moonslav59

I've said over and over, I doubt we sign Alonso or Schwarber. I'll even add Bichette to the list. What I'm saying is we should. If they don't want to go "long" then sign Suarez, Hoskins, Merrill Kelly, Matz and trade for Ryan. None of them should be "large AND long." (Maybe sub Polanco for Suarez.)

Indeed, but wouldn't you feel better if we had a better roster on paper, so if we have injuries- maybe about the same as 2025, we'd be better positioned to improve? The one thing this team had, last year was decent depth. It was not that great at 1B, 3B and 2B, but the OF 4 amigos) , Catcher (Narvaez), rotation and pen depth made a big difference over the season. (Getting Lowe helped, too.) We need more high quality players without compromising the depth and balance, too much. If you look at our 9 batting slots, we might have been the most balanced line-up in MLB. When you look at what we got from our rotation depth, one could argue we don't make the playoffs without Dobbins and Early. Our pen depth did what was needed. We keep lamenting the loss of Betts, Bogey, Devers and even JD, but we've only added one star on offense, and he just opted out.

Let's assume Anthony replaces Devers, in kind, despite less power. We still will likely lose Lowe (.790) and Ref (.828), which is about a half season of PAs (330ish.) So, now we need 630 PAs from Anthony to equal and 330 more from Hoskins for that and then to probably do way better than Casas and others who played some 1B. Who adds O value in 2026? Mayer, Campbell, Garcia? Also, "top 10" is debatable. T12th in wRC+ They did place 9th or 10th in other categories like OPS, away OPS & wRC+. I guess 10th best is good enough for some. Don't we have to get better to improve our odds? Hoskins should help, but we will be counting on better health and upticks from the vets & kids to have a chance to improve. I really see no reason to expect better from Story, Duran, Abreu, Narvaez, Rafaela, Romy & Bregman, assuming he returns. Anthony playing more should help. Mayer, Campbell & garcia might give us a boost- maybe even a jolt, but who is counting on that?

I do think all those team might want Casas, but none would give up good talent to get him. Maybe an DSL/FCL promising prospect.

$40M was another total.

If we go large and long, it should be for Alonso or Schwarber not Bo. I'd rather go shorter on Suarez and Hoskins or Polanco & Hoskins than long on Bo.

Well, if Casas, Breggie, Abreu and Anthony were healthy in 2025, they'd have been good, too. Why do we keep praying on excellent health, instead of trying to significantly improve the team from year to year? Even really good teams often look to improve. The idea should be to move towards great. We lost Devers. We gained half an Anthony. Maybe Hoskins keeps us at middle tier on O.

Agreed. He's got feelers out there, and maybe that's why he's waiting.

Thought so. Gotta think agents get info, somehow.

Post AUG 15th, they were 19th in wRC+ and 15th in OPS. Tied for 16th in wOBA 19th in runs scored

Top half-middle third is meh. Losing Devers (.905) Ref (.828) and Lowe (.790) could be made up for by more PAs from Anthony, Mayer and Abreu (+Yoshida/Casas/Romy/Campbell-Garcia) but that is not even close to a likely equalizer. IMO, just bringing back Bregman and signing Hoskins/Naylor/O'Hearn or Josh Bell, as I've seen suggested often is falling way short.

Agreed, and only his age progression chart looks better than Bregman on offense. It's a sideway move on offense and a step down on D, especially if he demands SS. (Even if he plays 2B, it means Story does not move there, so no big gain, anyway.)

I'm kinda surprised that so many think our offense will be good enough by just bringing Breggie back and adding a moderately-priced 1Bman.

The team hit .715 after AUG 15th 80+ PAs .909 Anthony .802 Story .790 Lowe .731 Duran .709 Romy .688 Narvaez .680 Yoshida .625 Bregman .628 Rafaela (DHam & Ref did will at about 50 PAs, and Eaton did okay. Their OPS bumped up the team OPS and none are in the 2025 plans in any significant way. Lowe's .790 might be gone, too.)

Trading Masa would likely mean we pay $12-14M of his $18M x 2, unless we add a prospect- maybe a borderline Rule 5 guy like Mullins or Sandlin...maybe a guy like Kelly, Wink, Criswell or Murphy would lower the cash needed and improve the tax line budget. Dumping part of Hicks' deal could help that, too.

If we have a fixed winter budget, we won't get 4 highly talented players. I'd rather we narrow it to 2-3, and if we trade for 1, adding 2 at about $45M might be enough to get what we need. The 4th slot will have to be a dice roll on in-house options like 2B/3B (Mayer) DH (Yoshida/Romy/Duran/Campbell/Garcia) or 1B (Casas/Romy/Campbell or convert Duran/Yoshida)

The money appears to be about $45M to line one and $65M to line two. My suggestion is we trade for a SP2 and use the money to go large on 2 players- 3 tops. We have some depth that can cover the borderline needy slots, and maybe we can also bring back matz and Ref, assuming we trade an OF'er or two. $45M -$65M/ 2 is a lot of AAV. $65M/3 is no chump change either. If one is Hoskins, as you suggest, his cost will probably not be more than $12-15M AAV, so that would leave $30-33 M for 1 player (Bregman/Alonso/Schwarber) or $30-35M for 2 players (maybe Suarez, Matz & Ref) If we go to the second line, it could be $50-53M/2 or 3. That could be Suarez, Polanco & Hoskins or maybe Bregman, Hoskins and M Kelly.

The ones who opted out want to get teams to be interested, immediately. I'm thinking Story stays. Does he officially have to opt out before his agent can legally talk to other teams about offers?

Maybe a hard floor is unrealistic, but if you told the revenue sharing recipients that they only get the amount of money from sharing that they increase their player budget by, maybe it would spur spending. The deal could even give 125% of a budget increase in revenue sharing, but they get nothing, if they don't increase their budget.

Yes, I remember you presenting Hoskins' profile, before, but I have to think we need a bigger upgrade than just him. I don't see a Bregman return and 300 more PAs from Anthony as breaking even with the 830 PAs of the 2025 Bregman & Devers, .905 Devers (15 HRs and 58 RBI in 334) .821 Bregman (18 HRs and 62 RBI in 495) 33 Hrs and 120 RBI in 830 PAs. Then, we need Story, Duran, Abreu, Narvaez, Romy and Rafaela to keep the '25 pace. While Hoskins should easily beat the .691 combined 1B OPS of 2025, he may not top Lowe's .790. Yoshida might improve on .696. So might Mayer at .674. I'm not sure any others jump out as good bets to do better. We may also lose Ref's .838 OPS, but there are plenty of addition by subtraction players we will lose or play less: .659 Toro in 284 PAs (10th ranked in PAs) .664 Campbell in 264 (11th but could play more) .590 DHam in 194 (14th) .500 Wong in 188 (15th) .790 Lowe in 119 (17th but not an addition by subtraction) .580 Casas in 112 (18th and has a shot at a big improvement) .661 Sogard in 104 (19th) .731 Eaton in 90 (20th and above the league OPS.) I realize you are trying to be realistic, and this type of plan may very well mirror what Brez ends up doing, but IMO, it falls way short.

Criswell could make 11.

It's a realistic ask, and we may not even go that far, but even if Breggie returns and somehow he and more PAs from Roman makes up for the 830 PAs of 2025's Devers+ Breggie, is Hoskins improving on the .691 OPS going to bump us up a level? Hoskins: .748 in '25, .732 last 2 years and .760 in his last 3 seasons (missing 2023.) Are you counting on better from Story, Duran, Abreu, Narvaez & Rafaela? We all know how much you count on Mayer to go 150+ games. Suarez might be a big boost on O over Bregman, but we might lose something on D and clubhouse leadership. This is the time to go bold, or at least bolder than just adding Hoskins. Hell, Lowe gave us .790 and our O fell apart.

Yup, add two big bats and a solid #2 SP. Someone's been saying that all along. Anything less may not even be status quo. We can hope on the kids, and maybe it works. Maybe one big bat and a SP would be enough, but we can spend up to the line and get 2 + 1.

We're bringing 330 PAs of Devers back? We can't just look at team OPS when our home park is Fenway. We were T 12th in wRC+ at a whopping 103. (Devers probably added the 3.) The Athletics finished ahead of us. OPS+ 118 NYY 113 SEA 108 TOR 106 BOS 9th in road OPS is not something I'm beating the drum to bring back as is (without Devers.)

Well, we had Anthony for 300 and Devers for 330, so it's not like we're adding a big bat to replace Duran or Abreu.