moonslav59

I'm not sure how much stock should be put into projections for prospects who have never played a single game in MLB. I'm also not sure how much stock should be put into how many #4 picks have done well or not. Many had Mayer as the #1 or #2, for what that means. To me, I see Mayer as ML ready on D. Only his health could add or subtract from that value. He may not be great on D, but he seems like he'll be a sure plus on D. His success in AA in '24, with his bat, is not a big sample size, and was at AA not AAA, so that is the area with the biggest questions, IMO. OBP is always the hardest part to project into MLB. We've seen so many players with .340-.370 OBP in the minors struggle to stay over .300 or approach .325. To me, if Mayer is 100% healthy, he may just need a few weeks to find his groove, after missing the last couple months of 2024 (just as he was promoted to AAA.) He may be MLB ready by mid April, if all goes well. If he is raking, and Story is looking good, we could have a tough question to answer, even with Bregman at 3B: who plays SS and who plays 2B? (Where does Campbell play, if Story or Mayer is at 2B?)

It can't hurt, and maybe seeing them get more attention might light an even bigger fire beneath him.

Yes, that's another way of putting it. He has not been like Story, who in his brief moments of being healthy, has not been able to hit, very well. Now, Story's bat skills are in question. Mayer has not reached that point. This also begs the question, why would one full and healthy season boost his ranking and value, so much? Would that prove he will stay healthy, going forward?

It's about his health, to me. I'm not sure the spotlight hurts. He does well, when he plays.

When a player gets injured as much as Mayer, their value drops, but it does not mean his skill levels drop, too. Will Mayer ever have a full and healthy season? If he does, he could easily jump back to top 10 or top 5 or 6. That's a big "if." Maybe not Trevor Story "IF." but still.... I think he still has enormous trade value, but with Story's issues, we can't afford to trade him, at least until Arias is closer to ML ready. (Maybe Romero makes it possible by having a monster 2025 season.)

It's not "giving up" on a guy, if you trade him for value, and hopefully higher value, especially if combined with other players with value, too. We did not "give up on HRam." We got Beckett for him. We did not give up on Armas & Pavano: we got Pedro for them. We did not give up on the group of players traded for Schilling, Sale and other greats. We traded player we valued highly for a player we valued even higher or needed more.

Where did I say we "need a trade?" Our team still has some real need areas. I've always looked to try and improve the team by trading from area's of strength and or excess to upgrade the areas of need. Could it backfire? Sure. We could trade DHam and then watch Campbell get hurt or severely disappoint at 2B, and wish we still had him. He could go on to do better than that stretch in 2024. Having a strong and deep bench is a true value, but to me, we need a better catcher more than 4 second basemen (Campbell, DHam, Romy & Grissom.) We need a closer more than we need 4 second basemen and 7 OF'ers (Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Campbell, Refsnyder and Yoshida) or so many AAA RP'ers with promise and trade value. It's not easy finding a trade partner, at this point in the year, and the idea of a 3 for 1 deal is even harder to make happen, unless 2-3 of the players are non 40 man roster add-ons, but if these kids turn out like we hope, we can afford to trade all of these 5 guys: Wong, DHam, Abreu, Kelly and Mata for a top 10 catcher- maybe top 2-4 or a closer. I'm not saying I'm for any trade like mentioned, but the framework looks doable. I realize Kelly, Mata and the like don't add much value, so maybe a Wink or Guerrero might be needed to get the type of catcher or closer I want, but I think we need another player or two: namely a real catcher and or a real closer.

Maybe not. I'm not sure how much a couple months matter, but he did miss the end of 2024, so you are probably right. BTW, career minor league games: 272 Mayer 245 Anthony 137 Campbell Yes, Mayer's development has been started and halted by injuries, too many times, and that has stunted his "growth" and prolonged his "readiness," but he has grown enough, IMO to be our best back-up SS. He will have some struggles, as do most rookies, but he'll be fine, if needed.

I don't mean to sound like I'm against the kids on the opening day roster, I just see reasons why the Sox might hold them back a while. 1. They seem loyal to the vets, although Dham, Romy, Abreu and Rafaela are hardly established vets. 2. Yoshida is getting paid $18M a year and may get a chance to earn his pay or build his trade value. 3. The whole years of control issue. 4. Positional bottlenecks: 2B if Bregman plays 2B and OF if Devers plays DH and forces Yoshida & Refsnyder into the OF conversation. I'm pumped up to see our top prospects get a long look, this year. Strong springs might force the issue, sooner-rather than later, but at some point, 2-3 of the top 3 will get a legitimate chance. If Campbell hits the ground running, he may even win over the 2 slot, which would allow Bregman to bat 5th. If Anthony comes out swinging, we could see him earn the 3rd, 5th or 6th slot. I'd say, the line-up, with both, might start like this: 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas 1B/DH 4. L Devers DH/1B 5. R Story SS 6. L Abreu RF/Refsnyder LF 7. R Campbell 2B 8. L Anthony LF/RF 9. R Wong or Narvaez C Bench: Rafaela, Ref or Abreu, Narvaez or Wong and 1 from Yoshida/DHam/Romy

It's not just because Story goes down. I think Mayer is ready or real close to ready. Just my take.

I could see Narvaez getting more playing time than Wong by midseason. Guerrero has a lot of competition, but he looks better than most others for that 12th or 13th slot of the staff. Campbell and Anthony seem ready, to me. Maybe has the hardest road ahead, unless Story goes down for the count.

"If they are raking," it will be hard to argue against them making the starting line-up. Even if the others are raking, too, I'm pretty sure one or both will be up. It's not certainty, if the vets are looking good, but I'd play Campbell in a heart beat over DHam/Romy, with Bregman at 3B, Devers at DH or 1B, Casas at the other and let the OF deal with any sort of crunch from Yoshi-Ref or Anthony. I do wonder, if some sort of trade might still go down, before opening day: maybe a Grissom or DHam trade, or possibly Abreu. I think trading Rafaela would put us under the tax line, but I doubt he'll be shopped. These are good choices that have to ne made. This is not, "should we start Arroyo, Peraza or Chavis."

True. Add... Narvaez: can he hit and is his D as good as some say it is? DHam: was the middle of 2024 a fluke? Romy: can he build off 2024 and keep up his nice splits v lefties? Mayer: can he stay healthy and be healthy if and when Story gets hurt.

Astros-Cards revived Arenado taks.

Sox injury updates on Crawford, Bello, Giolito, Abreu... No 6 man rotation announced. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/red-sox-injury-notes-crawford-bello-giolito-rotation-abreu.html

I'm not sure anyone has said there won't be one, but some are not sure... like me. There are several reasons for there not to be one. Mayer will not, unless Story is hurt. Guerrero may have the best chance of all. Campbell and Anthony seem to be ML ready, now, but they will likely not be added to the 40, unless and until they will be added to the 26 as FT or near FT players. That very well may happen on opening day, especially if there is an injury, but maybe without one, as well. If Bregman is at 2B, I'm not sure Campbell takes an OF position by opening Day. Anthony may not either. We have Duran, Rafaela and Abreu-Refsnyder. Yoshida in the OF has been mentioned, and if Devers is at DH, we may see him out there, too. I do not view the DHam-Romy/Grissom platoon as bad at 2B, but I do like the looks of Campbell at 2B better. That does not mean I'm sure he wins the job on opening day. DHam and Romy looked pretty good at 2B defense in 2024, and have nice matching splits as a platoon. Did they do enough to deserve the job? Probably not, but they might be given one, anyway, even if just to gain Campbell another year of service. There is also a chance the two rookies do not do well in ST'ing, which might tolt the choice towards a vet. There are 13 everyday slots, and 2 go to catchers, plus locks to Devers, Bregman, Casas, Story, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and probably Refsnyder. Yoshida may start on the IL or be optioned to AAA. That's 10 slots, not counting Yoshida or any 2Bman or rookies. The 3 slots could go to... Yoshida, if healthy Campbell and or DHam, Romy and Grissom Anthony That's 6 players for 3 slot. Campbell & Anthony offer the most upside and excitement. Yoshida might be the most predictable bat. Romy offers the best flexibility of the remaining 3 and hit well vs LHPs, last year. DHam looks good at 2B defense only, hit righties okay and could steal 50 bases, if given 650 PAs. Grissom has the most to prove and does not look good on D at any position. I'd say Grissom has the worst shot at the opening day 26 of these 6, so maybe it's really 3 slot for 5 player. If Yoshi starts the season on the IL, it's down to 4, and a rookie is almost certainly going to be one. The most likely 3 vets over a rookie would be Yoshida, DHam and Romy. That's not an exciting bunch, and I can see why Campbell and or Anthony can be viewed as clear choices over any of them, but I don't see it as a slam dunk choice, as of now.

Rafaela is better than Abreu vs LHPs.

Lots of dingers, today.

That was about $28.5M x 6. If he has a good year, he can get $28.5M x 5, this winter and end up plus. He might get the same $171M/6 offer, next winter.

I'm not so sure, but if 1 or 2 look great in ST'ing, I think it will happen. I'm not as down on the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B as many seem to be, and I could see us starting the season giving them a second look. (The first look was pretty nice.) I think the years of control factor might be in the equation, as well as the 40 man roster issues, if we add one or two. They are not deal-breakers, but somewhat significant factors. I'd love to see Campbell at 2B, opening day. Anthony in LF or RF would be nice, too, and if it squeezes Rafaela to a platoon/super utility role, that's not a bad thing. I'm more worried about squeezing our best bat vs LHPs, Refsnyder, out of the line-up, but I suppose he could play LF vs LHPs, Duran CF and Anthony RF. One thing is for certain, with Campbell at 2B and Anthony in the OF, Yoshida is left out in the cold- not a bad thing, either, except for the wasted budget space and 26/40 man roster spot. 1. Duran CF 2. Bregman 3B 3. Casas DH/1B 4. Devers 1B/DH 5. Campbell 2B 6. Abreu RF v R/ Refsnyder LF v L 7. Story SS 8. Anthony LF v R/ CF v L 9. Wong.Narvaez C Damn, that is nice. Rafaela super-sub on the bench w Abreu or Ref (nice PH'ers) DHam or Romy and Narvaez or Wong

I think DHam is a plus defender at 2B, and so is Romy. I also think 3B is an important defensive position. I think LF is one of the least important defensive positions, especially in Fenway. I don't think the drop off from Rafaela to Duran in CF is all that much, and if Rafaela plays RF vs LHPs, it's a better defense than Refsnyder in RF. I'll go with Bregman at 3B, DHam/Romy at 2B, until Campbell arrives and improve the offense by having Yoshida in LF vs RHPs and Ref vs LHPs. Duran in CF. Abreu-Rafaela in RF is a nice D platoon. It's not an clear cut choice. We could see switches, here and there.

Devers has been in MLB for 7.5 years. He could possibly improve his defense, but I'm not sure why we should expect that to happen. He has to have known this was an area of need for years. I will say, he has had some pretty long stretches where he looks okay to even decent on defense, but he tends to have periods of lost focus or whatever it is, where he basically sucks, bigtime, most notably with bad throws to 2B and 1B. We know Bregman is a top 3-8 defensive 3Bman and should remain there for a while longer. I don't see the benefit of forcing Campbell into an already very good and crowded OF, just to keep a poor defender at 3B. Anthony is already set to put the squeeze on Abreu & Rafaela, but creating a platoon with those two might work out very well. Benching them or trading them, so Yoshida can DH and Devers stay at 3B makes no sense, to me. There is not great rush, until we are ready to call up Campbell and or Anthony. We could probably go a while mixing and matching, whereby Yoshida, Rafaela, Abreu, Ref and others all get enough PAs to prove they need to keep playing or playing more often, by moving people around, but I'm not sure that is the best plan: Bregman at 2B and 3B, Devers at 3B and DH or 1B, casas at 1B or DH, Rafaela in CF and RF, Duran in LF and CF, and on and on.... I'm fine with some shifting and platooning, but not a merry-go-round at nearly every position but catcher and SS.

This thread is about our 2025 prospects, but here is a look at some of our recently graduated prospects, since 2021: P: Houck '21, Whitlock '21, Bello '22, Crawford '22, Slaten '24, Winckowski '22, Kelly & Bernardino '23 Everyday: Duran '22, Casas '23, Wong '22, Abreu '24, Rafaela & DHam '24 There is about a dozen pretty good players, here, and we could be adding 4-6 more in the next year or two (listed by ETA on soxprospects.com): Early '25: 1. Anthony, 2, Campbell, 3. Mayer, 17. Guerrero, 20. Penrod (to IL?), 28. Narvaez Mid '25: 9. Fitts Late '25: 8. Dobbins 2026: 11. Sandlin, 12. Jh Garcia, 13. Romero, 14. Early, 18. Castro, 21. Monegro, 24. Mullins, 27. Jordan, 29. Wehunt (Longshots: 47. Gambrel, 48 Hickey, 49 G Jackson, 50 Uberstine, 56. Mata)

Priester on the mound, today. Anthony was scratched, yesterday but is in today's line-up: 1. DHam SS 2. Anthony LF 3. Rafaela CF 4. Narvaez C 5. Mayer DH 6. Grissom 2B 7. Toro 1B 8. Thompson RF 9. Sogard 3B We plat the Rays.

What would it take to pry a catcher from STL, or some other team with 2 good catchers? I really think getting a better catcher would solidify this roster. I'm not sure Wong will be able to repeat his top 5 Offense as a catcher, and his D was horrible in '24.