moonslav59

The only high impact FAs I can see the Sox pursuing are EE, Turner, Jansen, Chapman or Melancon. I can't see us getting more than one of these guys, if that, but I suppose we could go "all out" and get 2. I see Beltran as an option as well, but the guy is 39. At least his deal won't be a long one. If we move Moncada to LF, even if as a platoon with Young to start, then maybe that would mean we might trade JBJ or Beni. I'm not so sure HanRam is locked into 1B, but I can see the reasoning behind keeping him there. We could use Young at DH vs LHPs and some righties, and give HanRam a breather by playing him at DH vs the tough RH'd starter.

Our starters had the best second half ERA in MLB. We ended up with Buch starting due to injury issues with Pom and Wright, neither of which is terribly threatening to their 2017 projections. Look, I'm always for upgrading the rotation from the top, but we don't need 2 SP'ers. We could probably get by with none added, if we fix other high need areas- like the pen and 3B. Buch will be back for $13M. At worst, we could trade him. If you define a number one as a top 30 SP'er, then Porcello and Price are both number 1's. I'd love to get another one and make them a 2 and 3, but here are the numbers: Top 137 SP'ers in MLB (100+ IP) WAR 6) Porcello 5.5 13) Price 4.5 43) Pomeranz 2.9 48) Wright 2.8 (in just 24 starts!) ERA- 13) Porcello 71 22) Wright 75 33) Pomeranz 79 51) Price 90 These numbers show we have at least one number 1 and 3 number 2's, and it's not even counting ERod (or Buch). Out of 135 starters with 40+ IP in the second half of 2016, we have this.... WAR 1) Porcello 3.4 15) Price 1.9 23) ERod 1.7 71) Buch 1.0 (Wright ranked 26th in 1st half WAR and 6th in first half ERA-, so I'm not sure I'd write him off so easily--pun intended.)

If standing pat means we do absolutely nothing, then there's absolutely no way that will happen. We had a weak pen all year until September. We will be losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. To me, standing pat would mean at least replacing these three in kind. That has to be the minimum. We should be able to pick up 2 very good RP'ers and still be under the luxury tax. That means "the minimum" would also mean making some sort of move to get a DH or corner IF'er, even if just as a bridge to 2018 (Moncada/Devers/Travis). I can't imagine anything less than maybe signing Chapman, Jansen or Melancon plus a decent RP'er like Logan Boone, and then maybe trading for Tood Frazier. We could also trade for Robertson & Frazier and then sign Melancon. Is that going to make us close to even with this year's team? Of course, on paper, it doesn't make up for Papi, Uehara, Zeigler & Tazawa, but if you also count full seasons from Beni, Pomeranz, Carson Smith, Swihart, and maybe Moncada having an impact, then I think we'll maybe approach a similar record. Yes, we may easily have more injuries and/or down seasons, but there still is a lot to be hopeful about.

1) There are no top FA SP'er FAs. Price should do better. Porcello may decline, but he could still be very good. ERod, Pom, Wright and Buch could all have good years, but we might just need two of them to have good years.

I agree, and I agreed at the time, but obviously the Sox expected better from Kelly, and it wasn't far-fetched to think that way. I liked Kelly, but thought 1.3 years of Lackey was worth more.

I remember saying, "We played it halfway." We were afraid to go total rebuild like the Yanks did this year. We wanted to hit the refresh button but still be competitive the very next year. Lester for Cespy was the real head-scratcher to me. I'm glad we got Porcello for him, but it was weird.

I know I didn't, and I thought we could have done better too, but it wasn't all about a higher WAR for one year. Kelly had 4 years to Lackey's 1.3 years (really just one with us).

The optimist: We'll have Beni, Pomeranz and Wright for a full season- not half or less than half.. We'll have Carson Smith all year. Kelly, Barnes, Hembree and others may take a big step up. Pre-prime guys like Betts, Bogey, JBJ could get even better. Price should get better. There's a chance Moncada or someone else has a significant year. The Pessimist: Papi is irreplacable, and we just got ousted in the first round. Late season slumpings could be a sign of what to expect next year. Players coming off "career years" could drop off. We have other holes to fill besides Papi: Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. JF is not the best manager around.

I think we're looking at rosters as they currently are, but good point. If TOR loses EE and "Batts", then maybe we'd be faves over them. If BAL loses Weiters and others, so to with them.

I think he is just listing the 6 starters, and we can assume one will be the long relief/spot starter on the 25 man roster.

Put Scott in AAA and change Rodriguez to Hernandez and I think the roster, as is, would compete for the division lead, but they would not be favorites. If we add a top RP'er, a decent RP'er and a big bat or top starting pitcher, I think we could be faves again.

Plus, it's Hernandez not Rodriguez.

I'd get a short term bat that is very good. I'd get 2 very good RP'ers. I'd try to upgrade our rotation at the top, not the middle or bottom. That would be the one big move I'd try. All these ideas combined will cost us money and prospects through trade. Tough decisions will have to be made: Decide who goes- Moncada or Devers (I doubt we have the luxury to keep both.) Swihart, Vazquez or Leon (The demand for decent catchers is too high for us to keep 3.) We may have to part with a SP'er or Kopech plus Owens and Johnson as part of a big package to get an ace or strong #2 type SP'er. I know I've beaten the dead horse on EE, so I won't comment on that right now.

I think the Sox are committed to HanRam playing 1B next year. Depending on where they go at the DH position I could see someone like Shaw splitting time with him there. I don't see a 3B move, I think they forsee Moncada ready early to mid season and will go with some combination of Sandoval/Shaw/Holt/Hill. In a perfect world Pablo plays well enough to unload at least some of his contract and Moncada takes over. I agree that's what management will likely do. Too much talent and money invested in 3B to spend valuable resources at 3B. My opinion is that I'd rather acquire a short term 3Bman that is good enough offensively to also DH rather than sign a DH only for 2-5 years. Rotation depth is a concern, and you can never have enough bullpen arms. I would seriously be ok with going after Chapman, even if he gets overpaid we've learned that around the trade deadline teams are more than over willing to pay for bullpen upgrades. Kimbrel was too shaky for me and with Uehara gone and a question mark over Smiths return we could really use a lights out reliever. Agreed. If Kimbrel/Chapman/Smith are all lights out then awesome......if it looks like someone like Barnes or Kelly really emerge in the bullpen you know you could easily get rid of those guys can probably get back good prospects too. You always end up needing bullpen depth over a long season.

I did not like the trade when we made it, and it looks bad in hindsight. However, if Kelly gives us two good years, the deal may not look as horrible as it does now. My point was that at the time of the deal we were looking at giving up 1 year of Lackey for 4 of Kelly and the hope that Craig might return to being close to the top 22 hitter he was from 2011 to 2013 plus the 2013 playoffs.

We have Beni and Betts who can play CF. We have nobody to play SS. We have Young and Holt who can play LF, and finding a cheap LF addition is much easier than finding a decent SS. It usually is not a good plan to trade a 3.7 to 4.7 WAR position player and then have to go out and replace him.

I seriously doubt we acquire a catcher. We have 3 guys that would probably start for 1/3 of MLB teams. Swihart's offense is fine, so we're not totally down on offense with our catchers. Leon showed a flash, so maybe he can even things out and be a .700 OPS catcher. It only took a .703 team catcher OPS to be 15th in MLB. 12 teams were below .667. 10 teams below .650. 4 teams below .615. We were 18th at .681 and had Swihart on the DL and in LF for most of the season. I get the idea that we'll need all positions to step it up a little to help make-up for Papi's departure, but I don't think Ramos is the answer. We have too many other high need areas without decent in-system options like we have at catcher.

Chances are that Bogey had a long slump. Too much is being read into the end of his season. The kid is young and super talented. He may need to work on stamina, or maybe all he needs to do is improve on his in season adjustments as pitchers adjust to him. A 4.7 WAR following a 4.3 season last year is no fluke.

He'd do better than the 2016 clown carousel, but I'm not sure Sox brass views Hernandez like I do. If we picked up EE or Beltran to DH, then I could see us standing pat at 3B and letting Pablo, Hernandez, Holt, Shaw, Moncada and Rutledge fight it out to play FT or platoon at 3B.

At worst, we take the option and trade him.

I doubt they'd consider trading Bogey until Dubon is ready. We also are weak in OF depth, unless they are thinking of planting Moncada or Swihart in LF. I think we may deal Moncada or Devers plus Swihart and some mid levels for something substantial.

He'd leave it. If Mike Leak can get $80M/5 last winter and Brandon McCarthy can get $48M/4 and E Santana $55M/4 the year before, Buch will want and get more. Of course, there is the risk he will suck in 2017 and lose that value, but my guess is, he will want to score big after next season. Plus, he's not even sure of a slot in our rotation next year.

Look at what Oprah and other entertainers get. I do think the players would be better served if the money was more evenly distributed, but stardom rewards those who bring the fans to the park and TV sets.

He did look much better as the year went on, but I still think his brief successful history at DH and his willingness to play wherever we put him makes him a good candidate for DH next year. Again, I'd ask him to see if he's fine with the idea, and if he says no, I'd probably leave him at 1B. I don't like the idea of signing a DH only type player like EE. Even Beltran is a significant minus in LF. Whenever we play at an NL park, we lose a big bat or suffer on defense. I'd prefer to add a 1 year 3Bman, which allows Shaw, Swihart and HanRam to play 1B and platoon with Young at DH.

I'd rather go young as well, but finding an aged vet for a 1 or 2 year deal to "bridge" to the youth movement is okay with me. There's not much on the FA market I'd like to outbid others for, but I think we'll sign someone (RP'er? 3B? DH/1B?). I'm thinking our biggest splash may be in trade. It's hard to know who is out there at this early point, but I'm sure names will be flying soon enough. Not getting past the first round of the playoffs and not only losing Papi but also possibly Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa could create an atmosphere of desperation. I hope not, but I do think we can make a few measured and strategic moves to minimize these loses while not blocking the way for a further youth movement. Our oldest players on the roster this year were: 41 Uehara 40 Ortiz 36 Ziegler 35 Hanigan 34 Hill 32 Ramirez, Pedroia, Young Amazingly, in 2017, we could have a 33 year old as our oldest player!