moonslav59

Crochet is 25. If the extension begins in 2025, he'll have 2 arb years built in at ages 26-26 and 26-27, as his BD is in June. His age makes it so no real comp is out there.

100%. Get it done on the two.

Agree. Just gibe him the $500K more.

An Abreu-Rafaela RF platoon looks great, to me. A more complex rotation like this works, too, if Yoshi is the FT DH: LH: Duran v R/ Ref v L CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L RF: Abrey v R/ Rafaela v L We could flip between the two platoons, giving ref some time at DH, when he's not in LF. REF needs to start every game vs LHPs. He is clearly our best bat vs LHPs.

If he plays LF, because we upgraded 3B defense and kept Devers and Casas in the lineup as a 1B/DH time share setup, I'd be okay with the downgrade in LF defense. Yoshi and ref would be essentially replacing O'Neill's playing time in the OF- no great glove, there. Duran would play CF (Rafaela, when he rests,) and an Abreu-Rafaela RF would be a great defensive set-up for CF and RF/

Actually, $170M/6 is $28.3M or about 33rd highest, but if we link it to buying out his arb years, it would be more like $190M/8 or $23.8M AAV- 80th highest in MLB history.

The plan might be Campbell, plus those others returning to the line-up (Story, Grissom and more from Ref.) Casas has been one of our best LHBs vs LHPs, so maybe he helps, too, and word is that Anthony has decent splits, too, as a LHB. Wong has had reverse splits, so maybe he flips that, this year. These guys have to improve vs LHPs, or they should never start vs them: Career .514 Abreu .539 DHam We did trade E Valdez (.327 v LHPs) Romy is .802 vs LHPs and Grissom is .727 vs LHPs. Story is at .963, but that was mostly from long ago.

Yes, that's right, he starts '29 at '29, but turns 30. I'd still push hard for one more year (opt out at age 31.)

Even if we decide to stay under the tax line 1, we have about $31M to spend, according to cots. Scott might cost $16 x 5 or $17M x 4. Bregman's price is hard to project, but maybe it's $27M x 7 or $25M x 8. Maybe the cost drops, if this goes on much longer. We could get both and easily stay below the second line, but not the first. Scott & Grichuk, yes. Bregman and trade for a cheap RP'er, yes. Word is now out that Cora is okay with Yoshida playing some OF. We could sign Bregman and trade Abreu for a real good RP'er and go like this: 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 1B/DH 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida- R Refsnyder LF 7. R Campbell 2B 8. L Anthony RF 9. Wong C Bench: Rafaela, Narvaez, Yoshi/Ref, DHam/Grissom/Romy The pen would add a strong piece from the Abreu trade.

He'll be 29, after 2029, and will turn 30 that following June. 3 years added is nice, but I'd push really hard for that 4th year that brings him to age 30, even if it means offering more cash or bonuses...

Cora on Yoshi playing OF... “Yeah, our outfield defense was great last year, but in a perfect world, if he was healthy, he was going to play the outfield,” Cora said, as relayed by Cotillo. “The throwing part of it wasn’t there so that’s the reason he actually didn’t play. Hopefully, we can get him there and we can use him in the outfield, too.”

Padres are open to trading their closer, Robert Suarez. He's almost 34 and has 3 years left on his deal ($10M, $8M, $8M) and $9.2 tax line. At that age and cost, the return should not be that hurtful.

That's for sure, but what does he consider fair, is the million dollar question.

True. Between no expected extension, wanting to move Devers to 1B and his injury and injury history, it does make sense, but when you see what some good 1Bmen are getting as returns in trade, I'm not so sure it's worth it. Yoshida really messes us the perfect transition to DH by Casas.

Bregman may be the Boras blunder for 2024. I hope his price and/or years drop. It was a little encouraging to hear the language change on "waiting" to maybe tell Devers about a position change until they are "about" to make a kove. I realize others want Scott, but this is not a $200 or $750M auction.

ST'ing a month away and several big names still on the market. Not many are fits for us, but some are.

The consensus by a few of us seems to be $170M/6 years. I had mentioned $200M/7. The opt-out is a big issue, if he insists on one. I'd give $180M/6 or $200M/7 with no opt out at all. I might give $170M/6 with an opt out after 2029 and or 2030, giving us 2 or 3 more years of control, but there is no consensus on this. (I had mentioned after 2028, but that does seem too generous to Crochet.) If Crochet was a FA, right now, I'd be thrilled, if we signed him to $200M/8, which is essentially $20M/2 for his 2 arb years and $180M/6 for the next 6 yrs. An AAV of $25M is doable for JH & Co, but that assumes it starts in 2025 and buys out his $3.8M 2025 arb year. Give him some more front end money to make him happier and increase the actual worth of his contract, maybe... $7M in '25, $18M in '26, $, $25M '27, then $30M x the last 5 years

To steal a notin idea: Seam Murphy is owed $15M x 4 with a 5th year team option at 415M w no buy out. His tax hit is just $12.2M x 5. A straight swap of Story (owed $22.5, $25, $25 plus $5M buy out= $77.5M/3) with a $23.3M tax line. Maybe we give them $16M over 4 years to just about even up the money, but we'd save $6M a year on the tax line. We'd fill our catcher need and our reliable RHB with some power. This would totally rely on Mayer at SS with Rafaela & Romy as the only real back-ups, until Romero & Arias are ML ready. Sign Tanner Scott at $68M/4 or $80M/5. I think this would turn us into a top 3-4 AL team. 1. L Duran LF 2. R Murphy C 3. L Casas 1B 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Campbell 2B 6. L Anthony CF 7. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder DH 8. L Yoshida DH/ R Rafaela RF 9. L Mayer SS Bench: Wong C, Rafaela/Abreu, Refsnyder/Yoshida and one from DHam, Grissom or Romy SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, bello, Giolito, Crawford RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero or Weissert

I think they tend to look at recent 2-3 years numbers more than just the last season, but Duran trumps Crochet in that area. Age should matter, but Duran is not past prime: he's actually at peak prime, now. There should not be regression projected due to his age. I can see projecting better from Crochet as he moves up towards primes, but other Sox player who are pre-prime didn't get the same treatment (see DHam and Abreu.)

It is a big step to take to view him as "the chosen one." So many pitchers in MLB have shown glimpses of "great stuff" or great "metrics," and never amounted to jack. I fully realize I am taking a big leap of faith, and some of that is based on the fact that I am convinced JH & Co. are not going to outbid anyone for fully established FA players getting 6+ years and mega bucks. To me, Crochet represents out best hope at striking gold, $170M/6 is about what Story got-adjusted for inflation. $170M/6 is not Price money. Price was "the chosen one."

When you figure we are a bottom 5 defensive team, you have to think that is a significant factor in dropping that ranking to 14th. We might be 14th or 15th in defense and somewhere between 8th and 11th on "batting" plus "baserunning." The Sox have a lot of younger everyday players, as well as our share or more in injury-prone players that make projections difficult. It's hard as hell to project Story's value, even if you know he'll be 100% healthy. Devers was on pace for a career high OPS, then got hurt and finished with his 4th best, although it was his 2nd best OPS+. They dropped him 22 points, despite being in his peak prime year in 2025. Duran's score is puzzling to many people, not just Sox fans. Granted, Wong, Abreu, Rafaela and DHam have to be scored with caution, To me, casas is all about health. He's gonna rake, if healthy, and he will suck again on D. Projecting the impact of our 3 top prospects is all but impossible. I think I can safely say, no MLB team has the ability to more greatly outperform these projections than Boston. I like our offense. I might rank (AL only) our areas as such: #1-2 Rotation #9-10 Pen #13-14 Defense #5-6 Offense #2-3 Baserunning Last year, we finished T3rd in OPS and T5th in wRC+. We lost O'Neill (.847 in 473 PAs,) but we also lost... .706 in 278 PAs Dom Smith (10th in PAs) .633 in 223 PAs (12th) EValdez (most PAs at 2B) in 158 PAs (14th) McGuire in 96 PAs (17th) Jansen in 93 PAs (18th) Dalbec in 75 PAs (20th) Cooper Just Smith & EValdez had more PAs than O'Neill. The other all combined just about equalled the lost PAs of O'Neill. I'm guessing O'Neill represents about 30% of the PAs we lost. Of course, it matters just how many more PAs Casas gets, otherwise, it's Romy or Wong replacing DSmith-Dalbec-Cooper. How well DHam-Grissom-Rony do at 2B matters a lot on how much they can improve on EValdez, Reyes (.451 in 64 PAs) Campbell offers a lot of upside potential, but I have to think a DHam-Grissom/Romy platoon at 2B can greatly improve on the .533 god-awful 2024 2B OPS. We could easily beat that by 200 points and more than make up for the loss of O'Neill at just one slot. Our 1B OPS was .734. I think we can safely project Casas can beat that by 100 points, if healthy. We might lose 100 points in RF (.888 to .788 w Abreu & Rafaela.) Our DH hit .765. It's hard to project great improvement, there. 3B was .774. I can see adding 75-125 points there. SS at .761 might stay even. We may drop at C (.723.) LF (.768) and CF (.729) may end up close to that, depending on Duran and Rafaela's progress

If Crochet was a FA, this winter, what do you think he'd get? $170/6? Less? Sure, we'll know more in 2 years- for better or worse, but I think $170M/6 is fair for 2027-2032. My guess is Grochet would say no to that, or he'll take it with an opt out after 2029 or 2028.

How many arb years did Strider and Greene have "bought out?"

I assume your offer is with no opt out.

It's not a total apples to apples comp, but there are some strong similarities: both are/were largely unknowns and untested. (Yamo was totally "untested." ) Teams had to project his value, just as the Sox have to try to project Crochet's value- just not starting now, but instead from 2027 to whenever. Much of Yamo's projections had to be made beyond year 1 and two, as well. Yamo got way more, precisely because 30 teams could have signed him, Only one team can sign Crochet, right now. If we don't extend him, that changes after 2026. When using Yamo as a comp, nobody is suggesting we give Crochet "Yamo money." So, we are adjusting for the difference in situations. It is a huge risk, as notin and others have pointed out, but this is not a risk placed on a 30-31 year old pitcher. notin's Sale comp was apples to oranges, too, as Sale was actively showing health concerns, while Crochet's injuries were in his past. Crochet will be just 27 when the extension kicks in, not 30 like Sale was. Giving him one more year than Sale is risky, but his 6th year will be at age 32, while Sale's last year was age 35. Seriously, which contract is more risky? It's hard for anyone to know, but I'd bet on the younger arm, and it is a "bet." It's a big gamble. I've been saying for years that we need to identify someone we think is "they guy" and do what it takes to get and keep him. We missed on keeping Betts and chose Sale/Nate/Devers, instead. It looks like we might have chosen Soto, but got passed by Cohen and the Mets (assuming it wasn't all a sham.) We haven't really bet big on anyone, except Price & Devers, I guess Sale and Story come close, but they are not super large and long guys. Counting inflation, the offers we are suggesting for Crochet are pretty close to Story and Sale money, but Crochet's age tips the balance to me.