moonslav59

Thus Spoke BTV.

If we trade DHam, does that mean we keep Grissom, or do we just go with Sogard and Romy as infield depth?

I'd probably give Harrison (maybe Fitts) & DHam for Yandy. How about DHam & Sandlin (or Mullins) for Yandy just before the Rule 5 draft.

The thing is, we could trade 2 OF'ers to teams in great need for OF help but not $500M to spend. Duran is due $8M in 2026, then 2 arbs. Abreu had 3 arbs after one pre-arb season. Rafaela gets $48M/6, which is a bargain for a 3+ WAR CF'er. Campbell $60M/8 might be a financial gamble, but Jh Garcia has a few pre-arb years to go. Duran & Tolle for K Marte? Abreu, Clarke & Sandlin for Ryan Sign Tucker & Hoskins

If Refsnyder does not come back, look for Abreu to get a shot at FT play. He probably deserves it over Duran. Better D and better OPS vs LHPs: .676 to .600 in 2025.) Even if Ref does return, they may use Ref to platoon DH with Yoshida. To me, I agree on not "selling low" on Casas, but keep him as the much needed depth at 1B (and DH.) Count on Mayer as depth at SS, 3B and 2B with the idea that he probably plays FT, if healthy, and with 3 positions to choose from, the odds are he gets to play: we just don't hand him a FT job in January. We basically have to hand a FT OF slot to Anthony. I think with Campbell and Jh garcia as depth, we cana fford to trade one from Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. With Ref & Yoshida as corner OF depth, we could maybe even afford to trade 2 OF'ers with maybe one being Campbell or Jh Garcia. I totally agree with you: depth is nice but not at the expense of leaving some key positions weak. I don't think we'll run low on OF'ers, despite seeing Eaton play the OF at the end of 2025. I keep saying Duran looks like the best one to trade, because I think the return would be high, and he may be close to decline years. His defense is not as good as any of the others we have, he's paid more than all except Anthony and his years of control is the shortest of all. That being said, I don't do it, if we don't add a big bat to take his place and another to take Bregman's place. Something like Suarez/Alonso/Schwarber for Bregman and Alonso/Schwarber/Tucker/KMarte for Duran. Add the return of Anthony for 600+ PAs and our offense would be top 5.

I hope the Sox brass doesn't put too much hope into returning players from injury and fail to fill 2-4 slots that need reliable players (3B, 2B, 1B, SP) SP: Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts (Houck is out until 2027.) RP: Slaten, Wink, Criswell, Guerrero 1B: Casas 3B/2B: Mayer LF/RF: Anthony

Here is maybe a realistic winter outcome: Bregman & Gio walk. Story stays. Ref comes back for one more season. We trade Duran, Clarke & Mullins for Joe Ryan. We trade Hicks, Wong and Sandlin for Sean Murphy We sign 37 yr old M. Kelly (2 yrs), 29 yr old G. Torres (4 yrs + option) and 33 yr old Hoskins (2 yrs + option) SP: Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Early/Harrison/Perales RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Tolle, Weissert, Bernardino, Criswell, Fitts, Kelly/Moran/Guerrero/Murphy/Sandlin C: Narvaez, Murphy (DH) 1B: Hoskins, Casas/Romy-Campbell 2B: Torres, Romy, DHam 3B: Mayer, Story, Eaton, Romero SS: Story, Mayer, Sogard LF: Anthony, Jh Garcia, Campbell CF: Rafaela, Jh Garcia RF: Abreu, Refsnyder-JH Garcia DH: Murphy, Yoshida- Romy/Refsnyder

Exactly, and then you get surprise guys who seem to do better in the bigs than they did in the minors. While Houck was pretty highly ranked on the sox prospect list, I don't think people saw him as better than others before and after him in the system. Mata and Groome were ranked above him. In 2020, T Ward and Song were above him. How about Crawford and Dobbins? Crawford made it to #16 in 2022, then fell to #23. He had more than 8 pitchers ahead of him, including Brandon Walter who once posted a 68-3 K:BB ratio in AA! Kutter's career minor league ratio was 3.5:1. Dobbins was ranked 11th and 12th, recently. He had 4 pitchers ahead of him, including Fitts and Sandlin. Dobbins posted a 176:65 K:BB in 126 IP in '24 (AA/AAA) His career K:BB was 3.0. Neither looked like great K:BB pitchers. Not bad, but not great. Maybe I'm too high on Holobetz and Fajardo. Maybe I just really want those trades to work out to further prove Brez knows what he's doing, even when it looks like maybe he doesn't. Maybe I'm just a homer.

It looked like we greatly improved on fundamentals over the season, but it did come back to bite us in the ass in the Yankee series. Defense: First 81 games: 319 ERs allowed/ 50 UnEarned Last 81 games: 279/ 28 Baserunning: First 81: 4.0 fangraphs rating (5th) Last 81: 4.1 (6th)

My EOY Power Rankings (overlooking playoff results) 1. MIL 2. PHI 3. NYY 4. LAD 5. TOR 6. CHC 7. SEA 8. BOS 9. SDP 10. CIN

I suppose we could trade two OF'er and sign Tucker. It sounds more complicated than it is, and I think teams would be beating down our doors to get Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. Maybe we package one with some pitching prospect for K Marte. Maybe we sign Torres. Maybe we package another for a pitcher like Ryan, Lopez or Keller. Maybe we trade for Y Diaz or sign Hoskins or Naylor and not Alonos, Suarez or Schwarber. Lots of options.

Great stuff, Hugh, and you are right about K:BB rates. I mentioned Holobetz as "the prize" of the Priester trade, while many were all over YRod as being a poor return. The age factor is very significant, too, as some of the youngest players are putting up pretty good numbers against much older batters. I lowered the IP to 30 and came up with these K/BBs: 8.2 Carlson A+ 24 6.1 Monegro AA 22 5.9 Holobetz A+/AA 23 5.9 Van Belle AAA 5.8 Tolle A+/AA/AAA (then MLB) 22 5.7 Moran (Rehabed) 5.3 Sansone A-/A+/AA 26 (IL) 5.1 McShane A-/A+ 22 Selected: 3.7 Drohan 26 3.3 Early 23 & Uberstine 26 3.1 Fajardo 19 2.9 Futrell 2.6 Wehunt, 2.5 Travieso, 2.4 Mullins, 2.2 Clarke Valera at 4.6 but under 30 IP. 2024-2025 Selected w 50+ IP: 9.1 Paez 6.2 Sansone 4.8 Ingrassia 3.9 Monegro

1. It's not really $40M. 2. If we don't spend his money, we get worse. 3. I think his leadership was a big reason we made the playoffs. 4. Almost all major FA signings are gross overpays 5. I do think we can spend the money in a better way.

Two Top 10 teams lost: #7 Penn ST #9 Texas My top 20 1. Ohio St 2. Ole Miss 3. OKL 4. ORE 5. MIA 6. TX A&M 7. IN 8. ALA 9. GA 10. Tx Tech 11. LSU 12. TN 13. GA Tech 14. Missouri 15. Michigan 16. Illinois 17. Penn St 18. Texas 19. Notre Dame 20. BYU

Is that you, Fred?

I was just jabbing Splendid. I'm a big Brez fan. I'm not sure JH will spend as much as we need. I got hopeful after the Bregman signing, and he also went from $10M/1 to $21M/1 on a SP'er, but then he dumped the Devers contract, so I'm back to wanting proof he's turned a new leaf. If he doesn't realize this is the window open wide, he's blind.

So you assume JH will spend the money and Brez will spend it wisely.

They could trade 4 and sign Tucker.

They think they are saving money, and I guess they did pay less than $20-30M a year for a long term deal, but they've spent... $11M Perez (2 yrs) $10M Richards (1) $10M Paxton (1) $10M Kluber (1) $12M Wacha (1) + Hill (1) $21M Buehler (1) That's about $75M on SP'ers, with almost all of them failing to some extent. Wacha and Hill did okay, but missed some time to injury. $10M Hendriks (1 as RP) and $8M/2 for Diekman, who we unloaded early on. Jansen, Martin & Chapman worked out fine.

We already have an OF'er who can take Duran's place, and he'll be better on D. I'd love to trade Yoshida, so Duran can DH, but that is likely just a dream. I admit it seems counterintuitive to know we need to improve our offense and then advocate trading Duran- a top 3 offensive player on the team. I'd be okay trading Abreu or even Rafaela, instead, but IMO, and OF'er not named Anthony should be traded. We'd still have Jh Garcia & Campbell (both RHBs) in reserve. We have a much bigger needs than 4th and 5th OF strength. I'm not for trading Duran, if we don't add Alonso, Schwarber or maybe Suarez or K Marte- maybe two, if Bregman bolts.

IMO, FA SP'ers are too costly and long term and risky. We've had good luck trading for SP'ers, so maybe that has biased me. We should trade for a SP. Use the finances and maybe a second big trade for 2-3 big bats (1-2, if Bregman stays.)

I like to look at OPS Against, but I admit it has not been a great predictor of MLB success. IP matter, too. Here is a list I find important; OPS Against (IP) ERA .480 Clarke (38) 4.03 A-/A+ (60K:27 BB) .537 E Rivera (87) 2.48 A+/AA (108:46) .568 Fajardo (72) 2.25 FCL/A- (83:27) .575 Mullins (102) 2.21 A+/AA (123:51) .592 Tolle (92) 3.04 A+/AA/AAA (MLB not included) 133:23 .596 Early (100) 2.60 AA/AAA (MLB not included) 132:40 .623 Rogers (105) 3.09/A+/AA (129:57) .627 Aita (115) 3.98 A-/A+ (99:30) .657 Holobetz (101) 3.04 A+/AA (89:15 best ratio on this list)

Too bad the Yanks didn't start Gil in game 3. TOR 10 NYY 1

Weren't you the one who said we should trade for a catcher? (Murphy or Rushing) IMO, we should try to pool our financial and trade capital to add the best 3, maybe 4 players we can afford. I'd suggest.... Not in any order 1. 3B: Bregman, Suarez or Mayer/Story? 2. 2B: K Marte, B Lowe, Torres or Mayer/Story? 3. 1B: Alonso, Schwarber, Suarez or Casas/Campbell/Romy? 4. #2SP: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo, Merrill Kelly or Giolito/Keller? I think I trust Mayer at 3B, 2B or SS more than Casas/Campbell/Romy at 1B, so if we have to choose one to skip, it would be 2B or 3B. That makes it this if it's 3 not 4: SP 1B 2B or 3B

That would be ideal. I'm sure he thinks he deserves a shot at more than being a platoon player, and this year's numbers support the idea that maybe he has earned a shot at playing more- perhaps FT. 2021-2023: .600 OPS in 239 PAs 2024: .723 OPS in 216 PAs(.879 v L/.498 v R) 2025: .826 OPS in 341 PAs (.978 v L/.718 v R) 2021-2024 combined: .802 v L/ .532 v R He'd probably get a chance to play FT on other teams, but I doubt we pencil him in for that in 2026. .718 is not great and might be an outlier. Maybe he can platoon 1B with Lowe or Casas, although Casas had done well vs LHPs to start his career (.814 v L and .796 v R) More likely he can platoon at 2B or DH.