moonslav59

Take a look at the team that swept us last year. Their pen was 10 deep.

4 options at 3B is not playing for the parent team right now.....pretty amazing. And look at our relievers. I'd say to be up 3 games is pretty fortunate. Sale and Kimbrel have been lights out. I had low expectations for the pen I listed that included Smith Thornburg and Ross. Maybe the pendulum will swing back as some of these guys come back to earth. We may need a pen arm at the deadline. 3B has been shockingly bad, and this "shock" comes despite having low expectations at 3B to start with. It is badder than bad. Something must and will be done to address that issue. I think we stand pat with SP'ing despite losing Wright for the season and only being 6 deep to begin with. We will not get the "big bat" many here felt we needed to have a significant chance at a 2017 ring. Just my opinions.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sox management gives Pablo a 3 week period to win back the job before pulling the trigger(s). I'm not sure I'd say that DD expects Pablo to succeed.

Whilke I do value a starting pitching rotation slot more than 3B, our 3B position, in relation to the rest of the league, is way worse than our 5th starter was last year when we acquired Pom. I'm afraid DD might think we need to go large at 3B to get us a ring this year. Trading Espi for a 4/5 slot starter is evidence of just how far he will go.

We have now jumped to 11th in runs scored...just 4 runs behind the top 10 tier. We are 7 runs from being top 8. I had given up hope on ending the season being top 3, 4 or 5, but noe, even that seems within reach. We are 33 runs from 5th place and 40 runs from 4th place. It might be too hard to ctahc the Yanks for 3rd (53 runs behind), but I'll take top 5 or 6. We are 5th in OBP just .007 from first and very close to being 3rd. OBP used to be the major factor in scoring runs, but now that the HR is back, we have noticed other teams scoring more than us. We rank 16th in SLG...just .011 from 10th place despite being 26th in HRs 50 away from the league leading Astros. It will be hard for us to reach the top 15 in HRs, but I'm not sure we need to get there to win it all. We are 19 HRs fro #15. .

I hope not, but with DD at the helm, one never knows...

I've been kind of drinking the Kool-Aid with our pen's success this year, but I think you are right. While Kelly is not Andrew Miller, he might be good enough to bridge us to Kimbrel, but my fear is more with the 6th and 7th innings, especially when you have Pom rarely going past 5 or 6 innings. Great RP'er are costly nowadays, however, and I'm not sure we can afford one. Your point is well taken about the "closing window" and the idea that we can't afford NOT to go for it now.

I think DD may make a major splash. He might trade north of the border and nab Donaldson with Devers as the headline. He could go to Oakland and get Lowrie. He has to get SOMEONE. He also needs to get a reliable reliever. That shouldn't cost Devers, but someone who can help Kelly lock down 7 and 8. At least Donaldson is under team control through 2018 and might agree to extend or re-sign. Keeping Donaldson beyond 2018 would almost certainly mean saying good bye to some other top player, so I'm not seeing a benefit beyond 2018. A two year window is better than one, but I'm a believer in Devers. I think he can contribute a lot in 2018 and maybe even later this year, but then we have a cheap fix for 3B for 5+ years not 1.3 years. I hated the Espi-Pom trade, but at least Pom had several years of team control. I'm hoping we can get an average 3Bman without losing a top 3 prospect or several 4-10 prospects.

Upside potential is a fascinating aspect of being a fan.

Look how the Yankess "rebuilt". We barely noticed the window of futility. They never parted with all their young players and prospects. They were able to keep all the vets they wanted, perhaps to a fault, yet they still had a fire sale and became competitive again very quickly. We had a fire sale, too not long ago. We suffered through 3 last place finishes if 4 years, but still managed to win in 2013. One could argue we never had a true rebuild period. I'm not doubting the "window". I'm still a firm believer that there will be a cliff after 2019 or 2020, unless Henry decides to go significantly over the luxury tax limit- something he has never done so far. That being said, I'm still not for totally abandoning any hope for winning from 2020 to 2024 or 2025 by trading away Devers, Groome and/or Travis for more "here and now" players, especially for a 2 month rental or two. I think we can do what needs to be done to significantly improve our chances this year, reset the luxury tax, so we can go over the limit over the next few years while keeping Devers, Groome and probably Travis. We'll need Devers next year. He's part of the "win now window". Travis could be as well. Groome may be farther away, but Pom and Porcello's impending free agency arrives before the window's last season, so he may be needed to fill one of their slots. Juyst about every available penny will be needed to cover arb and option raises and keeping Kimbrel or his likeness. If we try to keep Kimbrel and Pom or the like, we will be near the maximum penalty sooner than some think. Chances are we may need to fill in an unforeseen hole here and there, so keeping 3 top prospects at a low cost is essential to winning in the window and beyond.

Here are the top contracts of all time. How many seem "reasonable"? How many GMs would do it over again in hindsight? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/ Look closely at deals that are finished or almost finished... (Note: some of these contracts might not be FA signings. I think I mis remembered some that were actually pre-FA signings by current teams. Also, factor in inflation for these earlier deals.) 1999: Mike Piazza $13M x 7 Albert Belle $13M x 5 2001: ARod $25.2M x 10 Manny $20M x 8 (even this great deal ended badly) Mike Hampton $15.1M x 8 - set the standard for horrible C Delgado $17M x 4 (yuk) 2002: Ja Giambi $17.1M x 7 Ja Kendall $10m x 6 2003 J Thome $14.2M x 6 T Helton $15.7M x 9 (not a FA but stunk) b Abreu $12.8M x 5 2004: I Rod $10M x 4 M tejada $12m x 6 (OUCH!) V Guerrero $14m x 5 2005: C Beltran $17m x 7 magglio O $15M x 5 C Delgado $13M x 4 (yuk) 2006 J Damon $13M x 4 D Lee $13M x 4 (YUK) H matsui $13M x 4 P Konerko $12M x 5 2007: J Werth $18M x 8 (kinda yuk) B Zito $18M x 7 (set a new standard for yuk) A Soriano $17M x 8 (yuk) Ja Schmidt $15.7M x 3 (another God-awful signing) A Ramirez $15M x 5 (nope) R Oswalt $14.6m x 5 JD Drew $14M x 5 (you decide) C Utley $12.1M x 7 (yuk) J Lugo $9M x 4 2008: ARod $27.5M x 10- Meh J Santana $22.9M x 6- Horrible C Zambrano $18.3M x 5 - Horrible T Hunter $18M x 5 V Wells $18m x 7 (Unreal bad) G Sheffield $14m x 2 J Morneau $13.3M x 6 (yuk) Fukudome $12M x 4 (nope) Jose BGuillen $12M x 3 (nope) Joe Nathan $11.8M x 4 (RP'er) F Cordero $11.5M x 4 (RP'er) J Dye $11M x 2 2009: Sabathia $23M x 7 Manny $22.5M x 2 (yuk) M Teixeira $22.5M x 8 (mostly yuk) AJ Burnett $16.5M x 5 De Lowe $15M x 4 (did pretty well in LA) T Hafner $14.3M x 4 (Nope) M Young $16M x 5 (Yuk) 2010: J peavy $17.3M x 3 M Holliday $17.1M x 7 Lackey $16.5M x 5 jason bay $16.5m x 4 (OMG Bad) 2011: Cliff Lee $24M x 5 Joe Mauer $23M x 8 (yuk) C Crawford $20.3M x 7 (super yuk) R Halladay $20M x 3 J Beckett $17M x 4 (not as a FA)' A Beltre $16M x 5 (not very good these years) Tulo $15.8M x 10 (OUCH!) Papelbon $12.5M x 4 R Soriano $11.7M x 3 (yuk) L Berkman $14.2M x 6 A Dunn $14M x 5 (yuk) D Uggla $12.4m x 7 (UGLY) CarGo $11.4M x 7 2012: R Howard $25M x 5 (putrid) Sabathia $24.4M x 5 (mostly yuk) Pujols $24M x 10 (double yuk) P Fielder $23.8M x 9 (Yukker) A Gon $22M x 7 (meh) M Cain $21.7M x 6 (yikes) M Kemp $20M x 8 (yuk) J reyes $17.7M x 6 (yuk) Je Weaver $17m x 5 CJ Wilson $15.5M x 5 (yuk) Buehrle $14.5M x 4 B Phillips $12.1M x 6 2013: Verlander $25.7M x 7 (hurts now) J Hamilton $25M x 5 (horrible) Felix H $25M x 7 Greinke $24.5M x 6 C Hamels $24M x 6 D Wright $17.3M x 8 (injuries=yuk) A Sanchez $16M x 5 (yuk) BJ Upton $15M x 5 (YUKERDOO!) I Kinsler $15M x 5 N swisher $14M x 4 (YUK!) M Montero $12M x 5 (just DFA'd) M Bourn $12m x 4 (YUK) 2014: R Cano $24M x 10 Tanaka $22.1M x 7 (Injuries) Ellsbury $21.8M x 7 (yuk) Choo $18.5M x 7 (yuk) H pence $18M x 5 (injuries) B McCann $17M x 5 R Zimmerman $16.7M x 6 Pedey $13.8M x 8 A Hill $11.7M x 3 Too early to judge in their entirety 2015: Scherzer $30m x 8 Lester $25.8M x 6 Stanton $25M x 13 HRam $22M x 4 Pablo $19M x 5 (We all know about this one) VMart $17M x 4 (injuries but did well) C headley $13M x 4 (nope) D Robertson $11.5M x 4 (RP'er) 2016: Greinke $34.4M x 6 Miggy $31M x 8 Price $31M x 7 Cespedes $25M x 3 Heywood $23M x 8 C Davis $23M x 7 J Upton $22.1M x 6 Zimmerman $22M x 5 Cueto $21.7M x 6 R Braun $21M x 5 Kazmir $16M x 3 2017: Cespedes $27.5M x 4 Strasburg $25M x 7

So, the Pujols signing was worth it, because the market said it was. I get it now.

But somehow, if we were able to get out of having to offer that, we can only lose and "never" win.

Even if we get 0.0 or 0.2 WAR from Marrero through the end of the season and in the playoffs, we'd still rank 26th or 27th in MLB 3B team WAR. That's still not close to average. Can we possibly win with one weak link so far below average? Maybe. Win a championship? Probably not to maybe. Upgrading a severe weak link like 3B from 26th or 27th to about 15th is a big enough improvement to increase our chances of winning significantly. I'm not for overpaying for the upgrade, so when actual offers are presented, I would, for example, think keeping Marrero and Lin is a better option than trading Travis for Frazier. We'll see.

FA market does not equal true value (to me and many others anyway). I get the argument that you are worth what someone pays you, but history shows big FA signings do not, for the most part, bring back the value expected. I think we've beaten this issue to death several times over. Let's agree to disagree and move on. Chances are Price never comes close to opting out, so we're wasting out time discussing a moot point.

Kimmi, I know we both agree on a lot of things and think we went too far trading away too much of the farm over DD's reign, but would you be terribly upset, if we traded Ockimey and someone like Callahan or another rule 5 candidate for Frazier or Lowrie? I don't see it as hurting our future enough to outweigh improving our 3B position from belwo or at replacement level to average 3b production and defense. I hate trading for rentals, but trades like the Ziegler trade last year are worth it, to me.

We had a good chance at winning it all last year, and DD kept it somewhat minor after he traded for Pom before the deadline. He traded scraps for Ziegler, A Hill and Abad. Was the hole in the rotation that necessitated the Pom trade as big as the hole we have at 3B right now in DD's eyes? Maybe. Maybe he will trade the equivalent of Espi (Groome, Devers or Travis) for a better 3Bman than I think we need, and I'll probably complain, if he does, but I'm holding out hope we can win in the next 3 years and still keep our big 3 prospects.

If you think he will keep this up, I have some ocean front property for sale in Arizona... BTW, fangraphs has him at 0.0 before today's big game.

No 34 year old pitcher is worth $31M for 4 years, even if some clown GM offers him more.

...By the time FA comes about, Sale could be worth $30 mil plus, Bogey $25-$30 mil plus, JBJ $20 mil plus, and Betts $30 mil plus. When you add in Price at $31 mil and Pedey still on the books, you are looking at $160 mil tied up in 6 guys, with two of them being past their primes. Long story short is you are going to lose some of this talent and with your farm being traded down and your draft pools shrinking as your team plays well, there is a strong chance for another rebuild. You just need to hope you can snag a title or two in the meantime. Let's assume Price stays, as he almost certainly will. he should still be a decent pitcher from ages 34-37. Maybe not worth $31M but perhaps $25M year 4 to $10-15M year 7. It's not a total loss like Pablo is right now. Let's say we can get one of JBJ, Betts or Bogey (or even Sale) to extend before free agency. We give them security and maybe a little more up front money at the expense of a little off the back end. They end up making the same money as they would by waiting for free agency, but we benefit by slightly lowering the luxury tax cost by including arb year levels in the total contract. This might be easier said than done, so let's assume we can't get anyone to bite. Assume we lose Pablo after 2019 and HRam after 2018 or 2019. We don't replace Porcello (after 2019), but maybe we keep Pom at a reasonable cost. (luxury tax dollars) $31M Price 5 more years after this (through 2022) $14M Pedey 4 more years (through 2021) I guess we could trade Pedey at some point, but I'm assuming we have $45M tied up for these two for a long time. That leaves... Pomeranz (payday 2019) Kimbrel (payday 2019) Sale (payday 2020) Bogey (payday 2020) Porcello (payday 2020) Bradley (payday 2021) Betts (payday 2021) The overlap of Pedey and Betts/JBJ is only one year. maybe we bite the bullet taht year and take a mega penalty on the luxury tax and the $20M or over extreme penalty. Maybe not. Estimate paydays: 2019: (3+ year deals) $18M Kinbrell $16M Pomeranz (assuming he does well and earns this) 2020: $33M Sale $27M Bogey (Let Porcello go) 2021: $33M Betts $23M JBJ That's $195M for 8 players. The luxury tax goes up and we can go over by $19M. that still leave some money for fill-in players and productive, promoted prospects. It's doubtful we keep all 8, so let's say we trade or lose Bogey or Pedey, or we let Kimbrel or Pom walk. Maybe we'd get it down to $180M or so for 7. Maybe that's not doable either and we have to let another go, so we're at about $160M/6 players. We'd still have a nice core to stay out of last place, and maybe these international signings can be ready by 2022 or 2023. It's going to be very very hard, and that's why I'm a "cliff dweller", but I don't see us being so desperate and so projected to be "out of it" from 2020 or 2021 to 2023 or 2024 that we want to trade Devers or Groome for a slightly better chance at a ring this year.

I've said over an over that I seriously doubt he opts out, but if he does, it is possible for Price to get what he wants (more money or more years) elsewhere, and for us to benefit by him leaving. I could care less if some other GM values him at $40M, if he leaves us at age 34 and we save $31M, we gain not lose, or at least could gain.

True, but if a player is playing SS at a decent defensive level on the farm, his value is higher than a 2Bman or 3Bman. Teams in need of a 2Bman will often look for a SS on the farm to convert to 2B (or 3B or OF). You make a good point though. Nobody fools anyone much anymore.

slav, you are going to have a VERY expensive team, especially with guys who are starting to see real money. Mookie Betts is comfortable playing on 1 year deals until he hits FA. Bogaerts is entirely comfortable playing on 1 yr deals as well Bradley already made $3.6mil and with him doing well this yr, he is in line for a really nice payday this December as well. Sale's options end after 2019. By the time FA comes about, Sale could be worth $30 mil plus, Bogey $25-$30 mil plus, JBJ $20 mil plus, and Betts $30 mil plus. When you add in Price at $31 mil and Pedey still on the books, you are looking at $160 mil tied up in 6 guys, with two of them being past their primes. Long story short is you are going to lose some of this talent and with your farm being traded down and your draft pools shrinking as your team plays well, there is a strong chance for another rebuild. You just need to hope you can snag a title or two in the meantime That's the main reason I'd love for Price to opt out. I doubt it happens, but if it does, it would be good for us for at least two reasons. 1) It will mean he pitched very well for us from now to the end of 2018. 2) It will mean we can keep at least one more of the guys you listed as having pending mega deals. One in his prime- not past it. Losing Porcello, HRam and panda will help us keep another one or two, assuming we can repalce them with in house cheap solutaions like Devers, Travis and Groome. If we reset the luxury tax this year, we can afford to go $19M over for a few years without losing draft picks or slot money through penalties. $19M might be close to enough to keep JBJ. Plus, the luxury tax limit goes up a little every year. BTW, we are currently under the luxury limit despite paying 7 guys close to $140M. 3 of them are not doing all that well (Pablo, HRam and Porcello), so $160M tied up in 6 productive players could be doable considering the above changing factors I listed. I'm not saying we can keep all 6. I am a "cliff dweller". I do think we can stay competitive beyond the 3-4 year window, if Price opts out, or we get exceptional play out of Devers, Travis, Groome and maybe Pom replaces Porcello well enough as our number 2 or 3 starter going forward (at less than Porcello cost).

Not really, there is the trade market and the farm market, but we are talking what determines value. just because some other team offers Price $33M a year, does not mean we lost out by not keeping him at $31M. That's my point, and I think it is valid. I respect those who feel value is determined by the highest bidder, but losing Price to his opt out can be a win-win for us and the team that gets him, assuming he earnes $33M- which is highly unlikely based on past big FA signings. The vast majority don't come close to earning their salaries, so I'm not sure why you trust big spending GMs who have long histories of failing with these type signings to "set the true value" (towards helping a team win) of a player, but to each his own.

I do consider slumps and hot streaks and most recent numbers to some extent, but not as much as you do. While Bogey has been struggling, his OBP is still .340 over the last 14 days. With a day of rest today, I expect him to continue being a top 3 OBP player on our team. bat him 1st or second. If he continues to slump, then move him down and maybe put Beni, Young or even HRam or JBJ up 2nd.