moonslav59

I'm certainly far from expecting it and have given up on even hoping for it, but we should have about $40-50M to spend and stay under the tax line ($60-70M if we go up to the second tax line, which is highly unlikely.) We can't swing and miss on the Buehler type signings. Brez needs to win every signing, which might be just 2 significant ones. At best, I expect we trade for the third one of our 3 top priorities. Best hope: $25-30M AAV on FA #1 $20-30M AAV on FA #2 Major trade to land a high quality SP, 1Bman, 3Bman or SS/2Bman. My guess is we land 1 or 2 of these wishes.

AAV Lost $Millions 31.7 Bregman 29.1 Devers 21.1 Buehler 19.3 Giolito 5.0 Hendriks 2.3 Wilson 2.1 Refsnyder ?? Matz & May That's close to $120M gone or going, soon. _________________________________ AAV gained (from Devers trade and onwards) 24.5 Crochet (3.8>28.3) 15.5 Anthony (Min>16.3) 10.3 Hicks (Devers trade) 6.7 Campbell (Min>7.5) 4.7 Duran (3.8>8.0) 2.5 Chapman (10.8>13.3) ~5.8 ARBs for Houck, Crawford, Romy, Casas, Wong, Bernardino, Wink & Kelly) That's plus about $70M I probably missed something, but it's close to $50M at stake, this winter.

They also moved slightly away from the one and done $10M pitcher signings with: $39M/2 Giolito $21M/1 Buehler $19M/2 Sandoval That's almost $80M for 3 years, not counting on any signings for 2026. It's already at $27M/yr x 3 years for SP'ers. We didn't get much from that $80M, but it is not chump change, either. They paid less for Chapman & Wilson that what Jansen & Martin cost, but for once going cheaper actually worked out. The Crochet and Anthony extensions were also accompanied by the Campbell deal. Recent extensions to Rafaela and Bello had already kicked in. I think it's safe to say a change has occurred, but with the Devers salary dump and the pending losses of Bregman, Gio, Buehler, Wilson and Matz, we are once again questioning where we go from here on spending. JH is known form cycling his spending, and while we all see a window opening wide and a clear reason to stay in the higher spending cycle, what the hell is JH thinking? None of us know.

It's impossible to project. I'd guess he wants to reset, after we just barely went over the line, this year. That means one major signing ($25-30M AAV) and one mid level deal ($15-20M AAV.) That means a trade is needed, if we want a third major addition. Ideally, JH allows Brez to go up to the second line, which I think would mean about $60-65M to spend. That could be a $25M, 20M and 20M trio or a $30M, $25M & 5-10M trio. (or teo mega stars and a trade.) I would not be surprised, if JH views all the recent extensions and making up for the Devers dump and Gio-Buehler walk-aways. He'll maybe replace just Bregman and call it a winter.

The idea should be to add players with at least 2 years of control, and not go all in for 2026 ONLY. Better yet, go for 3-4+ controlled players, who are mostly not on the wrong side of 30. Keller should be available and has 3 years of control. He turns 30 in April. Avoid one year targets like Singer and maybe even 2 year guys like Lodolo. Does that mean give up the world for 3 years of Greene? I'm not so sure, but I'd prefer him over 1 year pitchers. While Joe Ryan is often mentioned, we could get soon to be 30 year old Pablo Lopez for less, and he has the same 2 years of control remaining at an $18,3M AAV cost. Maybe we can get STL to take on Yoshida's contract, if we take back Sonny Gray (2 years) and W Contreras (2-3 yrs) or ....gasp.... Arenado's (1-2 yrs) contracts. To get Gray, we'd have to offer something like Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison or Fitts and maybe more (Sandlin, Garcia, Campbell?) There are ways to improve the team for 2016 AND beyond, preferably beyond 2027, too.

Any team in the land would view 3 prospects in the top 15 as a "big three." They might even come up with a more sensational term or phrase. There is also nothing wrong with putting some faith into those three and planning your roster around them, either as support to them or as them supporting the foundation you planned and set up. IMO, the Sox have done a fine job setting up the foundation for a winning "window" that includes deep rotation depth, and top 6 or 7 pen and a balanced line-up from top to bottom. There are many younger players that should be expected to improve and most of our best players are locked up for 3 or more seasons. IMO, what the team lacks is 3 key players: 2 complete package batters with an emphasis on power and a second ace-type pitcher or a solid #2 type would be fine. If we could do this without trading Abreu or Duran, Early or Tolle, or Crochet, Chapman, Whitlock or Slaten, we can be considered a top 4-5 contender and maybe top 2 in the AL for and perhaps far beyond. I don't expect JH to pay for 3 major FA additions, so I think we'll have to make one big trade to get to 3 additions. I'm not predicting 3 major additions. If I had to bet, I'd say its more likely 1 than 3, and maybe 2 would/could be enough, with some luck with health and age related improvements.

I make that argument all the time. Top IP pitchers face over 800 to 850 batters over a season, which is far more than any batter ever gets, but the fact is Anthony can make a difference in more than just 32 games. Like I said, I still think Crochet is more valuable, but we need both, and arguing which one we need most seems pointless. I doubt we have a chance at winning without either one, and we actually need more than just 2 top quality players to have a legit chance in 2026. Chapman, Duran, Story, Abreu, Bello and maybe some others are "good enough," but we need more higher quality.

Like Duran, Wong & Casas for Mitch Keller, Spencer Horwitz & Joey Bart? Duran & Hicks for Pablo Lopez? Duran & Yoshida (+$$$) for Luis Castillo?

I've retracted that claim, but I still have grave concerns about his projections.

I seriously doubt we include Tolle or Early for Ryan, let alone both, even as a 2 for 1 deal. i question why a team looking to trade 2 years of Ryan would think 3 years of Duran adds much to their immediate or long term goals. Abreu has 4 years left and Rafaela has 6. The Twins never seem to totally reload, so maybe they will want ML talent and not just prospects, and the Sox have several younger ML players with 4+ years of control- like Campbell, Mayer, Abreu, Rafaela, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts and others, as well as untested or slightly tested prospects that are ML ready or near ML ready- like Garcia, Perales, Sandlin & Romero. I don't think MN will want 5 second tier prospects and younger players and will focus on getting the best 2-3 they can get from any team, but I'm not sure any other team matches up as well as the Sox- in terms of having a long list of players we can offer. I've mentioned trading Duran so many times, I'm sure some think I do not value him highly enough. The fact is I'd love to keep Duran and trade Yoshida, so he can DH and make way for Anthony in LF, but I just don't see a Yoshida trade, demotion or DFA in the works. Abreu and Rafaela have more control and play way better defense. Abreu is our best current power bat. Rafaela has double the years of control as Duran. Ideally, we find someone to take Yoshida, as we pay most of his contract or take back a salary dump player in return, such as a pitcher, 1Bman or 3Bman. Duran could DH. Our OF would remain solid, but who can we get for a package like this? Campbell or Garcia Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison or Fitts Winckowski, Criswell, Sandlin, Kelly, Guerrero, Moran or Mullins Throw-ins like DHam, Grissom, Hicks (+$$$) or Hickey Even if we offered Campbell, Crawford, Fitts and Sandlin, what's the best we could expect in return? The other option is for JH to allow us to go over the first tax line and right up close to the second one. Sign 3 big FA names, while trying to shed some contract costs by trading Yoshida and Hicks along with a sizeable chunk of change. Non tender Lowe and see if we can squeeze under the budget.

OK, my bad. I agree on that. Buehler was the same thing as all along but at twice the wasted cost. I forgot Sandoval, too. Henry did allow a lot of spending, though, especially in light of the Devers extension kicking in in 2024.

MIA lost, tonight!

Come on. Your memory doesnt even go back 10 months. Does Bregman, Buehler, Chapman, Wilson and a mega extension to Crochet ring a bell?

Only if JH sets a low winter budget.

Big Ms win! Homer happy!

Imagine signing M Kelly, Polanco & Suarez and somehow dump enough salary from Yoshida and Hicks to keep us under the tax line. (Trading Duran for Lodolo would save another $4M.) Forget Kelly and just do the Duran trade, and we'd be under the line. Suarez may suck at 3B, but we could try him at 1B and he could back-up Mayer at 3B. 1. L Anthony LF 2. S Polanco 2B 3. L Duran DH/ R Story SS 4. R Suarez 3B 5. L Abreu RF/ R Romy DH 6. R Story SS/ L Abreu RF (or Ref) 7. R Narvaez C 8. L Mayer 3B 9. R Rafaela CF

That's why I mentioned more than Alonso & Schwarber. KMarte is a switch hitter with the 4th best OPS vs LHPs since 2024 (200+ PAs.) He's 13th in OPS vs RHPs since 2024 (700+ PAs.) Note: only 4 players have more PAs and a better OPS vs LHPs than Ref and onl6 6 players better than Romy.) KMarte's AAV is $19.6M, which is less than Bregman by over $10M. Suarez won't be super expensive or get a long deal, so JH could be okay with him. Polanco's contract situation might not be outlandish, either.

Some melted, but trading Devers in June and watching Anthony and Abreu go on the IL didn't help, either. I agree. We need Alonso, Schwarber, Suarez or K Marte. Bregman & Hoskins is not enough. Bichette & O'Hearn the same. Polanco & Naylor may not be either.

Is the Sam Kennedy Trinity College smackdown talk andy better?

The $8.8M tax hit is a nice plus for Greene. His 2029 option is just $21M, but I get your point. I'd rather keep the extra players and just go Duran or Abreu for Lodolo. If BTV is correct, maybe we can force CIN to take Hicks with Duran (maybe include Wong for Trevino to help being down the cost to CIN.) I like Singer but the one year deals don't appeal to me. Would Cincy do Duran, Hicks, Wong & Crawford for Singer, Lodolo & Trevino

I Campbell and deLeon passed through waivers and were assigned to AAA. They could end up being some decent depth, and I'm glad we created some roster space. I don't envision a 40 man roster crunch, even with Houck needed one slot, but we might have a 26 man crunch due to several pitchers out of options: Hicks, Wink, Moran & Criswell

It's multi-leveled.

The window is now. We need to stop dicking around!

The absurdity is overwhelming.

We need to set out sites higher than Bregman, Bichette, Hoskins and Naylor. Bregman hasn't had a full season with an ISO above .195 since 2019 (.209.) Hoskins has a .204 ISO since 2022 (.195 since 2023 or 2024.) Naylor had a .168 ISO, this season and .213 in '24. (.188 '23-'25) Bichett has not had an ISO above .179 since .186 in '21. 2025 OPS+ (last 3 years) 129 Hoskins (114) 129 Bichette (114) 128 Naylor (125) 128 Bregman (121) ___________________ I think we need to go with one or two from.... 2025 ISO/3 year ISO (OPS+/ 3 yr OPS+) .323/.280 (150/135) Schwarber .252/.252 (144/128) Alosno .243/.223 (126/115 is a bit worrisome) Suarez .233/.236 (145/141) K Marte (tarde?) .229/.191 (134/114) Polanco