moonslav59

Talking about "pace" does not necessarily mean that's what you think the player will end up with, but it does have value as it can be used as a tool to conceptualize how well a player is doing at a given point in a season. For example, if I told you a player has 15 HRs at some point in a season, if might not mean much, but people do know that hitting 45 HRs over a full season is pretty darn good, so if a player has 15 HRs after a third of a season, the "on pace for 45" just shows the pro-rated value of 45. If a player had 15 HRs after 75% of the season, he'd be on pace for 20. It's all relative, and so I do think using the "on pace for" phrase does have value. It's not absolutely worthless. We all know a guy who hits 3 Hrs in the first two games of a season might be "on pace" to hit 400HRs, so in the limited sense like this, the statement is useless, but once you get closet o half a season, it does have conceptual value, but not necessarily projecting value.

Yeah, you're probably right, although acquiring RP'ers are usually much easier and less costly at the deadline than serviceable starters.

Porcello has quietly got off to his best ERA+ and WHIP season in his 8 year career. I know it's early, but the hopes that he might improve as he entered his middle prime may be coming true.

Quality Starts numbers: MLB Average is 48% 85% Wright 71% Price 62% Porcello Team record in starts: 8-5 Wright 8-5 Porcello 8-6 Price 24-16 Total 13-13 The rest. (I would have thought our 4-5 slot starters would have been worse than .500.) Some props to Porcello for having his best ERA+ and WHIP season of his whole career (8th year).

We're just pass the 40% point of the season and our top 3 starters are 22-8 with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.11. Our line-up consists of 4 guys with an OPS over .900: Ortiz 1.147 JBJ .951 Bogey .908 Young .900 3 more guys over .795: Betts .851 Pedey .830 Shaw .795 And then HanRam at .725 and Vazquez at .547 (.603 catching OPS).

If ERod's injury is causing him to pitch differently or change his mechanics, I'd shut him down until he's all the way back. Don't mess up this kid!

I'm wonder if it's worth stretching our Barnes and giving him a shot at the 5 slot before we make a deal.

Another reason I thought we should have gone all out this past winter. I realize getting the best starter and best closer was pretty spectacular, but we're in an awful bind now.

Posted earlier on other threads... Here are the current worst teams by record in MLB and their best pitchers: MN- No SP'ers with an ERA under 5.00, except Pat Dean who has a WHIP over 1.41. The only 2 RP'ers having decent years are 30 year old Fernando Abad and 31 year old Brandon Kintzler. ATL- 25 year old Julio Teheran as been discussed (2.93/0.989), but there's also 23 y/o Matt Wisler (4.23/1.181) and 25 y/o closer Arodys Vizcaino (2.22/1.235 but with a 13 K/9 rate). There's also lefty RP'er (26 y/o) Hunter Cervenka (3.10/1.180 and 12.0 k/9) SP- Tyson Ross is hurt, but there is lefty 27 y/o Drew Pomeranz (2.88/1.173 and 10.7 K/9) and 39 y/o closer Fernando Rodney who has yet to allow an earned run in 23.1 IP (0.857 WHIP/ 8.1 k/9). 29 y/o lefty Ryan Buchter is off to a nice start (1.86 CIN- Dan Straily (27) 3.66/1.195, Brandon Finnegan (23 lefty) 3.61/1.312 OAK- Sonny Gray has been hurt and not pitching well, 36 y/o Rich Hill is on the DL, but they have quite a few RP'ers doing well so far this year. BB has a history of trading RP'ers often: Ryan Dull (26) 2.31/0.800, Sean Doolittle (29 lefty) 2.67/0.926, Fernando Rodriquez (32) 2.65/0.971 AZ- I doubt Greinke is even up for discussion, so all that's left are 4 RP'ers: Tyler Clippard (31) 3.65/1.378 and 10.2 K/9, Daniel Hudson (29) 1.73/0.846, Jake Barrett (24) 2.16/1.040 & Brad Ziegler (36) 2.93/1.446. LAA- I don't see anyone worthwhile that is healthy and doing well, except RP'er Cam Bedrosian (24) 1.61/1.299 and 9.7 K/9. PHI- 23 y/o Aaron Nola 3.51/1.134/9.9 K/9 and Jerad Eickhoff (25) 3.40/1.172 are doing very well. Vincent Velasquez (24) is on the DL 3.65/1.265 and maybe a couple RPers Hector Neris 11 K/9 and David Hernandez 11.5 K/9. MIL- Zach Davies (23) 3.88/1.181, Junior Guerra (31)3.81/1.178 & Jimmy Nelson (27) 3.92/1.353 plus RP'er Tyler Thornburg (27) 2.60/0.759 and 12.7 K/9 rate. I haven't even heard of some of these guys, and I'm no expert on other teams' players, but maybe someone from this group can become available and eventually help us. ______________________________________________________ Swihart would be the headliner on a package, in theory, to get a solid pitcher. I have contended that Blake's value as a starting catcher on another team is more than his value as a platoon LF'er/3rd string catcher for the Sox. Please do not take this to mean I value Swihart less than any of you do. I still think he is a great young talent with high value. My second major piece would be Devers. I realize that Shaw is still not a sure bet at 3B, and with HanRam possibly being our DH next year, trading Devers could be viewed as risky. However, I think Moncada's ultimate landing spot might be 3B, 1B or DH (with LF as another choice). We also have Sam Travis and Pablo Sandoval in the mix at 3B/1B next year, if Shaw falters. I think these facts essentially mean Devers is all but blocked. Again, this does not mean I devalue Devers. I just see his value as being greater for another team, and that is a foundation for making a trade offer. So, my choice for making a serious offer for a solid #2 type SP'er would start with Swihart and Devers. To improve our chances at getting the best (non rental) SP'er out there for this portion of a package, we could do one or more of the following: 1) Take on a high salary pitcher or add another high salary player as a salary dump (like Mike Lowell was in the Beckett deal). 2) Offer someone like Castillo or Pablo with just about all their salary paid, assuming the other team wants one. 3) Widen the package with a vet or two, if the team is looking to seriously compete next year (such as Holt or Kelly/Buchholz/Barnes/Elias/Layne) 4) Widen the package with mid-level prospects such as... Kopech, Owens, Johnson, Lakins, Light, TBall, Stanki/ K Martin/C Acosta Marrero, Hernandez, Dubon, Chavis, Longhi, Ockimey or maybe even Travis Basabe or Yoan Aybar 5) Offer cash I'd try hard to do any of the above, before I part with Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza. Note: just because a guy like Sam Travis is ranked 5th in our system, doesn't mean his value is equal to other teams' #5 prospect. Not many teams have 4 top prospects like ours.

Erod is dealing with injury, so I'm holding out hope he gets healthy and then finds his groove. It might be a better chance than Buch finding himself.

I disagree on trading Benintendi over Swihart for various reasons. I feel... 1) Benintendi is better than Swihart. 2) Vazquez is better at Catcher than Swihart. 3) Vazquez is better at Catcher than Young/Swihart are in LF, so LF is a higher need area 2 years out than C. 4) Swihart should bring more in return than Benintendi,

Whenever you have two guys pitching like aces and an offense like ours, you have a shot in the playoffs. That's why we are still close to the best record in the AL. If we can acquire a solid #2 type this summer and just one of the guys left over turns things around. I'd bet on ERod with Buch as an longshot.

Swihart would be the headliner on a package, in theory, to get a solid pitcher. I have contended that Blake's value as a starting catcher on another team is more than his value as a platoon LF'er/3rd string catcher for the Sox. Please do not take this to mean I value Swihart less than any of you do. I still think he is a great young talent with high value. My second major piece would be Devers. I realize that Shaw is still not a sure bet at 3B, and with HanRam possibly being our DH next year, trading Devers could be viewed as risky. However, I think Moncada's ultimate landing spot might be 3B, 1B or DH (with LF as another choice). We also have Sam Travis and Pablo Sandoval in the mix at 3B/1B next year, if Shaw falters. I think these facts essentially mean Devers is all but blocked. Again, this does not mean I devalue Devers. I just see his value as being greater for another team, and that is a foundation for making a trade offer. So, my choice for making a serious offer for a solid #2 type SP'er would start with Swihart and Devers. To improve our chances at getting the best (non rental) SP'er out there for this portion of a package, we could do one or more of the following: 1) Take on a high salary pitcher or add another high salary player as a salary dump (like Mike Lowell was in the Beckett deal). 2) Offer someone like Castillo or Pablo with just about all their salary paid, assuming the other team wants one. 3) Widen the package with a vet or two, if the team is looking to seriously compete next year (such as Holt or Kelly/Buchholz/Barnes/Elias/Layne) 4) Widen the package with mid-level prospects such as... Kopech, Owens, Johnson, Lakins, Light, TBall, Stanki/ K Martin/C Acosta Marrero, Hernandez, Dubon, Chavis, Longhi, Ockimey or maybe even Travis Basabe or Yoan Aybar 5) Offer cash I'd try hard to do any of the above, before I part with Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza. Note: just because a guy like Sam Travis is ranked 5th in our system, doesn't mean his value is equal to other teams' #5 prospect. Not many teams have 4 top prospects like ours.

I realize Young has a poor history vs RHPs, but the guys in the midst of putting together 2 straight pretty good seasons. I know he hasn't hit 20 HRs since 2011, but he did hit 20+ 4 times in his career. Out of 100 OF'ers with 450+ PAs since 2015, Young's .808 OPS places him 29th. I'm not saying he's great or will continue over .800 the rest of 2016, but I feel pretty good with him in LF vs RHPs and very very good with him out there vs LHPs.

1) We may keep Hanigan, especially if we end up trading Swihart. 2) The total "savings" off our current payroll would be $16M Ortiz, $13M Buch, $9M Uehara and $4M Tazawa would total $39M, but since we are already over the luxury tax limit by about $10M, and it's uncertain if Henry is willing to pay an even stiffer tax next season, we may not have as much to spend as we think. 3) Luckily the luxury tax limit is supposed to go up significantly next year. You are right, we don't have room to repeat the mistakes of Sandy, HanRam and Castillo. If we assume we only have $30-40M to spend next year, I can't see us spending it anywhere else but on pitching. I suppose we could make a trade or two using our top prospects and get cost-controlled players, which would allow extra spending on offense, but I'm strongly averse to trading Moncada, Benintendi and Espinoza unless we get something very very special in return.

I'd rather part with Swihart and any two below our #7 prospect. I might consider Swihart, Devers and choose two or three from Dubon, TBall, Owens, Johnson or Kopech for Teheran & Vizcaino or Cervenka

I totally agree. Right now, soxprospects.com projects our 2017 pitching staff as such: Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright, Buch/Kelly Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Layne, Ross, Elias There's a shitload of holes here. These holes will cost millions to fill and or several top prospects in trade... or both.

Plus, wasn't there doubts about how he got hurt? That he lied about where and when he got hurt?

Nomar had 5 or 6 really good to great seasons. I'm thinking Bogey will beat him on longevity alone, but even if you go back and look at Bogey's best 6 year stretch, my guess is he'll have a pretty even WAR total than Nomar's best 6 year span.

I do. That's why they paid so much for Young. We also have Holt returning at some point.

Here's a possible look at our 2017 line-up, assuming no major acquisitions on offense: 1) Betts RF 2) Pedroia 2B 3) Bogaerts SS 4) Bradley CF 5) Ramirez DH/1B 6) Shaw/Moncada 3B/1B/DH 7) Moncada/Young/Benintendi/Swihart LF/3B/DH 8) Young/Swihart/Benintendi LF/DH 9) Vazquez/Hanigan/Swihart C Certainly, this is not as good as a line-up with Papi, but it's still a plus offense.

Here are the current worst teams by record in MLB and their best pitchers: MN- No SP'ers with an ERA under 5.00, except Pat Dean who has a WHIP over 1.41. The only 2 RP'ers having decent years are 30 year old Fernando Abad and 31 year old Brandon Kintzler. ATL- 25 year old Julio Teheran as been discussed (2.93/0.989), but there's also 23 y/o Matt Wisler (4.23/1.181) and 25 y/o closer Arodys Vizcaino (2.22/1.235 but with a 13 K/9 rate). There's also lefty RP'er (26 y/o) Hunter Cervenka (3.10/1.180 and 12.0 k/9) SP- Tyson Ross is hurt, but there is lefty 27 y/o Drew Pomeranz (2.88/1.173 and 10.7 K/9) and 39 y/o closer Fernando Rodney who has yet to allow an earned run in 23.1 IP (0.857 WHIP/ 8.1 k/9). 29 y/o lefty Ryan Buchter is off to a nice start (1.86 CIN- Dan Straily (27) 3.66/1.195, Brandon Finnegan (23 lefty) 3.61/1.312 OAK- Sonny Gray has been hurt and not pitching well, 36 y/o Rich Hill is on the DL, but they have quite a few RP'ers doing well so far this year. BB has a history of trading RP'ers often: Ryan Dull (26) 2.31/0.800, Sean Doolittle (29 lefty) 2.67/0.926, Fernando Rodriquez (32) 2.65/0.971 AZ- I doubt Greinke is even up for discussion, so all that's left are 4 RP'ers: Tyler Clippard (31) 3.65/1.378 and 10.2 K/9, Daniel Hudson (29) 1.73/0.846, Jake Barrett (24) 2.16/1.040 & Brad Ziegler (36) 2.93/1.446. LAA- I don't see anyone worthwhile that is healthy and doing well, except RP'er Cam Bedrosian (24) 1.61/1.299 and 9.7 K/9. PHI- 23 y/o Aaron Nola 3.51/1.134/9.9 K/9 and Jerad Eickhoff (25) 3.40/1.172 are doing very well. Vincent Velasquez (24) is on the DL 3.65/1.265 and maybe a couple RPers Hector Neris 11 K/9 and David Hernandez 11.5 K/9. MIL- Zach Davies (23) 3.88/1.181, Junior Guerra (31)3.81/1.178 & Jimmy Nelson (27) 3.92/1.353 plus RP'er Tyler Thornburg (27) 2.60/0.759 and 12.7 K/9 rate. I haven't even heard of some of these guys, and I'm no expert on other teams' players, but maybe someone from this group can become available and eventually help us.

Yes, and .725 is respectable on it's own, but when Swihart returns, we can probably do better than that.

Agreed. Hopefully, Benintendi and/or Moncada can make the 25 man roster and take up some of the slack at DH, 1B, 3B, LF and wherever else we may need a boost offensively. I think we will need all available financial resources to find a SP'er and replace Uehara and Tazawa.

I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, but picking up guys like the two you mentioned would have been so much easier during this past winter. The overpay needed to pick up a decent starter near the deadline is always way too high. I'm not saying I'm against picking up a 2 month rental, but parting with a top 6 or 7 prospect to get one would really piss me off.