True, and I have said based on recent Sox history, that there will probably be 30 starts available to our 6th and beyond starters, but I see Buch as our 5th or 6th starter right now. I doubt we use Wright out of the pen, so it's between Pomeranz and Buch.
I know starter depth is a concern. I'm scared as hell of the thought of having to use Elias, Owens, Johnson or the next O'Sullivan next year, but I have even more grave concerns about our pen.
I'm not sure if posters are being fooled by how well our pen did in September, but counting on Kelly, Barnes and Hembree to take up the slack from departing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa scares the bejesus out of me! I wouldn't count on Carson Smith coming back before July, and when he does, what can we expect?
The whole league is moving towards stronger and deeper pens. We can't afford to move from the mediocrity of our 2016 pen to something worse. We can hope nobody gets hurt, and Buch becomes a force in the pen. We can Hope Kelly builds on his late season showing last year, but we gave the guy a starting slot based on his ending to 2015. Assuming he's a lock on a quality set-up role is a dangerous gamble. Ross has been steady for several years, but I'm not sure he's 8th inning caliber. Wanna try and see, if he can do it and risk messing up a good 7th inning guy? Not me. Barnes and Hembree bot are very promising. I have faith in both, but I'm not about to pencil them in for the 8th inning just yet.
People, our pen took a gigantic hit losing Ziegler and Uehara. Tazawa wasn't bad either. Even Kimbrel showed signs of regression. What if that continues?
Our pen needs serious help. We need at least a solid 8th inning guy that may be able to close, if necessary. I'm not even sure Uehara can fill that role, but he's about the least kind of upgrade we need. If we don't get someone better than Uehara, we might try two guys like Uehara in hopes that one does well and the other okay.
With just $10M to spend, it's not going to be easy, unless we want to trade a prospect for a RP'er, something I hate to do. That's why I see gaining budget space by trading Buch as an option. I'm only saying this based on the assumption we are going to reset the luxury tax tax this winter by staying under the limit. There's no other big contract we can trade without creating a bigger hole than our 6th starter slot.
In theory, trading Buch for a good RP'er making maybe $3.5M would not only fill a pen slot, but would add $10M to the $10M we have and allow us to sign or trade for a more costly RP'er and LH'd hitting DH or 3Bman not just one or the other. Or, we could go bold and sign Chapman or Jansen or Turner.