. Yu Chang +4 (very limited time and long gone.) 48. Romy +1 (2 teams) & Sogard (tiny sample) 81. Reyes -1 (adios) 120. DHam -6 (out of 135 players on the list) DHam has played over 520 innings at SS (about 2/3 of his total in MLB) and has over 1900 innings at SS in the minors. He is not good on D at SS. I think it's very safe to say he sucks there. Romy's sample size at SS is small (116 innings in MLB out of 973 total.) If he was real good at SS D, you'd expect more, so I get your point. In the minors, he did play more SS than anywhere else: 841 SS, 712 OF, 233 2B, 141 1B, 87 3B. In college, he played mostly at 3B, then 2B with only 11 gms at SS. Point well-taken, but I give the nod to Romy.

2nd in pitching is encouraging and maybe not far from the mark. 14th in batting seems a little low, but it's hard to project younger players with 1-2 seasons of doing well under their belts. It's nearly impossible to predict how good the 3 AAA Amigos will do, or even how much they will play in MLB's 2025 season. Another major factor, as always, is injuries. Devers played hurt for part of 2024 and missed time, at the end. Casas missed almost 100 games. He could be our 2nd to 3rd best hitter. Story has 163 games played in 3 seasons. When he did play, he hit at an 89 OPS+, but he could end up being a RHB force at the plate and on D in 2025. Hard to know. Just staying healthy will be a plus- maybe a plus-plus. Yoshida may still have his best season in him, as he missed much of 2024, too. Losing O'Neill looks like a gut punch on the surface, but better health, alone, can and should make up for his loss. (BTW, he missed serious time, too, and he also went through some rough patches, including with men on base.) Here is the other part: so many of our batters are young or very young. Not all follow a bell curve, but one usually expects general improvement as they near or enter prime. I may be a homer, but I like how a DHam- Grissom/Romy platoon looks at 2B much more than half the innings played at 2B in 2024 by EValdez, Westbrook, Reyes, Gasper and Wong. The three I mentioned are 23-27 years old. While it's hard to project how well 23 year old Rafaela and 25 year old Abreu will do in their second full season at the MLB level, I can't see why we should expect regression over progression. If we end up using them in some sort of platoon, I think we can be optimistic about a very nice output. Duran and Devers just entered prime. In theory, they can and should get better. Wong is now in prime, too, as is Yoshida & Story. Nobody is past-prime. While I've lost hope on Wong's defense, many catchers don't reach their prime on D, until age 29 or later. I'm hopeful, he realizes he needs help and is working on that area, this winter. The defense at corner IF remains horrific, and will likely not improve, unless some pieces are shuffled. Our OF defense looks spectacular, especially if Rafaela plays more and stops making dumb errors. A middle IF defense by Story and DHam is a plus, something we have not seen in many years. I see it like this in the AL: Boston should finish: Top 5 in pitching and baserunning Middle 5 in batting Bottom 5 in defense Total it up and maybe we end up 4th to 7th best.

Most likely not, but I listed them as outside shots. Certainly, we can't "count on them," now. Penrod made it from Portland, in 2024.

To me, it's like FIP and BAbip, stats you use often. I do think fWAR counts more for awards. If the race is close, I think bWAR can be used to make the final call.

Romy does give us better defense at SS, as a back-up, and can play 1B & 3B, but I'd put Romy in AAA to start the season. DHam's speed and good D at 2B make him a good platoon for Grissom. Now, if Grissom is looking like a FT'er in ST'ing, I can see going your route.

Yes, they both have their uses. fWAR can also show that a certain pitcher should have done better (or worse) than his bWAR showed. That could tip the balance in a tight award, if the players are tied or near tied in bWAR.