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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    There's a few major concerns going into this season, but IMO, there are far more positive things that could happen.
  2. moonslav59
    Couldn't agree any more.
  3. moonslav59
    I'm extremely thrilled we are going in this direction. I love the Cora signing, and even though he has no experience as a manager, I'm confident his learning curve will be short.
  4. moonslav59
    I'm sure nobody will let me forget my position, if Hosmer goes on to do well. I guess I'll never understand what so many people see in a 1Bman who sucks every other year and is barely decent the rest of the time, and whose one redeeming skill, defense, has now become a big negative. His clubhouse leadership must be off-the-charts great! I realize JD is a gamble, but it's a shorter gamble, and he's not had an off year for 4 years. Hosmer's had 2.
  5. moonslav59
    So, you'll take the guy who is decent half the seasons but stays healthy every season.
  6. moonslav59
    Well, we have 2 of our best 6 starters out to start the season and Pom has arm tightness. Price is questionable for 28+ starts. Porcello's value is largely an unknown going forward. I'd like some vet depth, but we can't spend much, so I', okay with giving Johnson, Velazquez, Elias and maybe Beeks a look before going out and trading for someone. The longer we wait, the less a good pitcher will count against our budget,
  7. moonslav59
    I value your opinion. I know you rely on WAR and projected WAR for much of your positions, but I was wondering about your opinion. Put it this way, if you were a Sox or Padre fan, would you be happier as a Sox fan signing JD to his deal or as a Padre fan signing Hosmer?
  8. moonslav59
    MLBTR... The hiring of new manager Alex Cora as gave the Red Sox some insight into how the Astros (Cora’s former team) used analytics to help with in-game strategy, and it made the Sox realize that they were falling behind in the advanced statistics arms race, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. Boston’s analytics department is now up to 10 full-time employees (plus interns) after some offseason hirings, and the team has drastically overhauled its advance scouting and data-gathering methodology to better get information to Cora and the coaching staff.
  9. moonslav59
    So, will you ever answer which one you think will have the better year and contract term? You don't have to use OPS or Steamer. I'm just wondering who you think is the better player and who will end up being the best signing overall.
  10. moonslav59
    Agreed. Our line-up does seem pretty set with nobody on the bench who has value that screams for more playing time. We have poor infield defense, so I guess we could use Marrero as a late inning defensive replacement for Devers, Bogey or Nunez. Moreland will get some PAs, especially if HRam struggles or plays some DH. Beni could continue struggling vs LHPs and might need to sit some there, but I doubt it happens much, and I seriously doubt Cora ever platoons him. JBJ could sit when slumping with JD playing LF at Fenway and RF away. Our bench seems better suited to PH for our catchers, and that's why I like the idea of keeping Leon & Swihart on the 25 man roster, at least until Pedey returns. That will be when our bench choices become more meaningful and impacting.
  11. moonslav59
    Ben had some big contracts on the roster he inherited as well. He also had a depleted farm and so had no real trade options. He had to go the free agent route. That doesn't excuse the poor FA choices he made, but it did make sense to wait a year to sign a pitcher as the market was loaded his second year and go for offense year 1.
  12. moonslav59
    Is it wrong to point out that an argument could be made that a team outspending other top spenders by $40M should probably be a top 2 or 3 contender? That's all I did. I didn't even say I agreed with anyone making that argument. DD has a plan. He has pushed hard for a ring in a 3 or 4 year window, and one year has gone by. I like our chances in the next 2-3 years. I'm happy with what DD has done. I'm miles and miles away from calling for his departure.
  13. moonslav59
    Yes, I agreed DD has a plan. I'd have done a few things differently, and I've been very specific about those ideas. Once DD decided to sacrifice some of the extended future for a 3-4 year window, I have praised him for the moves he's made. Playing it halfway would have been worse. It's hard to be critical of the Sale or Pom trades, especially before we see what the prospects we gave up become. The Kimbrel trade looks much better now, since closer costs have sky-rocketed after the deal. His only bad move looks like the Thornburg trade and maybe the Price signing, and both still have time to turn around.
  14. moonslav59
    You didn't answer my question, and Steamer itself projects a hug disparity in OPS between the two.
  15. moonslav59
    WAR actually subtracts value for being a DH. Hosmer has been s*****. He used to be decent, but over the last 2 years he has categorically sucked. I know UZR/150 and DRS are nit the best defensive measures for 1Bmen, but to finish 25th out of 30 in UZR/150 and 30th out of 30 in DRS tells an accurate enough picture of his defensive deterioration. He sucks on defense.
  16. moonslav59
    Mookie is number 40 on my worry list of players on the 40 man roster.
  17. moonslav59
    Yes, indeed. We had good luck with Fister, Rich Hill and Franklin Morales, but not such good luck with Aaron Cook, Sean O'Sullivan, Byrd and Colon.
  18. moonslav59
    So, Steamer projects an .827 OPS for Hosmer. His first back-to-back .800 OPS (actually .762+) seasons of his career. They project a .910 OPS for JD. I guess they value s***** defense much more than I do.
  19. moonslav59
    So, you think Hosmer and JD are equal?
  20. moonslav59
    JBJ is not all that fast, so his good base-running numbers come from having good instincts.
  21. moonslav59
    Yes, but so are some of our best players, and Ben's prospects helped DD get Sale, Pom & Kimbrel.
  22. moonslav59
    I'm almost certain DD signs a "has been" to stash in AAA as insurance.
  23. moonslav59
    I don't hate players who suck for other teams.
  24. moonslav59
    ST'ing OPS (9+ ABs) 1.529 Beni 1.414 Bogey 1.310 Swihart 1.066 Travis 1.000 Devers .956 CAstillo .767 de la Guerra .742 Holt .737 Tavarez .683 de Jesus .676 HRam .664 Barfield .641 JBJ .629 Lin .557 Marrero .502 Quiroz .451 Selsky .442 Vazquez .222 Moreland .176 Betts
  25. moonslav59
    DRS does account for catching the ball. UZR/150 does, too, but they do put a lot of emphasis on the amount of plays made out of possible plays possible, which isn't a bad thing for any defender to be judged by. UZR shows Hosmer is a plus on ErrR (over 3.0 for 3 straight years), so his bad numbers would be worse without that factoring in. He's a big minus on range (-11.2 and -4.4 the last 2 years). He's minus on DPR (-0.3 and -0.2) On Inside Edge Fielding, he's made less than 60% of "likely plays" in 2 of his last 3 seasons (78% career). On "even plays", he's been horrible over the last 2 years: 14.3% in 2016 20.0% in 2017 These are plays most 1Bmen make 40-60% of the time.
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