moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Thanks. It sounds like he knows a heck of a lot about it than I do. I've just have seen so many different articles that were clearly wrong that I always doubt what I read. Thanks again for the info. Using his numbers, if we can eliminate the in season acquisitions and not have to pay too many minor leaguers Major League pay during the year, then maybe we can squeak under the limit without dumping anyone. I'm thinking that if we trade Abad, we can stay under, and if we need someone later, maybe we can trade Buch and his half season salary to stay under over the whole season.
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If nobody will give much for Buch, he'll be great out of our pen...probably much better than Abad, who will likely be traded or cut, if Buch stays on the 25 man roster. Cutting Abad's projected $2M will keep us under the limit- just barely.
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BTW, Buch has the highest WAR of any Sox pitcher from 2013-2016. Fangraphs has his value at $62.5M in the last 4 years. That's more than he's been paid.
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Then why do you keep proposing so many trades to get him to Seattle. You know why. I know you know, but the steamer projections and WAR numbers just don't show it.
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I agree that his value is limited. If it weren't for those horrendous stretches he's be making David Price money.... and deserving it. Speaking of Price, he had a horrendous stretch too, so there's no sure bets anyways. Certainly Buch has a higher than wanted probability of injury or poor performance, but his upside is proven and not just a promise or dream. It's the "proven" ceiling that raises his value. (Note: price had an ERA over 5 after 11 games this season. We paid $31M for that!)
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I've never doubted his floor is not only very low, but it is more probable than most quality pitchers. A one year contract is going to be worth the risk to some GM not encumbered by the luxury tax and in great need of something...ANYTHING! There just isn't enough quality pitching available these days. The prices GMs are paying these days are the evidence. Big risk- no doubt. High upside- already proven 2-3 times in his career. Something not many pitchers have proven.
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I don't think we really wanted Lester. We bid on him to save face. When you look back, outbidding the Cubs would look like a financially good deal right now, in light of what Price and others got the following year.
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Actually, DD has said he's under no pressure to stay under the limit, but I'm sure it is a priority, especially, if we are really close and we want to do some wheeling and dealing in next year's excellent FA market.
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I don't see anyone refusing a trade out of some feeling they can do better, because they can hold it over DD's head that Henry might have to pay $1M in luxury tax because we're going over by $2M keeping Buch.
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True, maybe I took your like the Yankees comment too literally. We could trade Betts then re-sign him- like the Yanks did with Chapman, and like we should have done with Miller.
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We can probably cut Abad, who is out of options anyways and be close to under the limit. We don't have to trade Buch to get under. There's no GM holding that over our heads, at least any where near what the other GM needs (SP'ing). Besides, we could trade Buch in August and get under the limit.
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Maybe, or Valbuena. I doubt we sign anybody now. If we need to, we can trade for a 3Bman mid season.
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He's probably too costly anyways at this point- both in terms of money and prospects needed to get him. I'm not sure about the coming up small part. He only has 11 playoff PAs, and his Late & Close OPS is nearly identical to his career OPS (.779 to .780). He's been at .849 High Leverage but .752 with men on base over his career. Nothing too telling either way.
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I'd go with this: Lineup vs RHPs: 1. Beni LF 2. Pedey 2B 3. Betts RF 4. Ramirez DH 5. Moreland 1B 6. Bradley CF 7. Bogaerts SS 8. Sandoval 3B 9. Leon C Lineup vs LHPs: 1. Pedroia 2B 2. Bogaerts SS 3. Betts RF 4. Ramirez 1B 5. Young DH 6. Benintendi LF 7. Bradley CF 8. Rutledge/Holt 3B 9. Vazquez C
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I forgot Pomeranz, and mistakenly had Buch as a lefty. There may not be any room for Abad due to his lack of options remaining.
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Yes. My bad.
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I agree, and I meant the Colon reference to temper anyone's views that Buch is going to land us a Kopech or even a Basabe or something. My belief, and I could be wrong, is that as the winter wears on, and all available SP'ers are gone, some GM is going to think they are a solid SP'er away from seriously contending. They will know that Buch is no sure thing. They will know he could suck, but they will also know there's a pretty significant chance he can put togther a very good contract season. For that, they will overpay, but again, I'm not expecting to get back a Kopech or Soler or maybe even a Basabe type prospect.
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We had a shortage of prospects from about 2009 to 2011. We had built it up by 2012, but none were ML ready. Don't expect another 2011 draft either. We had 4 first round picks and got Betts in the 5th round. How did we do in 2012 anyways? Coincidence? How many rings did we win in that period?
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You mean when we start to suck, like the Yanks started to, we can have a fire sale too?
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We may have an options crunch by opening day: Closer: Kimbrel RP2: Thornburg RP3: Kelly (later: Smith) RP4: Buchholz PR5: Pomeranz L RP6: Ross L RP7: Barnes RP8: (all out of options) Abad, Hembree, Elias We'll probably go with 7 RP'ers, so unless someone gets hurt, we may have to get creative or lose all 3. I like Hembree the best of the three, and since Thornburg is much better with lefties, maybe we won't need a LOOGY as much. Besides, we have lefties Buch & Ross in the pen as well. We also have some minor league bullpen depth: Scott, Martin, Workman, N Ramirez, Ysla and maybe Owens or Johnson.
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Couldn't agree more, and I still think Uehara has "bat-missing stuff". I'd loved to have had him as our 3rd guy, but I think between Kelly and Buch, we'll be okay, until Smith is back and settled in.
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Team control ends after.... (Luxury tax cost) 2017: Buch ($13.5M), Young $6.5M & Moreland $5.5M 2018: Kimbrel ($10.5M), Pomeranz (~$4.7M), Kelly (`$2.6M) & Ross (`$1.8M) --HanRam has a vesting $22M option based on 1050 PAs from 16-17 and passing a physical --Price has an opt out ($31M) 2019: Porcello ($20.6M), Ramirez ($22M see above option), Bogey ($???), Thornburg ($???), Holt ($???), Rutledge ($???) & Workman ($???) --Sandoval $17M option with $5M buyout 2020: Sandoval ($17M see above option), Betts, JBJ, Wright, Smith, Vazquez & Leon 2021: Pedey ($13.6M), ERod, Swihart, Barnes, Elias, Hembree
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We shouldn't have to hand him away or pay part of his salary, but I'm not expecting a very good player or prospect. Bartolo Colon got $12.5M and cost no prospects or players. Buch is younger, has more upside and is in a "contract year", but he also has a significant downside or "floor". Maybe we can expect someone like a Victor Diaz and/or Josh Pennington replacement-like prospect in return.
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I actually expect a top 5 finish in the Cy Young for Price.
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Yes, he is a solid pitcher. He could be a big part of our success in the next 2 years. We may end up extending him for further successes.
