moonslav59

Did Brez shop Buhler?

I wish we'd see an upgrade over Toro at 1B vs RHPs (70% of our games.) 1B is a hitter position. Sub .600 needs an upgrade. Call up Campbell!

I'm seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. The trade for Crochet rivals the Sale, Beckett, Schilling and Pedro trades, but has a way to go. On this past winter FA signings: Buehler: bust, so far. Sandoval: TBD Chapman: Great! Wilson: Great for the money. (The 2024 Gio signing has moved from the bust column to pretty decent in 2025.) Yes, the Sale & Priester trades look horrible and the Buehler & Hendriks signings look real bad. I can't blame anyone for not believing in a farm change with pitching, until we see it, but isn't Bello, Dobbins, Crawford and Houck about as good as we've seen from the farm in over a decade? It's still not great, but it's not bad, either. While Fitts, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink and others were "developed" more by other clubs, we did get them as prospects. The emphasis on drafting,increased IFA signing bonuses and trading for prospect pitching has taken an enormous step up, and we now see 3 of our top 4 prospects as pitchers and 7 of our top 9 (Tolle, Perales, Witherspoon, then Clarke, Valera, Early & Sandlin. We also have 9 pitchers ranked #10-27th (Phillips, Eyanson, Paez, Fajardo, Uberstine, Mullins, Delzine, Wehunt & Cason.) Don't be surprised if some of the pitchers jump into the top 20 or 30, soon: Holobetz, J Bello, Monegro, Aita, Travieso, Ingrassia, Foutch, Futrell, Morgan, Tygart, Neely, D Reyes or Patton. The effort is there, now.

That is likely a fact, especially since 2020. Even the Price signing looks bad on paper. (Nate was technically a FA signing, but I don't really count that one.) Lackey was no big prize. We can maybe go back 10-12 years or more.

You gotta see some merit in this idea: We can only play 3 OF'ers at a time, and unless Rafaela plays 2B or someone DHs, one of our 4 OF'er sits, every game and offers zero value, except as a PH. The theory is this: Our 4th OF'er gets downgraded from 1 of the 4 to Garcia or Yoshida/Ref. The 3rd OF'er gets "downgraded" from Duran or Abreu to Anthony. The worst SP'er (Buehler, Fitts, Criswell) gets upgraded to _____ (Ryan? Keller?) Does the upgrade at pitching outweigh the possible downgrade at OF3 and OF4? You may disagree with the idea, but I think you have to see merit in the idea. It doesn't always work out as planned, of course. Rafaela at 2B might save our season, if Mayer does not return. I felt the same about Grissom being an large enough upgrade at 2B to offset the risky Sale in our rotation, and we all saw how that one worked out.

Yup, more than 25M a year x 8.

True, but ultimately Brez would not raise the offers or accept less than what was offered for anyone else. I gotta believe we could have gotten better than May & Matz by adding 1-2 Mullins, Paez, Wehunt, Monegro, Blies, Cespedes or Castro. For a rental, I can understand not adding Jh Garcia, Romero, Early or Sandlin. I agree. We will likely never know many of the specifics offers made to us and turned down.

3.49 is better than most team's #2s and 3's and some #1s. The OPSA, WHIP and FIP are more in line with an okay #3 and decent #4/5.

Agree. I am very happy with Brez, despite the Sale and Priester trades and a disappointing deadline day. I like our team and really like our future outlook. IMO, Brez did nothing to hurt our future at the deadline, so that part is fine. I think he'll get bold, this winter with signings and a big trade or two.

We seemingly got more for Devers than we did in any other vet trade since maybe Betts, but the again Jeter Downs sucked. Okay, Vaz for Abreu was better. We got Wink & Franchy for Beni. We got DHam & JBJ for Renfroe. We got Fitts and Weissert for Dugo. (Is that better than Harrison, Hicks, Tibbs and J Bello?) We got Grissom for Sale (not a prospect) I see the trade as largely a salary and attitude dump. I do think they feel we will end up with a couple plus players, perhaps Harrison and Bello. Hicks was a flyer and partial salary offset. Tibbs is already gone for a rental.

I think he can be "faulted" for being reluctant to trade an OF'er, when we have 4+ of them, but it is "understandable. (I think one gets traded, this winter, so it might not be based on "reluctance." I may have been based on the idea that Rafaela may be needed at 2B more than any of us want that to be. I agree on not trading top pitching prospects for a rental anything, but trading one or more for a controlled pitcher would change that dynamis, to me. I know it's easy to speak in theory, but I think we could have added someone like Mullins, Paez, Monegro or Wehunt to get a slightly better pitcher(s) than Matz and May. I would not have added Early or Valera for a better rental. Sandlin, maybe. Not Tolle or Perales, for sure. I also wonder what adding Garcia or Romero might have netted us. I doubt adding Castro, Cespedes or even Blies would have given us a big uptick, but who knows.

Criswell was much better as a SP'er in 2024. 3.49 as SP (.726 OPSA) in 85 IP 7.53 as RP (.900) in 14 IP Tiny 2025 sample size: 1.29 SP in 7 IP 5.06 RP in 11 IP Career: 3.54 in 97 IP as SP (.739 OPSA) 6.05 in 58 IP as RP (.864)

I guess that explains the implosion. It might have helped, if he had the surgery in May, but such is life. 2027, here we come!

Barely good enough to make the 5th or 6th playoffs slot. (maybe 50% odds) Slight chance of still winning the division (maybe 15- 20%)- thanks to TOR not being bold at the deadline. The chances of going to the WS are slight (5-10%)- winning it is an extreme longshot (1-4%), IMO. Had we traded for Ryan or Keller and a decent 1B platoon, I think we'd be top 3 in the AL with much better odds of winning the AL (maybe 25-35%) and a decent chance at a ring (10-20%) I looked at fangraphs after writing the above, and they have this... Odds of making playoffs: 90%+ DET, TOR, NYY & HOU (in that order) 82% SEA 66% BOS (9% chance to win ALE. TOR 58%/NYY 33%) 35% TEX 15% KCR & CLE Win WS 10% NYY 7-8% SEA, DET, TOR (in order) 3% BOS 2% TEX NL Teams winning WS 20% LAD 12% PHI 7% NYM, CHC 5% SDP, MIL Basically, 10 teams have a better chance at a ring than us, but 4 AL teams do.

I'm in the minority, but I like the yellow jerseys. The green are okay.

We are essentially paying Sandoval about the same as Giolito ($18M/yr) Previous 2 years before signing: 4.89 (86 ERA+) Giolito 4.70 FIP in 346 IP 4.45 (98) Sandoval 4.07 in 224 IP (significantly less IP, but a better pitcher) Previous 3 years before signing: 4.43 (96) Giolito 4.39 in 525 3.84(110) Sandoval 3.68 in 373 (Still less IP but even better numbers) Previous 500 or so IP 4.43 Gio (2022-2024) 3.80 Sandoval (2021-2024) Still 60 less IP from Sandoval, despite adding one more year. Sandoval was bad from 2019-2020.

Read the opinions at the time of this trade. I don't see anybody all that upset about the trade. Most did not comment, so I'm not sure how upset anyone really was.

He only has to be better than our #5 SP'er: Buehler or May. To me, we have to give Buehler another start or two. We traded for May, so they will give him a look, and probably more than just 1-2 starts. Criswell may not get another start, this season. There is also Harrison looking to get a shot. I've been higher on Criswell as a SP'er than some, here, but with the May trade, I'm not seeing him as being a top 5 option by Cora & Brez. That could change.

Just less than a third of the season to go, so a lot still to be determined. Our last few seasons have seen some epic failure to end the season, but this team has a different "feel" to me. Our pitching is ranked: 3rd in ERA- (88) Pen 2nd/SP 9th 10th in fWAR (not far from 7th or 8th or 12th) SP: 16th/Pen: 5th 10th in xFIP and 13th in FIP We've let up 65 unearned runs and many more that were more on the D than the pitcher. Top AL contenders UnERs allowed 65 BOS 50 SEA 41 DET & NYY 35 HOU & TOR 32 TEX Fangraphs has our offense ranked 11th (not really close to 10th.) We are ranked 7th in everyday player fWAR due to an questionable ranking of 3rd in DRS. We are 10th in wRC+, but just 1 behind DET & PHI and 3 behind the NYM. We are 5th in OPS at .753, but the home .787 OPS skews those numbers. We are 10th in away OPS, so to me, we look a lot like the 10th best offense in MLB and the 10th best staff in MLB. That's not too bad, since a balanced team seems to do better than ones with major weaknesses.

It's doubtful he pitched in 2025 (CBS says "out for season"), so my guess is, for now, it's Opening Day 2026.

He can't pitch for 5 more days is all I got.

Just one good start by Criswell is enough for me to put him above May & Buehler. That's how badly I view our 4-5 slots, right now. I have way more faith in Buehler than May. Don't ask me why.

All of these guys listed could see a MLB GS in 2026. That's pretty impressive rotation depth. Add Giolito, since I doubt he reaches 140 IP for 2025, which would make the 2026 option mutual. He'd need 66.1 IP over his possible 10 more GS. Maybe Wink might be a SP in '26. It's hard to know if Crawford & Sandoval will be ready on opening day, and Houck is a total mystery, but all 3 have legit claims to a rotation slot. I'd slot a 100% healthy staff like this: 1. Crochet 2. Giolito 3. Bello 4. Houck (making an assumption, here)/ Tolle, if he's ready. 5. Dobbins (also on the IL) 6. Sandoval (same here) 7. Crawford (once again) 8. Harrison 9. Fitts 10. Tolle (by May or June) 11. Perales (by July) 12. Criswell 13. Sandlin (more ML ready than the two draftees, IMO) T14. Witherspoon, Clarke and Early The pen list is longer, even without including converted SP options. It's not as high quality, though, especially w/o Chapman & Wilson.

Promoting Mayer, earlier, might have helped, too. I agree on Anthony. The Sale and Priester trades hurt us, badly, but IMO, Brez has made way more plus moves than bad ones, and not just Crochet. Bregman, Chapman & Wilson to name just 3. (I was not high on the Chapman & Wilson when signed.) Narvaez was brilliant. Plus, it was the Yanks we robbed. Sticking with Rafaela & finding PAs for Romy vs lefties. While the farm's pitching improvement is speculative, I feel he has already flipped the script on a decades long issue with developing good to great pitchers on the farm. Even if we fail at this, I applaud the immense effort made to boost the staff, at every level. Okay, the Sale and Priester deals hurt like hell. He's barely traded pitchinga way, and those two ended up being bad choices to trade. Other pitchers traded included pitchers coming back, except for the O'Neill trade. (Maybe I missed another one.) Brez has added these pitcher w MLB IP for the Sox from '24-'25 (30+ IP): Crochet, Chapman, Giolito, Wilson, Criswell, Fitts, Buehler, Sandoval, Slaten, Weissert & Booser Chase Anderson & Newcomb 5-25 IP: I Campbell, Hicks, Burdi, Hendriks, Paxton, B Keller, B Horn, Alcala, L Garcia, L Sims & Priester While Bloom set the bar very low, this is a pretty good report card. In just 2 seasons, he's added these pitching prospects (SP.com rankings) 1. Tolle 4. Witherspoon 6. Clarke 9. Sandlin (trade) 15. Phillips 16. Eyanson 20. Fajardo (trade) 27. Delzine 28. Wehunt 29. C Cason 34. Holobetz (trade) 41. Travieso 45. J Bello (trade) Futrell, D Reyes & B Morgan Gartrell, Cordero, Aita, Tygart, Brooks, Foutch, Finley, Patton, Neely, Judice & others I gotta say, that's an impressive 2 years of additions.

Not as bad as the Sale trade. LOL!