moonslav59

Max, I'm not talking about running into an out at 3B on a GB with a shift on. I can recognize times when it may not be an open and shut case of stupidity. I can't recall what game it was, but it wasn't long ago when Beni ran to 3B on a grounder hit in front of him. That was a sure fire bonehead mistake that led to an out. It wasn't the only time we've done that and others I've mentioned. I'm fine with some one thinking it wasn't likely we lost many games due to these blunderes, but I get the feeling you don't even think we've made any more than normal. Please, correct me if I am wrong on this assumption about your beliefs. I mentioned the game we lost when Holt held onto the ball as the winning run scored (just barely). Surely, using your methodology, that blunder cost us a game. Do you remember the game? If so, I'm interested in your thoughts on that game.

700 added one that has happened more than once... Running with your head down without noticing that the lead runner is returning to the base that you are running toward. I'm sure there are more I haven't remembered.

I wish I had kept track of every mental blunder. It's impossible to go back now, since many of the plays are not captured in box scores or play-by-play listings. Some weren't even called errors. There is a program that gives the odds of a team winning at any given point in a game. It's not perfect for sure, and it only gives the odds of a team winning or losing. It would be interesting to see how many actual times a single bonehead play turned the odds from probable winning to probable losing. This wouldn't help in the several games with 2 or more blunders, but it would be an interesting study- had someone kept track. Plus, I'm sure there would be some debate about some plays I might call a mental blunder, but others might see it as a physical blunder. This has been an interesting debate. The "what ifs" in baseball has always been one part of the game that often adds interest.

And by the way, even though I think nothing can be proved and that no game is 100% won or lost on one play, I did provide an example of losing a game on a blunder- the one where Holt held onto the ball as the winning run barely crossed the plate in time. No response from Max or others on that one. Is that so-called "proof"? I think not, but using Max's methodology, it could be (As I do not believe there is certain proof of anything when changing one play in a game.)

Saying it is "outlandish" is outlandish. Also, I never used the Yankee game as an example of a game lost by a blunder, so Max proved nothing , even if his evidence proved we could not have won that game- which it didn't. Probably 4-5 games is more likely than 6-10, but one never knows. Games seem to get out of hand once a cascade begins. To think none of our blunders have cost us a game is way more "outlandish" than thinking "MATBE" is cost us 4-5 games and pretty certainly 1-2.

Our pitching and defense is certainly our strength, but a boost from the offense could be what really is needed to get us through some playoff games. I'm not very hopeful this will happen, so I am relying on our strength areas to carry us. Crossing my fingers.

I think he likely needs surgery too, but I'm no doctor. (Even doctors may disagree on what treatment is needed.)

True, but if you get 550+ PAs, it's hard to think ot you as a sub, especially if you get more PAs than someone considered FT. If we sign Nunez and a 1Bman, I coudl see him getting more PAs at DH than anyone else, so i suppose one could call him our DH. (HRam might have something to say about that.)

I think we may be able to afford one mega FA signing like Mostakas and then maybe a mid tier one like Nunez. The arb raises and raises to Sale and others all add up. I guess we could trade some of our higher priced players, but then we'd have another hole to fill.

Well said. Yes, some declines are expected from one year to the next, but not like this. A little more luck with injuries and just half our hitters declining would have put near the best record in the AL.

You mean Travis not Shaw. I mess that up all the time, too. I'd be fine with HRam/Travis at 1B, if we picked up a major bat at DH, but I feel like HRam is best suited for DH next year. IBTW, 'm not hoping for a HRam injury. Possible 2019 FAs of interest: 1B: AGon, Joe Mauer, Matt Adams, Marwin Gonzalez, J Smoak 2B: B Dozier, D Murphy (Move Pedey to DH?) SS: Segura, E Andrus (maybe), Iggy (Maybe trade Bogey?) 3B: Beltre, Donaldson, Machado (WOW- big 3 here! maybe move Devers to 1B?) OF (DH): Bryce Harper- Adam Jones (move Beni to DH?), Markakis, N Cruz Pence, Chisenhall, SP: Keuchel, Pom, Ryu

It very well could be just 1-2 games. I happen to feel it pretty much has to be more, but the exact number can never be proven. I think the odds are surely in favor of us losing 1-2 games instead of zero, and I strongly believe it's closer to 4 or 5 than zero or 1.

I said, "I believe" it costs us games. How can dozens and dozens of blunders not cause runs to be given up? It's possible many runs can be given up and never cost a game, but the odds are stongly against that when you see the sheer magnitude of mental mistakes we've made. I've said over and over, it is all conjecture. It seems to me, Max feels like he proved we could not have possibly lost that Yankees game with a change in one play. I've stated nothing can be proven. I see a major difference in our claim presentations.

Nobody can stay 100% focused 100% of the time. It's expected that everyone make a blunder here and there. Several Sox players have not had more than their "quota". Others have done much worse.

Great point, cp. It's easy to get frustrated over mental blunders. That frustration builds and builds with each occurrence. It's one thing to not have running or defensive skills: it's another to have them and squander them by lack of focus or mental lapses. Past Sox teams have been slow and poor on defense. I expected losses from those areas. This team has very good to excellent fielders at almost all positions. We have decent base runners, and I'm not talking SBs only. We've squandered some of those skills-- maybe not enough to make those areas a net loss, but we've prevented more runs or less runs allowed, and by assumption lost games, by not fully capitalizing on these two "strength" areas.

Maybe 10 is pushing it, but I firmly believe it cost us at least 4-5 games. Like I said, no one play costs us any game. Maybe a grand slam in a 0-0 game gets a big chunk of the credit- having a major impact on the odds of winning, but many plays contribute to a win or a loss, and changing one play, even if it seems like a little mistake at the time, can (not always) have a major impact on the odds of winning or losing. It changes who leads off th next inning and the ones after that. It changes the pitch count and possibly the choice of pitches to be thrown next. It may not be like a butterfly flapping its wings in China, but at times, it could be. To dismiss it out of hand, especially when we have seen dozens and dozens of mental mistakes on this team is just not something I can ever support. Sure, it's possible we might have only lost 1-2 games as a result of mental mistakes, but I'm thinking 4-5 is on the light side. For all those who preach how attitude, club house atmosphere and intangibles make a difference in winning or losing, there's nothing like a bonehead play to take the wind out of a team's sails. An error is bad enough. An error of neglect or lack of focus can be an negatively influencing force on a team. I'm not even speaking to that: I'm speaking to bonehead plays actually stopping rallies (or helping along opponent rallies with defensive blunders) and losing us games directly or indirectly. Blunders on defense have been more plentiful than on the base paths. We all know defensive mistakes are not always counted as errors, especially mental ones. We all agree, some of our "errors" have been mental blunders. Throwing to the wrong base, forgetting how many outs there are and many other types of mental mistakes have taken place this year. Look at the best pitching teams in MLB and the differential between runs and unearned runs. I'm not dissing our defense. Overall, it has been very good or even great, but defense blunders have certainly caused us games. Runs/Unearned Runs (differential) LAD 494/464 (30) CLE 511/480 (31) AZD 553/494 (59) WSH 574/528 (36) NYY 579/524 (55) BOS 581/533 (48) As you can see, we do not have the worst R/ER differential, but the teams that have worse also have much worse defenses. We have a very good defense that happens to allow too many unearned runs. To me, although some could see this as a "stretch", this shows mental mistakes has cost us runs. It's impossible to think enough runs have been scored off defensive blunders to cause at least one loss. Defensive rankings of best pitching teams UZR/150 2. LAD 6. BOS 8. CLE 11. WSH 18. NYY 28. AZ DRS 1. LAD 4. BOS 9. NYY 10. CLE 17. AZ 25. WSH As you can see, the other teams that allowed more unearned runs have much worse defenses than us. I can only assume our "extra" unearned runs are a result of blunders not poor defensive skills. Maybe I'm assuming wrongly, but my eye test confirms the numbers.

That's another one that has happened multiple times.

Exactly. I have no problem with aggressive base running, and I realize it will, at times, mean we run into outs. Sometimes there may be a thin line between good aggressive running and over aggressiveness that is borderline stupidity. I'm not talking about those plays at all. Not one of them. Running into an out at 3B when the grounder is hit in front of you is not aggressive base running: it's a blunder. Forgetting how many outs there are, even if it does not lead to an out is a blunder, but I'm only focused on blunders leading to outs (and likely loss of runs and games). Making the first or third out at 3B, especially when one run is needed may not always be a "blunder". Sometimes a weak- armed OF'er happens to make a perfect throw, or a runner stumbles. Most of the time, it's probably a blunder by the runner or 3B coach. Getting thrown out at home is usually not a blunder, but if you are thrown out by 15 or more feet, one has to wonder if someone made a mistake. Not running full speed is a mental mistake or blunder. Not going about a third of the way to the next base on a fly ball, in case it is dropped or misplayed is a blunder. I'm sure I'm forgetting some, but I've seen too much of the above to think this is normal. I realize personal observations can be biased. I try not to be, but I realize I can be. I have watched just about every single play of every single game for over 25 years. I know: I'm a freak. I really do believe I've never seen anything like this team and bonehead plays on the base paths and on defense. I could be wrong. i have no data to support my claims. But, I am 100% certain the odds are we have lost multiple games due to blunders this year.

The Sox are now tied with the Dodgers in Pitching WAR at 21.6. (The Guardians are 1st at an amazing 26.1.) Here are some other numbers: ERA- 77 CLE 78 AZ 80 LAD 83 BOS 86 NYY 87 WSH SIERA 3.52 CLE 3.65 LAD 3.75 HOU 3.79 BOS 3.81 NYY 3.90 AZ K/BB 3.74 CLE 3.51 LAD 3.43 BOS 3.05 NYY 3.02 HOU How about individual SPERs'? 170 pitchers have 60+ SP'er IP. Here's how some teams look: ERA- Rank BOS 6. Sale 63 22. Pom 74 30. Fister 79 34. Price 81 70. ERod 96 LAD 1. Kershaw 47 8. Wood 65 50. Hill 89 52. Ryu 90 55. Darvish 91 60. McCarthy 93 80. Maeda 99 CLE 3. Kluber 57 15. Clevinger 70 27. Carrasco 78 73 Bauer 98

Well said, and it's such an obvious and repeated flaw. Every Sox team and every other team makes mental blunders during every season. This Sox team has exceeded the norm and then some.

I doubt Swihart even makes the 25 man roster next year, and since he's out of options, so he'll be gone or on the DL. I'm not writing him off though. I seriously doubt we go into 2018 with Travis having a major role. Swihart has even less of a chance. I'll be super pissed, if we do nothing about our 1B/DH situation this winter.

I do find Kimmi's stats (not conjecture) on that subject informative. I like numbers and facts, so sue me. Kimmi's numbers only tell us that over the season we are at a net +1. It doesn't say whether we could be -3 in blunders and +4 in good running plays for a net +1 overall. Plus, even if the number was -3, I wouldn't say that is proof that blunders made it so. We're talking about changing a result of a play in the middle (or end) of a game, the ensuing results are impossible to predict. There are computer programs that figure out the chances of winning that game after every play, and I suppose someone could go back and find instances where a single blunder changed the odds from in favor to against, but even that wouldn't prove we lost a game. heck, i even believable it could be possible to have won a game we lost due to taking away a mistake we made. A lot can change after one play. A pitcher could be replaced, a PH'er used, a different pitch called. The possibilities are endless. It's absurd to think by analyzing what happened after a play and changing a play, you can prove what was going to happen next. Only God knows.

I have asked no one to analyze every game--way too hard. But I have asked for an analysis of just one game to show that a boneheaded play, baserunning or otherwise, cost us that game. I'm not going to make any claim that can't be proven. You shouldn't either. That being said, analyze the game where the winning run scored as Holt held onto the ball. Are you saying there was no way we lost that game because of a blunder? That's just one game, and since the play was at the end of the game, it stands out, but there are dozens more where one play could have increased our odds more than the one Yankee game you selected to prove your point about all games.

Look, I've never used that game as an example of a game lost by a blunder, but yes a 6-2 game could change to a win based on one play changed. We'll never know how that game would have unfolded. Your reference to 4 singles is not meaningless, but it proves nothing. CC would have pitched differently had Beni not been out. We really will never know. Chances are strong, we'd still have lost, but it's not 100% lock loss.

Exactly. Maybe not, but we'll never know. Plus, we might have handled our pitching changes differently with a different score. I'm not playing the "When a butterfly flaps his wings" argument here, but games can and do turn on single plays.