moonslav59

Rafaela's fWAR ranks him top 60 in MLB, this year. I can understand people not liking or trusting WAR much, but can it really be that far off. 2 players from each 30 teams makes 60. How can a guy who is top 60 "suck?" Hell, top 120 or 150 don't suck. Maybe 120 to 180 are okay or barely above bad, but even they don't suck.

It can some, but I doubt 2 bad plays means 2 DRS lost, let alone an 8-10 drop. He was at +10 in 540 innings from 2023-2024. He's at -1 in more than double the innings, this year. If you prorate the '23-'24 numbers, he'd be at +20, meaning he dropped 21 DRS.

Even if you go by his fWAR (1.0) in 2024, he was ranked 210th in MLB. That is bottom 7th tier out of 9 players per team. He's still a starter in MLB. I get how you want better than a bottom 7/9ths player to have a winning team, but many teams win with starters worse than that. Combine 2024 and 2025 and his 3.9 fWAR ranks 107th. If you say there are 270 players counted as starters in MLB, he's better than the median guy at 3.4. That's the median! That's not "He sucks category" or even close!

Seems right, but probably not Skenes for another year or two. I think Ryan is about the best we can get via winter trade. Anthony and Tolle are not going to be in any suggested offer by me, but I'll listen on others. If I gave up Duran or Abreu plus Campbell, I think I might want somebody else added, but I might say yes. They probably want a pitcher or two. Keller is the guy PIT would trade, due to his salary and age. I'd be thrilled to get Ryan and Keller. Abreu, Clarke and Sandlin for Ryan. Campbell, Mullins & Yoshida (+$10M, making his cost $26M/2) for Keller (owed $55M/3)

Yes, one can slice and dice to make almost any point. I'm fine with .702 for a GG type CF with some baserunning value added. So, to me, I'd just count 3/27 to 7/18 at .793 for a proper sample breakdown. .793 in 345 PAs .491 in 133 PAs I am concerned that this is the second season he has slumped near the end of the season. Last year, he was at .477 over his final 95 PAs. I'm not trying to make him out to be a plus on offense. He's streaky- kinds like JBJ was. He K's too much and walks too little. He has poor plate discipline. I don't think anyone denies these facts. The facts are also that the league OPS has fallen, while his has improved. The norm is not about .720 and he is at .709. If he ends up ayt .690, I'll worry more about next year, but I'd still have him firmly pencilled in as my FT CF'er for all of 2026.

Not for a SS. Story has had over 500 chances, this year. 2 plays does not move him from a DRS or +10-15 to zero.

I'm assuming this is a hypothetica question based on our current roster and situation. For a GG type CF'er with baserunning skills? Maybe .650 to .675, but it depends on who else is an option to play CF and OF. Abreu is on the IL, but let's assume all are healthy and hitting about what they are, now. I would not bench a .600 Rafaela, so Yoshida can DH, instead of Duran/Anthony. This could be what the choice boils down to. If we still had Devers as our DH and 1B and 2B issues solved, and it came down to 3 OF slots and Duran, Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela to choose from, I'd platoon a .600 Rafaela with Duran or Abreu, but never play him over Anthony, unless he was over .850 (and Anthony would pay over Duran and Abreu). Vs RHPs, I would not start Rafaela over Duran or Abreu, unless he was over .775 or maybe more. I'd use him as a late inning defense for Duran. Rafaela has very close L-R splits, this year and career. (Career, he actually hits RHPs better.) The way Yoshida is hitting, I may never bench Rafaela, even if he hits .500 the rest of the season. If Yoshida gets back to his .790 norm, then maybe .600-.625? It's notan easy call.

Out of 17 players with 100+ PAs, 9 have a higher OPS+ than Rafaela (one is Devers) and 6 have worse. Even if your focus is 90-95% on offense, which is questionable, there are others to pick on, more often.

Nobody is saying he is a plus on offense. And again, you focus on recent numbers by a cherry-picked date that only is chosen to aid your point. You call Wong and DHam blackholes, but they have good to great OPS since the same date you picked for Rafaela. Please explain why the criteria changes so easily? Rafaela is at .773 since May 27th. It's a larger sample size, but select chosen recency matters more for him than DHam, Wong, Lowe and others, apparently.

We have-- more games won by this date since 2021. I think we all agree the roster looks way better than the one he was handed. If you don't want to bow, then tip your hat.

When 1 is cancelled, we all are!

One interesting fact about this 2025 team is just how much the depth has carried us in many cases. We saw some failures, like Toro, after a nice start and DHam, until recently, as well as Newcomb and a few others on the staff, but have a look-see: Narvaez was the back-up catcher to start the season: he is 7th in catcher fWAR at 2.6! Toro did okay at 1B for a couple weeks, then was really bad- Lowe seems to have righted the ship. KC was the opening day 2Bman. Mayer looked okay, but then got hurt. DHam has been awful, until recently. Mayer did well, when Bregman got hurt. Our DH's have not taken up the slack left by the Devers trade. Our OF depth has been off the charts (Anthony, namely.) Houck was our #2, Crawford maybe the #5, Dobbins the #10 or so, and Sandoval was supposed to be our 4/5 by August. Gio missed some time. We've done okay with SP'er dpeth, but traded away Priester. Our pen depth has been sketchy, but even if you take away Chapman & Whitlock, the rest of the pen has a better ERS than our starters, as a whole.

It's hard to know if Rafaela will continue improving on his K rate and BB rate. If he stays as he is, it will be hard for him to improve on a .710 OPS- not impossible, but hard. Consider this: of the top 15 batters on the Sox by PAs, 12 have a higher K% than Rafaela's 19.2%, but him striking out is apparently killing the team. (8 players are nearly 5% higher or more.) He does blow most away in his low BB%: 4.6 Rafaela 4.9 Toro (DFA'd) 5.3 Story 5.7 Romy 6.2 DHam (Yoshida is 4.4 and #16 in PAs) Last year, the gap was a lot wider: 2.6 Rafaela 5.6 Romy 5.7 Wong 6.1 Grissom 6.4 Yoshida

Solving the middle infield problems and depth issues would go a long way towards reaching that worthy goal. Easing the OF logjam could also force the need to not take Rafaela out of te OF, because the options to replace him are worse than the choices at 2B or SS.

Nobody likes watching a player on their favorite team swing at balls 2 feet out of the zone. We all wish he could hit better. We have differing opinions on just how low a batter can be, before he becomes a net negative value to a team. Maybe that has to do with how much value you are willing to assign to defense and base running. If Rafaela falls far below the norm on batting, maybe he can become a net negative player. Right now, he is far from that, IMO and the opinion of bWAR and fWAR.

If Rafaela is a blackhole because of recency, then DHam and Wong are not. Our 1B position is no longer a Toro-fueled blackhole, either. Just pick one criteria and stick with it consistently.

Even if he stays at .710 and plays GG type defense, runs well and provides decent middle infield depth, something this team has needed for nearly a decade, he's a clear plus player. WAR agrees by a landslide.

I know his OPS has been falling, recently, but why not apply "recency" to DHam, Lowe and Wong. If that's the criteria, then they are not "black holes." His offense is not an asset. I'm just saying he's very near the league norm and above the league CF norm on O. If that's "defending him," then so be it. BTW, .720 to .740 is above the league norm, and I thought you projected worse than that back earlier in the season. It was only after he was reaching near .795 that you raised your projections to slightly above the league norm and still said he sucks on offense. Maybe this is just semantic: to you average sucks, and being great of defense apparently doesn't change his overall value enough to pull him out of the sucking category. He doesn't suck, even just looking at offense. He is .010 below the league average OPS. Maybe you will end up gloating over a .700 or sub .700 end of season mark. Maybe not. He's proven one thing: he's streaky. He also seems to hit better when not in the infield.

Brez deserves more than a bow.

He has improved, a lot. (See my post on 2023+2024 vs 2025.)

The thing is, we are not sure he'd be a better hitter, if he tried to change his approach.

So many players explod eor fall off a cliff after 600 PAs. Dalbec was over .800 at the 600 mark. Rafaela seemingly failed to improve on his disciple all the way through is rise in the minors. He got labelled for being a high K/ low BB player, and rightfully so. One thing I look at is how a player is trending and how old they are. Over his first 660 PAs (2023-2024) he had a bad K rate of 27.1%. Many batters were worse, including some on the Sox. His BB% was a near worst 2.9%, and his K:BB ratio was among the worst in MLB history. Those two seasons confirmed what many felt he'd be, going forward. Then, he turned 24. His 478 PAs in 2025 is a pretty large sample size, and he's has shown some very positive improvement in both of the areas of major concern. His K rate went down to 19.2%. That's an almost 30% improvement! More importantly, his BB rate went up to 4.6%. That's nearly a 60% increase! Nobody know if he will continue to improve, stay at his current levels or decline, but why assume he will do worse as he nears his prime? His BA did not suffer by getting more BBs. It's almost identical to '23-'24. His SLG improved, as many players do when reaching 24-26 years old. His OBP went from .275 to .291- still not good but a marked improvement. I just don't get why he is the chosen one to bitch about.

Lots of other close games, other than 1 run games. We've had some bad losses, too. 11-1 and 14-2 are our worst, I thi

It just makes the situation that much sadder. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember that BAL and PIT did not even sell out playoff games back in the 70's. There seems to be something about those cities not being lovers of the game.

The announcers said it appeared he did not know the ball went to the backstop.