moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Maybe not "well below", but he did decline quite a bit.
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Yea, the dreaded double negative, but we are in agreement.
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Sometimes you need to get past the stats when assessing value. Ryan Dempster is an ideal example of that. When it comes to stats, I like to look at game logs to see how often a pitcher kept his team in the game. Compared to his previous 5 seasons, Ryan did not do as well in his year with Boston. I watched every one of his games pitched. He did okay, but not nearly as well as before. I get the clubhouse stuff, but on the field, he declined.
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Yes, but I don't disagree that added IP adds value. The 33 IP were a bif part of the higher WAR, but so was the 4.17 xFIP vs 4.64 his second year. He only started 3 more games in 2007 vs 2008, but he lasted longer in 2007, which does have value.
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I like WAR, but I don't use it as much as ERA- and WHIP for pitchers.
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OK, I misread the age span as showing one less year and missed the "through his 28th birthday" part. Thanks.
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Yes, and I hope that happens with Beni.
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Too much xFIP in WAR. His ERA went from 4.40 to 2.90 from year 1 to year 2. (ERA- from 95 to 64), but your point is well taken. He clearly did worse after his first 2 years, so he should not be included in the "slow adjuster" category.
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His WAR was between 2.5 and 4.7 the previous 5 seasons. It was 0.5 in 2013.
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No, but all struggled in their first year, although Clements was more injury-related than any adjustment period excuse.
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The age difference between Benintendi and Mitch Haniger is also notable in that the Red Sox will control Benintendi for his age 22-27 seasons (through his 28th birthday) while the Mariners control Haniger for his age 26-31 seasons (assuming each spends little or no more time in the minors). 26 to 31 is probably better years than 22-28 but with one less year. Makes you think about the result of calling a player up at such a young age. You lose the "prime".
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Looking at these numbers, I see a few things that may indicate these moves: 1) Young needs to start every game vs LHPs and should be in the top 5 line-up slots. 2) Moreland's numbers vs RHP are actually pretty decent, so the Young-Moreland platoon makes a lot of sense (Young DH vs LHPs and Moreland 1B vs RHPs with HanRam playing 1B vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs and at NL Parks). 3) JBJ should bat higher vs RHPs. 4) Bogey should bat higher vs RHPs. 5) Small sample sizes, but it appears Swihart hits RHPs better than Leon & Vaz, but the opposite is true vs LHPs. (Vaz is way better vs LHPs than RHPs.) I might go with this as my line-up template: vs RHPs: 1 Beni 2 Pedey 3 Betts 4 HanRam 5 JBJ 6 Bogey 7 Pablo 8 Moreland 9 Leon (Swihart) vs LHPs: 1 Pedey 2 Bogey 3 Betts 4 HanRam 5 Young 6 Beni* 7 JBJ 8 Leon/Vaz 9 Rutledge/Pablo *Keeping an eye on Beni's numbers vs LHPs
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2015-2016 combined L-R Splits --145+ PAs unless noted vs RHP .984 Beni (85) .870 Betts .871 JBJ .812 Pedey .782 Moreland (w TX) .762 Bogey .766 HanRam .727 Holt .733 Pablo .727 Swihart .705 Leon .668 Hernandez (47) .665 Young (BOS + NYY) .650 Rutledge (96) .527 Vazquez vs LHP .980 Young (5th best in MLB among 144 players with 250+ PAs vs LHPs) .916 HanRam .883 Bogey .829 Betts .822 Pedey .804 Vazquez (40) .795 Rutledge (45) .759 Leon (117) .748 JBJ .725 Moreland (w TX) .684 Holt .673 Swihart (98) .465 Pablo .429 Beni (33)
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2017 Sox R-L Splits in 2016 by OPS (PA noted, if under 85/under 15 not listed) ---2015 OPS in parenthesis Vs RHP .984 Beni (85) .917 Betts (.813) .902 Bradley (.791) .827 Pedroia (.785) .796 Ramirez (.720) .785 Bogaerts (.735) .766 Young (.585 w Yanks) .764 Leon (.569) .762 Holt (.701) .669 Rutledge (37) (.637) .668 Hernandez (47) .629 Swihart (67) (.757) .527 Vazquez vs LHPs 1.097 Ramirez (.710) 1.062 Leon (81) (.118) .999 Young (83) (.972 w Yanks) .873 Bogey (.892) .859 Rutledge (19) (.748) .814 Betts (.843) .812 Pedey (.834) .804 Vazquez (40) .665 JBJ (.918) .429 Beni (33) .350 Holt (45) (.807)
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soxprospects has an interesting page on future Sox roster projections. (Please note the disclaimer): http://www.soxprospects.com/future.htm They have this for our 2018 roster (assuming no additions to the roster): C Vazquez (No Leon) 1B Ramriez 2B Pedroia 3B Devers SS Bogaerts LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH Sandoval (Depending on how well Pablo plays this year, we may see him at 1B and HR at DH.) Bench- Swihart, Travis, Hernandez, Holt & Castillo They have Wright in the pen.
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Some winter league news from soxprospects.com... Vazquez had another productive week by going 3 for 8 with a triple, a walk, and two RBI. His two-run triple in game two of the finals helped Santurce to a 6-3 victory. Vazquez was the DH in two of his three games this past week, catching the middle contest. Castillo went 3 for 14 with a walk and three runs scored, including a 1-for-7 showing so far in the finals. Abad pitched in just one game this past week and did not allow a run while striking out two in one inning of work. Hanley Ramirez started all six games this past week for Licey but struggled with a 3-for-23 performance. He did, however, launch a solo home run and take three walks. Sandy Leon appeared just once this past week for Aragua, who lost a one-game playoff to advance from the first-round of the playoffs to the semifinals. He was 0 for 3.
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YES! That is what I have clamored for years about: quality vs quantity, but I will add that our quantity is fine down to the 6th slot. I was surprised Bogey seemingly took a step backwards on defense last year. It looked like he had improved a lot from 2014 to 2015. Let's hope 2016 was just a blip on an improvement curve upwards on defense. Pablo's D is almost more of an unknown than his O. We are plus or plus plus everywhere else on defense.
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(I feel more confidence in Price than Porcello this year. I like Sale better than both, but he might need a few months to adjust as well.
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As did Matt Clement, Dice-K, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, John Lackey and Ryan Dempster.
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fangraph's projections have us with the 4th best offense (Cubs, LAD, Hou) and 6th best pitching (LAD, Cubs, Cle, NYM, Wsh). My guess is we'll be a top 10 defense. I think we can absorb one or two problem areas and still make the playoffs.
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We also ended up paying Renteria $30M for 1 year of play--needing to trade him for the same type of situation.
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I remember Barry Bonds saying he wouldn't even talk with Boston when he was a FA.
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We fans do make it difficult for any struggling stars to want to stick around town, but Price started out so poorly last year, I think the perception of a big let down got firmly planted in many fans' brains. He had a 6.00 ERA after 8 starts. Much of that had to do with an 8 ER in 3.2 IP start vs TB, but he also had 3 other starts with 5 or more ERs in that stretch. It took him to game 12 to get under 5.00. He was still over 4.50 on July 28th. Unfortunately, perception is a big part of fans' attitudes. You're right though, I think if we cut these guys a little more slack, maybe more players would want to come to Boston. I won't even get into the argument about whether added pressure from the fans and media actually makes it harder for some players to recover from a slump.
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I agree, but I don't think Devers needs time at AAA to be promoted to Boston late season. Remember, Moncada and Beni didn't even start at AA last year, as Devers will, and both made the jump over AAA to the bigs.
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I disagree with this point made in the article: Furthermore, any need for Swihart in left field was going to be temporary with Andrew Benintendi expecting to debut later that season. At the time of Swihart's move to LF, there was not an expectation of Beni being promoted later in the year, in fact at the deadline, we tried to get Beltran, so we wouldn't have to call up Beni. The guy ends up picking Swihart as the starting catcher after a good breakdown of each catcher's attributes and weaknesses, but I can't see my self going with the weakest defender of the bunch.
