moonslav59

Of course, the odds are better with higher picks, but once you get past the first 5-8 picks, it kind of becomes more of a crapshoot.

Some suggested just that, or to play Schwarber in LF or 1B for 1 year. The Sox scouts obviously saw something in Yoshida that not many (or nobody else) saw. He did show signs of being a mediocre DH, this year, but at $18M a year, that rings hollow.

That 15:1 ratio does have some competition in MLB history. Since 1925 (last 100 years,) here are the worst BB:K ratios of any MLB player with 500+ PAs in a season: 13:162 T Anderson '17 (1:12.5) 9:96 Ivan Rod '07 (1:10.7) 15:150 Rafaela (1:10) 11:93 I Rod '05 (1:8.5) 9:80 Strange Gordon '18 (1:8.9) 15:113 Alex Gonzalez '99 (1:7.5) Nobody had more Ks and a worse ratio than Rafaela, except Tim Anderson.

I was thinking the same exact odds. If he's healthy, and looks good in ST'ing, I'd say close to 100%, but if he looks shaky, they may start the year with Whitlock or Slaten closing. Does anyone have much faith in any returning pen arms beyond Slaten, Whitlock and Hendriks? (Maybe Fulmer?) To me, this would be a very nice 8 man AAA bullpen/ML depth group: Kelly, Bernardino, Guerrero, Penrod, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Shugart The sad part about this list, is that 3-5 of them will be on the opening day pen roster. (Maybe Fitts, Criswell or Priester could begin in the pen in April.)

As much as we need a big RHB, I don't think we should spend a penny on O'Neill or anyone else on offense. Maybe a back-up catcher. We have a few options: 1. Put all our faith in Refsnyder (a top 20 batter vs LHPs in the last 3 seasons) and the return of Story. Maybe a bump up from Rafaela, Wong or the call-up of Campbell. Call this the in-system solution. 2. Trade Abreu and or DHam for a RHB with similar attributes and add this guy to the pool listed in #1. DO NOT take any money away from signing pitchers to help the offense. NOT-A-DIME!

Fansided projects: 1. Alabama, 2. Texas, 3. Ohio St, 4. Tenn, 5. Penn St 6. Miami, 7. Oregon, 8. MO. 9. Georgia (1 loss), 10. Michigan 11. USC & 12. Ole Miss (one loss) 13. LSU 14. ND 15. Clemson

Yoshida was one of the few Sox batters who did well after the ASB, and even had some huge hits.

We had a $22M DH, when Schwarber was a FA. I think finding another comp would make more sense. One that was signed after 2022. Also, Bloom & Co. wrongly assumed Yoshida was a LF'er not a DH, hence the Turner signing. (We ended up needing Turner at 1B.)

I'll do even better: July 17 to today (in order of most PAs) .853 Duran .727 Devers .823 Yoshida .620 Rafaela .694 Wong .756 Abreu .861 O'Neill .781 Casas .727 Romy .810 Refsnyder .613 DHam .629 Jansen .658 Sogard .790 Story .729 Grissom

The end of the season sucked- no doubt. There were a few fun things to watch, over the last 2.5 months, but in terms of winning, we sucked. We were basically a .500 team up to May 30th (28-29.) Then, all cylinders started firing, at the same time, and we went 33-22 from May 31 to July 5th and 38-25 to the ASB (July 14th.) The wheels came off, all at once, too. We've gone 27-38 since the ASB. Just horrible (again.) Many of us went into this season looking at it like it was a year to evaluate our younger talent, to see who we could count on going forward, and who we might want to move on from. I think we found out a few good things, a couple bad things, and left a few questions unanswered. We found out Duran is the Man. Wong sucks on D, and we are not sure about Story. We found out Abreu & Ref make a great platoon, our back-up catcher sucked and Rafaela needs work on O. We found out our middle infield now has decent depth, but no plus-plus guy and Mayer is a giant Q. We found out our farm is loaded with ML or near ML ready prospects, but Perales got hurt, again. Our pitching prospects remain a big question at best and scary at worst. We found out Houck can go 6 IP and pitch a full season at a solid #2 level. We found out Gio was no help. We found out Crawford is still a question mark, but at least can start 33 games. We found out Slaten looks pretty damn good, but several pen arms sucked. We still have about 10 question mark pen arms that all look like they should be in AAA to start the 2025 season- yes about 8-10 of them. We go into 2025 with few questions, but more impactful ones: Who is our ace, and if it's Houck, who can be a solid #2? Who is our closer and top 2 set-up men? (Who will be the 4-8 pen arms?) Do we stick with Rafaela? (Do we trade Abreu?) What top prospects might break camp with the big team on opening day? (By May? By July?) Who is our 5th starter? How long to we accept horrific defense at corner infield? Do we keep paying $18M to our DH to be an average hitter? Most of all, will JH spend more, the same or force yet another cut?

Did anyone expect Rafaela to finish 3rd in PAs on the Sox (568?) He's also 3rd on the team in TBs (210) How about Abreu banging out 50+ XBHs (3rd) in 443 PAs (6th on team,) while playing plus D in RF. This was not expected: 317 PAs from DHam (8th), 278 from D Smith (10th), EValdez with 220 and the most at 2B of any Sox player. Romy got 216 PAs and Story ended up with over 100 PAs. Runs + RBI-HRs 164 Duran 142 Devers 130 Rafaela 104 O'Neill 102 Abreu

Refsnyder will not retire. Priester to start the last game of 2024. A win leaves us right at .500 and in 3rd place. A loss leaves us at 80-82 and in 4th place, behind TBR. We are currently tied for the 18th best record in MLB (and 11th worst.) TBR & SFG. Sox OPS, after today... (100+ PAs) .870 Devers (83 RBI led the team) .847 O'Neill (31 HRs led the team) .835 Duran (48 2B, 14 3B, 83 XBH, 34 SB led team) .830 Refsnyder (.941 v LHP) .805 Casas (Need 550+ PAs in '25) .785 Abreu (Was over .800 for most of 2024.) .764 Yoshida (Not bad.) .758 Wong (Top 5 OPS in MLB for a Catcher) .734 Story (Showed some signs of life on O) .723 Romy (Pretty good for a 4th stringer/ .879 v LHP) .698 DHam (33 SB in 98 gms) .660 Rafaela (75 RBI is T 2nd on team)

fWAR 4.2 Kirby 3.8 Gilbert 3.7 Burnes 3.5 Kikuchi 3.4 Fried 3.2 Flaherty 3.1 Snell 2.8 Miller 2.5 Nate 2.3 Castillo, Taillon, Woo 2.2 Bassitt 2.1 Severino 2.0 Pivetta 2023-2024 8.5 Kirby (6th in MLB) 7.2 Burnes & Snell (15th) 6.9 Gilbert 20th 6.0 Kikuchi 25th 5.7 Castillo 28th 5.2 Fried 35th 5.0 Flaherty 38th 4.7-4.9 Nate, Crochet, Miller, Bassitt

#1 Texas won big. #4 Alabama beat #2 Georgia 41-34 #3 Ohio St beat up on MSU. #6 Ole Miss lost to KY #7 MIA FL squeaked by Va Tech Assuming Oregon wins and Utak comes back to win, tonight, here is my top 15 after week 5: 1. Texas 2. Alabama 3. Ohio St 4. Tennessee 5. Miami FL 6. Penn St. 7. Georgia (1 loss) 8. Oregon 9. Utah 10, Missouri 11. Michigan 12. USC 13. Ole Miss 14. Notre Dame 15. LSU/Clemson

I think you way undervalue Abreu. The other two, I don't expect much back.

I think Luis Castillo was a way better pitcher, when traded, than Crochet is, now. I know SEA gave up a lot, but not a Roman Anthony, or even a Mayer. I'm fully prepared to give to get, but I'd want a Gilbert or Kirby for Anthony, or a Miller for Mayer. The 2 years turns me off. If they'd take Abreu, DHam and Wink for Crochet, I'm all in. Maybe add Dobbins.

I guess it's fitting, the best we can be is 81-81.

#6 Ole Miss lost to Kentucky. Some other top 20 teams came close to losing, like #12 Michigan 27-24 over Minnesota. USC and ND are in close games, right now. #2 GA plays #4 AL, later.

I think the CWS will certainly ask for Anthony, but I doubt any team offers them more than Mayer, Wink & Abreu. That might even be too much to offer. Crochet only has 2 years of control left and only one good season under his belt- and under 150 IP, at that.

Looks like Crawford ended up on a sour note, after such a promising start. (4.26 ERA) 2.17 ERA/ 2.91 FIP First 10 games (2.89/3.10 after 11) 3.86/ 4.67 GS 11-20 (4.26/5.82 GS 12-22) 6.41/6.60 GS 21-30 He had a really bad 6 start stretch: 8.89/8.62 Counting today, he'd have a 2.95 ERA, if you take out those 6 starts.

Anyone in mind? Most young ones are not free agents or available in trade.

Me, too. He also had that spat and was demoted, early inn the season. I think we trade Abreu, DHam and Wink for the best we can get.

The PR situation in Boston is a mess. Adding Bauer would not change much. You can't get much worse than the worst. For a team that has constantly used smoke and mirrors as its pitching acquisition plan, I say, why not? He'd be cheaper than his upside talent level, and that has been the Sox mantra since 2019.

I think I'd rather have a healthy Whitlock as the closer and Hendriks & Slaten as the 1-2 set-up men. Fulmer offers some high end upside, but I hate counting on 2 guys to come back from long IL stints (Hendriks & Fulmer.) It's like we are moving our SP acquisition plan to pen arms, Sign injured pitchers and roll the dice.

I realize this, but the second part of Bloom's role was to find lower cost players that produced over their pay grade. He had a few hits: Pivetta, Schreiber, Refsnyder and Arroyo for a couple years. A few one year players did okay to fine, like Wacha, Hill, Strahm and the one year we had Renfroe, but mostly, he failed miserably with the Tampa Bay Way. I'm not sure Brez will have the tight budgets Bloom had for 4 years, but yes, you are right. Brez has young players- many still pre-arb and no stars like Betts, Bogey, JD, Nate, Sale and others coming up on big payday years. Losing Jansen, Martin, O'Neill and Pivetta pales in comparison to what Bloom had to watch walk out the door, then try to replace with a shoe box budget. The years of control on our core players is in great shape, and so many are pre-arb or year one arb players that his budget will not have the same stresses Bloom had. If we knew JH would spend big, again, this would be great news, but it may end up just being a way for JH to make more money, instead. I'm not pinning my hopes on JH opening up his wallet, again, but in reality, if we keep our budget about the same, we should still get a lot better, starting in 2025 and maxing out around 2027, unless prospects like Arias, Cespedes, Perales, Bleis, the Garcia brothers and others jump like Campbell did. I have to think the unbalanced nature of our 26 and 40 man roster, as well as the top farm prospects towards everyday players will be addressed, this winter and maybe beyond. The Dugo for 3 pitchers and Yorke for Priester deal could just be signs of more to come. Adding Slaten, Sandlin, Criswell and I Campbell may help, too. I'm very optimistic about our extended future, despite my trepidation over the continuing tight budgets.