moonslav59

Porcello is surprising many Sox fans. I'm not going to pretend I saw this season start coming, but I never backed down from my position that I thought the contract extension was reasonable and that his big pay starts this year, so let's give him a chance. I'm not tooting my own horn. Posters from BDC know I've been wrong enough over the past few years to be too full of pride. Here are some of my major positions over the past few years: I hated the Crawford signing from day one, calling Carl a "glorified platoon player" that would "cripple our budget for years to come". I liked the Beckett extension. I was okay with the Lackey signing. I called the AGon trade to the Dodgers "perhaps the best Sox deal in my lifetime" or at least close to the trade for Pedro. I hated the Pablo and HanRam signings. I hated the Vic and Dempster signings, liked the Napoli signing and thought we "played it halfway" in the off-season prior to 2013. (I essentially gave us a very small chance of winning a ring in 2013.) I thought we had a much better chance to win a ring in 2012, 2014, and 2015 than 2013. I hated the Kimbrel deal, because I felt like Kimbrel's contract was virtually a free agent deal, so in a sense, we traded 4 prospects for ualcom qthe right to pay free agent money for just a closer. (I suggested several expanded trade offer including many of the players in the Kimbrel package along with Swihart and/or Devers for a top quality SP'er.) I thought we overpaid for Young. I thought the Carson Smith deal was understandable. I disliked the Iggy deal immensely, but understood that the Sox were never going to hand Iggy the FT SS job, so getting Peavy made some sense. I loved the salary dumps of 2014, but thought we should have gone all out for guys like ERod, Hembree and Kelly than Cespedes and Craig. Last winter, I projected Betts would compete for the best Sox offensive player of the year and defended him against those who wanted him demoted after last year's slow start. I am a big believer in the value of great defensive SS and Catching. I believe in CERA-related value, but the stat is almost always misused and taken out of context. I liked the overpay for Price and have always felt like the only way to improve a rotation is by building from the top not the middle or bottom. trying to upgrade your 5 slot to a 4 slot pitcher is nearly a total waste of effort. I have very firm beliefs on how line-ups should be constructed. Some theories I hold are that the whole lefty-righty-lefty line-up structure is over-rated, but I do think L-R splits are a big part in determining who should bat where and when. I don't adhere to the idea that players need to "fell comfortable" with one slot in the line-up and not jerked around", but I'm not for radical upheavals just for the sake of a 20 point OPS gain vs a RHP or LHP. I think you start your line-up building by putting your best all around hitter up 3rd (Ortiz vs RHPs and maybe HanRam or Pedey vs LHPs). I think closers are often over-rated. I was a big defender of Wakefield, even in his last days. I have also been on Wright's bandwagon for years. (I used to throw a knuckle ball in softball leagues.) I was glad we let Ellsbury, Damon, Pedro and many other aging free agents go. I projected a 98 win season this year. I did not project great seasons for Shaw (although he was my prospect sleeper pick several years ago), Holt and Pablo. I hope I'm wrong on these three guys, but I'm sticking with 98 wins. I hope this provides some background to those here that do not know me. I've never been afraid to admit mistakes and holding wrong positions, but there are a few things I can bee overly and firmly committed to. I've been known to get personal at times, but usually only after being baited or in an effort to expose bigotry or over-righteousness. I realize at times I sound like a know-it-all, but I do not mean to give that impression. I should say "I think..." more often, instead of making claims that sound like facts but are really opinions. I hope to do a better job at not taking the bait on this site. I hope to give some insightful contributions, and I hope this site fills the void I have felt since moving away from New England 12 years ago. I miss the Sox water cooler banter. Go SOX!

I think trading Swihart will be the best idea, but assuming we end up making some sort of deal to get a top quality pitcher, the one argument for keeping Swihart is evident by looking at the depth chart below: C: 3 - Vazquez, Swihart, Hanigan (2 yrs of control) 1B: 8 - HanRam, Shaw, Travis, Holt, Craig, Sandoval, Devers, Moncada 3B: 7 - Shaw, Sandoval, Holt, Marrero, Rutledge, Moncada, Devers OF: 8 - Betts, JBJ, Castillo, Young, Holt, Benintendi, Moncada, Basabe There is a risk trading Swihart, but I still think it's worth it, and I still think there are several GMs that would gladly overpay to take a chance on Blake.

It's nice to know we have so many future options at our near future everyday positions of greatest need. DH: Likely be filled by HanRam with Sandoval, Young, Shaw, Travis and others as possibilities going deeper into the future. 3B: Shaw may end up back at 1B eventually (see 1B) to make room for Devers or Moncada. (We also have some solid bench strength with Sandoval, Holt, Hernandez, Marrero & Rutledge.) Outside chance: Swihart. 1B: HanRam may saty here, if he improves his defense, but it's likely he will move to a near FT DH role next year. If Sandoval ever gets his act back together, he could wind up at 1B, but we also have Shaw and Travis if the near future and the possibility of Devers or Moncada ending up at 1B is real. Outside chance: Swihart. LF/RF: To me, Benintendi looks like he will rise quickly to fill this slot, but until then, we have Young, Castillo, Holt maybe someday Moncada. Outside shot: Swihart. Longer ways away: Basabe. To me, the sheer number of strong possibilities puts us in a position to be very confident we can fill all our near future everyday positional needs in house. We even have an excess that could be packaged to land a quality pitcher. Pitching is and will be our greatest need for quite some time.

Agreed.

Holt has never sustained a great OPS over a whole season.

Have you seen what some teams have for a catcher right now? 1) You have to go down to 40 PAs to get a sample size of 30catchers (1 per team). 2) The mean OPS is .722. 3) Eleven catchers have an OPS of .605 or lower. 4) Seven teams have a catcher with an OPs at .502 or lower 5) Four are at .415 or lower. 6) Whole team catcher OPS is even worse: #15 .661 #20 .594 (Red Sox) #26 .466 #29 .406 (Houston) #30 .392 (TBR) I am convinced some GM would pay dearly for Swihart (or Vazquez).

I agree. Holt and Devers might get us a decent #3 but not a solid #2. I'm for holding onto Moncada (3B or 1B) and Benintendi (OF) and Espinoza (SP), so it really leaves Swihart. GMs will die to get a catcher these days. They will overpay. I'm fine with including Holt in the package, but I'm not sure any GM values him more than some posters do here. I think a package of .... Swihart Devers 2 from Owens, Johnson & Kopech gets us a solid #2 or low #1 if we add Holt or sub Kelly for a pitching prospect listed above. Could we get Sale for Kelly, Swihart, Holt, Devers and one from Owens, Johnson or Kopech?

Let's see if Holt unravels as the season progresses as he has the past couple years.

My family moved from Milwaukee to Maine in the fall of 1971. Shortly afterwards, the Brewers traded Tommy Harper to the Red Sox. Harper was my favorite player, so I switched to the Sox in 1972. I remember that 1/2 game loss. That has to be the closest any team has ever come to winning a division (short of a playoff game, I guess). Aparicio helped make me a lover of defense, especially at the SS position. Fisk, Reggie Smith, Tiant and Lee. Wow, those were the days. I never thought I'd have to wait over 30 years to see a championship, but it was worth it.

Yes, the catching position is the hardest position to fill, and that is precisely the reason why several GMs will gladly overpay for the hope that Swihart develops into a top 5-10 MLB catcher at a low cost for 4+ years. He will never be undersold due to the high value placed on catcher talent, even if speculative in nature. Add Dever (since he is blocked by several vets and possibly even Moncada) plus the SP'er that will be replaced and one from Kopech, Owens or Johnson, and I think we get someone special.

Yeah, I'm not expecting JBJ to hit .280 with 20 HRs, but .275 15 would be Youuuuge

Imagine if JBJ begins to hit at a level somewhere near the halfway point between last August and this year;s numbers.

I hate to part with Swihart, but I think it's bound to happen. We better not trade him for a two month rental this July, but I'd be fine with making him part of a package to get a high quality SP'er with 2+ years of team control (preferably 3+ years). It's not really worth speculating on who might be on the block this July or December, but I could see Swihart being paired with Devers as h.eadliners to a blockbuster for a second ace or top quality #2

Travis Shaw was my "sleeper prospect" pick years ago, but then I pretty much gave up on him becoming a significant force at bat. I also thought his defense would be unacceptable at 3B, but he's looked better than I expected on D. I'm still not sold on his defense, but he's winning me back on my offensive projections. Keep it up TS!

In a good way, yes. That's also one reason I am against spending large and long on a bat this deadline or next winter. Moncada and/or Benintendi are going to have to knock an established vet off a pedestal anyways, so why add one more big bat to the "block the prospects" list? We should spend every available dollar on pitching. I'm not saying I'm a hundred percent content with our everyday players, but it is what it is.

Who is the worst fielder in the starting line-up and is the guy behind him any better on defense and any good on offense? This is how we determine who will DH once Papi retires. It won't be Betts or Pedey, unless they need a rest, and we need their bats in the line-up. It won't be JBJ, because nobody is better in the field, and he doesn't hit like a DH, except for one 5 week stretch. It won't be Castillo (see JBJ). It won't be Bogey, because the guy that can field SS very well, Marrero, can't hit. That leaves HanRam (1B to DH), Shaw (3B or 1B to DH), Sandoval (3B to DH maybe vs RHPs only) or Young (OF to DH vs LHPs). I guess one could argue Swihart, but he's got a lot to prove with the bat, before I even consider him at DH. Assuming we don't add anyone on offense, I'm looking at a Sandy/Young DH platoon with Shaw getting his share (assuming he keeps hitting)- like it or not. Maybe HanRam and others get a little breather here and there as spot DHs, but the bulk will go to Sandy-Young and some Shaw on the side.

Who is the worst fielder in the starting line-up and is the guy behind him any better on defense and offense? This is how we determine who will DH once Papi retires. It won't be Betts or Pedey, unless they need a rest, and we need their bats in the line-up. It won't be JBJ, because nobody is better in the field, and he doesn't hit like a DH, except for one 5 week stretch. It won't be Castillo (see JBJ). It won't be Bogey, because the guy that can field SS very well, Marrero, can't hit. That leaves HanRam (1B to DH), Shaw (3B or 1B to DH), Sandoval (3B to DH maybe vs RHPs only) or Young (OF to DH vs LHPs). I guess one could argue Swihart, but he's got a lot to prove with the bat, before I even consider him at DH. Assuming we don't add anyone on offense, I'm looking at a Sandy/Young DH platoon with Shaw getting his share (assuming he keeps hitting)- like it or not. Maybe HanRam and others get a little breather here and there as spot DHs, but the bulk will go to Sandy-Young and some Shaw on the side.

I got married in Coyocan to a lovely Mexican woman. We lived in Taxquena before moving to Texas in 2008.

Shaw did make a nice play yesterday, but I've seen him miss a lot of balls most 3Bmen would have gotten to.

I love Swihart, and I'm not for handing him away. Not many teams have two young catchers like Vazquez and Swihart along with a capable back-up like Hanigan. As much as I hate to do it, to get top talent, you have to trade top talent. With Vazquez and Hanigan, trading Swihart makes sense. With Shaw, Sandoval, Holt, Rutledge at 3B and the possibility of Moncada ending up at 3B, trading Devers makes sense. Again, this is not because I don't like him as much as anyone here, but we need a top quality SP'er and it will take giving up guys like Swihart and Devers to get one.

Travis Shaw scares me on defense at 3B. I think that 3B is Moncada's likely landing spot. I'm not a scout, so I'm not sure how strong his arm is for 3B, but I have said for years that the Sox wait too long to move prospects to the positions they likely will be used, Moncada should start playing some 3B and LF. Eventually, Devers might need to get some reps at 1B. I still think if Shaw's bat is for real, he'll end up at 1B.

The Globe site had a lot of great posters. Many came and went as site issues and personal attacks got out of hand from time to time. At this point, there's a solid 10-15 consistent contributors there. If all of them come here, I think you guys will be thankful the Globe site went extinct.

Rebuilding a rotation from the middle or bottom is doomed to failure. In other words, looking to upgrade our number 4 of 5 SP'er slightly is not going to make a significant impact. When you add an ace or solid number two, every one else gets knocked down a notch and improves every lower slot by attrition. It would also slide the number 5 into the long relief role this team lacks. The other idea would be to include someone like Kelly in the deal. The big question would be, what can we get for... Kelly, Swihart, Devers, and any two from Owens, Kopech or Johnson?

I'm still not convinced on Shaw, but his bat is looking more and more legit every day. I don't like his defense enough to view him as a long term 3B solution. Eventually, I see Moncada at 3B (or possibly LF) with Devers in the wings. That leaves HanRam, Shaw and Sandoval sharing 1B and DH duties while backing up 3B as well. Sam Travis has an outside shot of crashing the party as well.

Sorry for joining the conversation late and maybe not getting what has already been said or argued, but my opinion is that our biggest need right now is for a solid #2 SP'er. Even after getting Price, I felt like our biggest need was a number two. On another site, I argued that the Kimbrel package should have been expanded (Devers, Owens, Johnson and or Kopech...) to make a big push for a solid number two (Cleveland had a couple SP'ers on the block) or possibly even another ace like Sale. Who knows what it would have taken to get Carrasco or Sale, and who knows how hard we tried. I'm just saying, I think that was our biggest need. Next winter, our pen may be our highest need area as Uehara and Tazawa's contracts expire.