moonslav59

Players on the Sox that were on the 2021 team: Devers, Duran (33 gms), Houck, Whitlock AAA in '21: Crawford, Wink, Casas, Wong

Ottavino released by Sox. Some players being cut loose by other teams: Mitch Haniger SEA Brandon Drury CWS Ross Stripling & Luke Maile KCR Dane Dunning TEX

That's $160M/5 or $185M/6 Since the two arb years remaining would likely get him $25-30M/2, the extension would be more like $130M/3 or $154M/4. That comes to about $39-42M a year, for the year beyond our current control. I'm thinking more like $140M/5 or $175M/6. The extension parts would break down to $110M/3 or $145M/4 or about $36-38M a year.

Last season, we finished 81-81, 15th in everyday player fWAR and 11th in Pitching fWAR. We were 26th in Defense. Here are my projections for 2025: Starting Pitchers: (11th in 2024 at 12.0 fWAR) The additions of Crochet and Buehler look very nice. We lost Pivetta but get Giolito back from injury. Houck, Bello and Crawford could give us a nice rotation from top to bottom. The SP'er depth beyond these top 6 looks better than anytime I can remember: Fitts, Priester, Newcomb, Criswell, Dobbins, Fulmer and eventually Sandoval. I project a 14.5 fWAR and 5th place (1st or 2nd in the AL) Relief Pitchers: (14th in 2014 at 3.6) We lost Jansen & Martin, but also some real scrubs. We added Chapman, Wilson and essentially, Hendriks. Whitlock returns to the pen and Slaten looks to build off a nice rookie year. We have a ton of depth in the pen and can use some of our SP'er depth in the pen, as well. Some might say deep in mediocrity, and I can't really argue against that notion, but some of our pen arms have some real promise or have shown recent success. I'm going with a slightly worse pen at 3.5 nad 15th place. Catchers: (22nd in '24 at 1.8)I really like Narvaez, especially his promise on D. I'm about ready to give up on Wong's D, and his decent offense in '24 looked more like a fluke than anything repeatable. I'm projecting we don't get any better, here. Our D may improve, but the O will get worse than the .723 OPS in '24 (8th in MLB.) I project a 1.7 fWAR and 24th place. First Base: (20th at 0.6) Here is where we have a great chance to jump in the rankings. 1B was a total mess, once Casas went down. Dom Smith was able to steady it a bit, but the position was pretty bad. It comes down to Casas staying healthy, which is a reoccuring theme for this team, but I'm hopeful he does. Projection for 2025: 2.5 fWAR and 6th place. Second Base: (30th at -2.3 fWAR) As much as I have talked about how DHam & Romy stabilizing the position for a couple months, the second base position was downright horrific in 2024. It sucked in '23, too, and other than a few brief moments, when Story and Kike played the position, it has been awful for over 5 seasons. That being said, we have some promising choices at 2B for the '25 season. Despite Campbell's struggles in ST'ing, he still offers more hope and promise than anyone sle has in years. The talk of Mayer or Story playing 2B could come into play, at some point, and I'm still clinging to the notion that a DHam-Romy platoon could be a decent idea, especially when mediocrity at 2B would be a huge boost over worst in MLB. I'm projecting a big gaine at 2B, but even a 0.0 fWAR would be a 2.3 gain! I'm going with a 2.0 fWAR at 2B and 15th place- a jump of 15 slots. Short Stop: (15th at 3.2) Somehow, we managed to finish middle of the pack in '24, despite the loss of Story. Rafaela was able to stabilize the position, but is not expected to play SS in 2024. It will come down to two injury prone players: Story and Mayer- both having pretty nice springs. It's a hard position to project, and I'm going with staying about the same, but with big upside: 3.3 fWAR and 15th place, again. Third Base: (14th at 2.5) Bregman helped HOU have the 5th best fWAR at 3B, and a lot had to do with his defense. I expect our D at 3B to greatly improve, while the O gets worse. I project a 4.0 fWAR and 4th place- a significant jump. Outfield: (2nd at 13.0) I'm not sure where everyone will play and even who will play or platoon, so I'm doing the OF as a whole. The defensive alignment of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF might be the best left-to-right starting OF defense in Red Sox history. Having Anthony knocking on the door offers more hope. Refsnyder has been a top 15 batter vs LHPs, which offers help in an area where all 3 OF'ers struggle: batting vs lefties. Yoshida may suck on D, but he could be a plus on offense, while playing short corner OF. With the #1 Yankee OF losing Soto, I'm projecting we finish with the best OF fWAR in MLB at 13.5. (Maybe, Duran 5.5, Abreu 3.0, Rafaela 2.0 and Anthony + Ref at 3.0 combined.) Designated Hitter: (15th at 0.6) Here is another position, where we may see a near 15 place rank improvement, as Devers looks to be the FT DH. With Yoshida and Ref in reserve, it's hard to see a better layout, except Ohtani at DH 4 out of 5 days w LAD. I project 2nd place and a 5.0 fWAR at DH. 31.5 in my everyday total. That would have finished 5th in 2024, so I'm going 5th or 6th in 2025. An 18.0 total pitching fWAR projection would have placed 6th in 2024. I'm projecting 7th in 2025. Our defense should be much better, maybe 14th to 16th best/worst. I'm going with a 90-72 record and a WC slot, but with the injuries to the Yanks, maybe we can win the division. Link to Part I:

I can't believe opening day is so near! I'm excited about this season, despite the rotation injuries and pen uncertainties. The Devers-Abreu-Story problems may work themselves out, and as always, we seem to have more questions than answers, but we have depth and some decent secondary chocies, some of which seem more promising than the likely opening day starters. The 3 top prospects. Maybe a returning Sandoval. Maybe Hendriks finds a groove, before it's too late. Maybe, the second half by DHam-Romy was not a fluke. Maybe Wong & Casas improved their defense, over the winter. Maybe Slaten & Whitlock have great seasons. Maybe, maybe, maybe... Hope springs eternal.

STing leader board OPS 1.280 Thompson 1.060 Bregman 1.022 Eaton .997 Toro .957 Mayer .936 Story .933 Rafaela .817 DHam .757 Casas, .753 Sogard, .740 Romy,, .719 Anthony, .713 Refsnyder .686 Yoshida, .639 Narvaez, .618 Wong, .615 Duran ..587 Campbell., .535 Grissom ERA (7+ IP) 0.57 Crochet 0.63 Newcomb 0.79 Fulmer (demoted) 1.80 Buehler 2.35 Kelly (demoted) 2.45 Fitts & Chapman 3.12 Bernardino, 4.70 Criswell, 4.82 Davis & Priester 6.23 Weissert, 11.20 Houck, 15.43 Wink 4-6 IP 0.00 Drohan, 2.08 Troye, 3.00 Mills 3.86 Slaten, 7.94 Wilson, 9.53 Guerrero, .995 Hendriks

For a long time, the Rays often do better or much better than expectations, but they are getting more predictable, of late.

Yes, thanks for the correction. That makes a huge difference. I was wondering why he got so little.

Tanner Bibee had 2 years of control left- like Crochet. He has a 3.25 ERA after 2 seasons and 316 IP. He just signed an extension: $2M signing bonus + $3M in 2025 $4M in '26 $7M in '27 $10M in '28 $21M in '29 Club option for '30 at $21M w $1M buyout. $48M is the third most ever given to a 2 year player. Knowing this, what should Crochet get?

He's traded, drafted and signed more pitchers in his short time here than Bloon in 4 years.

MLBTR: Moore and Ottavino are both Article XX(b) free agents, so their minor league deals contain built-in opt-out clauses for today, May 1, and June 1 unless their teams have selected those contracts to the 26-man roster.

Word is, according to MLBTR, Fitts has won the 4 slot. Newcomb and Priester are fighting for the 5 slot. Ottavino & Moore will not make the opening day roster and have a May 1st date for a decision to be made. (Neither are on the 40.) Fulmer and Zavala are not going to be on the roster, either. MLBTR also reported.... In some interesting behind-the-scenes Red Sox news, The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey detailed some of the many organizational changes Craig Breslow has overseen since being hired as Boston’s chief baseball officer in the fall of 2023. Breslow has conducted something of an overhaul of several different departments within baseball options, ranging from installing new department heads to entirely changing how certain divisions operate. The perception is that the Sox are adopting more of an analytical-based approach, as evidenced by staffing increases to the research and development department and cuts made within the various scouting divisions.

I think Yoshida, but not sure on the others.

Maybe after 3 or 4 starts in April? He may have been working on a secondary pitch, today. (I'm probably reaching, there.)

We really can't afford to have Houck drop off, significantly, this year. Crochet & Buehler could take up a lot of slack, but we need a strong third man, and Newcomb, Fitts or Priester are not likely candidates.

I'm all for an extension. He's worth an overpay, despite the risks. We gave up a lot for him. 2 years will likely not be worth it. We need 5-8 years.

I was okay with the $17M x 4, but how many playoffs did we make under that extension? He started 73 out of a possible 115 starts in those 4 seasons. That was not the main reason we missed the playoffs in 3 or the 4 seasons, but it didn't help. It's no coincidence he had 32 of those 73 GS in 2021. That was a big game in 2021 vs the Yanks- no doubt. The rest of the '21 playoffs was not something to brag about, though: 15.1 IP 10 ER (15 Hits & 5 BB) I have no beef w Nate. I'm glad we traded for him and extended him, but his injury issues hurt us. It did not help that Sale's injury history was even worse, over those same years; Price fell apart, and ERod missed a season with Covid and never regained his form in '21.

It's hard to know who will be the first RP'ers called up. Last year, we used 27 pitchers in relief, including Reyes and Dom Smith. If we can keep that under 20, it might be a good sign. If we don't have to trade for relief help, this summer, that would be another good sign. It looks like a sure bet that Chapman begins the season as our closer. I hope he can hold that slot, all year. Hendriks and Slaten might turn out to be decent 8th inning pitchers. Whitlock and Criswell could be very good 2 inning, high leverage arms in the pen. All these 5 guys have questions, but the rest of the pen seems wide-open. The good thing is, we have about 15 pitchers with varying levels of promise hoping to get a shot at the remaining 3 pen slots: Wilson, Ottavino, Fulmer are the seasoned vets. (Moore & Adams are longshots) Bernardino, Kelly and I Campbell had some success at the big level, even if just for short stretches. (Moran might rise) Guerrero might be the rookie break through guy. Converted SP'ers might help (Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins) Other longshots might be: Mata, Mills, Harris, Gambrell, Adames, YH Cruz or even Murphy or Sandlin, later in the season. If Sandoval returns, we could push Gio or Bello to the pen. That is a lot of names. I've never been a quantity over quality fan, but it's better to have quantity than to not have it.

I like how this team is shaping up and the depth we have at nearly every position. Our rotation has too many injuries, at the same time, but we kind of expected it and planned for it, this time. Catcher: Narvaez may help on the defensive side of the position, but his offense is a big question. Wong's D has to improve, of he is no longer a true starter. His offense in 2024 looked good, but metrics show he was a bit lucky. 1B: Casas needs to stay healthy. His D is what it is, but the guy can rake. 2B: The big question mark, this spring, but I like our 3 options more than what we've had at 2B over the past 2 years: Mayer, Campbell or a DHam-Romy platoon. SS: Story's health and arm are at question, as well as his O, but Mayer looks ready, so maybe SS will be the best it's been since Bogey was hitting well. 3B: Bregman is the best all around 3BMan we've had in a long time. OF: Duran-Rafaela-Abreu could be the best defensive Sox OF, ever. Their offense is not too shabby, either. Anthony, Ref and even Yoshida offer good depth. DH: Devers, Yoshida & Refsnyder could be the best DH group in the AL. Rotation: Crochet, Houck, Buehler are the best 3 we've had in a while. Having 6-8 guys to choose for teh 4-5 slots is nice: Bello, Gio, Crawford, Fitts, Newcomb, Priester, Criswell & Dobbins. Pen: This is our major need area, especially at closer. We may end up finding a decent closer from the top 4 group, but hopefully we won't need to trial and error it for a couple months. I like our pen depth and extended pen depth, but again, I'm hoping we don't have to cycle through 18-20 pitchers to find the best 8. Cora need to choose well. I think we can have a decent 8, but don't ask me to predict who those 8 will be, especially after the 4-5 we all think might be okay or better.

About 1800 ft high Mexico City is about 7400

I'm not sure we can know how well Mayer will do from April to May, and just as importantly, how well will any other player we choose do or would have done? If Mayer hits .625, maybe DHam would have hit .600. Poster will complain, no matter what we choose to do, unless the choice works great from day one.

He may have won a slot, even if he does not do well in Mexico. Cora has been gushing over him.

Hendriks says Chapman deserves the closer role. He "earned it."

He has looked good, but maybe they are choosing to keep him as depth, without having to add him to the 40 (and 26,) so we can add someone else. If Fulmer keeps pitching well, he can easily replace someone else, later, of be added when we put someone on the 60 Day IL. No hurry on any of this.

The thing is, even if Devers misses a lot of time, this year, we could probably get good offense from Refsnyder and others being squeezed by Mayer, Campbell and Anthony. Yes, he's not a bad hitter, but we can do better, IMO. We could pay every penny of Yoshida's deal and add Bernardino, and it would not be enough for O'Hoppe. Adding Abreu gets us close, but good catchers are hard to find and highly valued by teams that have them. One factor could be how much LAA likes or wants Abreu and/or if they like/want Wong or Narvaez. Maybe Yoshida + $10-12M a year, DHam & Wong could get the deal done. They might demand Abreu & Wong.