moonslav59

HanRam is a minus fielder. HanRam has a better OPS as a DH than any other position, although the sample size is just 36 scattered games. HanRam has a long injury history, and DH may minimize that risk. I'd ask HR what he thinks about the idea, at least as maybe a DH vs RHPs and 1Bman vs LHPs. Maybe we can pick up a great platoon player who kills righties and flip the 1B-DH role for HR- giving him more time at 1B than DH, but HR has already played 4 positions for more than 350 PAS, so I think he can adjust. Is there some risk? Sure, but so is there a risk putting a sub average fielding, injury-prone player at 1B instead of at DH. EE will cost a lot and get too many years.

At the time of the deal, it wasn't so obvious. Kelly had a 3.25 ERA with STL over 266 IP. Granted, it was just a 102 ERA+, and his 1.38 WHIP was not pretty, but he was pretty highly regarded. He was just 26 and could/should have been expected to get better. Lackey's value to us was zero for the two months of the year we dealt him, but his next year with us might have had value and his 1.3 years of control to STL was very valuable. Allen Craig had an .839 playoff OPS over 118 PAs. He was coming off a major injury from the 2013 WS vs the Sox and had a terrible half season with the Cards before the trade, but at age 29, I don't think anyone expected a cliff dive on his behalf. Only 22 MLB batters had more PAs AND a higher OPS (.863) from 2011 to 2013. Look, I realize GMs are judged in hindsight. I get the reasoning for that, and I don't necessarily disagree with that realization, but at the time of the trade, it wasn't widely viewed as a gross overpay. 4 years of Kelly and 4 years of Craig at a $6.2M luxury tax cost for 1.3 years of Lackey, of which the 0.3 was useless to us was somewhat reasonable. At the time of the great purge, I argued that we should have gone for more prospect types and not ML ready players/prospects, but the Sox brass was not about to look like they were packing it in for the next year. They wanted to go young but not too young. I thought we could have done better on all three of our SP'er trades at the time, but to me, the Lackey trade looked better than the Lester and Peavy deals. I had high hopes for Kelly and thought Craig would at least be a good platoon player at 1B, LF or DH.

I'm thinking the luxury tax limit might end up over $210M. That will help the players, but owners will still make megmillions.

I never said I was for getting Votto, but if they'd take Pablo, I'd listen.

I could see us using HanRam at 1B vs LH's starters (maybe 35-45 games) and at DH for the rest. We could use Young at DH vs LHPs and let Beni play LF full time. I also think Carlos Beltran is a more likely signing than EE. He's a switch hitter who actually hits both sides close to equally. He won't be getting a 4-5 year deal either. If we do get Beltran, we may DH him FT and use HR at 1B FT. When we play in an NL park, Beltran could play LF. This would probably also cause a Beni-Young LF platoon.

Agreed, but the jury is still out. He still has two years left, which is still more control time than Lackey had. I'm not defending the trade, but I do think 4 years of Kelly was a good gamble. We basically got Porcello for Lester, Kelly (at a high cost when adding Craig's contract) for Lackey and Hembree for Peavy. It seems like other teams get more for these types of guys, but Ben tried to get ML ready players, so that tied his hands to some extent.

He's the greatest Sox player I have ever seen. He's the most clutch baseball player I've ever seen. Happy retirement Big Papi. You deserve a great life!

You're probably right on demanding the option be taken, but with a $7M buyout and a $20M final year cost, it's only a $13M difference, and if Votto ages well, it might be a good deal at age 40. 4 years for EE is a lot, but he'll get it for sure. He may get 5 years. It's his last chance for a big payday.

Kelly was the main man in the trade. Craig was a flyer on filling our 1B need at the time. At least Craig's contract doesn't get taxed at 50%!

Thanks. That makes sense.

I didn't set the 10 year range. I was just responding to a comment. I do think the Rays had success not just because of high draft picks. They had a very good GM. They traded away very good players right before they declined. They had the guts to trade good pitchers for some nice prospects that mostly worked out. They picked up many journeymen type players that had career years for them. They had one year where they maxed out the supplemental pick strategy with something like 11 picks in the first 3 rounds. I realize a team like the Sox could not use many of their strategies, but they did do moves like the Wagner one that brought us a comp pick. Certainly, I do not want us to emulate the Ray's, and as I remember, the Rays bombed out on those 11 picks, so they were far from perfect. The Guardians might be a better model to look at. One thing the Rays and Guardians seem to have that we don't have is the ability to draft and acquire top young pitchers.

Why is it so clear he'd refuse a trade to a winning team?

My point is obvious to understand. The Guardians have spent less than half as much as the Sox and have been just about the same in winning season records and making the playoffs. The Rays have spent about a quarter of what we have spent and done nearly as well with 80 and 90+ seasons and making the playoffs. Both teams are way behind on recent rings for sure, I'll grant you that, but after next year (assuming no ring), we'll have just one ring in the last10 years.

1) I don't disagree with anything you have said here. 2) Hanley wanted to come to Boston so badly, he agreed to play LF. That shows a willingness to "do what it takes". 3) I'd ask hanRam about moving to DH beffore insisting on him going. Maybe he'd love the idea, although that doesn't mean he'll excel as a DH. 4) He's already DH'd 36 times over his career, so he should have some gut feeling on his liking it or not. 5) Small sample size alert: OPS as DH 1.014 (155 PAs) as SS .882 (4759 PAs) as 1B .845 (569 PAs) as 3B .762 (422 PAs) as LF .690 (379 PAs) as PH .674 (37 PAs)

I didn't realize he was already 33 (turns 34 next Sept), so you are probably right about the "dump" nature of his contract. He's owed $179M/7 counting his $7M buyout for 2024 when Votto will start the season at age 40. Or, he could be paid $192M/8 if the $20M option is taken. Giving the Reds Castillo plus prospects makes some sense, but Castillo costs nothing on the luxury tax. I think DD would rather give them Sandoval, who does and will count against the tax. He is owed $58M/3 or $70M/4. I think his deal would more than even up the financial nature of Votto's deal, so we'd probably have to pay some of Pablo's deal. It would essentially make Votto's deal worth $121M/7 or $134M/8. The Reds would still want a major haul of prospects, even with Pablo. I'm not sure an offer of Pablo, Swihart, Basabe, Owens and Johnson would come close.

MLBTR has this on Qualifying Offers this winter: For locks, I’d list Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond and Mark Trumbo. That’s nine right there. As for players that I think have a chance of receiving them — we’ll say 20 percent or more, to put a rough number on it… basically as a means of illustrating that it wouldn’t shock me — I’ll list Neil Walker, Michael Saunders, Wilson Ramos, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli and Matt Wieters.

Have any of these teams had sustained success over, say, the last ten years? Compared to who? The Sox with 3 last place "evaporations" in the last 5 years? The Guardians have made the playoffs in 9 times since 1995 (22 years). They've won 80 or more games 7 times in the last 10 years and 90 or more 3 times. The Sox have won 80 or more games in 7 of the last 10 and 90 or more in 6 of 10. They've made the playoffs in 5 of the last 11 years. The Rays have made the playoffs in 4 of the last 9 years. They have won 80 or more games in 7 of the last 10 years (same as the Sox) and 90 or more in 5 of the last 10 years- one less than the Sox. They've made the playoffs in 4 of the last 9 years- pretty close to the same as the Sox 5 of 11.

The problem with Florida baseball teams is the fact that many people living their are transplants from elsewhere. They are Yankee and Red Sox fans and never will be Rays fans. They only go to games when their team plays there. I see that some here in Houston. I think North Carolina would do well with a MLB team, but the population is spread out, and finding a central location may be too far away from everyone.

sale or Sale? I want Quintana.

Well, we need a DH. As much as HanRam may have surprised us with decent 1B defense, he was still a negative this year on defense. I'm not sure how his psyche fits with the DH role, but surely an argument can be made to move HanRam to DH next year, even if just vs RHPs as Young could DH vs lefties-assuming we view Beni as a FT LF'er. That leaves 1B and 3B as two of our highest need areas. We could try to find a player that can play both and let the chips fall where they may. One of those chips could be Swihart. Since Moncada and Devers both look to be vying for the future 3B job, I think Swihart's best chance might be at 1B. I still have not given up on Swihart as a catcher, but I think Sox brass likes Vaz better. Leon's hot streak has thrown him into the mix. One of these three may be traded this winter, and if it's not Swihart, then catcher will be his major position.

The A-B free agent thing ended years ago. It's all about FAs who have a Qualifying Offer made by their team or not. If we signa player with a QO offered, we'll lose a first round pick. If we sign a second player with a QO, we'd lose our 2nd round pick and so on.

The fact that we went hard after Beltran at the trade deadline may be a hint at who we get for our DH next year. Beni's good start to his ML career may lessen that desire, but Beltran really isn't a great fielder anyway, so the DH role looks better for him anyways. I'm totally sold on the validity of a Beni-Young LF platoon. I could also see DD thinking of a Pablo-Young DH platoon as a real possibility. A HanRam-Young platoon at DH, with HanRam playing 1B when not at DH could work as well. Maybe Swihart, Shaw or Pablo could play 1B when HanRam is at DH. Maybe we could pick up a one year corner IF bridge to Moncada/Devers. We have a glut of ML players that can play 3B, but none of them are players that we can really trust to be a plus at 3B. Our 3B WAR ranked 30th this year. Shaw, Pablo, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Rutledge, Marrero and some even put Bogey as a 3B option at some point down the road. (Devers is probably more than a year away. Dalbec and Chavis are 2 or more years away, if ever.) Picking up a 3Bman or corner IF'er almost certainly means soneone will be traded (Pablo/Marrero?) I don't see many RP'ers on the FA market, but the closers will be in super high demand.

Nobody would force the Reds to pay a penny of Votto's deal. Look at what players of lesser value are getting these days! I think the CWS have a big decision to make. They may decide to keep trying to win it within the window of Sale (3 years) and Quintna (4 yrs), then their player availability is gone. I get that. However, there has been talk that they may blow it all up. Usually, when teams do that, they look to dump the highest salary players and players who may not be around by the time the team looks to be ready to compete again. These days, teams can rebuild in 2-3 years. The Sox showed they can go from last to first to last within one year of each other. If I was a CWS fan, I wouldn't want to trade Quintana due to the 4 years of control, but as a Sox fan, he's the top prize due to the 4 years and the $4.2M luxury tax cost. We could try to expand the trade to involve Robertson and/or Frazier, but the return would have to be enormous. One way to lessen the return would be to take Jamie Shields. I don't want the guy, but his contract would really make a difference on what the CWS would want in return. I think we could take Shields, Frazier, Robertson and Quintana and be very close to the luxury tax limit. We might need to trade Buch or someone else to get under the limit, but we could get something (cheap RP'er?) for him. So, what might it take to get these three players plus the Shields' dump? Would the CWS want immediate ML ready prospects or would they look at a 2-3 year window for readiness? I think Moncada would have to be a must. We'd have to give a catcher, and Swihart probably has the highest value, but if they wanted Vazquez, we could give him instead. I'm thinking Devers would give them team control years starting in 2-3 years. They'll want pitching and may demand ERod, but I'd try to get them to take Kopech and Owens/Johnson instead. Maybe others like Basabe, Travis and Dubon would need to be added. Maybe they'd want Shaw or Holt. Maybe Barnes or Hembree. Maybe just about all of these guys. Maybe they'd demand JBJ, but he's got the same 4 years of control as Quintana, so I don't see the reasoning there. Getting JBJ for Sale makes a little more sense, so maybe we'd need to take Sale over Quintana, and Sale seems to be the one they'd rather deal. So, is this too little or too much to offer for Sale, Robertson, Frazier and Shields ($44M/2 owed)? Moncada Devers Kopech Swihart or Vazquez Shaw or Holt Owens or Johnson 2 from Basabe, Chavis, Travis or Dubon Other trade options might be out there, and I know I must sound like a broken record on the White Sox, but I do think we match up well with them.

...JBJ does have it and wasn't able to stay focused and that cost the Sox. Not all struggles and slumps can be blamed on lack of focus. Sometimes, it's mechanics gone awry. Sometimes, it's about trying to hard to "focus" and losing the being "in the zone". Sometimes slumps might just be explainable. I sure it will come up along with player changes needed to improve the team, but should we also look at the coaches and manager to see if improvements need to be made there as well. I don't disagree, but I doubt we change any coaches or managers this winter.

And a 4 or 5 year deal would likely block Moncada or Devers (or Travis) in 2 years.