moonslav59

I wasn't expecting to outscore our opponents by 100 runs this year but I was expecting better than middle of the pack offense. I thought we'd be in the top 2-3. We're just 19 runs from top 5 with about 2/3 a season to go. I also expected that with the additions to our pitching staff that the staff's ERA would be significantly better this year, but it's not. If we can keep our rotation healthy and have just one of CSmith or Thornburg return at top form, I think our end of season staff will be as strong as ever. That could be too big of an if, but it's certainly possible. I certainly did not expect that our defense would be as porous as it's been, even though most of those errors have been at 3B. We're currently 3 games back and IMO we've pissed away enough games with our errors at 3B to make up those three games. I thought our defense would be slightly improved this year: + at 1B, C and LF maybe a better year at SS - at 3B. Our defense has looked awful.

We have a few historically mid-late season hitters on this team, such as Betts & JBJ. I think we have been fortunate that Moreland & our catchers have hit well, so far, and maybe expecting them to continue is too much to ask. Them dropping might out weigh the expected improvement from Betts & JBJ and possibly others like Beni, Pablo and Young. Pedey & HRam's health is crucial to any turn-around this offense might have. So far, it looks like some other teams have juggernaut offenses. the Astros look frightening! However, I still think our offense is much better than "middle-of-the-pack". I'll be shocked, if we don't finish in the top 10 in runs scored, and I still think we'll finish top 5 or 6. Yeah, it hurts losing Papi. It's hard to imagine a way for us to win without a big slugger (or two). We haven't done it in my lifetime, but other teams have. Maybe we're locked into a mindset that just can't imagine any other way to win than by having super-stud hitters. However, Red Sox history is cluttered with "lost seasons" full of top hitting teams. The only times we ever seemed to win was when we had two stud pitchers: Pedro-Schilling, Schilling-Beckett and Lester-Lackey. Now we have 3: Sale-Price-Porcello. Maybe that's not going to be enough, but I think we should keep our minds open to the idea that there are other ways of winning rings. We're only 4 runs away from top 10 right now and 19 runs away from top 5. We have some very good hitter. Out of the 322 hitters with 300+ PAs from 2016 to 2017, here's how we stand: We lost the second best OPS guy in Papi at 1.021. #24 Betts .876 #46 HRam .840 #66 JBJ .821 #81 Bogey .812 #86 Young .810 #89 Pedey .809 While I'd rather see more hitters in the top 30 or top 10, itt's pretty nice having 6 guys in the top 90. With 30 teams in the league, the average is 3 per team. We also have Leon at #102 (.795) which is 10th best among catchers with 300+ PAs. Beni is at #170 (.755) and Moreland is at #180 (.751). I think there is good reason to be optimistic. I get the argument that Papi probably helped hitters around him in the line up do better, but I still think some of our good hitters will turn things around. Only Bogey and Vaz are having better OPS seasons than last year. I don't expect that to continue. 2016>2017 .845>.670 SLeon -.175 .835>.712 Beni -.123 .850>.734 Young -.116 .866>.749 HRam -.115 .897> .809 Betts -.098 .825>.749 Pedey -.076 .835>.763 J.B.Jr -.072 (Note: Papi 1.021 > Moreland .828 is -.193) Do we really expect all these guys to continue having big drop-off years all at the same time? The plusses: .585>.845 Vaz +.340 .802>.845 Bogey +.043 (Note: Shaw .726 to Pablo .718 is just -.008) Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I see plenty of room for significant improvement by several players on this team. I expect improvement. I could be wrong, but I don't think we need massive improvements on our offense, if our rotation can stay healthy, and we get back a powerful C Smith or Thornburg by playoff time.

It does seem like there is a strong correlation between having a healthy rotation and winning a lot and winning championships. Plus, of course, how good the rotation is matters a lot, too. Games started: 2003:95-67 (only 10+ starts listed) 33 Lowe 33 Wake 30 Burkett 29 Pedro 14 Fossum/10 Suppan 2004: 98-64 Championship 33 Pedro 33 Lowe 32 Schilling 32 Wakefield 32 Arroyo 2005:95-67 (No more Pedro era begins) 33 Wake 32 Arroyo 32 Clement 30 Wells 16 W Miller/11 Schilling 2006: 86-76 33 Beckett 31 Schilling 23 Wake 15 Lester 12 Clement/10 Snyder 2007: 101-61 (The Beckett era's 2nd year) 32 Dice K 31 Wake 30 Beckett 24 Schilling 23 Tavarez/11 Lester 2008: 95-67 (The Lester era begins) 33 Lester 30 Wake 29 Dice-K 27 Beckett 15 Buch (9 Masterson/8 P Byrd) 2009:95-67 32 Lester 32 Beckett 24 Penny 21 Wake 16 Buch/12 Dice-K (8 Smoltz) 2010:89-73 (4.40 ERA or higher with 4 of these 6) 33 Lackey 32 Lester 28 Buch 25 Dice-K 21 Beckett/19 Wake 2011: 94-68 31 Lester 30 Beckett 28 Lackey (6.41 ERA) 23 Wake 14 Buch/12 A Miller (8 Bedard & 7 Dice K) 2012: 74-88 (Year of CC, Beckett, AGon Purge) (Note: no starter ERA below 4.56!) 33 Lester (4.82) 29 Buch (4.56) 29 Doubront (4.86) 21 Beckett (5.23) 18 A Cook (5.65)/11 Dice-K (8.28)/10 Bard (6.22) 2013: 97-65 Championship (Note: No starter ERA above 4.57- the exact opposite of 2012!) 33 Lester 29 Lackey (healthy) 29 Dempster 27 Doubront 16 Buch/10 Peavy 2014:72-90 (The Great Rotation Purge season) 28 Buch (5.24) 21 Lester- traded 21 Lackey- traded 20 Peavy- traded 10 Doubront- traded 18 de la Rosa/15 Workman/11 Webster/10 J Kelly (7 Ranaudo) 2015: 78-84 32 W Miley 28 Porcello (4.92 but wins Cy Young the next year) 25 Kelly 21 ERod 18 Buch/11 Owens (Yes! Buck Owens!) (9 by Wright & Masterson) 2016:93-69 (The Price era begins and all 5 starters start 20+ games.) 35 Price 33 Porcello (3.15) 24 Wright 21 Buch 20 ERod/13 Pom 2017:29-24 (on pace for 89-73) The Chris Sale Era begins. 11 Sale 11 Porcello 10 ERod (on DL now) 1 Price 5 Wright (Done for year.) 10 Pom 2 Johnson/2 Kendrick/1 Velazquez Having a great rotation, especially with the top 3 or 4 slots is important, but it seems like equally important is how healthy the rotation is bot in terms of GS'd and starts made while injured (Lackey/Buch) or healthy.

Moreland has a 1.098 OPS over the last two weeks. We should ride his horse until he shows he can't be ridden anymore. Shaw will get his chance someday. With HRam looking as fragile as an egg, it might be sooner rather than later. Pablo's going to get a good look. He didn't look any fatter to me, but it's hard to tell. Marrero is not the answer for 3B, even as a place setter for Devers. We just need Pablo to just be halfway decent. I'm not worried about this team, yet. Hopefully some returning players from the DL will lift us to a prolonged winning period.

Two games ago, people were talking like we were looking good. It's a long season. It's just two games. Our bats will come alive... and then some. Take two deep breaths.

Soxprospects.com released their June rankings. 1-20: http://www.soxprospects.com/index.html 21-60: http://www.soxprospects.com/moreprospects.htm With Beni now a graduated prospect, here's a list of players who moved up more than 1 slot: +6 Ockimey (10>4) +6 Lakins (12>6) +4 Chavis (11>7) +4 Johnson (13>9) +3 Mata (16>13) +2 Chatham (11>7) +21 J Tobias (47>26) +17 A Maddox (40>23) +15 D Mars (44>29) +14 Callahan (33>19) +10 A Tavarez (28>18) +8 J Beeks (23>15) +7 D Hernandez (21>14) +6 Nogosek (26>20) Who moved down? -8 R Raudes (8>16) -3 Dalbec (5>8) -1 Longhi (9>10) -13 Cosart (15>28) -9 Ysla (18>27) -8 Bautista (22>30)

Big bummer. I hope he's not out long.

Plus, it's not like we have anyone else to play 3B right now that is a clear overall plus.

I agree that Pablo should get another significant look. I'm not sure when Devers will or should be called up. I trust Sox management to know the right time.

And, nobody was unconcerned about his loss.

It's pretty sad when we look to a guy with a .577 OPS (Marrero) or .604 OPS (Rutledge) to replace or platoon with Pablo (.696 OPS). We've already used 6 guys at 3B this year, and Marrero leads the team in 3B PAs with just 70! OPS at 3B only: .556 Marrero .666 Pablo (63 PAs at 3B) .663 Rutledge (38) .556 Marco (27) .250 Holt (4) .000 Selsky (1)

I said the same thing when we signed CC.

Once Pedey comes back, the Marrero vs Rutledge debate will occur on who should be Pablo's platoon at 3B.

The main point is that the "other eyes" watch every CF'er in every game, while our eyes just watch JBJ and whoever the CF'er in the games vs the Sox and maybe a couple handfuls of other games.

Someday... I hope.

Our rotation over the last 28 days... 1-0 0.00 Johnson 3-0 2.81 ERod 2-2 3.94 Porcello 2-2 4.50 Pom 4-0 4.73 Sale 0-0 5.40 Price 0-1 10.80 Velazquez 0-1 12.46 Kendrick Last 14 days... 1-0 0.00 Johnson 2-0 1.93 ERod 2-0 2.12 Pom 1-1 4.15 Porcello 2-0 4.66 Sale 0-0 5.40 Price

Got that right!

Some news from soxprospects.com... http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/06/cup-of-coffee-mata-impresses-again.html Josh Ockimey was on base four times via two singles, a double, and a walk, and Michael Chavis added an RBI double. Austin Rei also added a double as part of his two-hit night as the usual suspects did the damage for Salem. It was another rough start for Trey Ball, as he allowed six runs on nine hits, including four home runs, over 5 1/3 innings as he dropped to 1-5 on the season. Ball has now surrendered 20 earned runs over his last 20 2/3 innings as his ERA has ballooned to 5.77. Bryan Mata turned in another impressive start as the 18-year-old allowed one run over six innings, walking two and striking out six. He now has 10 strikeouts over his nine innings of work, showing that he is not over-matched against the older competition. Kyle Kendrick was lit up again, giving up seven runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings. A game-tying grand slam in the top of the seventh from Bryce Brentz was the biggest hit of the night as the PawSox battled the Tides. Brentz is now 12 for his last 28 with eight walks and three home runs. After starting the year hitting .162 over his first 105 at-bats, Brentz has rebounded nicely to put up some impressive numbers over the last two weeks. Listen to the podcast... http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/05/podcast-episode-120-it-wouldnt-be-first.html

Yeah, that was surprising to me. Fielding is supposed to be easier to project. In DM's defense, he only played 45 innings at 3B in the minors. (One of my pet peaves about the Sox organization is that they do no properly prepare their players to play the position they most likely will (be forced to) play.)

Good points. Hopefully, Price will learn something from Chris Freakin Sale.

Because as soon as he is moved down he will get hot, and someone will claim he hits better from the 8 hole and should stay there.

I'm not sure Marrero's stock should be very high. I guess watching the bumblings we've had going on at 3B for years makes anyone who can make plays look like a keeper. I'm glad Marrero has done a very good job over a short time, but he is not and never will be our permanent solution at 3B- not that anyone has said he should or will be. With Holt and Hernandez out for an extended time, I like the idea of keeping Marrero as our best SS back-up and an option at 3B, if needed. Pablo is going to get a significant look. It is what it is, regardless of what any of us want or think is best. Personally, I'm okay with giving Pablo a few weeks to shine. I'd seriously consider using Marrero or Rutledge at 3B vs LHPs and never letting Pablo start vs a lefty again.

Jeff Samardzija is 1-7 with a 4.63 ERA right now. He's owed $54M over the next 3 years after this one. He'll be owed about $6M at the trade deadline. That's $60M. Pablo is owed: 2017:$17M/year (about $6M at the dealine). 18-19:$18M/year. 20:$17M club option ($5M buyout) That's $47M minimum. SF's 3Bman is hitting under a .550 OPS. How about we send Pablo back to SF, who would save $13M over 3.3 years. Pablo, Johnson and Holt for Samardzija Move Pom to long relief.

According to soxprospects.com... MLB Service Time (through 2016): 4 years, 154 days

Gottcha. I forgot about us going through all this a couple months ago. Thanks.