moonslav59

Maybe this, if Moreland tanks, gets hurt, or looks like a worse hitter than Pablo by late May... vs RHPs: 3B: Hernandez 1B: Sandoval DH: HRam vs LHPs: 3B: Rutledge 1B: HRam DH: Young We could see this next year: vs RHPs: 1B: Pablo DH: HanRam vs LHPs: 1B: Travis DH: HanRam

It couldn't get much worse than 2015 Pablo. That was the worst defensive 3B I have ever seen,

Someday Bogey's power will improve to the point where he can hit 3rd or 4th, but for the last 2 years, I've thought he was best suited for the 2 slot. Beni may have to improve on his instincts, but with his speed and ability to get on base, he should lead off. I get the concern about putting pressure on a rookie, but they're already batting him way up in the order anyways, so I don't see much difference in pressure at the 1st slot. I'm not sure there's any rush to get Rutledge back with Marco looking okay. It looks like Holt's role has diminished, as I predicted (and suggested). I wonder what his trade stock is now. I do think Rutledge is probably a better platoon with Pablo at 3B. He's likely a better fielder at 3B than Marco and Pablo, and should hit lefties better than Marco, but I'd have no issue with giving Marco the platoon, even though it's not his best split.

Before today's game, we ranked 18th in runs scored- just 5 runs from the middle of the pack. This really isn't that bad, when you consider all the games missed by injury, illness and bereavement leave. Only Moreland has played in every game. Everyday players... 18 Moreland 17 Beni 16 Pedey/Pablo 15 Betts 14 Bogey/HRam 6 JBJ (16 Young -should only play vs LHPs)

Remember all the people blaming our offensive woes on the lack of timely hitting? Sox leaders in very tiny 2017 sample sizes: High Leverage (10+ PAs): 1.029 Moreland .798 Sandoval (Leader in High Leverage RBIs with 6) .748 M Betts .730 Pedroia .673 HRam .650 Leon .615 Bogey .607 Beni 2 Outs RISP (7+ PAs): 1.515 Beni (leader in RBIs here with 8) 1.155 Pablo (2nd in RBIs with 5) 1.029 Pedey .944 Betts .311 HRam Late & Close (9+ PAs) 1.038 Moreland 1.010 Betts .808 Leon (6 RBIs -Late & Close leader) .733 Young .701 Beni .615 Bogey .539 Pedey .508 Pablo (but 2nd in Late & Close RBIs with 3)

Of course they are, but people are saying they want him to be be benched or are close to it based on what he has done in this tiny sample size. I am trying to point out that if we just platoon him, we'll get the best out of him while also being able to see what Marco can show us hitting against his split advantage. Benching Pablo because he's not hitting, is ignoring what he has done vs RHPs- not just in this tiny sample size of 2017, but also in 2015 and the years prior. vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs: 2015: .266 18 66 (.744) 2014: .317 16 81 (.824) 2013: .281 20 99 (.786) Pablo's decline in SF was largely fueled by his dropping off a cliff vs LHPs. He has done pretty well vs righties right on through the tough times.

Even vs RHPs? 2017 Sox vs RHPs pro-rated to 650 PAs: OPS Player BA HR RBI 1.433 Vazquez .556 0 97 .939 Moreland .327 10 53 .893 M Betts .340 12 87 .800 Benintendi .288 10 85 .742 Sandoval .233 41 124 .721 Bogaerts .333 0 73 .665 C Young .268 0 14 .649 Hernandez .278 0 34 .616 Bradley Jr .235 0 68 .615 Pedroia .280 0 60 .555 HanRam .224 0 62 .411 B. Holt .133 0 0 .302 S Leon .115 0 0 If we want to improve our offense vs RHPs, we don't bench Pablo (as of now anyway).

Patience is a virtue. I'm glad we were patient with JBj and Lackey. Maybe we were too patient with others. The time is right to platoon Pablo, but I'm a long way away from suggesting we bench him FT.

I love Marco, but he is never going to be a long term solution at 3B, and his offense is still in question. His sample size is small, but he has sucked at 3B, too. I don't think he should play 3B right now, but he is at the top of my list for the first guy in, if Pablo fails. I have always had Marco ahead of Holt at just about every position he plays. While .233/.277/.465/.742 is not great, it's the thrid best OPS vs RHPs on the team. If you pro-rate Pablo's numbers vs RHPs to 650 PAs, his stat line would be... .233 37 110 This team is struggling to score runs. These are not numbers you bench. These are: .188/.235/.188/.423 (Pablo's numbers vs LHPs) These numbers are not a fluke. He had a .462 OPS vs lefties in his full 2015 season, including a .142 OPS as a RHB'er. w SFG... 2013: .686 vs LHPs 2014: .563 vs LHPs 2015: .462 2017: .423 What is the problem here? It's as clear as day: Pablo needs to be platooned. Holt has better career numbers vs LHPs than RHPs, and Marco has shown he does not have large split differentials, so even though he's a LHB, he'd be better than Pablo in a platoon.

I'm not for Pablo having the FT job no matter what. I just see three weeks as a tiny sample size. I realize 2015 was not a small sample size, and his fielding was even scarier than his bat that year. I've never been "for" Pablo having the FT job, even before the disaster that was 2015. I've wanted him platooned ever since that awful day we signed him. While money certainly playes a role in roster decisions and choices of playing time, I think it goes deeper than that. When a team gives a player that kind of money, they have high expectations. I did not understand their reasoning when the signed him. He had been in serious decline offensively and defensively for 3-4 years. His numbers vs LHPs were screaming for a platoon, and like my warnings when we signed CC, I never understood why anyone would pay that sort of money for a platoon player. The weight issue only added to the risk. The only "reward" I could see was based on a hope that maybe-just maybe- he could give us Papiesque playoff heroics as he had done many times with the Giants. I hated the deal then, and I hate it now. He should have been platooned since day one. I doubt there's be all this talk of replacing him at 3B, if his current OPS was .742. Right now, Pablo's .742 OPS vs RHPs is third on the team for that split. His 3 HRs and 9 RBIs in just 43 ABs vs RHPs is reason enough, for me, to not give up on him just yet. I'm a huge fan of defense, and Pablo's D sickens me. It's one reason I have advocated him switching to 1B or DH, but once we moved HRam to 1B instead of Pablo, the die was cast. When we signed Moreland, any such move was put off for a year-barring injury. With Travis in the wings, it might not happen until HRam's deal expires. I'm a huge Marco fan, and I hated the Pablo signing, so I can see why people cannot understand why I'm still on board with keeping Pablo as our starting 3Bman vs RH'd starters for at least a few more weeks. If he continues to struggle on defense, and yes, there are fielding slumps that can be overcome, then maybe he needs to be benched or moved to DH vs RHPs. That's assuming HRam can play 1B, and Moreland is hitting worse than Pablo (enough to overcome the defense we lose at 1B). What a mess we are in! This whole 3B rollercoaster ride has sucked. We haven't had decent play from that position since we forced two SSs to play it (Iggy & Bogey in 2013). I love Marco, but he is never going to be a long term solution at 3B, and his offense is still in question. His sample size is small, but he has sucked at 3B, too. I don't think he should play 3B right now, but he is at the top of my list for the first guy in, if Pablo fails. I have always had Marco ahead of Holt at just about every position he plays. While .233/.277/.465/.742 is not great, it's the thrid best OPS vs RHPs on the team. If you pro-rate Pablo's numbers vs RHPs to 650 PAs, his stat line would be... .233 37 110 This team is struggling to score runs. These are not numbers you bench. These are: .188/.235/.188/.423 (Pablo's numbers vs LHPs) These numbers are not a fluke. He had a .462 OPS vs lefties in his full 2015 season, including a .142 OPS as a RHB'er. w SFG... 2013: .686 vs LHPs 2014: .563 vs LHPs 2015: .462 2017: .423 What is the problem here? It's as clear as day: Pablo needs to be platooned. Holt has better career numbers vs LHPs than RHPs, and Marco has shown he does not have large split differentials, so even though he's a LHB, he'd be better than Pablo in a platoon.

. We have a $30M starter on the DL along with 3 other pitchers. We've had everyday players out sick and injured. Yes, it's way too early to panic. We've yet to even see anything close to our full team on the field at the same time. This will be a fun team to watch this year.

1. Beni 2. Bogey 3. Betts ...should be the start of our line-up. (This not the line-up I just came up with. It's what I have wanted all along, and to me, it looks so damn good!)

I'm only mildly concerned with Wright. Once it warms up, I think he'll be fine. I can see how watching a knuckler get lit up sucks, but I hate watching any Sox pitcher getting lit up equally.

I agree. June sounds about right, but if he keeps making 4 errors every 3 weeks and stays around .210, we may see a change by mid May. I never have understood why they keep starting him vs lefties. He's barely proven he can hit righties enough to start over the last 3-4 years.

I disagree. I think the Sox still think Pablo can regain a large part of what he used to be. I'm not sure I agree he can, but he got himself in shape and has been given a shot. The sample size of this year is tiny. Look, I hated the Pablo signing from day one. I like the choice of Shaw over Pablo last spring, despite my lack of confidence in Shaw. I've been one of Marco's biggest cheerleaders, and advocated trading Holt for over a year, so Hernandez could get some playing time. That being said, Marco is not really a 3Bman. Now, no doubt, if Pablo continues his current defensive look, it doesn't matter if Marco is a slight negative on defense. There's no way Pablo stays at 3B, if he fields like he did in 2015. I'll be Marco's number one advocate to play 3B once the sample size gets large enough to determine anything definitive. (Speaking of tiny sample sizes, Marco has a worse fldg% at 3B than Pablo this year and also from 2015-2017. UZR/150 (note: Marco's career sample size is just 77 innings) -22.7 Pablo -50.5 Marco I'd love nothing more than for Marco to get a chance to shine, but I just don't like the feel of him at 3B. I'm not hoping for Pablo to fail, so Marco will get a chance. I'm not saying money has nothing to do with this choice, but choosing Shaw over Pablo last spring shows it's not ALL ABOUT money.

Maybe=maybe not. Certainly there is a strong chance Pablo is never going to come close to what he used to be. My statement that Pablo may end up with better numbers than Shaw was more about my lack of confidence in Shaw than any great hope for Pablo.

Yup. Shaw beat out Pablo.

I've been a huge Marco fan since day one of the trade, but I am not sure he is a plus defender at 3B at this moment. I guess you don't have to be a plus to still be better than Pablo on defense, but Pablo used to be a slight plus defender. The sample size is still too small to make a clear and lasting evaluation, but Pablo better start showing improvement on defense or he may be looking at losing his job again. I'm not as worried about his offense, especially if they do like they should have since day one: platoon him or at least demand he give up switch-hitting.

They benched Pablo for Shaw last year. I'm not saying money doesn't play a role in the decisions, but the Sox have proven it's not "all about money". While Shaw might end up being better than Pablo over the next 2-3 years, I doubt he ends up a plus 3Bman.

Don't be surprised if Pablo ends up with better numbers than Shaw.

I think we had a better chance to win with Sale going out to start the 9th. I get the argument about not pushing a starter in April, but it was just 102 pitches. That being said, the choice JF made was reasonable, and I have no issue with the choice he made.

Yeah, he's hitting the ball hard, but what's the guarantee that continues? Again, I'm not for benching Pablo. I am for platooning him and getting ready for him to move to 1B/DH platoon next season.

Agreed, and that's why I have no problem with the choice Jf made.

It's hard to yank someone who has so many important hits, but having him DH was an option when HRam was out..

The thought would be to yank him, if one guy gets on, unless it was an IF single or blooper or yank him if 2 guys get on or he's near 115-120 pitches with 0-1 outs and a guy at second. I've already said, I have no problem bringing in Kimbrel, but certainly at 102 pitches a case can be made, April or not, for leaving him in for a few more pitches.