moonslav59

Other than Porcello's Cy Young season, he's been pretty consistent. Most notably, his IP'ed have been over 162 every season and between 170 and 205 every season but 2. His ERA has been between 3.96 to 4.92 in 7 of his 10 seasons and between 3.15 and 3.44 the other 3. His ERA- has been between 87 and 118 in 8 of his 10 seasons with his Cy Young and this season being the only two outside that range. One could argue that Porcello just got better. After his 87 ERA- his rookie year, 3 of his best 4 ERA- seasons have been in his last 3 seasons (72, 102, 80). He was at 89 in 2014. So, after his rookie year, 4 of his best 5 ERA- seasons came after 2013. 4 of his worst 5 came before 2014. He's not as up and down as some seem to think he is. Leak's numbers don't look as inconsistent as I thought it was. His IP'd has been fairly consistent (168-214 every year after his rookie season). His ERA and ERA- have yo-yo'd a little bit but not to a major extreme. Starting in 2011: ERA- 100 114 88 100 96 115 93 103 It's a pretty tight range, but every year it goes up-down-up...

We are now 13-2 in ERod starts. We were bound to lose one more eventually. Let's get 'em today!

This was just the list of all the players on losing teams with an .850+ OPS vs LHPs. Some here are "pie in the sky" as is Gennet, but my list was only meant to highlight the best players that are possibly available to fill our need area vs LHPs.

What an up and down career for Leake.

We are a strong contender. Very strong. That's my view, and a few bad stretches doesn't change a thing. With the Yanks in our division, maybe we will be a wild card team, but if we win 100 or so, there's no reason to hang our heads and get all pessimistic.

Yes, but they started out against some tough opponents. 12 of their first 15 games were against the Sox, Yanks and Phillies. 1-6 vs BOS 0-2 vs NYY 0-3 vs PHI 1-11 Total

Who kills lefties and plays on a team that is or will likely be out of it by the deadline? 2017-2018 OPS vs LHPs 1.015 Beltre .993 H Renfroe .990 J Abreu .979 E Suarez .977 R Chirinos .976 Avisail Garcia .973 N Castellanos .970 Donaldson .928 B Dozier .909 Merrifield .904 A Duvall .895 J Smoak .895 J McCann .894 K Morales .877 T d;Arnaud .871 J Soler .871 J Schoop .853 M Sano .852 Asdrubal Cabrera I'm not saying all of these guys are available, or that I want every player on this list, but hitting lefties is a big need area and some of these guys play OF, 2B and C (or can DH).

He's killing lefties this year (.969), but he has reverse splits over his career: .739 vs RHPs .680 vs LHPs I'd say, no going by the stats only.

What, no hope in another comeback?

My "whole point" was that many Sox hitters have been under-performing, but it doesn't seem like Yankee fans expect them to turn things around. Just Yankees are allowed to rebound, I guess. Last year, when I made the point that Vazquez was the only returning Sox player to not decline (or "underperform") I was met with the argument that maybe the 2017 Red Sox batter where who they really were, and that their previous year or two or three sample sizes or career norm my have been the true outlier. I never bought that idea. Of course, one should expect a few players to do better and a few to do worse and a few more to do about the same from year to year and even within any given season. I get that. There's certainly a good chance a few Sox will finish much below their career norms. I'm not arguing that every Sox player will be at or above their recent or career norm, although it might do some justice for 2017, but my point was that we certainly could see our 7-9 hitters, combined, doing a hundred or more points better over the rest of the season. That could make up for a possible 100 point drop from our three best hitters who appear to be too far above their norms. I expect Yankee players to do about the same-- to the good and to the bad.

Update on the Yankee 7-9 slot hitters: Last 3 games: 2 for 28 (after 7 innings today) Red Sox 11 for 28 over the last 2 games. The tide is turning.

Here's a look at some of the 1B & 3B options that were available this past winter and their 2018 OPS numbers .926 Matt Adams .910 Moreland .822 Valencia .807 Abreu .806 Hosmer .803 Sandoval .797 C Santana .786 Moustakas .783 Alonso .762 Reynolds .757 Donaldson .734 Freese .716 Duda .711 Longoria (.708 HRam) .708 Frazier .672 AGon .640 Valbuena .634 Morrison

Duda was my fall back. I preferred Moose and then LoMo, if the money was right. I did talk up Duda a lot. He's been a dud. I talked down Hosmer, and he's finally over .800, but he's on pace for 20 HRs and 75 RBIs. JD was clearly a better choice there.

Yes, I'm sure Devers will be fine. Here's a pessimist's cherry-picking view: .707 Moncada with CWS .708 Devers this year

The fact that I agree with you is making me start a complete re-evaluation of every truth I hold dear to my soul.

We were probably never going to spend over the $40M line, so I don't think we missed out on anything. Had we not signed JD, maybe we'd have gotten Lynn or Cobb. As much as I hated the early Moreland signing, it has already paid for itself. (And my guy Moose and your guy LoMo are slumping.)

It's been more than just 2 games, Jacko. Our bottom 3 in the order have been improving for over a month. Everyone but Holt has been way under their career or recent 2-3 year norms. Why is it so hard to think they might come back to the norm with more than half a season to go? Besides, they all don't have to get their seasonal OPS above .700 to make a big impact. If they all can combine to just hit .700 the rest of the wat, that would be an over 100 point gain on what they've done, so far on a team that is already leading MLB in runs scored. Yes, we may not end up with 4 guys over .900 as we currently have- or 5 guys over .840, but as they drop, the bottom 3 or 4 can easily take up the slack and appear to be heading in that direction for quite some time (with just JBJ & Nunez still struggling). Even a combined .700 the rest of the way would be below norms. I don't think I'm being a homer to expect it. BTW, I also expect Stanton & Sanchez to revert to their norms, so it's not about homerism.

It was a late signing season for just about every team and major player. There was no need to panic or worry as long as several options were still on the table.

I posted this on his thread.... Last 2 games 7-9 batters: 1 for 19 Yankees 11 for 28 Red Sox

Well said, and it baffles me how anyone would suggest we trade him...let alone for a rental.

So now maybe our rotation ain't the 2d best in the majors. A weeks or so ago the Sox had the third best ERA in MLB, and now they are 7th. The good news is they are still 3d best in the AL behind the Yankees and Astros. And they are #1 in MLB in runs scored. ERA- (or ERA+) is a much better tool on judging or ranking team pitching success. Leaving Wright in so long yesterday knocked us down a notch, but we are still 4th in MLB in ERA- 71 Astros 80 Cubs 81 Yankees 82 Red Sox 84 Brewers 87 Nats On offense, we've scored 15 more runs than the Yanks but have played 4 more games. They still edge us in runs scored per game.

I hate tiny sample sizes, but I have to throw this out there.... Last 2 games bottom 7-9 batting slots' OPS numbers: Yankees 1 for 19 Red Sox 11 for 28 The tide is turning.

Yes, what a bummer for JBJ, Maybe, we keep it going tomorrow.