moonslav59

Remember, we traded 2-3 for Kimbrel.

The stock on Owens & Johnson certainly have fell, but I do think we have a few high value mid-tier prospects: Travis, Kopech, Dubon, Chavis, Lakins, Hernandez, Light, T Ball, Longhi, Stanki, Marrero, Basabe, Martin Acosta & Ockimey I think one problem we have is that teams want other teams' top prospects, and even though Travis might be a top 3 prospect for other teams, he's not someone some teams might "settle on" when dealing with the Sox. I'm not saying that teams devalue Travis, because we have 4 guys ahead of him, but only that they shoot for top 3 or 4 prospects, unless their scouts see something others don't.

Exactly, and this past winter was loaded with high end and mid tier SP'ers on the FA market. Here's the list again... $207M/6 Z Greinke 10-3 3.61 2.2 WAR (14th) $130M/6 J Cueto (w/opt out) 11-1 2.06 3.4 WAR (3rd) $110M/5 J Zimmerman 9-4 3.81 2.0 WAR (20th) $90M/5 J Samardzja 8-4 3.59 1.0 WAR (72nd) $80M/5 M Leake 5-5 4.25 0.5 WAR (107th) $80M/5 W-Y Chen (w/opt out) 4-2 5.00 0.3 WAR (126th) $48M/3 S Kazmir (w/opt out) 5-3 4.52 0.6 WAR (101th) $70M/5 I Kennedy (w/opt out) 5-6 4.19 0.0 WAR (180th) $32M/2 J Lackey 7-4 3.29 2.0 WAR (23rd) $36M/3 J A Happ 9-3 3.42 1.1 WAR (68th) $16M/2 M Pelfrey 1-7 5.19 0.0 WAR (186th) $7.25M/1 B Colon 6-3 3.05 1.5 WAR (42nd) $7.0M/1 D Fister 8-3 3.21 0.7 WAR (87th) $6.0M/1 R Hill 8-3 2.25 2.0 WAR (17th) $11.5M/2 C Young 1-7 7.07 -1.2 WAR 232 out of 232!) $30M/6 Y Sierra n/a $5.0M C Lewis 6-1 3.21 1.3 WAR (55th) $25M/8 K Maeda 6-5 2.91 1.9 WAR (25th) $4.25M/1 T Cahil n/a $4.0M/1 J Blanton n/a $3.0M/1 M Latos 4-2 4.62 0.0 WAR (173rd) $2.5M/1 B Norris 2-5 5.80 0.3 WAR (130th) $2.5M/1 T Lincecum 1-1 5.00 0.0 WAR (184th) $2.0M/1 A Simon 2-6 8.77 -0.7 WAR (229th) $2.0M/1 R Vogelsong 0-0 1.29 0.2 WAR (146th) $1.7M H Noesi n/a $1.5M B Beachy n/a $1.5M J Turner n/a $1.0M/1 G Floyd n/a Note: Cole Hamels is 8-1 2.79 0.8 WAR (82nd) & Jamie Shields 2-9 6.22 0.0 WAR (183rd) and Shelby Miller 2-7 6.79 -0.5 (225th) Worst Sox: Buch 2-6 6.28 -0.3 WAR (220th out of 232) B4 today Owens 0-0 5.11 -0.3 WAR (217th) ERod 1-2 6.41 -0.3 WAR (215th) Elias 0.1 15.75 -0.2 WAR (210th) Kelly 2-0 8.46 -0.2 WAR (206th) O'Sullivan 1-0 7.84 0.0 WAR (166th) Certainly more choices then than now, but many flopped. Some good bargains too.

Yes, he's been very good for 3 years in a row while starting 26-31 games over that stretch. He was over 5.00 in 3 of the previous 4 seasons (2009-2012), but that shouldn't really be held against him. His numbers this year are scary bad. H has a 1.634 WHIP fueled in part by his 5.6 BB/9 rate.. He has the 15th worst xFIP- at 113 (out of 94 qualifiers). The 4 worst ERA- SP'ers right now are: 153 Shields 138 Peavy 131 Santiago 131 Liriano His .304 BABIp might mean he's had some bad luck, but it can't all be related to that. Yes, he probably can be "fixed", and I'd much rather take my chances on Liriano than Buch, but I pointed him out to highlight how desperate teams are to get SP'ers. To compare Liriano and Buch using the selected last 3 1/2 season sample size (which does not inlcude Lirianos' bad 2009-2012 seasons),, here are the numbers: 100 SP'ers with 400+ IP from 2013 to present. xFIP- 89 Liriano (tied for 22nd with Cueto and Hamels and just ahead of Richards, Gray, Porcello, Quintana and Lackey) 99 Buchholz (41st out of 100 just ahead of Ventura, Leake, Fister, Wacha & Colon) ERA- 96 Liriano (43rd just ahead of Gallardo, Leake, Gio G & Latos) 99 Buchholz (59th just ahead of Odorizzi & M Gonzalez) WHIP 1.27 Buchholz (55th) 1.29 Liriano (59th) WAR 8.4 Liriano (37th) 7.0 Buchholz (52nd) Perhaps most importantly: GS/IP 100/588 Liriano 74/459 Buchholz )

Teams are interested in Liriano, who has pretty bad numbers as well. Go figure.

Not sure, but I think it does. If nobody claims him, and they won't at his money, then he can go any where for whatever he agrees to be paid. The Sox will have to pay the rest of his contractual salary, so I think they'd be on the hook. I think it all comes down to being on someone's 40 man roster or not. If Pablo only gets minor league offers, I suppose he could stay with the Sox a la Craig. BTW, didn't Craig have 5 years when we DFA'd him?

I'm still not sure the move to 3B was what "messed Bogey up". He may have had a struggle had he stayed at SS. He may have been rushed to the bigs due to being in a pennant race and Middy flopping badly. Certainly, the move to 3B may have been a significant factor, despite how well he played 3B at the end of 2013. The 2014 Drew fiasco was a shame. Remember though, several prospect services mentioned Bogey eventually being better suited for 3B, and we'll never know if Sox management felt that was a significant possibility, but I don't think they ever did. Bogey's growth on defense at SS has surprised many people, myself included. The trade of Iggy told me, Bogey was going to be their man at SS all along. Perhaps, Bogey's play at 3B to end the 2013 season convinced the Sox to keep him there longer. To me, the biggest positional mistake Sox management made was keeping Ellsbury in CF and moving JBJ to LF. JBJ was and is a better defensive CF'er than Ellsbury, and Ellsbury had previous experience in LF.

That is the one reason for grooming Moncada to stay at 2B, but I'm not sure he will ever become an average fielder at 2B. I still think his best spot may be LF, but I'm no expert on positional projections on players, especially ones I've never seen play. I think Holt's best position is 2B, but I don't want him having to play FT anywhere (assuming Pedey gets hurt). We also have guys like Hernandez, Rutledge, Marrero and Dubon that could end up at 2B, if Pedey falters.

We may try it with Panda next season, when we may need to avoid a heavy luxury tax. The free agent market is not very good next year, especially for SP'ers, but maybe we can trade for a high-priced SP'er or prospects for a cheaper one and use the "cap space" on offense ad RP'ers.

MLB.com does not have Castillo listed on the 40 man roster. We have 39 listed, including the 5 players on the 15 day DL (Holt, Swhart, Young, Rutledge & Hanigan. The 3 players on the 60 day DL do not count against the 40 man roster (Pablo, Smith & Workman).

Agreed. It's very rare that players fast-tracked out of need do well; you are right. I trust Sox management to judge when these two are ready, and they may have to decide to promote them before they want to, such as they had to do with Swihart last year and Bogey at 3B in 2013. If Holt can return soon and play well, we may be able to hold off any forced promotion. If Brentz keeps doing well, they'll be no rush on Benintendi. If Moncada is needed at 3B, 1B or LF, there will have to be a period for him to learn a new position well enough to not be embarrassed at the ML level. I'm not sure how long that period might take. Barring injury to Pedey, Moncada's only use to us this year may be as a DH or PH'er in September.

Agreed. We could probably trade him now,i f we paid all but one dollar of his remaining contractfo r a bag of used balls.

Yes. I thought he was off the 40-man roster, but soxprospects.com still has him listed on the 40 man. Anybody know for sure what his roster status is right now?

I forgot to put him with the pre-arb players. I went back and added him. Thanks for the eagle eye.

Here's a look at some "what ifs"... We got: $217M/7 D Price (w/opt out) 8-4 4.68 1.7 WAR (29th) We might have gotten... $207M/6 Z Greinke 10-3 3.61 2.2 WAR (14th) $130M/6 J Cueto (w/opt out) 11-1 2.06 3.4 WAR (3rd) $110M/5 J Zimmerman 9-4 3.81 2.0 WAR (20th) $90M/5 J Samardzja 8-4 3.59 1.0 WAR (72nd) $80M/5 M Leake 5-5 4.25 0.5 WAR (107th) $80M/5 W-Y Chen (w/opt out) 4-2 5.00 0.3 WAR (126th) $48M/3 S Kazmir (w/opt out) 5-3 4.52 0.6 WAR (101th) $70M/5 I Kennedy (w/opt out) 5-6 4.19 0.0 WAR (180th) $32M/2 J Lackey 7-4 3.29 2.0 WAR (23rd) $36M/3 J A Happ 9-3 3.42 1.1 WAR (68th) $16M/2 M Pelfrey 1-7 5.19 0.0 WAR (186th) $7.25M/1 B Colon 6-3 3.05 1.5 WAR (42nd) $7.0M/1 D Fister 8-3 3.21 0.7 WAR (87th) $6.0M/1 R Hill 8-3 2.25 2.0 WAR (17th) $11.5M/2 C Young 1-7 7.07 -1.2 WAR 232 out of 232!) $30M/6 Y Sierra n/a $5.0M C Lewis 6-1 3.21 1.3 WAR (55th) $25M/8 K Maeda 6-5 2.91 1.9 WAR (25th) $4.25M/1 T Cahil n/a $4.0M/1 J Blanton n/a $3.0M/1 M Latos 4-2 4.62 0.0 WAR (173rd) $2.5M/1 B Norris 2-5 5.80 0.3 WAR (130th) $2.5M/1 T Lincecum 1-1 5.00 0.0 WAR (184th) $2.0M/1 A Simon 2-6 8.77 -0.7 WAR (229th) $2.0M/1 R Vogelsong 0-0 1.29 0.2 WAR (146th) $1.7M H Noesi n/a $1.5M B Beachy n/a $1.5M J Turner n/a $1.0M/1 G Floyd n/a Note: Cole Hamels is 8-1 2.79 0.8 WAR (82nd) & Jamie Shields 2-9 6.22 0.0 WAR (183rd) and Shelby Miller 2-7 6.79 -0.5 (225th) Worst Sox: Buch 2-6 6.28 -0.3 WAR (220th out of 232) B4 today Owens 0-0 5.11 -0.3 WAR (217th) ERod 1-2 6.41 -0.3 WAR (215th) Elias 0.1 15.75 -0.2 WAR (210th) Kelly 2-0 8.46 -0.2 WAR (206th) O'Sullivan 1-0 7.84 0.0 WAR (166th) Note: we have 5 of the worst 26 pitchers by WAR out of 232 SP'ers with 0.1 IP +. Some winners and some losers on this list for sure!

True. We could be sellers at this rate.

I thought he wasn't on the 40 man roster anymore (like Craig).

Now that Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax, let's re-look at next year's luxury budget numbers: Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.) Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $17.25M Arbs (9 players): Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4) Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3) Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4) Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3) TOTAL ARBS: ~$14M TOTAL of 18 players: ~$155M ($138M without Buch and Hanigan) The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre TOTAL: ~$12M Grand Total: $167M or $150M (No Buch/Hanigan) Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is... $178M or $161M That leaves us with about $11M to $28M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M aand perhaps closer to $210M. That would mean we'll have between $22M and $32M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $39M and $49M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

No, they are far from meaningless. I'm all for fast-tracking Benintendi and Moncada, but I trust Sox management for the most part.

We started the season thinking Price, Porcello, ERod and either Kelly or Buch would make a solid 4. We figured that between the lesser of Buch and Kelly and Wright, Owens, Johnson, Elias and others we'd find one decent 5th slot pitcher. I've never been a fan of quantity over quality, but Wright did come through. I guess we shouldn't be too surprised both Kelly and Buch stunk up the place, but combined with ERod's injury and struggles, we are now in deep trouble. Some of us have been saying we needed another quality starter from day one, so it's not hindsight complaining here, but it's going to cost us more to get a decent starter at the deadline than it would have last winter.

I've been one of Buch's greatest supporters over the years, but after today, I'm done with even trying to defend even a glimmer of hope that he might possibly even begin to regain even a fraction of last year's form.

I believe that the Sox should have signed Lester soon after the 2013 season ended. Something over Homer Bailey money, say, 5/110 -5/120. I bet he would have signed in that range. Why they made the 70 mil offer is beyond me. Once that happened I lost confidence that the Sox wanted him back. Over 30 and all that. Just stupid decision making or feltching of the process. I agree, but Lester did say he'd take a hometown discount, and maybe the Sox viewed that as a Pedey-like deal. Anyways, they botched it by at least not immediately following up on their low-ball offer with something like $130M/6. I really think the chicken & beer thing got into management's head. I agree that trading him for Cespedes was plain dumb. Unless Cespedes indicated that he would sign an extension for reasonable money. This, to me, was the beginning of a cavalcade of f*** me moves. I think it was pretty clear Cespedes wanted free agency. That's why he had the no qualifying offer clause put in in the first place. Even if we did get to extend him, it would have been at FA cost. I hate trading good talent for players making FA money. It's easier to just sign a similar FA. I believe that after purging Lester it made even more sense to keep Lackey as he was a legit #1 for The Angels and after surgery he was back to being a tough guy to face ( pun intended for my friends here on Talksox ). Sign Lackey to a three year deal at 13-16 mil/yr and wipe out the min. year and it could have been done. I think they felt without Lester, they wouldn't win it all the following year, so why not get what we can for Lackey. They must have figured 4 years of Kelly > 1 year of Lackey. Also, Lackey was part of the beer & chicken gate. We also traded Peavy for Hembree & Escobar. I had hoped for better returns for him too, but Hembree may end up helping yet. I agree that Miller to Baltimore for E-Rod was a good move. It looked like Miller, despite his contentment in playing here in Boston, was likely to get a 2-3 year deal at or about what the Yankees eventually paid him. I don't think that the Sox valued him that high. Although they extended Koji at relatively obscene money so it's hard to say. But Koji didn't get the years Miller got. The problem with blowing up the rotation is that it is very hard to build another one starting from scratch. Look at what we have now. I totally agree, and having just Lackey right now, would make a huge difference, assuming he'd have extended with us. My point was that once Lester was going to free agency, I thought the trades made sense. Plus, we could have outbid the Cubs for Lester anyways.

Let's look at a few players... Bogaerts: 1636 PAs in the minors (ages 17-20) 356 at AA (age 19-20) 256 at AAA (age 20) Betts: 1315 PAs in the minors (ages 18-21) 257 at AA (age21) 211 at AAA (age 21) Harper: 569 PAs in the minors 147 at AA (age 18) 84 at AAA (age 19) Trout: 1312 PAs in the minors (ages 17-19) 412 at AA (age 19) 93 at AAA (age 20) There are exceptions to most rules, but not many non-pitchers jump from AA to MLB and hit the ground running.

As a comparative use, I think it has value, but clearly they seem to overvalue everybody. The value they give seems to be somewhat close to "open market" free agent value, which almost always appears to be overpay as well, right?

Not much. That's my point. I don't hold a catcher responsible for not being able to catch a wicked knuckleball. Hanigan has always been viewed as a plus defender who normally hits LH'd pitching well.