moonslav59

You still don't get it. Buch has had several good to great half seasons. Clearly his sample sizes combined are more conclusive than one half season by itself, especially, if that half season is at odds with a player's minor league performance level. Take the Travis Shaw example, I have been cautioning Shaw praisers that his sample size is too small and at odds with his previous record in the minors. I also cautioned JBJ bashers over making definitive judgments based on small sample sizes. Pomeranz has had one good half season. His minor league record is good but not as good as his 2016 half season. There's too much of a chance, IMO, that this half season might be an outlier. I don't think having 4 half seasons and one full season can be construed as being outlier seasons/halfseasons.

Who knows how the deal went down, but in theory, if Ben was on top of his game, he'd have told Beane to call him before he finalizes any deal for Donaldson, to see if he might be able to top the other team's offer. I don't actually see it that way. I think Ben should have contacted Beane and given him a near top offer for JD, it should have been better than Toronto's to begin with.

You, again, misinterpret and misstate my position. 1) Buch has had 1 really good full season and one okay full season. He's had 1 great half season and a couple other very good ones. That's a big difference from Pomeranz's one good half season. 2) I stated that Buch's several full and half seasons of greatness and plus sample sizes was what gave us hope he might give us a full plus season this year. 3) Almost every time I defended Buch was in response to someone mistakenly representing his portfolio. I was actually for taking Buch's option and trading him, so I'm not sure how that can be viewed as "trumpeting". Somehow you find ways to convolute just about everything anyone posts.

Yes, that's why I'm saying we should strive for a non-rental.

Are we really so sure Pomeranz is a "solid pitcher"? He's never started more than 22 games in MLB. Until this year, he only started over 10 games once (in 2012). I'm just not one to over react to half season sample sizes. I'm not saying I don't want him, but I'm afraid the cost will be way too high for someone who is not even close to a sure bet.

I'm always hesitant to trade for a rental, even though the cost is less than trying for a longer term solution. Then, there's Hill's health and injury dilemma. The thing that tips my opinion away from a rental is the fact that next winter's FA starter's list is short and weak. Usually, it's easier to solve long term solutions during the winter, but next winter may be harder to do that.

I'm always against trying to acquire 4/5 slot pitchers. Even getting 1/2 slot pitchers are somewhat of a gamble, but 5 slot guys are prone to not produce as hopes for. I know a lot of people think Peavy was a significant factor in our 2013 championship, but I'm not sure I agree. I realize the catch-22 aspect of our situation. We all want a solid young SP'er with several years of affordable team control. We all don't want too part with Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Moncada, Beni, Espi, Swi and maybe Devers. To get a longer term solution to our rotation need, we're going to have to part with some top talent. They question comes down to who is available and how can we get one without parting with too much top talent. I hate parting with any of the players listed above, but to me, the players we can probably still get by after them trading away are Swihart, Devers and maybe some sort of combination from Kopech, Travis, Holt or Hernandez, Owens, Johnson, TBall or other. I'd like to see what we could get for a package like this. Note: I am not saying trade this package for the best we can get. I'm not for handing these guys away. I am not undervaluing them, just because I am suggesting we offer them in trade. I think we need a top of rotation starter not a 4/5 type starter, and I am realistic enough to know it's going to hurt getting one. I'm also not against getting a solid #2 type and a 4/5 slot starter, and I think this is the first time, I've ever been on board with trading to upgrade the 5 slot, however, the only way I want us to get a 5 slot starter, is if we also get a number 2. Just getting a #5 or a #5 and 5 will not be enough, IMO, and will risk losing more decent prospects for a dream of a prayer.

I'm not sure how much of a rule 5 squeeze we'll have next winter. We lose Papi, Uehara, Tazawa, Hill and Ziegler and have options on Buch and Hanigan. We may add 2 SP'ers and 2 RP'ers and maybe a bat, so that still leaves 2-3 slots without having to DFA anyone. We also have quite a few guys I wouldn't mind DFA'ing, so I just don't see a roster number crunch. Here are this winter's rule 5 players: Jose Almonte, L. Alexander Basabe, Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Allen Craig, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Angelo LeClerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Brandon Magee, Kyle Martin, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Robby Scott, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte, Luis Ysla

Good point!

FIP and xFIP has its use, but I don't like relying on that too much. It devalues pitchers who don't get a lot of K's. Prime example: it's got Price as doing better than Wright this year! FIP Price 3.42 Wright 3.63 xFIP Price 3.16 Wright 4.42 ERA- Wright 60 Price 96 Too me, ERA- is more accurate.

Yes, sorry, I mixed up the "legendary seasons/half seasons". I should have said 2010's full season and 2013's half season, but 2015 was ranked pretty high as well. Here's a look at the best ERA- seasons or half seasons from 2001-2015. 2240 samples of pitchers with 80+ IP: 1) 25 Medlen 2012 2) 42 Buchholz 2013 (1/2 season) 18) 54 Buchholz 2010 (full season) 277) 77 Buchholz 2015 (1/2 season) 421) 82 Buchholz 2011 (1/2 season) He had 2 legendary seasons/half seasons (2013 & 2010), but his 2015 ERA- placed him in the top 12% of all 80+ IP seasons since 2001. That's much better than Price's 2016. Buch's 2011 season places in the top 19%. In short, in the 6 seasons leading up to 2016, Buchh ad 4 seasons with an ERA- that placed in the top 19% of all 80+ IP seasons by MLB starting pitchers (2240 samples). Clearly, there in lied the hope.

Young will play vs RHPs, and Holt will "spell him" vs LHPs. If these two are healthy, I totally agree that Benintendi should stay in the minors. If we end up having to play Brentz often, then my opinion changes towards wanting to give Benintendi an earlier look.

Maybe it was all a smoke screen, but I heard JF say that Buch still has "his stuff", but he's just not placing it in the right places. I know it's hard to look beyond the harm that pitching just a half season does to a team, even if that half season was great, but since 2009, Buch has only pitched poorly in two seasons: 2014 and 2016. That's two out of seven, but it's also 2 out of 3. I'm past the point of holding out any hope he turns things around, but our staff is so shallow at this point that I guess we're going to see him get a few more chances to show he can improve. As far as I know, Buch has never had a season where he started our good and went bad or started out bad and went good. He's either bad all year, good all year or good for half a year then gets hurt. Strange trend.

True. The thing that makes Buch unique is that he had 2 tremendous half seasons (2013 & 2015), which together are still not a large sample size, but when you add his very nice full season in 2010 and half season of 2011, one always had aense that he was or could be much better than just "slightly above average". It's his wild inconsistency that kills me. I've been one of Buch's biggest defenders over the years based on his flashes of brilliance. I thought taking the option last year was a "no-brainer", but I suggested we trade him in hopes of moving towards more dependability and stability with out rotation. Buch had a decent 2009 half season, and from 2010 to 2015, this is what Buch gave us (6 seasons): 1 great full season (2010) 1 okay season (2012) 1 bad season (2014) 2 legendary half seasons (2013 & 2015) 1 very good half season (2011)

IMO, Brentz is a horrible fielder, and his hitting is a flash. I'd rather have Benintendi than Brentz, but if he's not ready, we're stuck with Brentz. I get that. I'm hoping Young gets back soon.

...or his 2013 half season, his 2011 half season and his 2010 full season. Even his 2012 full season and 2009 half season would be better than this year or his 2014 season. Buch has played in 10 seasons, including his 2007 season of 23 IP. He's really only had 3 awful seasons/half seasons (2008, 2014 & 2016). He's had 2 so-so seasons/half seasons (2009 & 2012), and he's had 5 very good to fantastic seasons/half seasons and his 23 IP first season. If you throw out 2007, he's had 3 awful, 2 okay, 2 very good & 2 great seasons/half seasons. .

Because I don't see Brentz as the LF answer. I'm not sure when Young or Holt are due back, so if they are just days away, then I agree, there's no urgent need. Young was doing a very good job before he got hurt.

Can you imagine a MLB lineup of Betts (RF), Bogaerts (SS), Bradley (CF), Benintendi (LF), and Moncada (we'll say 3B), plus whoever (2) out of Vazquez/Swihart/Leon at catcher. Filled in by veterans like Pedroia, Hanley, Hill ... for 2017? Does anyone share in my excitement of this possibility? I'm super excited, but I'm in no great hurry to see it happen. It's great they both should be ready by the time Papi retires. I have advocated a "sooner rather than later" approach to finding a new position for Moncada, but I trust Sox management to know when the time is right. I'm super excited about next year's possibilities: 1) Benintendi LF 2) Bogaerts SS 3) Betts RF 4) Bradley CF 5) Pedroia 2B 6) Moncada 3B/DH 7) Ramirez 1B/DH 8) Shaw 3B/DH or Travis 1B 9) Vazquez/Swihart/Leon/Hanigan C Bench: Young, Holt, Hernandez & a catcher from above. I'm very much worried about our pitching staff: SP1) Price SP2) ________ SP3) Porcello SP4) Wright SP5) ERod/ Kelly/ Elias/ O'Sullivan/ Owens/ Johnson or FA Closer) Kimbrel RP2) Ziegler RP3) C Smith RP4) _______ RP5) Barnes RP6) Hembree RP7) Ross/ Layne/ FA/ SP'er/ Workman/ N Ramirez/ Light/ Martin

True, but DD said he's "very close" and he doesn't thinks "skipping AAA" is a big deal, so I do not think the calling up Benintendi talk is out of line. I agree though, when Sox manangement thinks he's ready, that's when he SHOULD be called up. Sometimes "need" plays a part in the decision, and I think that's what the debate is really centered on. How much should need play a role in the final decision? Some here seem to think zero, some are more towards the other end of the spectrum, but ultimately, it's DD's choice, and we don't really know what advice he's being given, if there's disagreement among his group, or how much "need" will be a factor, if any.

DD says he thinks Benintendi is "very close" to being ML ready, so I think they know more than us. If he's very close (like just days away) or ready, then he'll be called up. Clearly we have a need in LF, despite our great offense thus far.

I'm not sure if it's a "head issue", but clearly something is wrong. He's supposedly healthy this year, and JF said the other day, that he looks like he has the same stuff as ever, but he's just not placing the ball where it belongs.

Yes, and that's why I was sure to mention they were "half seasons". Look, all I did was try to correct the position that Buch has bad full seasons and "good half seasons". It's really more like ... Buch has almost all bad full seasons or almost all fantastic half seasons. Yes, he's erratic as hell, and that makes it hard to plan out a rotation. Years ago (after his good full season), I caught a lot of flack for saying we should count on Buch as our 5th starter- not our 2 or 3. Now, I don't even want him as our 5th starter anymore.

They were more than "good" half seasons, so there was some gloss. I'm not denying the were just half seasons, and I stated they were half seasons. Also, Buch did have one good full season, but that was so long ago, I can understand not counting it.

True, but imagine us without Betts, Bogey and more...

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