moonslav59

Daniel Murphy hardly faded anywhere. The guy led the NL in OPS (.985) and SLG (.595) this year. He also led the league in 2Bs with 47 and has 25 HRs and 100+ RBIs.

Here are some possible free agents the Sox may be interested in: 3B: Justin Turner, Martin Prado, Luis Valbuena 1B/3B: Pedro Alvarez DH/1B: Encarnacion, Napoli, Morales ($11M option w KC) 1B/LF: A Lind, M Moreland, B Moss DH/OF: C Beltran, Trumbo, J Bautista, M Holliday C: Wilson Ramos (then trade 1-2 of ours?) SP: Brett Anderson, Jason Hammel RP: (Listed all) John Axford, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Broxton, Buddy Carlyle, Brett Cecil, Santiago Casilla, Aroldis Chapman, Jesse Chavez, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Wade Davis *, Michael Dunn, Dana Eveland, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli *, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland, J.P. Howell, Kenley Jansen, Casey Janssen, Kevin Jepsen, Brandon League, Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, Brian Matusz, Mark Melancon, Joe Nathan, Josh Outman, Yusmeiro Petit, Cesar Ramos, Francisco Rodriguez *, Sergio Romo, Marc Rzepczynski, Fernando Salas, Sergio Santos, Joe Smith, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen. Josh Tomlin, Jordan Walden *, Brad Ziegler

I was surprised Leon kept being trotted out there. No PH'er. He looked totally lost. I have serious doubts about him having the starting job next spring.

If they decide to leave the rotation alone and just add maybe one or two new pen arms to join Carson Smith and one of the starters joing the pen, they'll be enough money for EE. EE would effectively block one of the kids at some point. I think we go with what we have and maybe add a short term 3B fix or LF/DH bridge to when Moncada, Devers and Travis are good and ready.

Yeah, I think I cut and pasted from an old list. I went back and corrected, and took Coyle off the list as well.

The season ended sooner than any of us hoped. The baseball Gods have started to whisper, "Wait till next year!" Here's a look at what we have to work with this winter... The 40 (39) man roster- listed by roster seniority: (Possibly on bubble underlined- some due to having no options remaining) Pedroia, Buchholz (option), Wright, Vazquez, Holt, Bradley, Workman, Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Kelly, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, Rodriguez, Sandoval (a possible placed on the Castillo/Craig plan), H Ramirez, Porcello Ross, Marrero, N Ramirez, Johnson, Owens, Kimbrel, Jerez, Hernandez, Young, Price, Smith, Elias Rutledge, Leon, Pomeranz, Abad, Benintendi, Holaday, Scott, Moncada (Players with no options remaining: Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Hembree, Sandy, HanRam, Porcello, Elias, Leon, Pomeranz, Abad, Holaday) Rule 5: assuming no acquisitions (unlikely), we have room to add one rule 5 player to our 40 man roster, unless we DFA one of the underlined players above. The following players will be eligible for the December 2016 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2016: Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Allen Craig, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Anyelo Leclerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Kyle Martin, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte, Luis Ysla Assuming Buch’s option is taken, Hanigan’s is not, and all our free agents are not included in our 2017 starting point, here's how I see our 2017 depth chart at each position. I am placing some players at multiple positions, if they are better than whatever else we have there. SP: Porcello, Price, ERod, Wright, Pomeranz, Buchholz (assuming option given) Kelly, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Haley, Cuevas, Kopech (not 2017: Groome) RP: Kimbrel, (Buchholz, Pomeranz or Wright), Smith, Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Hembree Abad, Scott, Workman, Ramirez, Martin, Jerez C: Leon, Vazquez, Swihart, Holaday, Romanski, Butler 1B: Ramirez, Shaw, Swihart, Pablo, Holt, Travis, Longhi (not 2017: Ockimey) 2B: Pedroia, Betts, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Marrero (not 2017: Dubon) SS: Bogaerts, Hernandez, Holt, Marrero (not 2017: Dubon) 3B: Bogaerts, Shaw, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Pablo, Rutledge, (Swihart?), (not 2017: Devers) LF: Betts, Benintendi, Young, Bradley, Swihart, Holt (not 2017: Basabe) CF: Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young, Holt RF: Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young, Holt, Swihart DH: Ramirez, Young, Moncada, Pablo, Castillo, Witte In my mind, nobody is untouchable, but clearly there are guys you try very hard to hold onto. Here's my top 15 list of who to keep (in order with last controlled year): 1) Betts (2020-I might try to lock him up soon.) 2) Benintendi (2022- He's got several more years of team control than Bogey & Bradley) 3) Bradley (2020- Hope for more consistency) 4) Bogey (2019- just 3 yrs left- Dubon in the wings) 5) ERod (2021 or 2022- still has enormous upside) 6) Moncada (??- still has top value) 7) Porcello (2019- high priced but indispensable) 8) Pedey (2021- still a force but will likely decline) 9) Groome (??- far away but with a lot of promise) 10) Kopech (??- may be ready by mid 2017) 11) Swihart (??- I feel many GM want this kid.) 12) Devers (?? May be blocked.) 13) Wright (2020- 4 years is nice) 14) Vazquez (2020- hope his offense pick up) 15) Leon (2019- likely to see his offense reduced) With three catchers in my top 15 and the catcher situation in MLB at a near all time low, I'm pretty sure that if a blockbuster is made, Swihart or Vazquez will be included. With Swihart's value higher at catcher, I think he's the one to go. With 3B in question, one could argue for keeping both Moncada and Devers until we know which one we want. I'm thinking we don't have that luxury. We are going to have to choose one and trade the other. Depending on whom our trading partner is and if they want a more immediate payoff or not, I'm thinking we may get a 1 year bridge at 3B and go with Devers. Moncada has tremendously high trade value. I'm not devaluing these kids, but I think it might make more sense to trade Moncada and Swihart as part of a package to get an ace type pitcher. I think those two offer a great start to a phone call. Now, let’s look at the contracts and luxury tax implications. (Contract cost is the average yearly salary, including bonuses, which is what the luxury tax uses.) Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.) Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both) Let’s assume we say yes to Buch and no to Hanigan’s ($800K buyout): Updated TOTAL: $137.65M Arbs (9 players): Bogaerts:$650K > ~$6.0M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$4.0M (1 of 4) Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3) J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.6 (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1.3M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $1.2K (1 of 3) Rutledge: $minor> $850K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3) TOTAL ARBS: ~$21.85M TOTAL of 16 players: ~$159.5M (with Buch) The 24 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Holaday, Scott, Moncada TOTAL: ~$13.5M Grand Total: ~ $173M Now, add the $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is... TOTAL $185M That leaves us with about $4M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M. If we assume it will be about $210M next year, which leaves us with about $25 to 30M to spend and stay close to or under the luxury tax. It is my understanding that the Sox luxury tax will be 50% next year, so I think there is interest to reset that number. $25 to 30M may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need 2-3 quality RP'ers and maybe a SP'er upgrade. If we don't try to spend big to replace Papi, we will probably acquire an aging vet to 1-2 year deal who plays corner IF (Turner/Todd Frazier?) and/or DH/ LF (Beltran?). There are countless ideas out there to improve this team and try to make up for the loss of Big Papi. I welcome your ideas, suggestions and critiques.

That's one reason I think the idea is a nonstarter. We're keeping Buch. Castillo does not count on the luxury tax, and that's where he'll stay.

Tough way to go out. We had so many chances. It's hard to not let three games dominate how we feel right now, but this team fought hard to the end. At least I feel better about our future now than I did last winter.

Well, it's Henry's money. Chances are we'll be right about at the luxury tax limit next year, which is 50% for the Sox. For Henry to "break even" on Castillo, he'd have to pay about $30M of the $46M remaining, The tax would be $15M- making it about a wash. Castillo still has some value to us as a far-fetched chance at redemption and OF insurance, so I think we'd want something back... not much. I doubt we'd deal Buch for a low-level prospect. If Seattle agreed to take Castillo and $20M plus Buch, I think we'd still want more than a low-level prospect.

Maybe I should have said "a few people" not "people", but there are people down on JBJ on other threads as well, as they have been with various players as they slump in tiny sample size periods. This should not be something I need to explain.

Mine is.

Exactly, and the very low luxury tax cost of the two guys from the CWS would allow us to extend and sign future players and still stay under or near the tax limit. C Sale $6.5M for 3 more years Quintana $4.2M for 4 more years (luxury tax cost not contractual cost) JBJ will likely cost more than Quintana in arbs...maybe more than Sale too!

And, he's got nerves of steel.

There's another aspect to the equation on trading JBJ for Sale or Quintana. Once we get an ace, we either have enormously upgraded our pen by moving Pomeranz, Wright or Buch to the pen or we get a fine player by trading one of our "excess" starting pitchers. We could also sign Beltran to play LF vs RHP/DH vs LHP as a bridge to Basabe or a possible move of Moncada to LF. (Young could play LF vs LHPs.) The downgrade from JBJ to Beltran/Young is significant, don't get me wrong, but the upgrade at SP'er and bullpen would be gigantic. I love JBJ and want to keep the 3 B's as much as anyone, but guys like Sale & Quintana don't come along very often (assuming they are available).

I totally agree. The ups and downs of some of this forum over tiny sample sizes never ceases to amaze me. Just weeks ago, people were saying we should "never trade JBJ" even for someone like Sale of Quintana, and now it's like totally the opposite.

There's an article on MLBTR about the idea of moving Bogey to 3B after a down year defensively at SS... at least maybe once Dubon is ready. It was what I thought should happen when we had Iggy, but it wasn't just about Iggy's projected stellar defense at SS, which I am a big fan of, but more about what scouts were saying about Bogey's lack of ability to become a plus defender at SS, and that he seemed to project to be better suited at 3B. I'm not saying I want him moved now. I thought I saw improvement defensively last year, so I'm not sure what happened this year, but it wasn't very pretty.

You are clinging to your position as much as I. I guess we both want the last word. I wasn't for doing nothing with the closer role for Papi's last year. We do know "the price" some closers got in free agency and what it took to trade for others. Some of those options failed- some did well. Ours did not do all that well, not even considering we gave up the most in prospects AND paid the most contractually. We could have waited a year to get a great closer, yes, but used the resources spent on Kimbrel to upgrade the pen and rotation by expanding the players given for an even better haul. No, we don't know what starters might have been pried from their teams, but I think we could gave done better than Kimbrel and Pomeranz had we added Swihart, Owens and Johnson to Espi, Margot, Guerra and Allen. Tell me why you think we'd have gotten less, and I'm not even talking in hindsight after both Kimbrel & Pom struggled.

I was hoping the 3 days rest would be all they needed, but that hasn't seemed to help.

If you give Theo the "lion's share" for 2013, maybe Dan D gets the lion's share for 2004.

Another reason we were rated so highly was because we had the top second half SP'er WAR and ERA- in MLB. The last few games of the season usually do not over-ride 3 months of great starting pitching. Our offense did not have as great a second half, but was still ranked highly.

Final Team WAR by Position: Overall: 38.7 Cubs 34.0 Red Sox 27.2 Guardians 27.1 Giants 25.3 Dodgers 23.2 Nats 23.0 Jays 21.5 Cards 21.3 Angels 21.1 Mariners Catcher: 15th @ 2.2 1B: 10th @ 4.1 2B: 10th @ 4.7 3B: 30th @0.8 SS: 6th @ 4.5 LF: 13th @ 2.0 CF: 5th @ 4.9 RF: 1st @ 7.4 DH: 2nd @ 4.5 According to WAR, our worst positions are 3B (by far), Catcher and LF. All the rest are above 15th (avg). 2nd Half: Overall: 3rd @ 12.4 C 16th 1B: 8th 2B: 10th SS: 18th 3B: 30th LF: 18th CF: 16th RF: 2nd DH: 9th SP: 7th @ 13.9 RP: 9th @ 4.8 Overall: 8th @ 18.7 (just behind the Guardians & Jays) 2nd Half: Overall: 1st @ 11.3 SP: 1st @ 9.0 RP: 13th @ 2.3

I haven't (for next year), and that's why I said "Kimbrel has been one of baseball's best closers over the past 5 years and longer. I'm still not convinced he has lost it." (meaning his closer role)

Regardless of how the playoffs end, the Sox did very well over the regular season. Many thought we had very little chance of winning the division. Many had given up on JBJ and were shocked to hear so many GMs were asking for him in trade. There's other examples of players beating expectations as is usually the case in a winning year. Here's a look at some numbers that are quite impressive: Out of 330 MLB players with over 220 PAs (about 11 per team), here's how our players placed in OPS: 2) Ortiz 1.021 21) Betts .897 38) Ramirez .866 47) Young .850 52) Leon .845 57) Bradley .835 69) Pedroia .825 93) Bogaerts .802 That's 8 guys in the top 93. Figuring 30 teams, the norm should be about 3. Losing Papi is going to hurt, but we'll still have 7 top 30% batters. (120 pitchers with 50+ IP- about 4 per team) 2nd Half Starter ERA- Rankings: 6) Porcello 59 25) Buchholz 73 27) Rodrigues 73 41) Price 81 85) Pomeranz 106 First Half ERA- Rankings: 6) Wright 61 8) Pomeranz 62 (w/SD) 41) Porcello 83 67) Price 98 133) Buchholz 143 I know this might be cherry-picking and wishful thinking, but if we could see more of the first half Wright and Pomernaz and the second half Porcello, Price, ERod and Buch, our rotation would be about as solid as can be. I'm not projecting that will be, but certainly there is more promise than we had before the season started.

I first heard about the postponement by seeing your thread title. I live in Texas, so it's not all over the TV and radio. I usually avoid the game thread, because I watch most games on tape delay. I, for one, am thankful, since I was able to take my dog out for a long walk knowing the game wasn't about to start.

Show me a closer with a weak ego, and I'll show you a lousy closer. You need to have an enormous ego to be a great closer. You don't have to be cocky or a braggart, but you have to have a complete confidence and belief in yourself to be a top closer. Kimbrel has been one of baseball's best closers over the past 5 years and longer. I'm still not convinced he has lost it. All pitchers have rough patches, and he did have an injury and recovery period during the year. I'm not expert on psychology or what is going on in Kimbrel's mind, but I'm pretty certain he believes he should be the closer on opening day next year. His overall career could overshadow his weak stretch this year. Whether it should is up for debate. I have no evidence to support my view here, except for maybe past histories of closers losing their roles, but I happen to think Kimbrel would not go quietly to a set-up role. I could be wrong. I've been wrong before. I'd hope that if we pick up a great closer, he'd be okay with the set-up role and excel at it. His brief history as a set-up man has not been pretty. It worrisome to me. BTW, I'm with S5 on the idea that Uehara should be our closer right now.