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Everything posted by moonslav59
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
As of now, Story is the "right option" over Campbell. I'm fine with Story at 2B and Mayer at SS, but would not view a flip as keeping the team from winning or not. I'm not for firing Cora, despite the issues we've identified, namely not even being able to politely ask Devers to play 1B, let alone demand he does. I'm not for firing Brez, despite the Sale trade that backfired, the whole Devers fiasco and the Buehler signing. I feel I'd be a hypocrite, since I thought the Sale trade made sense and the Buehler signing was better than all of the Kluber, Richards and Paxton signings combined. (Oops, I forgot the Gio signing, but that one may be moving to the TBD column from the bust column, soon.) Maybe my views change. -
I'm not sure what we will do, but personally, I see an OF logjam and some great needs in other areas (SP, Pen, 1B and maybe 2B, but I think Breg's return pushed Mayer to middle IF and we don't add a 2Bman.) We maye trade Abreu, not Duran, but Abreu has more years of control and has proven he can play plus D in fenway's difficult RF. That is why I think Duran goes, in order to make room for Anthony and eventually Jh Garcia (Campbell, Bleis & Cespedes can also be considered for the future OF.) This may happen in the winter- not the deadline, but teams get desperate and may view Duran as worth overpaying for. I'm not anti-Duran. For a team that just lost Devers, trading our 2nd or 3rd best offensive weapon from 2024-2025 seems foolish, but I think Brez and Cora like Rafaela as our CF'er until the end of time, and appreciate Abreu's RF skills. Having Campbell, Refsnyder, Jh Garcia and maybe even Yoshida as OF options, makes trading an OF'er a must, IMO.
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Did someone say "obsessive?" I resemble that remark. There is no way I ever stop being a Sox fan, until I kick the can. If I could make it through 3+ decades of futility and bonehead management combined with stingy owners, I can make it through whatever lies ahead. No doubt, the tease we got from 2004 to 2018, spoiled us, and this is now year 7 of "wait till next year" hitting us in June, July and sometimes August (except for 2021.) This is not fun, at all. It seems like less fun than those other decades of futility, but to me, there is one saving grace: our farm, group of young & controlled players and the hint that JH may be back to spending more than the last 5-6 years. The fact is, even after trading Devers, we are still at or over the tax line, depending on what site you look at. I'm still optimistic about our future- just not really the immediate one (2025.) If I knew JH would allow us to go "all in" this winter, I'd be more than fine with a fire sale of all FAs-to-be plus maybe one or two of the 2 year guys, left- like Duran. Since I don't trust that to happen, I'm having mixed feelings about being buyers, sellers or both. Even standing pat makes some sense, if it looks like returning players are playing well. "It's a mixed up, muddled up, shook up world..."
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I totally get why people are pissed. I am, too. I get why Brez is getting the blame, and he is at fault for the bad moves, most notably Sale, Buehler and Devers, but I'm not going to sit here and say I loved almost everything he's done, including way more good deals than bad, farm building and a much greater focus on pitching, then say fire him, because the deals I liked are not working. I know, I know, you guys are probably thinking, "Fire Moonslav, too!" I don't think he's made more bad moves than good, and the bad moves he made all had legitimate reasons for doing so. Here's a novel idea: let's blame the players.
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I'm not sure I want us to be buyers, due to over-pricing that is worse than off season trades. My idea of deadline buying is the Beeks for Nate and Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber type deals, if at all, and assuming we are still in the race. If our rotation is still in shambles at the deadline, I'm selling, everything not tied down plus Duran. Maybe we do a little of both, but I do not want to pay big for 2 month rentals.
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That is a big part of the equation, and the "total" is not in, yet,
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I'm all for trades like Beeks for Nate and Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. I was kinda hopeful the Luis Garcia or Lucas sims trades would work, but that was a much smaller scale idea. We have some duplicated values and blocked players and prospects. I'm against overpaying at the deadline, but there are some deals that can get done. Plan 1: capitalize on the overpaying for good talent by trading Duran or Abreu, either in a three way deal, or use the prospect haul to then overpay for a solid #2 or 3 SP'er (by adding a mid level couple prospects.) Plan 2: just trade guys like Romero, Bleis, Cespedes and maybe some of our prospect pitchers for a solid SP'er. I guess I might part with Arias or Jh Garcia, but that seems too high for a rental. Plan 3: Have enough faith in Arias, Romero and others and trade Campbell. Have faith in Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Campbell and Jh Garcia in the OF and trade Anthony. (No way I trade Mayer.) It's rare that a team trades for a rental, then extends him, but maybe that is something else we could do.
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You seemed upset, when I ranked Tolle top 5.
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I can see trying to get Abreu to a FT, non platoon role, but Ref has to bat somewhere. I've suggested a DH platoon between Ref & Duran, with Duran in LF vs RHPs. Romy could DH vs lefties, someday, too. Right now, he's needed at 1B. I can see being sellers, and if I was sure, we'd go for it, starting next winter, I might even support the idea, but I trust nothing, these days.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm hoping another righty bat keeps it going... Trevor Story is at .905 since June 7th. 62 PAs .317 4 13 in his last 15 games. Last 4 weeks: .956 Rafaela .929 Romy .848 Refsnyder .795 Toro .767 Story Who da thunk? Mayer, Campbell, Anthony, Duran & Abreu: all under .660. -
I'm very happy with the growth of many of our prospects. A is true with every season, some did not impress as much as hoped, bu there is still a half season left. We will be graduating several of our best prospects, but I think our next class will be fine- maybe not as highly ranked, nationally, but very promising. I'm super high on the Garcia brothers, as always, but Arias, Bleis and a bunch of pitchers have looked very good. BTW, soxprospects.com slotted Tibbs 8th and J Bello 45th. Arias jumped Perales into the #3 slot. Tolle jumped to #5 and Romero dropped to #10.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I do think Story would accept a move, but I also seriously doubt Cora would ever ask him. I'm fine with Mayer at 2B and Story at SS, until Story's last day with the Sox, so I'm not worrying about this. With Devers at 3B, the issue was way different, to me. (Yes, it bothered me that Cora apparently never even asked, let alone told, Devers to play 1B,) I hope Bregman returns in 2016. Unlike some fans, I really like our 2026 outlook, in terms of everyday players: C: Narvaez (Wong is not great as depth, but we could do worse- maybe.) 1B: Casas/Campbell and Toro/Romy 2B: Mayer/Campbell and DHam/Romy SS: Story/Mayer and Romy 3B: Bregman and Toro/Romy LF: Duran/Anthony/Refsnyder and Jh Garcia CF: Rafaela/Duran and Jh Garcia RF: Abreu/Refsnyder/Anthony and Jh Garcia DH: Duran/Refsnyder/Yoshida/Romy -
Agreed. We can't expect to get better than 40-40 with no Devers. All teams have injuries and hopes tied to returning IL players. I'd rather we be sellers than stand pat, at the deadline, but I'm also dead set against trading top young players and prospects for a 2 month rental or two. Sounds familiar? YUP!
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I still think this team is better than .500, and the run differential hints at that being true. With so many teams that were better than us in 2024, doing nothing or even getting worse over the winter, I expected better than 40 and 40. I'm still optimistic, but we've seen too many recent Sox teams get worse in AUG & SEPT, so I have my doubts about 2025.
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I hear you. I'm not 100% sold on Brez, either. I had hoped he'd do more than he did, last deadline, but you know my feelings on the cost of most deadline deals. (Bloom's Schwarber deal beats any one Brez made.) We do have a .500 team, again, and that sucks, but this is not the same team and system as 2022 and 2023. I see improvement and know it takes time.
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Brez deserves some time to prove his moves at improving the focus on farm pitching will work out or not. Not many GMs show instant success in just 2 years. Brez has moved decisively to make major additions to the ML club, especially adding a young pitcher like Crochet and then extending him. He's made several trades to bolster the pitching at every level of the system from MLB down to the lower levels. Almost every trade involved a pitcher, and if it included a pitcher, it resulted in getting back a younger pitcher as part of the package. The only significant trade that did not do this, as far as I know, was the two marginal pitchers we traded for O'Neill. One trade (Dugo) was for 3 pitchers. He drafted more pitchers than I've seen the Sox do in maybe forever. He also paid overslot money to a few of them. He also spent more money on IFA bonuses than Bloom did. In just 2 years, he added all these arms: Crochet Chapman, Wilson, Sandoval and yes, Buehler, Hendriks & Gio, too. Slaten, Fitts, Weissert, Sandlin, Criswell, I Campbell, Priester (since traded) & others Harrison, Hicks, J Bello, Judice, Fajardo, Moran, Vogatsky and other. Okay, he swung and missed with Chase Anderson, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims and James Paxton, mong several other low risk/low cost deals, but I gotta say, the effort is clearly front and center. I get Drew's point about quality trumps development, and I'll add trumping quantity, too, but I think Brez has added some quality. Now, give it some time.
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When is the last time a Sox GM added a Crochet, a Bregman, a Chapman, a Narvaez and a Wilson in one winter? Oh and oops, he signed Buehler, so let's fire Brez.
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I really hate buying at the deadline. It's expensive, in terms of overpaying for 2 month rentals. I do think Brez made a very strong effort to not have to buy at this deadline. He built up a decent rotation depth to at least 10 men deep, I think the statement "waiting until it's fruitless" was more true of Bloom & Co. Brez made a solid attempt, last winter, and he realizes it will be a great overpay to get a pitcher, now. I'd rather get a Crochet in the winter than a guy Like Kikuchi from 2024, who actually did very well, after the trade to HOU. The Astros gave up a lot, and then lost him after 2 months.
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Maybe google it? I remember when it happened. There was a lot of body language, but of course, Cora covered for his player and denied it was about dogging it. While we may not be hearing any players or coaches giving any specifics on clubhouse issues, I find it odd that I have not heard a single player come out and praise Devers for being a great teammate or missing his dugout and clubhouse presence. Sure, they miss his bat, as I do, too. Who know, maybe Cora was right, and maybe Devers was fine in the clubhouse. I never felt there was an issue before, this year, so I could be wrong. It's hard to prove anything based on body language, things left unsaid and Cora defending his players as usual.
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I will say, the Crochet deal showed a boldness Bloom never even dreamed of. The extension made the trade a clear winner and went only as far as Crochet's prime years: win-win. The Bregman deal also blew anything Bloom even thought of out of the water. The opt-out was necessary to get the job done, and I hope Bregman likes the team enough to stick around, but I'm not sure how he's viewing the Devers trade. He may stick around, because Fenway suits him fine. We have a solid core of players, with several of them far enough away from prime that we can expect some to get better and maybe even 1-2 to get great. The farm looks like it has finally focused on pitching, but it will take years to reap what benefits it might produce. Until then, maybe Brez needs to look at finding another Crochet, but I'm not sure he's willing to part with more top prospects. He may look at Arias, plus maybe Romero & Cespedes as enough strength to trade Campbell or Mayer. He may look at Campbell, Jh Garcia and maybe Bleis as enough strength to trade Anthony. He may just decide to go all in on the kids and try to trade Duran or Abreu and Story or Bregman for a solid arm. I don't see Brez standing pat.
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This is one area of knee jerk reactions they have avoided for a long time, until the Crochet trade. There was a long gap between the Sale trade and the Crochet deal. The highest prospects traded was Beeks for Nate (2018 under DD) and Aldo Ramirez (2021 under Bloom.) I think JH views the farm as his ticket to low cost players. We probably feel like we can get what we need by trading players like Duran or Abreu and replacing them with Anthony, Campbell or Jh Garcia and maybe even trading Story with Mayer, Arias and Campbell in mind for a future key stone combination at a very low cost. Hell, we may decide to trade Bregman, so Mayer can play 3B until Story's deal expires. I could see us trading Chapman, too, if we go full reboot mode.

