moonslav59

Oh, I'm not denying that. But DD did have a fire sale with the Marlins after winning a WS ('97) and much of what he acquired helped them win another WS ('03) a few years later ( even though he wasn't technically with the team when they won that 2nd one). They also got some great draft picks by sucking after 1997 and before 2003. Josh Beckett was the second pick of the 1999 draft. Without him, they don't win in 2003. We might have to reset in 4-8 years.Something, some fans seem to think can't happen, because our farm will be replenished. It's hard to replenish without some high draft picks here and there. We won't be getting any in the next 3-4 years. Plus, it takes time for the picks to develop. Again, I'm happy with the trades. I'm happy overall, but I'm not going to sugar-coat our extended outlook to justify why the trades were good.

Yes. You are right. I stand corrected. Reddick never bit anyone in the ass.

At this point, is the top of the rotation upside still there? He has yet to put in a consistent run of good performances. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx...de=&season=all Erod only has 41 MLB starts spread over two seasons, so not having an extended time of TOR performance is not a big deal. 1) Maybe some of his poor performances were due to "tipping his pitches", which is something that should never happen again and is not skills related. 2) He has nasty stuff. I've never read otherwise from any scout or skill-rating service. 3) He has had some min stretches of brilliance at the ML level: 2nd half 2016: (14 starts) 3.24 ERA / 1.133 WHIP In 2015, he started 21 games. He let up 0-2 runs in 15 of them. He let up 3 runs in 2 others. That's 17 out of 21 games with 0-3 ERs allowed. He got shelled in the other 4, including 9 ERs in 4.1 IP, 8 in 5.0, 7 in 1.2 and 6 in 3.2 IP. Take away just those 4 games (30 ER in 14.2 IP), and ERod had 22 ERs in 107 IP in those other 17 starts for a 1.85 ERA. That's his rookie season at age 22!!! I know all pitchers would look much better on paper, if you took away their worst 20% starts, but ERod has shown greatness in his MLB short sample size, even if some has been scattered around.

I don't think they anticipated having Sale when they gave Buch his option either, but I agree, the odds are less than 50-50 Buch is traded by opening day. They might be even odds by 8/2/17.

Sounds like you're an expert on spreading s***.

I'm not sure if out of all the times they made it, those odds are actually lower than random. Therefore, they may not be "selling points" in DD's favor.

True, but the point was did the player traded away create more value after the trade than what we got in return. I see other examples: Melancon for Hanrahan & Holt Lowrie & Weiland for Melancon (if you just count his time here) HanRam and Anibal Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell (if you just count the control years of the original trade, and maybe even if you don't) Stephen Fife for Mirabelli Iggy and Montas for Peavy (who netted us Hembree & Escobar) Lackey for Kelly & Craig Cespedes and A Wilson for Porcello (if you only count the year of control we got from Rick)

Look at Detroit's farm system last year and this year. That's part of what DDism creates.

ERod is a keeper in my book. If Pom could fetch an Espi, trade him (or Buch), if we must trade someone.

I believe, he secretly thinks Buch will way outperform "Steamer's WAR projections", but he doesn't want to debunk his faith in those projections as his major measuring stick of player value over the years. Am I right, hill?

I get your point and don't disagree, but remember, O'Sullivan was our 10th guy on the opening day depth chart for SP'ers, and we ended up starting him 4 times in early May! Later, we had to trade "the next Pedro" for Pom Pom to come up with 5 decent starters. Granted, Buch was healthy when we "had to" trade for Pom, so that's a point in your corner, but waiting until things settle has it's merits, too.

Our pitching staff is set for the next 3 years with 3 CY type pitchers! Thats pretty badass. Now, when we start to shed payroll over the next three years with guys like Hanley, Buch, Panda, etc..we will then sign our young nucleus. Kimbrel has 2 years left, so the best chance window is really just 2 years not 3. We lose $25.5M off the budget next winter (Buch, Young & Moreland) and some more the following winter, so maybe replacing Kimbrel with an acquisition is possible. Devers > Pablo Travis> Moreland Swihart > Young Owens/Johnson> Buchholz and eventually, Hernandez> Holt Groome > Pom

Great post. Much shorter and direct than I could have put it. The new rules have changed the talent acquisition equation.

Winning the AL Central is like finishing 2nd or 3rd in the AL East. I repeat- whoop-dee-freakin-doo. I'll take the rings, even if it means a few last place finishes in the strongest division in the history of the world. I hope to hell DD doesn't go as long as Bobby C and win just one ring, but if he does, it better be with us in the next 3 years, or you're going to have to create a new ID.

I think the ability to use HanRam at DH quite a bit, as he has said he doesn't mind doing, is a big enough plus to outweigh the offense gained by Smith over Moreland. Whatever else we may get back from trading Buch or out of Buch by not trading him would be the gravy on this comp.

It will have to be to a contender, so I'm not sure how we get ML ready SP'ing back. Maybe a three team deal: Buch and one or two of our our-of-options RP'ers (Abad, Elias & Hembree) for prospects. Then, ship the prospects to a non-contender for a more reliable, cost-effective, veteran SP'er (perferably one with an option remaining).

I can see the wisdom in keeping Buch too. 1) We almost always use over 30 starts from our 6th starter down. 2) We can wait to the deadline to trade him and still get under the luxury limit. 3) He's shown he can pitch like the very best MLB has seen in the last 45 years. 4) It's his contract year.

Not "giving him away". Reasons: 1) get a reliable RP'er that is paid little. 2) or get a decent prospect to replace the 20 we've lost in the last 13 months. 3) clear luxury tax space, so we can have the flex to fill a gap later 4) reset the luxury tax from 50% to 20%, so we can go nutty during next winter's much better FA market.

I meant 8/1/17. The trade deadline.

Whoop-dee-freakin-doo! The AL central has been about as strong as AAA baseball during DD's years there. Just win me rings, baby!

I guess Ben has always been high on Josh. Maybe some of that rubbed off on DD.

I just saw that! He'll have to stay on the 25 man roster, so there goes Hernandez back to AAA.

I saw that. I'm glad we got 3 years of Thornburg at less cost.

How about by 8/1/16? And what odds will you give?

Red Sox lose Justin Haley and Aneury Tavarez to the rule 5 draft and take back Josh Rutledge from the Rockies. Josh could just be insurance against Pablo at 3B, and/or he could beat out Hernandez for the utility slot on the 25 man roster. That would force Holt to be the primary back-up at SS.