moonslav59

Exactly the reason why we should have taken the extension and traded him for the best possible return, even if just for a very promising single- A pitcher. Let someone else take the "gamble".

Kimbrel's been a real savior, right? 32 IP for about $7M (half his salary)and just about all of our best mid-level prospects. 2 blown saves and 3 losses in 32 appearances is not bad, but it's not great either. One thing Billy Beane was right about was the over-valuing of closers in MLB.

Not to bars you frequent.

The Rays have new management. One never knows.

Some of those guys were extensions. I was trying to focus more on the idea of viewing big FA signings as the answer to a team's biggest problems. Also, to highlight just how hard it is to choose wisely when making a big signing. So many posters cry for the next big signing, then blame the GM for "choosing wrongly" when the odds are greatly stacked against "choosing wisely". It's like the movie War Games, where the best choice is "not to play the game". I'll take your choice of Cano. No doubt he's helped the M's greatly, but it's a 10 year deal on a team with a restricted budget. Plus, when you look at the early years of his deal, when the most was expected from him, he still has not given the M's the same WAR he had given the Yanks in the prior 4 years with the Yanks: 6.3 2010 5.1 2011 7.6 2012 5.8 2013 24.8/4 years= 6.2 avg with M's: 5.2 2014 2.1 2015 3.1 in 1/2 of 2016 10.4/ 2.5 yrs= 4.1 avg I think the M's expected better than a 4.1 WAR pace over his first 3 years. They expected better knowing they'd probably get worse down the back 4-5 years of his deal. Yeah, the value page on fangraph's might say he was "worth it", but can you honestly say he's produced like they hoped he would have? Like they expected him to produce? Right now, I can see the argument for saying he's been an overall "plus signing", but not a clear success, and by the end of the 10 years, my guess is the signing will be viewed as an overall negative. And, he's a guy we point to as an example of a signing working for the team! I know it's hard for you to do, but forget the fangraph value page for a moment, look over the list of just the top 60 or so FA signings on my list, and tell me how many were clear success signings and how many were plus signings based on team expectations and how much these players helped their team win a ring or significantly improve to the point where they got close to winning it all..

Actually, the Sox did plan on one SP'er not working out, and Wright filled that hole miraculously. The problem was our plan from our 7th starter down failed miserably. ERo'd injury and Kelly's implosion plus no great half year from Buch exposed the whole quantity vs quality plan for the bottom of our rotation. Yeah, maybe one out of 8 might turn out like Wright, but when you need 2 or 3 out of 8 mediocre-at-best SP'ers to perform well, your plan is flawed.

Forget WAR for a minute. Let's put it this way, in today's market, ff we could acquire a SP'er right now that would give us 18 starts (starting today) and give us a 3.26 ERA (130 ERA+) in 113 IP, how much would that be worth in dollars to you? No prospects needed. Just sign this guy knowing you get just 18 starts.

Sometimes it takes longer for a pitcher to comeback fro TJS. Sometimes pitchers never return to "form". Moore would be a big risk, but maybe a good risk.

Incorrect. The best "hindsight choice would have been to take the option and trade him. This was what several of us posters suggested last winter. If you see what some clowns with worse injury histories and performance records got paid, then Buch was tradeable and should have been.

I just hope it's not an overpay for a 2 month rental.

MLBTR reports... Matt Moore rumors build. Rays starter Matt Moore still hasn’t returned to his 2012-2013 form after having Tommy John surgery in 2014, but he’s attracting trade interest, with the Rangers one of several interested clubs. The Rays could be motivated to deal Moore in part because they could soon have a starting pitching surplus. I know this guy isn't the ideal pitcher to go after, but he's still young (just turned 27), and he is under team control for 3 1/3 years: 16:$5M, 17:$7M club option ($2.5M buyout), 18:$9M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$10M club option ($0.75M buyout) It's a big risk, no doubt, but maybe we should kick the tires.

I meant because of the score. It was a joke. However, I do avoid game threads due to usually watching the games on delay, so I can fast forward commercials. I'm also someone who gets perturbed over small sample size definitive judgments, and those threads are often loaded with them.

I can see why someone might want to avoid the game thread these days.

The other issue is about the quality of FA SP'ers this winter. To greatly improve our rotation, we almost have to do it by trade, We may end up having to trade for a high-priced pitcher, in order to lessen the prospect offer, so we'll know what we have to spend after we take care of our number one need: a solid SP'er. Starting Pitchers Brett Anderson Bronson Arroyo Brandon Beachy Andrew Cashner John Danks Jorge de la Rosa R.A. Dickey Scott Feldman Jaime Garcia Gio Gonzalez * Jeremy Guthrie Jason Hammel * Jeremy Hellickson Derek Holland * Daniel Hudson Edwin Jackson Cliff Lee Cory Luebke Kris Medlen * Matt Moore * Charlie Morton * Jon Niese * Ivan Nova Jake Peavy Edinson Volquez * Jered Weaver C.J. Wilson Travis Wood

The next time we think about filling a big need area with a big name FA, think about this.... Top Free Agent Signings by Dollar Amount from 1999 to 2016 1999: K Brown $105M/7, Piazza $91M/7 2000: K Griffey Jr. $117M/9 2001: ARod $252M/10, M Ramirez $160M/8, M Hampton $121M/8 2002: Giambi $120M/7, B Bonds $90M/5 2003: S Rolen $90M/8 2005: C Beltran $119M/7 2007: A Soriano $136M/8, B Zito $126M/7, J Schmidt $47M/3 2008: ARod $275M/10, C Zambrano $92M/5, T Hunter $90M/5, Suzuki $90M/5, Buehrle $56M/4 2009: Teixeira $180M/8, Sabathia $161M/7, M Young $80M/5 2010: M Holliday $120M/7 2011: Mauer $184M/8, Crawford $142M/7, Werth $126M/7, C Lee $120M/5, A Dunn $56M/4 2012: Pujols $240M/10, Fielder $214M/9. Kemp $160M/8, Sabathia $122M/5, J Reyes $106M/6, CJ Wilson $78M/5, Buehrle $56M/4, Danks $75M/5 2013: Greinke $147M/8 (opted out), J Hamilton $125M/5. Cespedes $75M/3E Jackson $52M/4, R Soriano $28M/2 2014: Cano $240M/10, Tanaka $155M/7, Ellsbury $153M/7, Choo $130M/7, Pence $90M/5, B McCann $85M/5 2015: Scherzer $210M/7, Lester $155M/6, E Andrus $120M/8, Sandoval $95M/5, H Ramirez $88M/4, E Sanatan $55M/4, $68M/5 VMart 2016: Price $217M/7, Greinke $207M/6, Heywood $184M/8, C Davis $161M/7, J Upton $133M/6, Cueto, $130M/6, Zimmerman $110M/5, Samardzja $90M/5 I may not be completely accurate on who was a FA or extension, and I may have missed some top free agent signings, but out of these 60 or so big FA signings, how many have been clear success stories? How many have been moderately successful? How many have been bad signings, and how many have been horrible signings? (Note: dollar amounts on signings in the early 2000’s and late 1900’s should reflect inflation in baseball salaries. Some players were left off this list due to that aspect.) Extensions: Stanton $325M/13, Miggy $248M/8, Votto $225M/10, Kershaw $215M/7, Jeter $189M/10, Verlander $180M/7, F Hernandez $175M/7, Strasburg $175M/7, Posey $167M/9, Tulowizki $158M/10, AGon $154M/7, Trout $145M/6, Hamels $144M/6, Helton $142M/9 (2003), D Wright $138M/8, Jo Santana $138M/6, F Freeman $135M/8, M Cain $128M/6, V Wells $126M/7, R Howard $125M/5, Pedroia $110M/8, R Braun $105M/5, Pujols $100M/7, C Lee $100M/6 (2007), R Zimmerman $100M/6, Longoria $100M/6, K seager $100M/7, Wainwright $98M/5

Okay- maybe, but he's already on the 40 man roster. Who is going to be added to the 40 man?

I'll repost what I poster earlier below, but basically, we'll have between $40 to $50M to spend next winter and stay just below the new luxury limit. This assuming we cut Buch and Hanigan loose. That may seem like a lot, but we might have all these positions to fill: SP2) SP5) RP2) RP4) LF at least vs RHPs) DH/3B/1B) Unless we trade some of our top prospects, which I'd like to avoid, I don't see how we can fill all these slots with just $40 to $50M. If we can get a solid, low cost, team controlled #2 SP'er with Swihart, Devers, Travis, Kopech and Holt, then I think we can do it. C: Vazquez/Leon 1B: HanRam 2B: Pedroia 3B: TShaw/Pablo or Moncada SS: Bogey LF: FA or Benintendi/Young CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: Encarnacion IF: Hernandez SP1) Price SP2) via trade SP3) Wright SP4) Porcello SP5) FA or ERod Closer) Kimbrel RP2) FA RP3) C Smith RP4) FA RP5) Hembree RP6) Ross RP7) Barnes, Kelly, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Light or Layne Repost: Now that Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax, let's re-look at next year's luxury budget numbers: Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.) Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $17.25M Arbs (9 players): Bogaerts:$650K > ~$3.5M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$2.7M (1 of 4) Kelly: $2.6M>$2.5M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.5M (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $800K (1 of 3) Layne: $564K> $700K (1 of 4) Rutledge: $minor> $700K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3) TOTAL ARBS: ~$14M TOTAL of 18 players: ~$155M ($138M without Buch and Hanigan) The 22 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Cuevas & LaMarre TOTAL: ~$12M Grand Total: $167M or $150M (No Buch/Hanigan) Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is... $178M or $161M That leaves us with about $11M to $28M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M. That would mean we'll have between $22M and $32M, or if we dump Buch and Hanigan between $39M and $49M to spend on added salary and be close to the limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

I don't think Holy has any magical "chemistry" powers. I think relying on him in a FT role is asking for trouble. I would never think about moving our 2nd best OPS and SLG player to the 9 slot, just because we won a few more games back when he batted 9th. It's like betting the house on heads because heads have won 5 straight times.

We need a power bat for 2017. Encarnacion will be coming off $10M contract. Someone also to keep an eye on is Josh Donaldson when he will be FA after 2017 season. Moon may disagree but we can afford a power bat and replace Ortiz' $16M contract. And we can pay for a high end pitcher. I think we'd be over the new luxury limit, but that may be okay with Henry. We also need to replace or r-sign Uehara and Tazawa and may need a 4/5 slot pitcher, if ERod never regains. We may also need a LF'er who can hit righties, if Moncada or Beninendi don't make there it by 2017. Yes, we can "do it", but it won't be easy without some sort of major trade for a cheaper, major role player(s). With our record on FA signings, I'm not holding my breath on that being our solution to filling multiple holes next winter. All resources at some point will need to be focused on top of the line starting pitcher. Swihart, Benintendi,Devers, Shaw and every single pitcher should be available for the trade. Obviously Moncada, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts are untouchables. Agreed. I'd try hard to avoid trading Beninendi due to our big need in LF, and some better offense to help compensate a little for Papi's loss. I also hate the idea of trading our best pitching prospect since Lesster. I think we can get something very special next winter for Swihart, Devers, Travis, Kopech and Holt. We can always find position players. It's the pitching that gets tricky, especially when you see we have nothing in Sox pipeline. I'm all about upgrading our pitching staff from the top not the bottom. That's why I think signing & spending on another big bat might cut into the quality and quantity of pitchers we do end up getting.

1) Holt's .747 April OPS was not a big key to our early success. Besides, asking for Holt to continue at even .747 all year goes against his norm. 2) Young's .935 May and .903 June blew Holt's April away. 3) I don't see how having two of our best 3 SLG% guys up 9th and 1st helps anything. 4) JBJ's OPS batting 9th 1.025 is not much better than ... 7th 1.083 (not even better!) 8th 1.000 6th .950 JBJ only has 30 PAs batting 5th (.600 OPS), so I doubt that's the reason we've sucked in June. (BTW, JBJ had an .805 June OPS, which is one of the team's best during that month.)

I'd guess none. It may affect us 3-6 years from now.

We are 43-36 so far, even with 40% of our rotation being as bad as I can ever remember. You may be surprised by these numbers: team records in starts by.... Wright 9-7 Price 10-7 Porcello 11-5 Top 3 are 30-19 The 40% are 13-17. That may be pretty bad, but it's far far from a "forfeit". Now, one could argue going 13-17 was done with smoke and mirrors and is likely not sustainable here on out, and I wouldn't argue with that, but an equally valid argument could be made that if Wright continues to pitch like he did over the first half of 2016, we shouldn't go 9-7 in his last 16 starts. If Price "turns it around" and that's what this debate is about, we can expect better than 10-7 in his last 17 starts. So, if Wright goes 11-5 and Price goes 13-4, we'd only need our bottom 40% starters to go 8-22 to keep up our current winning percentage. Once in the playoffs, an "in form" Price plus Porcello and Wright stacks up pretty well with just about any other AL team except for the Guardians. With our bats and defense, I'd give us a decent chance to make the WS. Remember, we have Papi- the Guardians don't.

We're in the playoffs right now, if the season ended today. That's with Price pitching like a number 4/5 slot pitcher. Please go and look at the rotations of the teams behind us in the AL wild card race and tell me they don't have as many holes as we do. Then look at the offensive comparison and fielding while you're at it.

It's doable, but it won't be easy, especially if we keep swinging and missing on free agency.

Once you make the playoffs, it's a crapshoot. You only need 3-4 solid starters for the playoffs, and with so many days off, the pen depth is rarely "exposed". I'm not saying we'll be favorites with Price "back to form", but we may be AL faves, so getting to the big dance is still on the table, even without any major trade. It's not that big an if hoping for Price to turn it around, and Porcello & Wright to keep going as is. Look at other AL teams. They all have weaknesses and have gone through bad stretches this year at some point.