moonslav59

Pablo, Castillo, Owens & Johnson for Braun.

I'm not taking the position that Shaw ought to sit. He's earned a chance to fight through his .551 OPS over the last 28 days stretch. I will say that his sample size of doing very well in MLB looks pretty big, but it is not large enough to know for sure that the stretch from last year to 28 days ago was the real Shaw. Anytime I see a player having a stretch much higher than his most recent 2-3 years in the minors, some sort of doubt lingers. Here's Shaw's splits in the minors: ...................vs RHP/Vs LHP 2015 AAA .703/.610 2014 AAA .850/.508 2014 AA 1.093/.782 2013 AA .719/.775 2012 AA .847/.659 There is a pattern of struggling vs LHPs, so it's not absurd to think that pitchers might have figured something out about Shaw, and if he can't make significant adjustments, he may end up as a platoon player over time. I'm not projecting or expecting it to happen, but I am mindful to the possibility.

One problem with trying to find trade partners these days is parity. As of now there are only a handful of teams that have virtually no chance at even making the playoffs: ATL -16.5 from wildcard OAK -14.5 Cincy -10.0 SDP -9.0 Maybe by the deadline these teams may be toast: OAK -7.5 AZ -7.5 PHIL -5.0 MIL -4.5 COL -4.5 Even if all these teams are sellers come trade deadline time, I don't see much of anything we could realistically trade for on these teams without drastically overpaying

No doubt. Let's hope this is just a slump for Shaw.

The whole "no-brainer" analysis aside, the Red Sox needed to move on from Buchholz simply because the one certainty that he provides is that you have to scramble to replace him every June or July. This statement is not based on anything logical, and this was what I was responding to.

Where did I ever say Buch has been durable or effective since 2010? All I said was Buch has not been as fragile as some seem to think he has been and that he has had a few stretches of fantastic pitching and a few decent ones too. I went out of my way to popint out that the only time he put durability and quality together was 2010. Stop building strawmen by twisting my words and then calling the strawman's intentions dishonest or illogical.

Wow! Really? The guy who says we can expect Buch to go down with an injury is highly logical. The guy who shows that Buch has not missed as much time due to injury is illogical. Gotcha.

I was joking. I meant to put this... not this

Yeah, I doubt Pablo could match Shaw's .551 OPS over the last 28 days

Even 40% is a far cry from an automatic expectation of a season cut short by injury. Plus 18 starts is maybe better than pitchers losing full seasons here and there. From 2010-2016, 208 pitchers have qualified on fangraph's list of starters. Buch places 64th in GS'd at 133. That's hardly horrible. Now, I understand that list includes guys that have not been in the league all 6 years, so I'll change the criteria to pitchers over 25 in 2010 and 600+ IP from 2010-2015. Buch places 53rd out of 85 qualifying starters. Not great, but not even bottom third. Buch places 51st out of 85 in IP. I was responding to the point made about Buch's fragility. I said he was far from being an iron man, but that he was not as fragile as many posters seem to think he is. It's not intellectually dishonest to back my opinion up with facts.

1) It's not dishonest when I printed the MLB games started portion of the total GS'd. Nothing was hidden or distorted. It was all laid out as it was. 2) When the question is stamina or the ability to start more than 14-16 games a season, then it's highly relevant to show how many games Buch has started at any level. If he pitches 16 games in MLB and 14 in AAA, the issue is not health or stamina in that season, instead the issue was likely quality of performance.

I've always felt Holt was a bit over-rated. I appreciate his ability to play so many positions, especially on a team with a FT DH. However, he's not really a plus fielder except for maybe LF and 2B. I'm hoping Castillo does well enough to force a Young/Castillo LF and locks Holt out of a FT job.

I'd be very happy with the subtle change of moving JBJ to 5th. If HanRam gets hot or JBJ slumps, then make another subtle adjustment.

Well, when people are saying Buch can't start more than 14 starts a season, but he has more times than not (minors and majors combined), then bringing up minor league starts is significant. Now, if someone wants to argue that some of those minor league starts we occurring because he wasn't doing well enough to pitch more than 14 starts a season, then that's another argument. But, it's not solely about stamina and health. Clearly Buch has not been reliable. He is usually missing time, recovering from missed time or struggling to find the groove he's shown a few times over his career. Buc's only season of longevity and quality was 2010- his first full season in the bigs. That was long ago. I get that. He had a decent short season in 2011, a long but not very good 2012 season, a fantastic half season in 2013 and a pretty good half season in 2015. So, basically since 2010 (6 seasons not counting 2016, he's given us: 1 good full season (10) 1 not so good full season (12) 1 bad full season (14) 1 off the charts great half season in 2013 1 good half season in 2015 1 pretty good half season in 2011 That's not really a bad record. At least the half seasons of goodness were not followed by pitching horribly the next half, he just missed time instead. Of course, I'd rather have a steady mediocre to good pitcher than one all over the map, but my point is he has not been terrible every year and he has not been hurt to the point of pitching less than 25 starts every year either. . So far, he's given us a horrible half season in 2016. Looking at his career trend of ups and downs, I'm not giving up on him just yet

On Porcello, out of 47 AL starters who qualify for the leader boards... ERA- Leaders 1) 48 Wright 19) 88 Porcello 30) 106 Price It's sad to note that you have to go down to 30 IP to get an American League sample size of starters to 75 (15 teams x 5 starters). THis is one method of seeing how our pitchers ranke in terms of being an average 1 starter, 2 starter, 3 starter and on and on. ERA- rankings 1) Wright 48 2) Salazar 53 (The guy many said was not #1 material when I suggested we trade for him) 8) Quintana 63 (another starter many felt was not "ace material") 10) Zimmerman (To be fair, a SP'er I thought was over-rated) 26) Carrasco (another suggested trade candidate of mine) 29 Porcello (in theory- a low number two in the AL) 32) Kluber 33) Verlander 40) Iwakuma 42) Price 44) Latos (recently DFA'd) 62) S Gray 63) W Miley 69) Buchholz 71) A Sanchez So, in theory, Wright is the top #1 SP in the AL, Porcello is a bottom number 2, Price a bottom number 3, and Buch a near bottom number 5. If Kelly had enough IP, he'd be at the bottom of the barrel as one of the very worst #5s.

I want to add that I realize Buch has not put together a good ERA- and 26+ starts since 2010, so I get that taking on his option was a gamble, but he has had a good ERA= in 5 of his last 8 seasons, including 2 of the last 4. He's not too removed from his historic 2013 season, albeit shortened as it was.

I'm not trying to argue that Buch is some sort of iron man- clearly he is not, but he is actually not as fragile as many seem to portray him as being. Including minor league starts, here are the total GS'd by Buch since 2006: 06 24 (minors only) 07 27 (including 3 MLB) 08 26 (15 MLB) 09 32 (16 MLB) 10 29 (28 MLB) 11 14 (all MLB) 12 30 (29MLB) 13 18 (16 MLB) 14 28 (all MLB) 15 18 (all MLB) 16 14++ (all MLB) If you cherry pick 2011 as the starting point of your sample size, you could claim that Buch has not had more than 18 starts in 3 of his previous 5 seasons before 2016, but I would say that 60% is a sure bet he pitches just half a season. One could cherry pick from 2007 to 2010 and point out that Buch never started less than 26 starts in that 4 year stretch. Overall, since 2008, Buch has never had less than 14 professional basbeall starts in any given season. From 2008-2015 (8 seasons), Buch has started 26 or more times 5 times (63%). He's started 28 or more games in 4 of his last 7 seasons. Look, I'm not happy with Buch's 2016 performance, and I was as frustrated as everyone else when he went down with an injury last year (and 2013 & 2011), but he's shown he can pitch 27+ starts often enough that I don't think it's a slam dunk observation to think he's a cinch to get hurt every year. I was in favor of giving him the option, because even Buch at 14 games (the good Buch) is worth $13M at today's FA prices, and the chance he might give us 26+ starts was not out of the question. I also have noted in other threads that Buch has had 2 of MLB best ERA- seasons in the past 40+ years. The hope that he can still pitch like that was the tipping point in my opinion to keep him around another year. I also mentioned it was worth offering the option, even if we ended up trading him. That option is probably gone now, unless we pay part of his contract. I am still clinging to the hope that Buch will regain his old form and give us a strong half season, but I'm not at all confident it will happen.

I never said Betts "had to" leadoff, and I'd be fine flipping B & B, but I think from here on out Betts will have as good an OBP as Bogey. I kinda made the line-up as a compromise to Farrell's L-R hang-up. Personally, I'd bat Papi 3rd and JBJ 4th. Both do fine vs lefties, so just put 'em both up when it counts most. Maybe something like this: Betts-Bogey-Papi-JBJ-Pedey-Ram-Young-Shaw-Vaz (or flip B & .

We certainly had question marks this winter and spring, but with so much depth and flexibility, I was always confident our offense would be more than fine. Even though Sandoval did not work out, Holt struggled and got hurt, Castillo was demoted, Young started out slowly and Swihart lost his starting catcher slot, we never missed a beat. My other main point was that even if we ended up with a "black hole" or two in our line-up, we still looked to be better off than just about every other AL offense with the possible exception of the Blue Jays (pre-season outlook). In other words, the question marks we had were less severe and in less quantity than every other AL team, and we had more options than other teams to fill in, if some of the question marks turned into known failures. Shaw filled in nicely for Sandy. Holt did well, at first, filling in for Castillo.Now, Young looks like de Aza on steroids. Swihart looks to be a nice supporting left fielder when he returns. Vazquez has not hit well so far, but we have easily absorbed his lack of offense as expected. Having Hanigan, Leon and Swihart in reserve is a nice compliment. Having a 3rd catcher (Swihart) playing LF will allow us to PH for Vazquez late in games. I can't think of a Sox team with more flexibility and inter-changeable players since the Papi as near permanent DH era began. We have 3-4 OF'ers who can play Cf well. I'm not sure we ever had that. Shaw can play 1B or 3B. When Holt is healthy, we have a jack-of-all trades. Swihart gives us great flexibility at catcher and OF. Of course, I did not expect this great offensive start, but I was never afraid our offense would flop or be a weakness. It's always been pitching, since we lost Pedro, Schilling, Beckett and Lester. Getting Price was a step in the right direction, and Wright having a great season has enabled us to stay near the top of the league, but I still think we have a clear weakness to deal with at the trading deadline (or before).

Well said. I have always enjoyed your input on prospects. I share your excitement over this draft. I guess it's easy to become negative when so much of MLB drafting is a crapshoot, but Groome clearly has talent. At his age, I think immaturity is the expectation not the exception. I'm psyched by the pick.

The whole lefty-righty thing is over-rated. I can see not messing with the top 4, but I still like this line-up best: 1) Betts 2) Bogey 3) Papi 4) Pedey 5) JBJ 6) HanRam 7) Shaw(1B) /Young (LF) 8) Swihart (LF)/Shaw (1B) 9) Vazquez/Hanigan/Swihart ©

While I agree, Wright's doing pretty darn well even without anyone who can catch him.

I can see putting JBJ 5th.

None of the high school pitchers taken in the first rounds of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts has made an MLB appearance to date. Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers are the only high school pitchers from the first round of the 2012 draft who have made MLB debuts. One reason I think 3-5 years is more realistic- maybe even 4-5 is better.

Remember all the posters thinking our biggest need was a bat?