moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Assuming we stay under the $40m limit, here's what our tax might be.... Year 1 (2018): $33M over 20% tax= $6.6M 12% tax on 20-33M= $1.6M We're at a tax of $8.2M this year. Let's assume we stay at about $33M over next year: 30% tax= 9.9M 12% tax on $13M= $1.6M Total 2019 tax: $11.5M Same in 2020? Tax would be $16.5M + $1.6M= $18.1M
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How is Brentz going to get any time, unless we trade JBJ or someone gets hurt? Even if somebody gets hurt, we have JDM & Nunez to play LF over Brentz. I might even prefer Swihart or Moreland in LF over BB. Maybe we can trade Brentz & Johnson for a better 6th starter.
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Again, I'm not for trading JBJ, but if it improves our offense and adds a quality SP'er like Salazar, I can see giving up some defense to do it. I'd definitely do this.... JBJ, Hembree & Johnson for Carrasco, but I doubt CLE does it.
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I don't see us making a big splash next winter. I think we'll try to keep under the $40M limit again. Assuming HRam does not vest and we have the $9M bump plus the $7M we are under now, we're at... Sale's option adds $1M Subtract: $22M HRam $13M Kimbrel $9M CB bump $8.5M Pomeranz $7M under now $3.8M Kelly ~$62M Arb raises will eat up a big chunk. We have to re-sign or replace in kind, Pom, Kimbrel & Kelly. Maybe we can do without Kelly, but we need to replace Kimbrel and Pom. I doubt they'll be much money left over for anybody else. They both will get hefty raises. If Smith and Thornburg step it up this year, we may get by without Kimbrel. I can't see Wright or Johnson taking Pom's place without a significant drop off.
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Trading JBJ does give 500+ more PAs to HRam & Nunez and possibly Brentz. My guess is, HRam + Nunez can outhit JBJ. We'd lose big on defense by playing JD in LF and Beni in CF, but that might be offset by adding a pitcher like Salazar to the rotation. (Note: Salazar gets paid $5M this year and has 2 arb years left.) Salazar by the numbers: 2015-2017 18th in xFIP at 3.50 (same as Price and just worse than Bumgarner, Lester & Greinke 29th in WAR at 7.8 30th in ERA- at 89 (Same as Duffy- better than S Gray & Archer) 35th in WHIP at 1.25 (just better than Duffy & Pom) The killer: 73rd in IP (67th in GS'd)
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Salazar is a big injury risk. We might not need to add more. If so, maybe add Johnson or Swihart (both out of options). Hembree is also out of options, but I think adding him makes the cost way too high. I might not even give up JBJ for Salazar straight up, but I might be biased. I'm a huge JBJ fan.
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I'm not for trading JBJ either, but if we traded JBJ and Holt for Salazar, we'd save almost $3.4M.
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https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/ This site has the Sox with 10 players in the top 200 power rankings: 1 Sale 18 JDM 19 Kimbrel 21 Betts 66 Beni 113 Bogey 122 Moreland 143 Nunez 167 HRam 193 JBJ (JD not listed yet on this list but on the depth charts) They have Leon starting in AAA with Swihart, HRam, Holt and Brentz on the bench. I guess they don't pay attention to options remaining, as they have Leon and Marrero in AAA.
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Here's another choice: put Pedey on the 60 day DL, so he doesn't rush himself into a re-injury.
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Any word on who is being DFA'd or traded to make room for JD? Brentz? Marrero? Elias? Jerez? Shepher or Buttrey? Trade Holt? Pedey to 60 day DL?
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Cots has us just barely under $230M, so we have about $7M to use on mid season call-up salary adjustments, bonuses and possible further acquisitions. We could possibly shed some salary, if needed, but trading one or more of these players (AVV salary listed): HRam: some portion of his $22M JBJ: $6.1M (acquire a solid SP'er mid-season?) Kelly: $3.825M Holt: $2.225M Thornburg $2.05M once he comes off the DL
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We'll also have a decent bench: HRam or Moreland Leon 2 from: Hernandez, Swihart, Holt, Brentz and Marrero When Pedey comes back, wow!
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Yes, and it's not like we will reset the tax before then, so we'll be looking at a multiplier tax rate year 2 & 3 and likely beyond.
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wRC+ since 2014 (4 seasons): 171 Trout 161 Votto 149 Stanton 148 JD Martinez, Harper & Goldschmidt JD has had a .936 OPS over 4 years, which is .001 below Papi. He has the lowest BB% (8.6) of any of the top 12 wRC+ players.
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Welcome back... I think!
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I think Cora will start out with this... vs RHP 1) Betts RF 2) Nunez 2B 3) Beni LF 4) JDM DH 5) Devers 3B 6) Moreland 1B 7) Bogey SS 8) JBJ CF 9) Vaz C vs LHPs 1) Betts RF 2) Nunez 2B 3) Bogey SS 4) JDM DH 5) HRam 1B 6) Beni LF 7) Devers 3B 8) Vaz C 9) JBJ CF
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No, but anyone can out burger the kingface.
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In general, you don't look to trade players capable of "so much more". I could see us trading JBJ, if HRam looks strong and healthy. You basically be trading JBJ's bat for HRam's and probably getting a decent pitcher in return. (Note: I am not for trading JBJ, unless it is for someone very special.) Pedey's health is an issue, but I don't see a "bubble." Bogey will not be traded, even with Nunez looking for more playing time. Just my opinions.
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No, it's... $25M $25M opt out $22M opt out $19M $19M
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I'd flip Devers & HRam amd JBJ and Vaz.
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We have no need for Brentz. JD can play LF whenever an OF'er gets hurt or needs a rest. That frees up a few PAs at DH for HRam. Playing JD in LF also squeezes some PAs from Nunez. If we really want Nunez to get 450-550 PAs, there's just no room for everybody. I can understand wanting to keep the depth, but I would not be surprised to see HRam dumped (maybe save $4-7M) or JBJ traded. We could trade Holt and save $2M. Adding Nunez and JD really puts a squeeze on several players, but it's not like the world ends, if we have to DFA or trade Brentz, Marrero, Swihart, Holt or Hernandez.
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I think these guys have left-handed batters under control: Kimbrel .498 vs LHBs (.451 vs RHBs) great vs both CSmith .522 vs LHBS (.516 vs RHBS) almost identical Thornburg .531 vs LHBs (.732) freaky reverse split! Our current LOOGY: Scott .522 vs LHBs (.800 vs RHBs) Not so great vs LHBs: J Kelly .746 (.697 v RHBs) Workman .761 (.752) pretty even Barnes .788 (.712) Hembree .839 (.708) Maddox .720 (.340) small sample sizes
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No, $60M/3 would suck, but it's better than $75M/3 remaining.
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I think we save what little we have left for the summer. We have some 25-man roster crunch issues to solve before opening day. With Hembree and Johnson out of options, and Thornburg and ERod coming back at some point in the season, I think the pen we have now is what we go with to start the season. Wright, Johnson and Velazquez fight it for the 5 slot in the rotation.
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The one dripping on the wall.
