moonslav59

If Betts, Bogey and JBJ do well, they will get a big payday. Maybe they won't get $30M, but they are not Bautista or Trumbo. I'm hopeful we can dump Pablo's salary after this year, and HanRam and his deals are done at about the right time to have to pay big to keep the stars we want. We may end up losing one, but I think we can keep the ones we need. I'm mostly worried about rebuilding the farm under the new rules. We have Swihart, Groome, Devers and Travis that can help with some low cost for a while, but eventually a weak farm is going to catch up to us. Those who think it's going to be easy to build back up are betting on rolling the dice to snake eyes.

Sox have the 24th pick as the draft order is now set. The Cubs get the 27th and 30th pick due to Fowler signing with the Cards. The Blue Jays get 22 and 28. The Rangers 26 and 29.

MLBTR... Drew Pomeranz told reporters (including Tim Britton of the Providence Journal) that he received a stem-cell injection in his left elbow after last season concluded. The southpaw said he felt some “minor elbow discomfort” last year but is now feeling healthy as he enters his pre-Spring Training preparations. Pomeranz’s health was a major source of controversy last season, as Padres GM A.J. Preller was issued a 30-day suspension for failing to disclose medical information about Pomeranz to the Red Sox before Boston acquired the lefty for top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza. Speaking of Pomeranz, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham and other reporters that the two sides are getting close to a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing. Pomeranz filed for a $5.7MM salary while the Sox countered with a $3.6MM offer.

I never understood the Masterson love fest. 2012-2014 ERA- 119 (54th out of 56 SP'ers with 500+ IP) WHIP 1.41 (54/56) 2009-2014 ERA- 110 (50th out of 54) WHIP 1.42 (53/54) The guy didn't deserve $4.25M.

Some personalities respond to being shunned or ignored. Maybe they know this about Vaz. Maybe myself and others are just reading things into statements and non statements than are really there. It wouldn't be the first time winter boredom leads fans to chasing wild tangents.

OK, cool. I understand anyone who who thinks he was worth that money. Personally, I think he wasn't but it was close and I don't knock BC for the signing as I did with the Masterson one.

Agreed. And, on paper, we should have been much better, if not contending, in 2015 as well. People are assuming it was BC's plan to never trade a top prospect. I think that is a false narrative. I also think the lifting of the ban on signing aging SP'ers and LL's removal just as DD took over as GM has to be a consideration when viewing the context from which each GM was working under.

Dempster was not a drag on the team on the field, and he was a big part of turning around the clubhouse malaise, but the knock was justified. I seriously doubt we paid $13.5M for that much regression. Sure, some was expected, but not that much. Plus, you don't pay $13.5M for a 5th starter--not even now 4 years later as contracts have sky-rocketed for marginal SP'ers. He was expected to do better than a decent 5th starter. ERA- 2012 81 Sox 109 WHIP 2012 1.20 Sox 1.45 FIP- 2012 91 Sox 120 QS% 2012 64 Sox 48 IP/GS 2012 6.2 Sox 5.8 WAR '08 4.7 '09 3.6 '10 2.6 '11 2.5 '12 2.8 Sox 0.5 Run support: 2012 4.7 Sox 6.1 The Sox won in these Dempster starts: IP ER 4.2 5 3.1 4 5.1 3 6.0 7 6.0 5 6.0 4 Had we lost 4 or 5 of these games, maybe memories may not have been so cheery. Look, I'm fine with thinking his clubhouse presence made up for his decline on the mound. I'm fine with thinking an 0.5 WAR is good for a 5th starter, but to say you "never understood the knocks on Dempster" ignores the very significant performance decline he showed from 2012 to 2013. Surely, you should at least be able to "understand" why he got some criticism.

More times than not, middle relievers should not allow 2 ERs in 2 IP to bridge from 5.2 IP to 7.2 IP. In my given case, they could allow 3 ERs in 2 IP and be even with the second scenario.

There is a lot of promise and reason to be optimistic. The good think is that we have more promising RP'ers than 25 man roster spots, so we don't need every promise to ring true- just 3-4 on top of Kimbrel, Thornburg and Smith staying productive. My point is that on paper our pen looks weaker than the one that began 2016 that expected Carson Smith to do well and the pen that ended 2016 with a healthy Uehara & Tazawa and a guy like Ziegler added to it. That's all I'm saying. Again, our pen is not weak, but I do see it as our weakest spot right now. I'm very excited about this year's team, and if this pen is our weakest link, then that's actually a good thing when looking at the big picture.

One of the first and most obvious rules of being a GM is to meet the needs of ownership. That means making the right decisions and following the correct strategy, and executing it in such a way, that ownership's needs are met. Very true, and I am certain Ben's "5 year plan" as I called it was approved by ownership just as DD's 3 year plan is now. Ben Cherington's overall strategy was geared towards a small market team that can afford to be patient and accept rebuilding years. The Boston Red Sox are not a small market team. Winning now matters in this city and it matters with this ownership. He was a poor GM who did not adjust his thinking to the situation or prioritize the needs of the ownership over the needs of the franchise, and that's why he's gone. Small market teams don't sign Pablo & HanRam in one day. Heck, they barely sign the Chris Young's and Mitchmoreland's of the world. Had Pablo and HanRam played well in 2015, BC would probably still be here. BC's biggest mistakes beyond the Lester fiasco was his FA signings. Even the Vic, Dempster, Napoli signings ended up being one year shine and then decline deals. Those were not "small market" deals either, but they contributed to BC's departure, even though the ring in 2013 might have added a year to his tenure in Boston. I truly believe BC's plan was solid, but the execution was lacking and he was removed just before a major step was about to take place. I am firmly convinced he was going to build up the pitching in before 2016. In 2015, he realized the FA class was much better in 2016, so he went for two bats instead. They both sucked in 2015, yet without HanRam's contributions in 2016, we might not have looked like the turn around team we appeared to be last year. What if Price had bombed like the 2015 HanRam or the 2015-2016 Pablo? Would we be saying DD failed to meet the needs of ownership? I do not think BC would have done the Kimbrel or Pom deals, but he would have gotten a closer somehow. It's not like Kimbrel is a feather in DD's hat so far either. Guerra's fall from grace and the massive rise of closer FA contracts have made that deal look better, but he was not the only closer acquired that winter. I am 100% positive BC would have signed at least one of the big FA SP'ers and would have dealt a significant amount of prospects for a quality vet or two. I didn't see many great deals go down by other teams that last BC winter that I thought, wow, I wish BC wasn't so stingy with his prospects and would have one upped the offer. I think BC might have even made the Sale trade last summer, instead of the Pom trade. There's no way of knowing, but I do not think ownership was behind a plan to hoard prospects indefinitely. There was a plan to adjust course and do some wheeling and dealing at the time DD stepped in. The poor performances by BC's free agent signings did him in. I'm not even so sure we can blame the Lester fiasco on BC. It very well could have been LL and the supposed rule of not signing any old pitchers long term that was lifted just in time for DD to step in and look like an innovator. Had that rule been lifted with BC in charge, who knows... BC was replaced because the dignity and pride of the Boston Red Sox franchise collapsed under Ben Cherington. The prestige BC cost us with his overly-passive approach, and worse, his repeated decisions that took on dead money for no gain, took money out of ownership's pocket. In a smaller market BC's strategy would have been a good one, but this is a large market that needs to win to maintain peak profibability, and BC was not meeting ownershi's needs in this era. I disagree. BC made some unbelievably dramatic moves. The Dodger dump was about as anti-passive as any deal in the history of the Red Sox. It was ballsy. It was one of the most impact trades in my lifetime. We dumped Theo's Pablo in CC. We dumped the malcontent in Beckett, and we gave up AGon who has just about barely earned his salary since the trade. It was a fantastic deal that was a major reason we won in 2013 and were able to rebuild the farm while fielding teams on paper that should have competed much better than they did in 2014 and 2015.. The first year of DD it's clear that he has an ownership mandate to restore the prestige of the big league team first and foremost -- so he did. ANd to his credit, unlike Cherington, he has done a good job so far of getting the right man, sometimes, especially for big market franchises, that's a lot more important than avoiding an overpay. When a team like the Red Sox or Yankees opens their wallet or empties their reserves, it's more important that the guy they get performs than how much he costs. Especially when the #1 goal is a return to relevance. Lifting the ban on signing aging stud SP'ers certainly changed the dynamic of the GM's plans. Sustainability is only ever the goal when there's something to sustain, after all, and Theo did the same thing to rebuild the roster with a 2 year string of deals when he came in as well (and then did the same again in Chicago). Theo also mentioned the mistakes he made in Boston near the end by not keeping a proper balance and thinking FAs are the answer to every problem. I really thought BC was following the principles that Theo was doing with the Cubs. The difference was that BC missed on his FA signings and Theo nailed them. I might add that the jury is still out on DD'd ballsy moves to acquire Kimbrel and Price. The Sale deal, to me anyways, looked like a no brainer. Maybe under BC, we'd have Cueto, Clippard, Thornburg and Sale and more with the prospects used to get Kimbrel. Again, it's hard to project what might have been, but I think Emp is right, we'd probably have 2 more top 100 prospects and still be a top contender. DD now has 3 years to rebuild the farm system and move from a win-now model to a win-sustainably model. He's one of the more ingenious GM's in the business, I don't know why you guys are so unalterably convinced he won't manage to make that transition. When has he shown he can build a farm? It's not easy, and the rules have changed to make it even harder than it was before. I'm happy with what DD has done. I love our roster right now, but I'm not kidding myself. The DD prospect purge is going to cost us later. I'm fine with the trade-off, but it was indeed a trade off- make no mistake about it. We'll have to become the Dodgers East to keep winning beyond 4-5 years from now or get incredibly lucky with low draft picks and a more restrictive international FA market.

Managers almost always pump up the egos of young players by saying things like, "They have a shot at the starting job." We just haven't heard much talk like that on Vaz in a while. Maybe they know his psyche and think he doesn't need the props. "Doghouse" might be a stretch, but it's hard to think everything is all swell between Vaz and Sox management. Certainly, it could just be the sub .600 OPS and nothing more.

I do agree the Kimbrel trade would not have happened under Cherry, but I do think he was going to do some wheeling and dealing with his prospects. (Key words his prospects) He certainly doesn't do Espi for Pom. He might have done Price (or Cueto). I do think he might have done Sale. It does seem like a 3-4 year window might be right, but a lot can happen in 3 years.

He's significantly better than HanRam on D, and maybe having HanRam DH vs RHP will help keep him fresh and improve the odds of being injury free.

Damn straight!

I get it. I said it is "usually" better, when maybe saying "it is better in some ways" is more accurate. You're right though, 7.2 IP vs 5.2 IP can make a big difference in the pen's efficiency.

It's interesting to see the list of the recent prospects traded away in order of their highest soxprospects.com ranking (Last 8 months): 1 Moncada (Sale) 3 Espinoza (Pomeranz) 3 Margot (Kimbrel) 5 Kopech (Sale) 6 Guerra (Kimbrel) 7 Basabe (Sale) 9 Dubron (Thornburg) 12 Rijo (A Hill) 12 Shaw (Thornburg) 13 L Allen (Kimbrel) 18 Basabe (Ziegler) 20 C Asuaje (Kimbrel) 21 V Diaz (Sale) 24 Pennington (Thornburg) 40 J Almonte (Ziegler) 43 Wilkerson (A Hill)

True, maybe using this example is more realistic: 5.2 IP 1 ER is usually better than 7.2 IP 4 ERs.

I usually wait to watch Sox games until about 2 hours after they start. I then fast forward through the breaks.

True, but 4 IP 0 ER beats 7 IP and 4 ER most of the time.

I used to keep score of Red Sox games by radio in the 70's. I also listened to Bruin games back then.

Is there a reason for the number change?

Except DD said earlier that ERod had a rotation slot (before his minor injury in winter ball), but yeah, looks like everyone expected with Kelly.

soxprospects.com now had ERod projected in AAA and Kelly on the ML team in the pen. They still have Vaz as the back-up catcher with Swihart in AAA. http://soxprospects.com/2017.htm

The worst, least promising or most likely to be DFA'd Sox players on the current 40 (39) man roster: Brentz Marrero Noe Ramirez Abad Rutledge Ysla Workman Kyle Martin Most likely in-house players to be added to the 40 man roster before the rule 5 deadline in December: SP Kyle Kendrick 1B Sam Travis 3B Matt Dominguez 3B Rafael Devers C Dan Butler or Jordan Procyshen OF Junior Lake or B Brentz (Castillo? or Craig?) Next winter's rule 5 players: Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Gerson Bautista, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Rafael Devers, Jhonathan Diaz, Jake Drehoff, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Taylor Grover, Juan Hernandez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Tzu-Wei Lin, Nick Longhi, Isaias Lucena, Austin Maddox, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Derek Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Ben Moore, Jhon Nunez, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Carlos Tovar, Sam Travis, Jantzen Witte