moonslav59

Agree, and Vaz has been great with other pitchers (like Pom). Looking at the numbers below, it's obvious we are going with a near total pitcher-caddy system. I've always been a huge believer in how much a catcher influences a pitcher's success or not. The old CERA arguments got out of hand as many used the numbers inappropriately. CERA should not be used to compare catcher across the league or from different teams and different years. That being said, here are the Sox CERA numbers: (Note: some small sample sizes here due to the personal caddy nature of our catcher usage.) CERA (IP) Leon vs Vaz 2.19 (156)/ 13.50 (5.1) with Sale [Note: 3.02 w Flowers (552), 2.51 w AJP (226), 3.53 Avila (112)]P 4.59(139)/ 7.11 (6.1) with Porcello [Career: 4.09 (273) Leon, 4.55 (113 Swihart), 3.86 (100) Vaz, 4.17 Avila (578), 4.32 (296) Laird, 5.38 (82) Holaday] 13.50 (4)/ 3.01 (117) with Pomeranz [Career: 3.01 (117) Vaz, 7.12 Leon (24), 3.32 (41) Holaday, 1.99 (131) Norris, 5.73 (71) Rosario] 4.55 (87)/ 4.55 (87), Hanigan 3.78 (50), 4.08 (71) Swihart w ERod (career only) 3.23 (109)/ 4.30 (163) w Price career only [2.85 (473) Molina, 3.06 (191) Jaso, 3.61 (162) Shoppach, 3.09 (128) Navarro] 1.74 (21)/ 4.32 (33) w Barnes [Career: 4.32 (60) Leon, 3.30 (60) Vaz, 4.50 (30) Swihart, 5.93 (27) Swi] 2.16 (25)/ 4.38 (25) w Hembree [Career: 3.69 (46) Leon, 3.71 (51) Vaz, 1.83 (20) Hanigan, 1.20 (15) Swi] 1.64 (22)/ 1.35 (27) w Kimbrel [Career: 2.38 (42) Leon, 1.62 (44) Vaz, 1.82 (158) McCann, 2.06 (48) Gattis, 2.01 (45) Norris, 0.00 (41) D Ross!!!] Career Only: Kelly 2.67 (27) Leon, 2.62 (55) Vaz, 2.81 (176) Molina, 4.83 (91) Hanigan, 4.44 (77) T Cruz, 5.10 (60) Swihart, 3.94 (32) D Ross Abad 6.23 Leon (17), 2.59 (24) Vaz, 4.22 (43) Castro, 2.75 (36) Suzuki, 2.06 (35) Norris, 3.03 (30) Vogt

Henry's willingness to spend big has been a significant factor in our success. I'll never second guess his spending philosophy. We've been over or near the luxury tax every year he's been at the helm. I do think he cares about our spending, even if it just for image sake. He probably doesn't want to be viewed as a winner just because he could out spend everyone else. It' likely more fulfilling to win as the 3rd to 6th highest paid team, but I'm just projecting my thought here. The history is that we stay near the limit and have some sort of priority to avoid paying high luxury taxes. We finished in last place in 3 out of 4 years. If spending was not a factor, we'd have signed more than just Price. I'm operating under the assumption that we will stay near the limit, until I see otherwise. I do think re-setting the tax this year will allow us to go over by a significant amount in 2018 and maybe even 2019, but I seriously doubt we go over the second penalty limit ($237M next year). I agree that going from the 28th to 38th pick is not a big factor, but that would be on top of a major tax once we reach the 50% level of taxation I think we can field a very highly competitive team over the next two years by just going over the luxury tax limit by $19.9M and no more. Once we reach 2020, we'll likely be at the 50% tax bracket with some big financial decisions to be made. With a much more difficult system for rich teams to rebuild their farms, I'm guessing we hit some hard times by 2021. If Henry didn't go nutty after 3 last place finishes, I doubt he will after a nice 4 year stretch (2016-2019).

True. Good time to have a career year. He has had a decent OPS+ recently, and that will play into a nice payday as well 2015: 107 OPS+ 2016: 103 2017: 115 (98 w SFG/ 224 w BOS)

It's a sign of cluelessness. I think he might be worse than I think, because I am usually one to blame the manager for much of anything. When we made him the new manager, I thought he'd be good. This isn't some personal vendetta I've held towards him. I never get a feeling that JF has contributed to a win. Maybe my way of looking at team management has changed recently, but I don't think so. This team is severely lacking in fundamentals. There's no end in sight. It's almost like we are making more mental mistakes as the year goes on. I get that the manager hardly matters as you imply, and that's why I say we are winning despite JF. We've had big injuries this year. I don't really even blame JF for just about every batter doing worse than last year, but I suppose it could be his lack of action, or lack of pro-activity, or his choice of coaches. We've been winning anyways. I just don't see any of our winning being attributed to JF's brilliance.

Our players can't even keep track of how many outs there are. That's just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to mistakes in fundamentals this team has demonstrated. It's a reflection of poor management. True, you don't fire a manager during a hot streak, but the recent winning stretch doesn't change the underlying fact that this team, even when winning is showing a strikingly high level of mental mistakes. I don't give credit to JF for the great play by Devers and Nunez. I'm glad he moved both up quickly in the line-up, so maybe he's finally smelling the coffee a little bit, but win or lose, JF is not a good manager. I wouldn't can him now. I'm not sure who is out there right now, but if we go on to lose 6 or 7 in a row, the dump JF posters will come out again. Should these decisions really be affected by a 7 game winning or losing streak? JF is not a good manager. In my opinion, it's crystal clear. Even winning a ring this year will not change my opinion, but it will mean JF will be back next year (and maybe longer).

Someone said the reason Jf had Holt bat second the other day was so others could stay in their comfort zone by remaining in their normal batting slot. The line-ups have been jumbled all year. Hardly anyone has stayed in the same slot. That's not my issue. I'm not big on the philosophy that batters do better when they know what slot they will bat in all year long. The line-up issues I have problems with is that the players he has kept in slots the longest didn't belong there. He kept Moreland batting 4th and 5th when the whole world could see he was struggling. What was that based on? 6-8 weeks of hot hitting? Moreland's whole career screamed of being a platoon batter for the 7-8 slot, yet JF kept him FT way too long and batting 4th or 5th way, way, way too long. I have issues with Betts batting first when he sees so few RBI opportunities and our team has such a lack of power, but at least Betts gets more PAs. Injuries and slumps have played a role in some changes, but here's a look at our batting slots: GS'd 1st 81 Betts 18 Pedey 9 Bogey 4 Holt (WTF!) 1 Nunez 2nd (Some studies show best overall hitter goes here) 50 Beni 49 Pedey 4 Nunez & Young 3 Holt (WTF!) 1 JBJ & Rutledge (WTF!) 3rd 60 Bogey (stayed here too long as he slumped) 26 Betts 13 Pedey 8 Beni 4 Nunez 1 JBJ & Young 4th 50 HRam 40 Moreland 17 Beni 1 Beni & Nunez 5th 32 HRam 28 Moreland 15 JBJ 12 Beni & Young 5 Devers 4 Bogey 3 Travis 2 Pablo 6th 27 JBJ 22 Bogey 16 Moreland 13 Young 9 Beni 8 HRam 5 Pedey & Travis 3 Rutledge 2 Devers 1 Selsky, Leon, Vaz 7th 35 JBJ 14 Rutledge 12 Pablo 11 leon & Vaz 9 Young 8 Moreland 4 Travis 3 Bogey 2 Holt & Marrero 1 Marco & Beni 8th 32 Vaz 30 Leon 12 Pablo 10 JBJ 7 Rutledge 5 Young & Marrero 4 Lin 3 Marco 2 Moreland & Holt 1 Devers 9th 36 Marrero 14 Vaz & Marco 13 Leon 10 Lin 8 Holt 5 JBJ 4 Devers 1 Rutledge 2 ERod, 1 5 other pitchers Looking at some individual players: Moreland: 40 GS up 4th .725 OPS 28 GS up 5th .733 That's 68 games out of our 113 games! More than half of our games with a career .754 OPS guy and 99+ OPS+ (2017 OPS: .754 and 97 OPS+) 16 GS up 6th .818 10 GS up 7th and 8th Sorry, but this is, at best, borderline insanity. I get that he carried us for much of the first 3 months. He was one of the few players that over-performed to start the year, but he started returning to career form around June 27th. Moreland hit 4th for 6 days in a row in early July and 11 games out of 15 games from july 4th to 21st. JF moved him to 5th, 6th or 7th starting on the 23rd. That's almost a month of foot-dragging due to apparent loyalty or "rewards program" based on previous (perhaps outlier) success. JBJ has been hot and cold this year, but his OPS is about equal to HRam's and better than Moreland and Bogey's. 35 GS up 7th .792 27 GS up 6th .868 15 GS up 5th .480 10 GS up 8th .888 5 GS up 9th .650 (despite "protection" from Betts, I might add) I don't get batting JBJ 8th or 9th, when he's been a top 5 or 6 hitter this year. (At one point he had our 2nd best OPS but was not moved up.) Bogaerts 60 GS up 3rd .785 (with very little power) 22 GS up 6th 9 GS up 1st .839 (seemed like a good slot for a high OBP low SLG guy) 4 GS up 5th .450 3 GS up 7th .385 (finally moved down during slump) 1 GS up 2nd .250 He had an OPS above .840 for much of the end of May and remained over .800 all June, but then he had started slumping in June. JF waited until July 17th to move Bogey down, and even then he put him 5th. He's just about our worst power guy. Moving Betts to lead-off has already been beaten to death. This isn't Monday morning quarterbacking on my part. I've been saying this from the start.

The glove must add 4-6 inches, but I doubt that ball was 11.8 ft.

Chris Sale is the 8th wonder of the world, but he is not invincible. More to the point, you want him pitching on short rest when the available evidence says he gets better with an extra day of rest. When you get to the playoffs and reach certain critical points, sometimes you have to look at more than just Sale's numbers on certain day's rest. You have to look at possibilities of us being eliminated with Sale never pitching again and is Sale on 3 or 4 days rest better than Porcello, ERod or Price on 4 or 5 days rest, and do we really need this game right now. By the way, here are Sale's numbers with various days rest: 4 days rest (69 GS) 32-24 3.05/1.066 WHIP 5 days rest (77 GS) 40-19 3.23/1.019 Sale actually does better with 4 vs 5 days off. Note: 6+ days off (24 GS) 12-7 1.88/ 0.978

Pedro was a pretty good fielder and was a true "gamer", but he was too short to make that play. ESPN said that ball was 11.8 ft high.

My guess is, if we want to keep this current team mostly together and highly competitive, we will be going over the luxury tax in 2018, 2019 and 2020. We may be close to that $20M level of penalty by 2019 or 2020 due to heavy arb raises and trying to keep Kimbrel, Pom and Sale. Can we sustain all these penalties? Sure, if Henry wishes to, but if we reach the secondary penalty levels, our already low draft picks could be even lower, and rebuilding becomes that much more difficult.

The new CBA has taxes, extra surcharge taxes, and extra penalties. The limit (not "cap") next year is $217M. If a team goes over that limit, they pay a 12% tax plus a "luxury tax" of 20% year 1, 30% year 2 or 50% year 3 (consecutive). So, the tax is actually: Year 1: 32% Year 2: 42% Year 3: 62% That's on all money over the limit- not the whole budget.) Next comes the "surcharge": if a team goes over the limit by $20M or more, there is an additional charge on that money only, of %42.5% year 1 and 45% year 2. It's possible to see a situation where a team pays over 80% or even 100% on certain moneys spent above certain limits. These numbers are not something even filthy rich people shrug their shoulders at, unless the team is just going over some of these limits by a tiny amount. A 107% tax on 2 million is not going to break a guy like Henry, of even scare him that much, but those dollars are above and beyond a massive amount of taxes already paid before reaching the maximum penalties. Here's the scariest part: beginning in 2018, there will be an extra penalty for teams in that second category. A team that spends above $20M over the luxury limit, it will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots. If the Sox move down from the 28th pick to the 38th, it won't kill us, but it could further affect our ability to rebuild for 2020 and beyond, which is what this thread is about.

Nunez OPS+ in recent years ... (starting with 2017 and going backwards) 115 (224 with Sox) 103 107 Other Sox players: Betts:109, 133, 117 J B J: 100, 118, 119 Bogey: 96, 111, 107 Pedey: 107, 117, 112 HRam: 101, 126, 89 Moreland: 97, 88, 116 FYI: Big FA Bats for this winter? 1B Hosmer: 126, 101, 122 Alonso: 141, 89, 109 L Duda: 155, 91, 130 Santana: 102, 123, 102 Morrison: 141, 100, 92 3B Moustakas: 119, 108, 119 OF (DH) JD Martinez: 157, 144, 139 Upton: 133, 108, 119 Bruce: 118, 112, 97 Best bats available are probably Duda, Martinez or Hosmer with Upton and Moustakas as the only 5 guys with 2 out of the last 3 seasons having an OPS+ at 119 or above or one of the last 3 seasons above 150. If we could sign Duda and Nunez, I feel our offense would look very good next year. I'd prefer JD Martinez, but I don't see him playing 1B, if HRam needs to DH only. If we want to get out of HRam's vesting option we could basically platoon him at DH with Nunez. 2018: 1. Pedey 2B 2. Nunez DH v R/LF v L 3. Duda 1B 4. Betts RF 5. Devers 3B v R/ HRam 1B v L 6. Beni LF v R/ Bogey SS v L 7. JBJ CF R/ Devers 3B v L 8. Bogey SS v R/ JBJ CF v L 9. Vaz (Leon) Bench: Beni (v L) or HRam (v R) Holt Hernandez, Marrero, Lin or Brentz Leon

Looking at how we could see Sale get the maximum amount of playoff starts without pitching on short rest, except for the WS going 7 games, here's what I came up with: The Div Series goes 3 games: Sale, Pom, off, Porc, 4 days off The Champ Series goes 5 games: Sale, Pom, off, Porc, Erod, Sale, 5 days off The WS goes 7 games: Sale, Pom, off, Porc, Sale (short rest), ERod, off, Pom (+1), Sale (short rest) Total games started: 6 Sale 4 Pom 3 Porc 2 ERod

I'm very optimistic about our chances this year, despite the Dodgers looking indestructible this year. I'm glad they are in the NL.

I'm not saying managers can't and don't make a difference. I'm saying depending on JF to suddenly begin helping this team with the choices he makes is not something I believe will happen. I don't think tigers change their stripes, at least overnight.

Good read, but the article is about optimism for 2017 not 2020 and beyond, which is what this thread is about.

I don't think Betts will come close to $400M/10 let alone $500M. My idea was to try to lock him up this winter. The arb years would likely cost $45-50M anyways, so roll those numbers and years into a 10 or 12 year offer. This would help lower the overall AVV and luxury tax cost after the 3 year arb window ends, which happens to be when we will be hitting a wall with the tax budget. People keep saying, "There is no cap." This is correct, but there are very extreme penalties for going $20-30M over the luxury tax limit that involves lowering draft slots and restricting international draft pool money. I seriously doubt any team will ever reach that penalty limit. We will be able to go over the luxury limit without major penalties for a couple years, but once we reach year 3 and 4, with all the expensive arbs and re-signings needed, every dollar will likely count. Back to Betts, if he's worth $35-40M per year after his 3 arb years are over, then we may end up losing him, but I'd try to get him to go for the instant security of signing a 10 year deal this winter. $45M for the 3 arb years combined + $35M x 7 years after arb= $290M/10. make it $300M/10, and maybe he'll bite. Include a $20M signing bonus, so he can live mega-large sooner rather than later. If he says no, I might negotiate higher or offer other perks like an opt out after 4 or 5 years and bonuses based on high performances. If he says no to that, then we'll have to just see what happens in 3 years. I might look to lock up JBJ and sale, if Betts says no.

I don't have them anymore. My old computer s*** the bed and I lost everything. Years ago, I did a study of how the pitcher did when pitching the day after Wake vs the same team. I compared his game ERA with his yearly ERA that season. I know, it's kind of a crude study, but I went back over Wake's entire career with Boston, so the sample size was rather large. There was a significant differential between post Wake games vs non post Wake games. I think it was just under a run per game.

I think every pitcher should be exposed to both catcher for enough time to gain a "comfort level". One example that irked the hell out of me was when VTek was used with Beckett almost exclusively, but when the playoffs started, the manager decided he wanted more offense, and so he started VMart at catcher. I'm not saying VMart was the reason Beckett got lit up, but I hated the choice (before it happened).

Why assume he suddenly will start "helping"?

Tito did have extreme loyalty, but he had a brain. He lost the team at the end. I don't blame him for maybe being distracted. I did not call for Tito's removal. I was the last to call for Bobby V's removal, so it's not like I'm the kind of guy who wants to fire every manager. I wanted JF gone long ago, and this winning stretch does not change a thing. Just because some stupid moves happen to work (in bunches at times) doesn't mean the choices were smart.

I think Reed is our #2 and Barnes is our #3. It looked like Kelly had won the #2 slot before he went on the DL. I wonder, if he can pass Barnes again before the end of this season.

Two years ago, Young was signed to $6.5M x 2 to be our 4th Of'er and platoon DH/OF vs LHPs. My guess is Nunez, who should start FT next year (maybe at various positions) will get more than $13M/2. I'd love to have Nunez back, but we may spend too much on a big bat 1Bman this winter, and I'm not sure how much Henry is willing to go over the tax limit. The tax will be low next year, so maybe 2018 will be the year we go way over. It might be hard to sign impact players to one year deals, and once we get to 2019 and beyond, the budget and tax are much more tricky.

Sometimes you can even go with 3 starters, but today's playoff schedules have less days off than in the past. If you finish a series early, you can come back with your top 3 to start the next series, which helps skew the total numbers towards your top 2-3 starts getting more starts. The first round (assuming no WC playoff game is needed) goes like this: 2 games day off 2 games day off 1 game day off (assuming it goes 5 games) ALCS starts: 2 games 1 day off 3 games 1 day off 2 games 2 days off (assuming a 7 game series) 2 games 1 day off 3 games 1 day off 2 games So, let's assume our starters are ranked as such: Sale Pomeranz Porcello Price-ERod We might see this: 1 Sale 2 Pom day off 3 Porc 4 ERod (or Sale -1 day rest) day off 5 Sale (+1 rest) day off (assuming 5 game win) 1 Pom 2 Porc day off 3 Sale 4 ERod 5 Pom day off 6 Porc 7 Sale day off day off WS begins 1 Pom 2 Sale day off 3 Porc (+2 rest) 4 ERod 5 Pom (or Sale -1 rest) day off 6 Sale (+1) 7 Porc Total playoff games started, assuming every series goes to the final game: 6 Sale 4 Pom 4 Porc 3 ERod or Price

I've always been a huge believer in how much a catcher influences a pitcher's success or not. The old CERA arguments got out of hand as many used the numbers inappropriately. CERA should not be used to compare catcher across the league or from different teams and different years. That being said, here are the Sox CERA numbers: (Note: some small sample sizes here due to the personal caddy nature of our catcher usage.) CERA (IP) Leon vs Vaz 2.19 (156)/ 13.50 (5.1) with Sale [Note: 3.02 w Flowers (552), 2.51 w AJP (226), 3.53 Avila (112)]P 4.59(139)/ 7.11 (6.1) with Porcello [Career: 4.09 (273) Leon, 4.55 (113 Swihart), 3.86 (100) Vaz, 4.17 Avila (578), 4.32 (296) Laird, 5.38 (82) Holaday] 13.50 (4)/ 3.01 (117) with Pomeranz [Career: 3.01 (117) Vaz, 7.12 Leon (24), 3.32 (41) Holaday, 1.99 (131) Norris, 5.73 (71) Rosario] 4.55 (87)/ 4.55 (87), Hanigan 3.78 (50), 4.08 (71) Swihart w ERod (career only) 3.23 (109)/ 4.30 (163) w Price career only [2.85 (473) Molina, 3.06 (191) Jaso, 3.61 (162) Shoppach, 3.09 (128) Navarro] 1.74 (21)/ 4.32 (33) w Barnes [Career: 4.32 (60) Leon, 3.30 (60) Vaz, 4.50 (30) Swihart, 5.93 (27) Swi] 2.16 (25)/ 4.38 (25) w Hembree [Career: 3.69 (46) Leon, 3.71 (51) Vaz, 1.83 (20) Hanigan, 1.20 (15) Swi] 1.64 (22)/ 1.35 (27) w Kimbrel [Career: 2.38 (42) Leon, 1.62 (44) Vaz, 1.82 (158) McCann, 2.06 (48) Gattis, 2.01 (45) Norris, 0.00 (41) D Ross!!!] Career Only: Kelly 2.67 (27) Leon, 2.62 (55) Vaz, 2.81 (176) Molina, 4.83 (91) Hanigan, 4.44 (77) T Cruz, 5.10 (60) Swihart, 3.94 (32) D Ross Abad 6.23 Leon (17), 2.59 (24) Vaz, 4.22 (43) Castro, 2.75 (36) Suzuki, 2.06 (35) Norris, 3.03 (30) Vogt