moonslav59

3rd best record in the AL and top 10 in MLB with a slew of quality and promising players returning for hopefully full seasons: Crochet, Mead, Anthony, AR, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo and others. I think most players view the Sox as a 2027 contender and for 2028 and beyond as well. (The 2028>>> might not matter to Gray.) We aren't a top 3-4 team, right now, but we are pretty close to top 5-7, maybe 3-4 with some luck. Getting an elite bat added could make us top 3-4 on paper with just average luck with health and uptick/downtick results.

Like what Bloom tried?

We are.

Except when you need them to start in the playoff due to injuries or pitch from the pen.

I agree on batting. We have a nice 1-4 SP'er group and a decent 5-8 group. I've suggested we add DLC, Sato or Suzuki or one of them plus another really good bat. We have Mead, AR and Anthony as possible major "adds" to 2027, too.

OKay, he plays DH and Mead 2B, or Durbin to 2B

Amd the Rays, and Astros, Guardians, CWS, Rangers...

It doesn't matter if other contending teams have the same or worse 5-8 SP'ers?

Okay, a lot of talk about the Sox rotation depth (Houck, Crawford, Oviedo) and even their #5 (Bello.) No doubt, we have major questions. Hell, even Crochet has questions. Some question how Suarez can't give 160 IP. Some worry Tolle & Bennett were overused and are high risk. My main point is that the same is true, or worse, for other contenders. New York Yankees: 1. Schlitter: To those worried about Tolle & Bennett jumping their IP from 2025, do you worry about Cam going from 76 to 204 counting the playoffs? (Granted Cam had 120 IP two years ago on the farm and about 150 last year in AAA and MLB, but Tolle had 107, last season.) 2. Fried will be 33 and missed about 1/3 of this season and a half season in '23. I guess when other pitchers get hurt and come back, we should have no questions or concerns, right? 3. Cole is 36, missed all or 2025, came back to look pretty good this year in 22 GS, but he's got just 39 GS in 3 seasons (232 IP.) Is he less of a risk than Crochet or Suarez? 4. Rodon will be 34 and could be viewed as the poster boy for inconsistent IP and even performance levels to a lesser extent. 29 GS from '19-'21 combined then 31>14>32>33>16 (last year.) Please, nobody say they trust his health more than just about anyone but maybe Crawford or Oviedo, who are our #7 & 8 not #4.. 5. Warren has looked very trustworthy with 33 and 29 GS in the last 2 years (318 IP, and he's in prime.) His career 4.59 ERA is not great and 1.37 WHIP this year are not what I'd say beats out how good Bello, Houck and Crawford have shown they can be. 6. Weathers is also prime, but 2026 is the first season he's gone over 18 GS and 95 IP. How reliable is he? Don;t get me wrong: I like this guy, and warren too but how much can we trust them? 7. Elmer Rodriguez is young and has only 6 career MLB GS. (5.40 ERA) 8. Luis Gil is prime, but has had several issues. 84 IP in the last 2 years combined. He looked real good in 2024 (29 GS and 3.50 but a 4.14 FIP) but so did Houck. Crawford's best year was 2023, but all these guys are question marks. (Clarke Schmidt FA) IMO, Houck and Crawford still have some high hopes. Neither is old. Both were healthy to end 2026. (Oviedo, too.) Here's a shorter look at the Rays SP'ers. Nick Martinez (most IP 180) had a 3.10 ERA and was their ace. He's a FA, so it's kinda like us losing Gray. Rasmussen and McClanahan could both be viewed as an ace. Drew had 30 & 31 GS. I do trust him, but he's kinda like Suarez- not a lot of IP for all those GS (322 in last 2 years and only about 220 in the previous 3 seasons combined. Shane had TJS last year, so why do we trust him so much? Sure, he was better than Houck and others but he went 118 IP, this year. He's never been over 166. Griffin Jaz will be 32 and doesn't impress me any more than Bello/Houck/Crawford/Oviedo. He was mostly a RP from '22-'25. (Peralta is a FA, too.) Ian Seymour (132 IP 4.21 ERA) is the only depth I see. Am I missing something? Are the Rays or Yanks set up better than we are for starters? Top 5 and then 6-7-8?

Is this good enough? Sign Sato... 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Mead DH 3. L Sato 2B 4. R Contreras 1B 5. L Abreu RF 6. S Rutschman C 7. R Rafaela CF 8. R Durbin 3B 9. R Arias SS Better.... (Sign Sato & Trade Arias, Durbin & Valera for de la Cruz...) 1. S de la Cruz SS 2. R Mead 2B/DH 3. L Sato 3B 4. R Contreras 1B 5. L Anthony LF 6. S Rutschman C 7. L Abreu RF 8. L Yoshida DH/ R Story 2B 9. R Rafaela

How about a guy with a .353 OBP and 35 XBHs in 285 ABs (329 PAs?) IMO, Abreu should not bat 3rd. He should be 6th or 7th. Maybe 5th is fine, if the top 4 are really good and no black holes behind him.

1. I doubt anyone projects a 111 OPS+ for Yoshida in 2027. 2. I think GM should worry about him not playing full seasons. 3. I think he might get $3-5M/1 as a FA, hence that is his expected payback, if we trade him for no return but cash savings. 4. I'd prefer Story or Mead at DH over Yoshida (Arias at SS). I'd prefer a Gasper-Jones platoon. I'd prefer a Sogard-Romy platoon.

The only way I give Duran and arb is if a trade is already agreed upon. Better yet, trade him before offering the arb. Save the $11M to put tow addards a big add. I'd also try to save $3-5M on Yoshida and $4-6M on Story by unloading one or both.

Bello's starter ERA was 7.18 not 10, and it was 0.48 in his last 4 games (3GS.) Check other team's 5-6-7-8, and you will see most have the same or worse than ours. I'm not so much saying our is good as I am saying others are worse. Many other teams have pitchers returning from long IL stints or crappy seasons. Some have never ever looked even average.

Blatant PI on the last play of the BYY-ND game. Home field advantage to BYU. 1. Miami 6-0 2. BYU 6-0 3. Ohio St 6-1 4. ND 6-1 5. Georgia 6-1 6. Indiana 6-1 7. Ole Miss 5-1 8. Texas Tech 6-0 9. UCLA 6-0 10. Utah 6-0 13. Tennessee 6-1 12. Kentucky 6-1 13. Alabama 5-2 14. Houston 6-1 15. Iowa 5-1 16. USC 6-1

They are certainly questionable, but both pitchers were good pitchers who got hurt and are healthy, now. Like about 75% of pitchers these days. Maybe they weren't pitching well when we last saw them, because of the injury later discovered. BTW, last time we saw Crochet pitch, he wasn't too good, either.

Our farm is no longer that good, but we do have Arias, Gonzo & (far away) Primera. Some say Arozarena is not a fit and is a head case. I'm not sure. I agree on trying to shed Duran, Yoshida and Story and add some budget space.

1 elite bat gets in the top 3-6 teams in MLB. 2 excellent bats gets us in top 2-5 teams. Either of these two plus a good SP'er or Morejon would put us top 2-3. I'm thinking 1 or two major adds is enough, because we have Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Anthony, Mead and AR looking at full seasons. That's 4-5 significant additions right there beofr e we add anybody.

I know you don't mean all nine batters need to be at or near all star quality, but what is "championship quality?" Look at the numbers of the remaining 3 team's line-ups 1 to 9. It's impossible to predict health, so normally we compare each line-up based on good health and then maybe adjust on how good each team's bench looks. To say we are 3 or more bats away from WS quality is way off, IMO. To me, we need just one elite bat. Two would be great, but let's just assume 1. I'll use Suzuki to make it simple. Top 9 bats 1 to 9: BOS: Suzuki, Contreras, Anthony, Mead, Abreu, AR, Rafaela, Durbin, Story/Arias MIL: Truang, Bauers, Chourio, Contreras, Mitchell, Yelich, Ortiz, Frelick, DHam/Vaughn TBR: Caminero, Y Diaz, Aranda, L Hicks, DeLuca, Simpson, Palacios, Walls, Mullins/Mesa CLE: Ramirez, DeLaute, Kwan, A Martinez, Bazzana, Rocchio, Manzardo, Schneemann, Adell/Hoskins LAD & NYY have very good 1-9 batters, but consider this: out of every teams' top 9 batters by PAs... The Yanks had 3 guys under .655, 5 under .711 and 8 under .768 (Granted Judge was 10th at .871, but counting him still leaves 3 under ,644, 5 under .711 and 7 under .768.) LAD had 2 batters under .715 and 3 under .759, yet they didnt make the WS. MIL had 3 under .692 and 5 under .758 TBR had 4 under .689! and 6 under .728! CLE had 4 under .688, and 8 under .756! BOS had 3 under .665 (Monasterio, Duran & Story, but maybe none of them start next year.) 5 under .727 (Sogard and Durbin) Add Mead, Anthony and AR, who were not top 9 in PAs on the BOS team and we have ... .901 Contreras .851 Mead .823 Gasper .773 Abreu .761 Rafaela .746 Yoshida .735 Anthony .740 AR .727 Sogard/ .727 Seigler .710 Durbin Without adding anyone, we could have zero under .710, 2 under .740, 4 under .760

In short, our losses via free agency seem very manageable over the next few years: Gray- this winter AR & Chapman- next winter Contreras & Whitlock after 2028. Abreu & Miller after 2029. Every other significant player is under control for 4 or more years. This is not a call to stand pat: it is the opposite. Now is the time to pounce. We lose some big salaries in the next year or two. We need to go for it. Big and Bold. Large and Long.

I'm not sure how many teams have better 5-6-7 depth than Houch. Crawford and Oviedo. Maybe less than 15? I'm more worried about our 8-9-10, and we've needed to go this deep often in recent years: Paez, Wehunt & Holobetz One thing looks different, this year: Known pitcher injuries over the winter.... In 2023 we had our biggest injury issue SP'er still on the team: Sale and we added Kluber- another huge injury starter. We also knew Paxton needed time to return from injury, and Bello began the season on the IL. In 2024, Gio began the season on the 60. We also had Whitlock starting. Our AAA depth was Fitts, Criswell, Gambrell and Van Belle. In 2025, we began the season knowing GIO would need time to return, and we signed Sandoval, knowing he'd be out until AUG. (He never started one game in '25 and missed most of '26, too.) Bello and Crawford also began the season on the IL. In 2026, we knew Houck, Crawford and Sandoval would miss significant time before the season started. For 2027, every SP'er ended the previous season pitching and seemingly healthy. That's a new one.

There are different levels of flexor strains. As of now, Oviedo is slotted 6-7-8. He's had some success in his career, much like the other 6-7-8 pitchers: Houck and Crawford. Here is a breakdown of each: Houck has had the most success of the three and before all the injuries had some of the nastiest stuff on the team. He was our ace before Crochet. Over the first 3 seasons, he was jerked between starter and reliever. '20-'22: 3.02 ERA in 146 IP (2.95 FIP and 1.12 WHIP) He had an awful 2023 season as a SP'er (5.01 ERA/4.43 FIP/1.37 WHIP) 21 GS and 106 IP In 2024, he was clearly our ace and may have began his injury during the season, as he started off like a Cy Young starter then fell off a cliff. 1st 19 GS: 117 IP 2.54 ERA/2.68 FIP last 11 GS: 63 IP 4.23 ERA/4.53 FIP While a 19 game stretch is not long enough to determine a pitcher is great or not, 117 IP plus his success as a RP'er does offer evidence he was once a formidable pitcher. Maybe he should return to the pen, but maybe not. Crawford: He led the team in GS (33) and IP (184) in 2024, but his best season was 2023 4.04 ERA and 3.83 FIP. From 2023-2024, his ERA+ was 102 (4.23 ERA and 4.31 FIP.) Neither years show he's an ace or even a #2 or great #3, but he was pretty good. Like Houck, he did have one very nice stretch (in 2024) 20 GS & 114 IP (5 2/3 IP per start) at 3.00 ERA and 3.77 FIP Oviedo pitched for STL and PIT from 2020-2025. Like Houck, he was used as a SP'er and RP'er over his first 3 seasons: 143 IP 4.34 ERA and 4.68 FIP His 2023 season was his best: 178 IP 4.31/4.49 which are okay 5th starter numbers. He missed the whole 2024 season. He started 9 games in 2025 before getting hurt. 2023-2025: 41 GS and 218 IP (5 1/3 IP per start) 4.17 ERA/ 4.57 FIP This is about what you can hope your 6-7-8 starter can give you. His best stretch was 15 GS in 2023: 3.86 ERA/3.35 FIP. That's a good #3 pitcher's numbers. You can expand that stretch to 26 starts and 4.09 ERA/4.05 FIP which are decent #3/4 numbers.

Perhaps the best batters on the market? RHB/LHB 1. de la Curz (Lindor, KMarte, Happ) LHB 1. Sato 2. Abrams 3. B Lowe (bad splits v LHPs) RHB 1. Suzuki 2. Neto 3. Torres

I think a LHB is needed more, but one of both would be even nicer. Team OPS: .734 v L (.722 v games with LH SP) .710 v R (.715 v games with RH SP) The gap is SLG (.024) is more than OBP (.009.) Much less power v RHPs. While this looks pretty close, look at the splits by players: v RHPs (returning players listed w 100+ PAs) .902 Gasper (may start 2027 on IL) .878 Contreras .817 Anthony ,816 Mead w WSH .784 Seigler .743 Yoshida .742 Rafaela .735 Abreu .716 Durbin .693 Sogard .648 AR (2 teams) .747 career .633 Duran .631 Wong .615 Story .602 Monasterio (If Casas returns, he could help v RHPs) Maybe 4 Good batters and 4-5 okay batters. (Maybe Abreu can be counted as good, if he is more like career.) v LHPs (60+ PAs) 1.058 Jones (not sure he can keep this up) .966 Contreras .897 Mead w WSH .854 Abreu (first reverse split season in career) .813 Sogard .811 Rafaela .791 AR (2 teams) .722 Monasterio .711 Wong .696 Durbin .648 AR (2 teams) Career .767 .636 Story .608 Duran (should not start v LHPs) .588 Anthony (an outlier) (Romy has been great v LHPs but was injured) Maybe 5 good batters and maybe 3-5 okay batters, counting Romy, Anthony and AR (maybe Story) doing better.

We were so bad from 2019 to 2023, and 2020-2023 was under Bloom. We had one good year in 2021- mostly by riding the last residual skills from the 2018 team. It's easy to throw around words like "bad culture, complacency (FO and fans) and nerds." I know we all want rings, and nobody expected Brez to build a ring team in one year. Three years should be close to enough: I agree, and this was his third season. The team went from two straight years at 78-84 to 81-81 in 2023, then 89-73 and 87-75 the last two seasons. 257 wins ranks 9th. 56.3 pitching fWAR ranks 3rd. (5th in ER allowed but 12th in runs allowed) 69.2 everyday fWAR ranks 8th. (8th in runs scored) If you give Brez a pass for 2024, his first season and no major expanded spending other than the Devers extension... 2025-2026 7th in Wins (1 ahead on TBR and 5 behind CHC & SDP) 4th in runs allowed (1287) & 9th in runs scored (1475) +188 run differential 3rd in Pitching fWAR (3rd lowest earned runs allowed) 7th in everyday fWAR (9th in runs scored) 5th in DRS & 7th in OAA (4th in fangraph's dWAR) Nobody can deny these numbers show marked success. The dip in wins from 2025 to 2026 goes against the "continued" progress position, for sure, but I don't think it's the homer in me that thinks we got better from 2025 to 2026. Expectations should be high for 2027, and I'm not seeing fan "complacency." I see more of a sense of urgency. What we do or fail to do this winter will be talked about a lot. I hope we get bold, and if Brez has been anything (for good or bad) he's been bold. From Sale & Devers to Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Contreras, Mead and AR and more, he has not shied away from making major moves. At the risk of looking beyond 2027, we will finally be rid of Story and Yoshida after this coming season. Maybe just those one year left aspects to those deals might be enough to get JH to green light something really big, this winter- knowing $32M in AAV comes off the books soon. If we trade Duran, we can shed $11M for 2027 and about the same of more for 2028. That's $11M now and $43M for 2028. I'll be pissed if JH goes cheap this winter. We have a window wide open, and it's not a 1-2 year window either. Most of our core players are under control for 3-6 years. That's not an easy thing for a GM to pull off, and I'm not sure how many other teams can match the years of control + talent, like we do. I do think this 2027 roster looks unprecedented in Sox post "non free agent" history... 8 Anthony (counting 1 option) & Campbell (counting 2 options) 6 Bennett, Gamboa, Paez, Samaniego, Cheng, Rivera, Olds, Burgos 5 Crochet, Tolle, Rafaela, Suarez, Sogard, Seigler, Gasper 4 Mead, Durbin, Bello, T Guerrero, Jones 3 Abreu, Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Monasterio, Kelly 2 Contreras, Whitlock, Crawford, White, Duran, Romy, Casas, Wong 1 AR, Chapman, Houck, Oviedo, Story, Yoshida Losing Chapman and AR after 2027 is significant, but it's just 2 players after losing just one this year (Gray.) I can't remember the last time we had a roster looking this good and losing just 3 important players in 2 years. It looks like just 2 more after 2028 (Willson & Whitlock) and 2 after 2029 (Abreu & Miller.) We don't face any major single winter loss for a long time.