moonslav59

Look how young our everyday players are... C Narvaez (Rookie) 26 and Wong 29 1B Casas 25 and Romy & Toro (both 28) 2B Campbell (Rookie) 22 turns 23, soon, DHam 26 SS Mayer 22 (Rookie), Story 32 3B Bregman 31 LF Anthony (Rookie) 21 CF Rafaela 24 turns 25, soon RF Abreu 26 in a few days, Refsnyder 34 DH Duran 28 turns 29, soon, Yoshida 32 soon Refsnyder (34) may retire, after 2026 and Story & Yoshida (32) may not be around in 2026. (Bregman 31, may not be here in '26, either.) 4 Rookies 3 players with under 500 career PAs (Romy, DHam, Sogard) 4 players with just 750-1050 PAs: Wong, Casas, Rafaela & Abreu Only 2 players with over 1800 PAs: Bregman & Story

Part of being higher ranked in runs scored is our home park. Another part is that we've played 1-3 games more than most teams, since the week 2-3 in the season. Our ERA suffers from Fenway, a little bit. We are 6th in OPS and 10th in wRC+, so maybe 5-10th in O is more accurate. We are 15th in ERA- and 10th or 11th in xFIP and FIP-, so maybe we are 10th to 15th in pitching. The defensive metrics place us between 11th (DRS) and 17th (OAA), so maybe near average, but I feel we are more like 20th to 25th.

I'm glad you are still around, too. I have my moments of feeling despair over the Sox, too.

Our pitching and pitching depth did improve with this deal, both now and over the next few years, on paper. Harrison and Hicks both seem better than our 12th and 13th pitchers have been, this year and in recent years. They also knock everyone below them down 2 slots on the depth charts, and so in that way, improve the deeper depth that is ML ready. Jose Bello gives us one more quality but far away hopeful arm. That's not a bad thing. We lost some serious offense. Nobody can dispute that or minimize it. We can hope or pray we somehow cobble together replacements and upgrades from several players that may minimize the impact of this loss, but as of now, that's all it is- hopes and prayers. Right now, soxprospects.com has this projected 2026 roster: SP: Crochet, Sandoval, Bello, Dobbins, Crawford, Harrison RP: (Chapman) Hicks, Slaten, Whitlock, Houck, Weissert, Fitts, Bernardino, Alcala (Wink, Criswell) C: Narvaez, Wong 1B: Toro, Romy (Casas) 2B: Campbell, Story (DHam/Grissom) SS: Mayer, Story 3B: Bregman, Story LF: Anthony, Duran CF: Rafaela, Duran RF: Abreu, Anthony DH: Duran, Yoshida (I took the liberty of assigning primary back-ups) Tibbs: LF in POR J Bello SP in SAL

I don't see it all this way, but nothing you said rings false, to me. I lived with "wait till next year" for over 3 decades, and it nearly killed me. Okay, I'm exaggerating. It nearly killed all hope I ever had of seeing my favorite sports team win a championship. Sometimes, I feel the four rings spoiled me into having unrealistic expectations. Afterall, there are 30 teams and fanbases with the same hope and desires I hold. I do think our future (maybe) looks as bright as I have ever seen it look. That is worth something. As much as I enjoyed 2018 and felt that window would be open for 2-4 more seasons, I knew the time would come, where we'd either have to become a massively high spending team or have a complete rebuild. That rebuild came faster than I expected, and JH pushed it along with the Betts debacle and further cuts and poor choices on who runs the team and how. We have a very solid base of young and talented players unde rteam control for many years and at relatively low costs, especially now that the Devers contract is gone and we are one year closer to the end of Story's and Yoshida's deals. Our lack of pitching futures can and should be addressed by spending and trading, as we did in the past, but we need to do better with those choices. The Crochet, Chapman and Wilson signings are three of the best we've seen in the last 5-6 years. The Buehler deal, not so much, so far. The Sandoval deal TBD. It's weird, my wife thinks I concentrate too much on what can go wrong, but my coworkers and students always comment on how optimistic I always seem to be, even in light of all the crap that goes on in education. I guess I'm a little of both and can see both sides of some issues. I'm not saying that's a good thing or a bad thing, or that I'm better than anyone else for this, but I do still have some optimism in this team's future. JH's spending this last winter has given me new hope that maybe they see there is a clear window. I see it as open, now. maybe theys ee it as just starting to open, but either way, I'm hoping the spending comes to fill the gaps in our system.

I do seem to gravitate towards all the marginal pitchers we have that still have a morsel of promise. One of these days, one will surprise us. Oh wait, nobody thought Dobbins would do much.

The results will be good for many years to come, IMO.

No doubt, we needed and still need a bat like Devers in our line-up, and the whole "will he earn is his keep?" argument has merit. There is a limit. Is his bat worth $40M a year? $50M? Look what Vladdy just got. That being said, almost any value rating service had the Devers contract as being under water. In a vacuum, one could say, getting anything plus back makes it a good trade, if you view it just in this light. I don't see it this way, but there is some logic in including the financial aspect of the trade in the final grade. Two things need to happen to turn this trade into a break even or plus: 1) We need to spend the money saved. 2) We need to spend the money much more wisely than we have in recent years. There is no evidence to think we can or will do even one of the above things, so I get the anger and angst shown by many, here. I'm tired of hoping for even #1 and being continually disappointed, until this past winter. #2 has been a constant issue with us and almost all of our biggest signings have been failures or gross failure.

"The hitting got a boost..." Do you even listen to yourself? What planet are you on?

I have to think Refsnyder will DH vs LHPs, so Anthony can play RF vs LHPs, instead of sitting out- not growing and learning on the fly. I might DH Duran vs most RHPs, so Anthony can play LF near FT. Maybe Anthony will DH a few games, himself. Once Bregman returns, we could see some infielders cycling through the DH role, especially if Story, Mayer & Campbell have been hitting well between now and Breg's return. If everyone is healthy and hitting well, we could still have a logjam, but it will be less pronounced with the DH slot open for overfill. (Then, there is Yoshida's return to consider.)

I think most managers attempt to do this to various degrees and success. I can see how a manager might sour, if he's repaid by said player loafing or dogging it.

I gotta think Anthony was wondering about still being in AAA, because the DH slot was not open for him, Duran and others who might open a roster slot for him. Toro and Romy were probably happy they got their chance to play and prove they deserve to continue playing.

Duran is certainly worth $8M. On the FA market, I think Brez would pay him double or triple that, if we didn't already have an OG logjam. Hell, he's worth $14-16M as a FT DH and 4th/5th OF'er. I have suggested Campbell to the OF to make way for Bregman's return to 3B and Mayer moving to a FT SS or 2B position. That would certainly mean a trade, and I also think we might end up being surprised that it won't be Duran or Abreu, but Rafaela, instead. I love Rafaela, but there are a few reasons to trade him and not Duran or Abreu. He costs more, contractually (long term.) Campbell may best be used in CF, but I do think he could learn to play LF, over time. Rafaela might be the one RHB in the OF, but Campbell bats RH'd, too and Rafaela's bat is so weak, the L-R hardly matters, as Duran and Abreu vs LHPs is not all that worse than Rafaela's vs L or R. Both Duran and Abreu blow Rafaela away vs RHPs, who start about 70% of all games. Abreu plays awesome RF defense and Duran offers a great plus with his base running skills. Rafaela would make for a great super sub, but on the expensive side as his contract cost rises in coming years. Then, we will have Arias & Jh Garcia knocking on the door, pretty soon and maybe Romero, Bleis and Cespedes, too- some a bit farther down the road.

I do wonder about the specifics of the whole Devers-Cora-Brez position change talks and non talks. If Brez wanted Devers to play 1B, but Cora avoided even talking to Devers about it, there is a major problem with the chain of command, and/or the expectation that orders be followed with fidelity. Not knowing what was said or asked makes it hard to judge the problem or even if there is a problem or not. At this point, I'm not sure it matters, except to cure our curiosity, but obviously the whole Devers situation reached the breaking point with upper management and maybe Cora, too. We may never know. I doubt Cora ever says anything bad about Devers, whether he believes it or not. My own opinion is that Cora went out of his way to defend Devers and protect him from criticism about changing positions. He may have even chosen not to ask him to play 1B out of respect for his position of not wanting to work on learning a new position in season (or ever.) I feel like Devers did not repay Cora's respect by playing hard and trying to be the best role model to all the incoming younger players he could be. He dogged it, seemed to become more of a loner than before and caused Cora more grief than he deserved, in light of his "walking on eggshells" treatment of Devers, this year.

Bregman is known for offering meaningful advice that players have credited him for helping them improve. He also went and learned Spanish, so he could talk to the many Hispanic players on his team. People make mistakes. I know I have. I'm glad those around me forgave me and allowed me to show I can change and do more good things, while still making new mistakes. I certainly want Bregman back.

I keep hearing how the opt out clauses in the Bregman signing somehow makes the spending effort put forth by Brez and JH, null and void. The guy has $40M on the table for 2026 and 2027. That's not chump change, and it also gives the Sox an incentive to try and restructure it to a more guaranteed control situation for both sides. I think there were doubts about Bregman's recent decline on offense. I think he answered those doubts a little bit, although maybe injury risk is higher, now. In short, we can probably sign Bregman to more years and a lower AAV than $40M- maybe $35M x 3 years, or $32.5M x 4-5 years. If we spend up to the line,in theory, we could sign Cease (solid #2 SP), Helsley (Closer) and Naylor (1B-LHB) Maybe we trade some blocked prospects for another solid SPer. (Arias or Romero plus Bleis or Jh Garcia. Maybe add Cespedes, Tibbs or a pitching prospect to upgrade the return.)

My initial gut reaction was this was a punt on 2025, and I still think it will be very difficult to overcome the hole in our line-up, but we do have a lot of young talent that could gives us a big boost. We have some very good talent on the IL that will start trickling back onto the 26 over the next few weeks and months. We have quite a few players who have not quite met expectations, so far, but with about 60% of the season remaining, still have time to right their ships. We've finally seemed to find a reliable top 3 SP'ers in Crochet, Bello & Dobbins and the guys we expected to be our #2 and #3 are or will be in the mix to come closer to our preseason expectations: Buehler, Houck and maybe Crawford & Sandoval in a month or two. (I don't have faith in Gio, but he could surprise us.) Maybe Hicks and Harrison do better than Paxton, Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims gave us in 2024. I'm not sure Yoshida gives us anything good, this year, at DH, but even if he doesn't the DH slot allows us to free up at least one logjam, going forward. We've been winning without Bregman, so maybe we can count on his bat replacing Devers'. Thanks for getting me back on a more optimistic path.

Good point. I think this goes beyond the different position issues, the dogging it, the lack of team comradery and less "smiling." The little and bigger things started adding up to the point where trading him made more sense than keeping him. The $31M for a forever DH was a major factor, too, IMO.

Soxprospects,com projects Tibbs to be ranked 6-8 on their rankings list. They mentioned how the Sox were interested in him, last summer, and how he was taken right after Montgomery. Several reports mention the high upside potential of K Harrison and the low level pitching prospect, J Bello.

Well, that's what we are paying. Every team as sunken costs, just not as much as we do. The Astros have done fine with 3-5 of their best SP'ers out, almost continuously for several years in a row.

I don't disagree, except we wont be "fine" for the rest of 2025, in terms of putting a winning team on the field. I was happy, when we traded Nomar, and told my family, the trade could help us win a ring. I don't feel our team got better on the field, with this trade. We may have gotten better once Harrison and Tibbs make a mark, but that may be 1-3 years from now. Once again, eyes will be on our winter spending and how well we do spending. Our track record on big spending has not been good, since DD, the Bregman signing as a possible exception.

It took me 17 paragraphs to say this. I agree, but would add that management is not blameless in this debacle, as well. The lack of effective communication has been an issue for so long, that it not being fixed lands in JH's lap.

Spotrac has us 18th, and I think it is up to date, because I think we were higher, before the Devers trade. When you look at the massive amount of money that comes off the books, this winter and more if options and opt outs all or mostly come out on the side of players leaving our budget. There are so many options (mutual vs team- buy outs or not) and opt outs that it's almost impossible to come up with a solid number. Even coming up with a range is difficult. If the plan is to spend up to the tax line, this coming winter, it's safe to say our GM will have a boatload of money to spend. Spending wisely is another issue, altogether. I'll try to break it all down, later. I don't feel up to it, now. Cots has us $76M under the tax line, next year. I think that is counting Bregman staying.

Casas had already proven he was the worst defensive 1Bman in MLB. Nobody was even close. HIS only slot was DH- not Devers! At least try Devers at 1B. If he's better, he plays all or mostly 1B, and rests at DH, some games. If he's about the same on D (ugh!) then pair-share DH and 1B between Casas and Devers and maybe it helps keep them both healthier and engaged. If he's worse (almost impossible,) the Casas stays at 1B and Devers is the forvers DH. I'm not seeing why this had to be such a big area of contention, except that Devers felt offended by the request. Bregman was clearly the much better 3Bman, and we had Campbell, Story and Mayer available at middle infield, so a big NO on Bregman at 2B. The Bregman signing made us a much better team on O, on D and with the Lefty-righty unbalance issue. The biggest conflict should have been, and was on this chat site, where does Yoshida fit- not how can we soothe Devers' ego? How can we walk on eggshells?

While I agree, they should have involved talking to Devers about possible moves before signing Bregman. They should have mentioned 1B and DH, not one at the exclusion of the other. That being said, a GM should be permitted to believe his players will play where they are asked to play, especially if it is for an obvious improvement for the team. (The GM should also expect his manager to ask the player to do what is best for the team.) I'm not sure what was said and what was not said, asked or told. Nobody know for sure. I've wanted Devers to try 1B over the winter for several years. Who knows, maybe he'd have ended up liking it. At least we'd find that out, while getting an idea, if he could be any good at it. (Being better than Casas was a low bar to meet or pass.) We failed to do that, for whatever reason, and apparent promises made by Bloom did not help. This is a business and baseball is the job Devers chose to do. Things change all the time. I bought my Honda at a dealership that gave me free oil changes for life. 4 years later, they sold the dealership to someone who kept the same business name. The new ownership group refused to honor the previous agreement. Did it suck for me? Yes. Was I pissed? yes, Did I get over it and understand that's how business works? Yes. No doubt, Bloom, Brez and others made some serious mistakes- both commissions and omissions. They lacked foresight and candor, and it's not a one and done thing- it's been ongoing, but that does not take a player totally off the hook. A player has a duty to do what is asked of him, and in this case, I feel it was a very clear ask for the betterment of the team. Bregman fell into our laps, and I'm not going to bash Brez for jumping at the chance to get him, and thinking he could find a way to make it work. (There was the poorer option of playing Bregman at 2B as a last resort, IMO.) I never expected the reaction we got from Devers. The fact that he viewed himself as a good defender was not really surprising, but he was wrong- bigtime wrong. I realize it's not always easy for someone to be a DH, but it's not rocket science, and when he said "I can't be asked to learn every position" or something like that, it was absurd. I don't see DH as having to learn new skills. It's just learning what to do with yourself between ABs. Asking him to learn to play 1B was one new position that has been a very common move in baseball history (3B to 1B.) It's too bad it went down this way. I'm not sure which single person is most to blame. I'm not even one to put much stock in assigning blame, especially total blame to one person, and hindsight balme games have always bugged me, but certainly somebody did something wrong. here, and I see it as multiple people doing several things wrong, over time. I'm not sure we will ever come close to agreeing on who is most to blame, and maybe nobody has over 50% of the blame, since so many hands are involved. In many ways, this is worse than Betts, because with him, it seemed to be all about JH not wanting to go all in, and Betts saying he wanted to test the market. I assigned no blame to DD or Cora. This one has too many people involved with some share of blame and wrong-doing.