Honestly, Moonslav, our bullpen looks better to me than it did AT THE START of 2016.
At the start of 2016, Carson Smith was not expected to miss the whole season. Tazawa was questionable after a decline in 2015, but he was not bad. Ross had showed consistency and Barnes promise. Layne and Noe Ramirez were no different from Abad and Hembree are now. Plus, there were less questions about Kimbrel last spring than this one.
Feelings at the start of the season....
2016 >=
Kimbrel > Kimbrel
Uehara = Thornburg
Smith > Smith
R Ross
Tazawa > Hembree
Barnes
Layne = Abad
N Ram
(Now, if Pom or Wright are added to the pen, that changes things, but unless we add a Ziegler, like we did last year, I like last year's pen better (on paper) at the start of the year and more so, after we added Ziegler.
Kimbrel is not the world's best closer, but he ought to be more than adequate, and there's something to be said for stability in the closer's role.
Felt better about Kimbrel last March than I do now.
Moreover, going into 2016 we thought our setup man was Tazawa, and actually got lucky that an aging Uehara held that role together as long as he did. Going into it this year we aren't trusting to luck nearly as much, Thornberg is a very solid Plan A, and any of Barnes, Ross, or Smith could step into the role, or at least hold onto it for awhile while we sort through our options in trade. That's a hell of a lot better than a burnt-out Tazawa and a Koji held together with spit and bailing wire. Also other options such as Barnes, Ross, and Hembree, are much better-known quantities this year than they were at this time last year.
Thornburg and Smith both have exactly one very good season under their belts. Smith may take 1-2 months to return. I think you are down playing the expectations we had for Uehara and Taz last year.
Going into the year we have some good power arms to look at for middle and late innings, including any or all of Barnes, Ross, Hembree, and Kelly out the gate, and Smith down the road. That's a damn good place to start assembling a 7 man pen and I'd be willing to bet at least 18 teams in baseball are jealous of our depth of options. And that's of course figuring without whatever the 6th starter does in a bullpen role.
I've said I do NOT think our pen is weak. I just said I think it is our weakest area (next to maybe 3B). I expected 2 solid acquisitions after losing 3 key relievers. We got 1 and hopes for Smith to be 2.
Starting the year this is what we look like:
Kimbrel
Thornburg
Ross
Hembree
Barnes
Kelly
(probably Pomeranz)
If you look at the CV's on these guys, any of the 7 could deliver sub-4 relief in any given year, and many of them are good for sub-3 more often than not. Kelly's a wild card, but Kelly is going to be a work in progress and probably near the bottom of the depth chart in the pen anyway. We HOPE for good things from Kelly, but we are not actually in a situation where we have to DEPEND on good things from Kelly -- which from the standpoint of an experiment like this is exactly where you want to be.
We have a lot of promise, no doubt, but we are short on RP'ers who have done well in something as simple as 2 of the last 3 years in the pen: Kimbrel & Ross are it.
Now that said I fully expect the team to need to add to the pen from time to time. Injuries happen, roles shift around, underperformance is a thing that can affect anyone at any time. But guess what? We can add to the pen without spending assets, because waiting in the wings to finish his recovery from elbow surgery is Carson Smith, and even better, we don't have to throw him right into regular bullpen duty if we feel he isn't ready, because we ought to have 7 options ahead of him in theory, all of which are good enough that even if they struggle at first they're worth working with rather than making a panic move.
I'm not suggesting a "panic move". I haven't even said we should overpay for a FA RP'er right now. I'm fine with waiting to see if we can cobble together 3-4 solid arms out of the 5-7 promising ones.
I'm high on Thornburg, Kelly, Barnes and Hembree, and I'm hoping Ross remains consistent, but I'll take 2016's expectations of Uehara, Ziegler and Taz over these guys.
Are there a few bullpens that are better at the top than ours is? Oh yes. Closer is one of the closest things we have to a weakness in the pen on paper, since Kimbrel had a down year. Is there a bullpen I'd take over Boston's 1-7? Maaaaaaaybe Cleveland, and that's mostly because of Miller. Maybe the Cubs, although not so much post-Chapman. Not too many others
If our bullpen is the closest thing we have to a genuine concern or weakness, this is going to be one hell of a baseball season.
I agree, and I've said this in similar words. Our weakest link is not really "weak".
I look at how 2016's season ended with our pen, and it was all about Kimbrel, Uehara, Ziegler, Taz, Kelly and Ross. Three of these guys are gone, and Kelly's great sample size in September was tiny. Sure, we have plenty of p[promise. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out. We also have Scott and others in the minors that could solve any problem areas, if they arise, so the pen is not a weak are right now, but I'll bet we start looking for the next Ziegler before the deadline.