moonslav59

My point was that nobody is totally off limits, if a team offers more value in return. I exaggerated the return to make a point, but why would you refuse any deal that gives back just slightly more value than we give, especially if that value is in an area of greater need than the Sox OF?

I don't love the guy and hate what has happened the last 2 years and the Betts mess 4 years ago. I've gone through many worse stretches than this as a Sox fan and never hated the owner or GM. JH did a ton for this team. I don't see it as resting on past glories. Am I pissed at what's going on, recently? Hell, yes! But I don't hate the guy who brought a joy to my life I thought I might never experience. When we won the second ring, I was like, "Lord, take me now!" Two more rings followed, and now we have seen a 6 year stretch with one playoff stint and maybe 2-3 seasons where we started the year thinking the team was good enough to compete. I don't see this as the end of the world. This is not even close to being as bad as the sell off of the mid to late 70's team. The 30+ years I followed the Sox as much, if not more than any Sox fan in the world, of constant disappointment and despair. A few gut-wrenching heartbreak endings to seasons. I'll take the last 2 decades of the previous 3 decades any day of the week. Now, this is not giving JH a get out of jail free card. My appreciation can be outweighed, at some point. To me, it is not now. It might not even be after 2025, if it looks like we are still on the right track. If we had a farm like we did in 2019, I might be at that point now, but we don't. I'm cutting him some slack. I'm not happy doing it. I don't want him thinking I will be, if we have another near .500 season, either. Maybe it just takes more than this to rise to what some are calling "hate."

One thing that went okay for the Sox, this year was our middle IF depth. While it's easy to point to the poor defense by Rafaela and DHam at SS and EValdez at 2B, DHam played good D at 2B and was not bad at SS. The offense depth did better than expected. Romy is at a .747 OPS, right now, which beats the MLB average OPS of .721. DHam slipped to .698 but stole 33 bases in 98 games played. E Valdez struggled badly, early in the season but hit .813 after June 1st. These numbers are not great, but certainly better than expected.

Agreed. I'm not sure how good the number 12 team is, and teams do improve and get worse as time goes by, but I'd agree that ND does not belong in the top 12, right now. I'm not sure if 15 is too high or just right, but I would not say it is too low

If you look at the MLB OPS over the last 20 years, you'll see a couple very distinct periods of low numbers: .720 in 2011 (5th worst) .724 in 2012 (7th worst) .714 in 2013 (4th worst) .700 in 2014 (worst) .721 in 2015 (6th worst) and .706 in 2022 (2nd worst) ,734 in 2023 (11th worst of mid range) .712 in 2024 (3rd worst) Two of the worst 3 years have been within the last 3 years. Looking at 2024 individual OPS numbers, the sample size needs to be 300 PAs or more to reach 270 batters (30 teams x 9 batters.) The number 135 batter has an OPS of .720. The bottom third line begins at .690.. The bottom 9th is below .650. When I see numbers this low, I can't help but think about Rafaela and his .670 OPS. This places him around #200 to 210 out of 270. That is firmly in the lower end of the 7th of 9 tiers. Devers, & O'Neill are top 1/9th Duran, Ref and Abreu are 2nd 9th Yoshida & Wong are 3rd 9th (That's 7 players in the top 3rd tier.) DHam in the 6th 9th Rafaela in the 7th 9th If you look at just OBP: Ref & Devers top 1/9th Yoshida, Duran and O'Neill 2/9th Wong in 3/9th (6 in top 3rd) Abreu 4/9th DHam 6/9th Rafaela bottom 9th

Yes, there is a major flaw or two with OPS, but there is with K rate by itself, too. I've always said something like 3 x OBP + 2 x SLG/ 5 would be much more telling. Anyway you look at it, the "contrived" OPS number is more telling than any traditional stand alone stat.

Not all.

last 7 starts by Crawford: 6 with 3 or less ERs allowed, but never less than 2. (6 HRs, but none today.)

Blinded by the light Revved up like a deuce You know the Romy in the night

Hate is a strong word, especially to the owner who led us to 4 rings.

No doubt, there is a strong correlation. Yes, we notice there are not many players with high K rates, who also hit well, as in also have high OPS. I'm just saying I look for players who have high OPS and like them. I look at those with low OPS and usually dislike them, unless their D outweighs their poor O. I just don't look at K's, first. I'd rather have a .780 batter with 150 Ks than a .740 batter with 75 Ks (same amount of PAs.)

No circumstance? Anthony for Miller and Woo? You'd say no? Montgomery for either one? No?

Casas added over 60 points to his OPS in one game. He's over .800, now. I can't help but feel like we will lose game 2 by 1-0 or 2-1 score.

K's never bothered me, if the guys are hitting and or getting on base and scoring runs. We've fallen off a cliff. I'm not sure what the issue is.

Last Day of the minor league regular season

One can overlook a 29% K rate of the guy hist .820 and plays near GG defense.

It is very likely an Astros pitchers is traded this winter. Much might depend on their choice to keep Bregman and or Tucker, and at what cost. If they keep both, Framber may be on the block. They had so many pitchers on the IL and a few who did well in their place, that when everyone is expected to be healthy to start 2025, someone has to go. Verlander will be a FA, so we could assume he goes, especially if it comes down to only being able to keep him or Framber. The Astros are known for letting big stars walk (Springer, Correa, Cole...) Here is a look at who they have going into 2025: Framber: 1 arb left (made $12.1M in '24) 27 GS 2.85 ERA McCullers: 2 x $17.7M ($17M AAV) always injured and certainly trade bait. (28 GS in '21 w 3.16 ERA, 8 GS since.) Javier: 3 years left on deal at $43M/3 and $12.8M AAV ('22-'23: 56 GS and 3.59 ERA/112 ERA+) Urquidy- 1 arb left ($3.8M in '24) '21-'22: 48 GS 3.81 ERA Luis Garcia (The other one) has 2 arbs left (career 63 GS 3.61 ERA/113 ERA+ at age 26) Hunter Brown: pre-arb (29 GS 3.57) Ronel Blanco: pre-arb (28 GS 2.88) Spender Arrighetti: pre-arb (27 GS 4.68) JP France: pre-arb (23 GS in '23 at 3.83 ERA) That's 8 SP'ers- 7 if you want to throw out McCullers.

CBS Sports has ND ranked 15th, after yesterday's games, saying their defense is the main reason. They have Louisville 16th, so I guess we will find out, if we are ranked too highly, as we play them this weekend. These ranking need to be taken with a few grains of salt. I don't see any of the 14th to 19th ranked teams as being easily identified as better than the others. 14 LSU, 15 ND, 16 Louisville, 17 IA St, 18 Clemson, 19 Illinois, 20 OK. I do think #10 Penn St, 11 Michigan, 12 Utah and 13 USC all look more deserving than ND at being top 15 or making the top 12 list by season's end, but in college football, a lot can happen over a season, including major injuries to teams above you or a change in QB or QB performance level. I'm not predicting a great season from ND or even a playoff berth, but I'm not so sure that by season's end, ND might be pretty close to the #12 team in the nation. It's not an impossible situation to develop. Just beating Louisville might get us to 12th or 13th, already. That's not to say we can't lose to another bad team, or get blown out by USC, but there is some hope we can improve. As is, we are not a top 12 team, now. Top 15 is maybe too high- maybe not.

Not in a personal sense, but nobody spoke of disliking him, when the rings were piling up.

While I toally agree that trading away Betts was unacceptable, unforgiveable or even worse, it's not the first time JH & Co. let some big stars walk or traded them away. Okay, none were as great as Betts, but many were great. The difference is, we kept winning after they left. Nomar Manny Pedro AGon Lester Beckett To a lesser extent: D Lowe, Ellsbury, Damon, Papelbon, Beltre, Mueller, Youk and Lackey The harsh reality is that not only did we fail to come close in replacing Betts, but we also never replaced Kimbrell, Porcello, Price, and later ERod, Nate, JD, Bogey and others. Nobody can replace Betts, but a team can try to improve 2-3 positions to try and make up for the loss. Dugo and Wont (Downs) fell way short, and we never even tried to significantly upgrade elsewhere to make up for those shortcomings. While I am not on the dump JH bandwagon, yet, I fully understand those that are. To me, a few of us saw the writing on the wall back in 2018. We expected great difficulties in maintaining a great team with so many stars all reaching free agency in a 2-3 year window, and a farm that seemed like it was not nearly good enough to replenish enough slots that were sure to open up. I never bought the argument that it would be simple to replenish the farm, quickly, while also expecting JH to greatly expand the payroll from the point of already being #1 or 2 almost every year. I never expected teams like the Mets and Padres, along with the Dodgers and others to go this nutty with their spending, but even if they did not, things were bound to get very difficult for any GM the Sox chose, or even if they kept DD under the same budget constraints and farm situation Bloom was handed. I fully believe DD would have traded Betts, too. He nearly did in 2019. Of course, JH has the money to match some of these nutty spenders, but honestly, I never expected him to do that. This is not letting him off the hook, because he could have spent more to keep us competitive and chose not to do so. The redeeming value in this 6 year lull (or 5 of 6 years, if you count 2021 as a reprieve) is that our farm is now light years better than it was in 2018. Of course, that value is all speculative, but when a team has so many top prospects, it's almost impossible for all to fail. I'm giving JH another year. This is not saying I expect him to be listening to me or the (up)roar from Sox nation that he is at a make or break point, in terms of watching the dump JH bandwagon become an 80%+ Sox nation wide wagon, but I do think we are much closer to being a top contender than many here seem to be. The question is, do we take the steps necessary to get to that point, of does JH choose to punt to 2026 or worse- never take the plunge, again. I simply cannot believe we go 2 more years without making a big splash trade of everyday players for a top pitcher. That seems like too much of a no-brainer to not happen. I'm afraid JH might think 2026 is a better time for that splash, but maybe he realizes the fanbase is already over their limits of patience. (maybe not.) Some seem to think he is likely not reading the room or is reading it but cares very little for that. The budget seems to get all or most of the attention, but to me, the willingn ess to allow a big splash trade or two is equally important. If we make one big splash trade, without a swing and miss, I could imagine is not spending much more than 2024 and being able to fill the other holes to a point where we can compete in 2025. If JH agrees to spend up to but below the line, I think it would be very possible to build a winner, again assuming a big splash trade, too. Maybe my pink glasses are overpowering.

It's a Catch 22 situation. We are doomed, if we don't improve our pitching. Anthony is the one guy who could be traded to greatly improve our pitching. Do not trade Anthony at any cost. BTW, I do think Fitts and Priester plus maybe Dobbins are MLB ready. It is their skill level that is in doubt- not their readiness. What I'm afraid of is that JH & Co. views one of these three as our 5th starter on opening day, instead of being the much needed minor league rotation depth than are viewed as the 7th through 9th starters on the depth chart, or possibly 6th through 8th, if we add an ace.

Yes, I realize that, and now that they are closer to being a contender than we are, the notion seems very far-fetched. Plus, I would not trade 5 years of Anthony straight up for Skubal, unless he agreed to a decent extension, but it would also take more than just Anthony to get him. Talking Skubal seems like a foolish thing to do. I agree.

The scary thing is we basically HAVE TO count on both to play 145+ games. Our back-up plans are questionable, at best. 1B: Wong or Romy? LOL (who catches?) Devers to 1B and Campbell/Meidroth at 3B (or Story/Mayer at 3B?) SS: No way can we use Dham at SS, again. Make Rafaela the FT SS and let him learn on the fly? Mayer, a guy who seems to be injured as much as Story? Campbell or Meidroth? It's not pretty, if either goes down, again.

I'd love to have Soto, but I agree. The only way I see this happening is if we trade Anthony for a top pitcher who costs just arb money. Even then...

You can always find a comp that exposes the downside of having hopes in a top prospect, and it's not a bad point to be made. None of our prospects should be annointed as a "savior." I think in Campbell's case, some of us may feel he can or likely will be "that guy," simply because we NEED HIM TO BE THAT GUY, which is not a logical thing to think. We are so bad vs LHPs, and look to be losing O'Neill, this winter, that we instinctively look at who offers the best hope, and Campbell jumps to the front of a mangy pack of wannabees. Story offers some hope. Wong could improve on O, but is never going to carry a team on offense vs lefties. Rafaela may never repeat even this year's offensive numbers. Refsnyder has been great vs LHPs, but is talking about retiring. At most, we have one more year of him. All this being said, I still have a lot fo faith in Campbell and more than I do in Mayer or Teel. I'm also pretty sure a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B would not be bad, and should be better than what we've seen at 2B for over 5 years. (Stories health is crucial, as well.) I think we simply have to count on Campbell + Grissom/DHam to take care of 2B in 2025 and beyond. We can't spend resources on trying to fix 2B. Choosing to trade Campbell, instead of Anthony, Mayer or Teel might end up being the best choice, and maybe this is what you are getting at, but I have Campbell second only to Anthony on my avoid trading list. (I have no list for no-trade players and never have.)