moonslav59

I like the line-up, except for one thing (see below). I'm assuming HRam's out due to recovery from the injury or is just getting a rest. Moreland has also shown some signs of snapping out of a long and miserable slump. I'm glad JF didn't bat him 4th or 5th. I would not bat Beni in the top 5 or 6 hitters vs LHPs. He just has not shown the ability to hit lefties well enough to be that high up. JF's obsession with L-R-L near the top of every line-up verges on absurdity. I will say that nobody else jumps out as a clearly better 3rd slot hitter: Bogey still hasn't fully snapped out of his long slump. Devers probably should not bat 3rd (yet). Moreland has not proven he's back to form. I'll never understand batting JBJ last, but I've already beaten that horse to death. (I'd put JBJ up 3rd, if you have to have the L-R-L thing. I'm not upset about Beni up 3rd for the reasons just listed as much as I was for hitting Holt up so high recently. I'm glad Betts is up 4th. I hope he stays there to end the season. When HRam is back, maybe we can see this... 1) Nunez DH 2) Pedey 3) Beni vs R/HRam (1B)v L 4) Betts 5) Devers 6) HRam (1B)v R/Young (LF)v L 7) JBJ vs R/ Bogey v L 8) Bogey v R/ JBJ v L 9) Vaz Bench: Young or Beni Moreland Holt Leon

I live just SW of Houston. Nobody I know here has any confidence in Peacock continuing this streak of good pitching.

The Rays are tied in the race for the last wild card slot. Looks like the AL East is again stronger than others. Don't forget the Mariners either. They recently picked up Alonso and others to strengthen themselves for the playoff run. Even the O's are close behind. NYY 59-51 TBR 58-55 (-2.5 from NYY) KCR 57-54 --- SEA 57-56 -1 BAL 56-56 -1.5 MN 54-56 -2.5 LAA 55-58 -3 TEX 53-58 -4 TOR 52-59 -5 The NL is way different. The Cubs and Brewers are neck and neck for the division, but the loser will likely miss out on the playoffs as the NL West is ahead. COL 64-48 AZ 63-48 (-0.5 from 1st WC slot) MIL 59-55 -5.5 StL 56-56 -7.5 As you can see, we have 5 teams within 5 games of the the last WC team. The NL has zero within 5 games of AZ.

When I throw a baseball high over my head, it rises. When a pitch is released in may rise initially, reach it's apex and then start declining due to gravitational forces. For the purposes of this discussion, the "rising fastball" appears to rise towards the end of its journey to the plate, when actually it is probably just that it does not fall as much as a batter (or observing fan) might expect or is accustomed to seeing. The ball does not and can not rise after the apex.

Yes, $127M/4. We'd free up $31M on the luxury tax budget for the 4 years remaining.

.840 is not all that great for AAA, but he might get a chance. If we reset the tax this year, then the tax on Castillo's contract will likely be less than a good FA 4th OF'er might cost. If you are going by just AAA numbers, then Brentz might be a better (and cheaper) option than Castillo. The big problem with adding Castillo to the 40 man roster is that his $11M contract will count vs the luxury tax until it runs out, even if we try to remove him from the 40 man roster at a later date (assuming he does not do very well). That could end up being a hefty tax by his last year on his contract. My guess is he remains in purgatory for the remainder of his deal.

Soxprospoects.com has this for their "Future" roster: 2020 Price ERod Groome Wright Houck 2021 Price ERod Groome Houck Scherff/Mata

There are clutch hits, but nobody has ever proven or convinced me there is such a thing as a "clutch hitter". It's just not a sustainable skill. It's actually not even a skill. You'll have a very long wait to ever hear me say, so and so "is a clutch hitter."

There may be a very slight influence with "protection" but I feel it is basically insignificant. The studies show that to be the case. I don't think the fact that 6 of our 7 returning players have a worse OPS than last year proves that the loss of Papi's "protection" is the reason. Why did we suck in 2014 and 2015? Papi was here in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. The thing with Wake's "cary-over affect" is different. The knuckleball messes with hitters' timing. That can carry into the next game and beyond.

No, men on base includes times with RISP and times with just a man on 1B alone.

I've seen games in NY (Old stadium), Baltimore, TB, Atl, Mil, Det, Tex, Hou and CWS.

Very true. We did swing and miss on Castillo, but we have used many of our recent signings to put together packages for some good to great players. We currently have Sox-signed international players, Devers, Bogey, HRam, Lin and Velazquez (and others) on the roster. Chris Sale for Yoan Moncada, Luis Basabe, Victor Diaz and another Craig Kimbrel for Margot and others Drew Pomeranz for Anderson Espinoza Adisson Reed for Gerson Bautista and others Carson Smith for Jonathan Aro and another Marco Hernandez for Doubront Brock Holt for Stolmy Pimental and others In the recent past, we also got Ziegler for Basabe and J Almonte and Jake Peaavy for Iggy and Montas-both Int'l FA signings

No, that's not what I was trying to say. Farrell has gotten the memo on how the ideas of traditional line ups are changing. He has just not fully warmed up to the ideas yet. - Kimmi Fair enough. I know line-up construction is not all that big of a deal, but some of our line-ups have been jokes. I don't think the top brass presses him too much about how he sets the line up anyway. They give him the pertinent data, but I think they let him set it the way he wants to, which is the way it should be. Farrell knows the players better than the rest of us do. Maybe too much. The whole "loyalty" thing seems to weigh heavily with JF (and Tito before him).

You're right. I was too harsh on Porcello. The post was within the context of what our returning players have given us as compared to last year, so I was bit too unfair towards Porcello.

Take 5 of 6 vs the Yanks and coast.

I agree. Last year's team won 6 in a row starting August 12th and then won 4 out of 6. We did end up playing the Yanks in 7 of our last 17 games. BAL & TOR were both 89-73 last year and we played them 13 of the last 23 games. 20 of our last 23 games were vs NYY, BAL & TOR, and though the Yanks were just 84-78 last year, they were pretty good going into SEPT (14-8 to end AUG and 7-2 to start SEPT). Once we reach Sept 4th, I think we have it easier than 2016. Although we end up with 4 at home vs HOU, they will have clinched by then and may be resting starters. Before that last series we play 0 vs the NYY (after 9/4), 6 vs TBR, 6 vs TOR, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs OAK and 3 @ CIN. The stretch from now to Sept 3 is very tough. It certainly helped to have a nice streak before this... 2 @ TBR 3 @ NYY 1 v CLE (make-up) 2 v StL 3 v NYY 4 @ CLE 3 v BAL 3 @ TOR 4 @ NYY Man O Man!

The first FT opening for a prospect, not surprisingly, turned out to be 3B. Devers has done a marvelous job so far, since his call-up. I can't imagine any current prospects ever leap-frogging him at 3B, but Rafael might eventually be moved to 1B (see below). HE certainly will not be moved to 1B, so Chavis can play 3B, and I doubt Dalbec ever get good enough to move Devers off 3B. No, I think Devers is our 3Bman for a long time. 1B (or DH, if we can trust HRam to play 1B FT next year- I don't) is the next FT position open for the Sox. My guess is we sign or trade for a big bat FA this winter. I can't see us counting on HRam at 1B/DH and some sort of major input from Sam Travis, Michael Chavis, Bryce Brentz, Jeremy Barfield or Josh Ockimey. (Devers and Dalbec could also eventually move to 1B, if we ever got a 3Bman that blocked them.) It's a nice list of choices, but most are at least a half year away to count on for 2018. No other FT positions should be open, but there should be some hefty competition for the bench positions: IF: Holt, Hernandez, Lin and Marrero all have a shot at maybe one 25 man roster slot and 3 forty man roster slots. (I'm assuming Rutledge is toast.) Since Holt is the best in-house solution for our 4th OF'er opening, 2 or even 3 of these guys might be on the 25 man roster for much of 2018. I'd love to see us get a big bat 1Bman and bring Nunez back, but that might be wishful thinking. (Nunez could also DH while HRam plays 1B.) OF: Holt is JF's pet favorite, so I think he wins this slot over Brentz or Barfield. I doubt they try to move Chavis to LF, unless he bombs at the 1b experiment. I'm not convinced by Castillo's decent season for him to get a legitimate chance due to his high luxury tax cost. Danny Mars and Jeremy Barfield and maybe A Tavarez have an outside chance, but I think it will be Holt. (Swihart remains a long shot 4th OF option.) C: I think Leon will remain the back-up to Vaz. Swihart has an outside chance and maybe Butler will sign another minor league deal with us. Procyshen is too far away as is Flores. Our pitching staff likely will lose A Reed, Abad, Fister and Boyer. With Carson Smith and Thornburg on the 2018 radar, we may not seek outside help with our pen. The return of Steven Wright should also allow for a SP'er to begin the season in the pen. Here's how I see our pen shaping up next season, assuming all are healthy: RP1 Kimbrel RP2 Smith RP3 Thornburg RP4 J Kelly RP5 Barnes RP6 Wright RP7 Hembree (out of options) RP8 Workman RP9 Scott RP10 Maddox RP11 Taylor RP12 Martin RP13 B Johnson RP14 J Beeks RP15 N Ramirez, R Elias or H Owens (if they are still on the roster) Our SP'ers are all set until Pomeranz becomes a FA after 2018, and we might have Wright set to take his place. There's also Johnson, Beeks or maybe Groome as 2019 options at the 5 slot on the rotation. What are your thoughts?

You're probably right, but we could back end the deal to discourage that, or just keep is even and let him walk after 6. 6 is better than 3.

We're 63-49. Last year, we were 2 games worse (61-51). All this despite.... Betts having a worse OPS than any of his first 3 seasons: .805 2017 .812 2014 .820 2015 .897 2016 He's 92 points worse than last year. Bogey having his worst year since 2014. .776 2015 .802 2016 .740 2017 He's 62 points worse than last year Bradley having his worst year since 2014. .832 2015 .835 2016 .766 2017 He's 69 points worse than last year HRam is 97 points worse than last year Pedey is 34 points lower and injured. Beni only had 118 PAs last year, but he's 65 points below last year's OPS. Leon was expected to decline and is 163 points lower. Vaz is the only regular or semi-regular Sox returnee to have a better OPS this year, and it's by 116 points. Carson Smith has yet to pitch for the Sox in 2017. Thornburg never pitched a pitch. Our Cy Young winner, Porcello, has pretty much stunk up the place. Our $30 million dollar man, Price, has been hurt and ineffective. We lost our 5th starter, Wright, very early in the season. With all this seemingly going wrong, we're still better than last year's team at this time! I don't think it's being overly optimistic to thing maybe some of these minuses could turn into pluses over the next 2+ months. I'm very hopeful.

Maybe. The offer is really $250+M/7 after the arb years are taken away, and I said I might go higher. He might laugh, but about $35M a year is pretty hefty and he gets the security 3 years before he becomes a FA. That takes away a lot of the risk for him. I'm sure the Legacy Agency will know what to do. (They'd probably say "no".)

He'll be looking for 10-12 years not 3, but if that's what he wanted, you're probably right. My point was that if you are going to give $133M/3, why not add 4 more years at $117M? Assuming his 3 arb years count as $50M, that would be $300M/10 in total. $29M a year is a bargain compared to $45M a year.

It's not the one I would do, but I thought it might be one JF could be talked into. Mine would be... 1. Nunez DH 2. Pedey 3. Beni vs R/HRam v L 4. Betts 5. Devers 6. HRam v R/Young v L 7. JBJ v R/ Bogey v L 8. Bogey v R/ JBJ v L 9. Vaz

I didn't know that was a set team philosophy.

I'd be fine with Pedey or Nunez up 1st. I'd bat Betts 4th, but 2nd would be okay. 1. Pedey 2. Beni 3. Nunez 4. Betts 5. HRam 6. Devers 7. JBJ 8. Bogey 9. Vaz I might even flip Devers with HRam.

Your guys got Alonso for Boog Powell. Looks like Phelps might be damaged goods. Glad we passed on him.