moonslav59

He overcame Sale. He overcame turning a Cy Young winner into dirt. He overcame Vaz breaking out. He overcame squat. The team overcame all these issues and won, despite JF and all the bonehead plays.

Hard to tell with such a tiny sample size.

Good points. With Smith, Thornburg and Ross out all or most of the year, my expectations were very low for our pen. I give JF some of the credit for the pen doing much better than expectations. Withe Price being out much of the season, and Wright being out all year (maybe because of JF), I wouldn't give JF too much credit for their performance. Pom and Fister did better than expected, ERod about the same and Porcello worse. I get how blaming the manager for a massive offensive decline has its flaws, but I have to think he had some role in it, even if just a little. The great amount of fundamental and mental mistakes is mre easily attributed to the manager, but of course, the players and GM bear most of the brunt of criticism and praise.

There's only 2 guys in my dog house: JF and Holt. HRam is banging on the door to get in. Holt is doing his best to get out. Plus, Holt's issues are almost certainly injury-related.

Oversimplification. You're assuming we were a .500 team on paper and JF helped us win more than we lost.

I can see how someone might think the Yanks have the deepest pen in the AL. The Guardians have a deep one, too. With Price and Smith added to the Sox pen, one could claim they are close. Yanks pen: WHIP pitcher K/9 0.72 Green 13.4 0.73 Robertson 13.1 0.88 Warren 8.5 1.13 Chapman 12.3 1.22 Betances 15.1 1.29 Clippard 10.4 1.32 Kahnle 12.2 1.32 Shreve 11.5 Guardians 0.84 Miller 13.5 0.90 J Smith 10.2 (17 IP) 0.97 Olson 7.8 1.08 Goody 11.9 1.18 C Allen 12.2 1.20 Otero 5.7 1.20 Shaw 8.5 1.21 McAllister 9.4 Sox 0.58 Price 13.5 (8.2 IP) 0.68 Kimbrel 16.4 (YES! 16.4!!!) 0.87 Maddox 7.3 917.1 IP) 0.93 Reed 9.3 1.02 Scott 7.9 1.15 Workman 8.5 1.18 Abad 7.7 1.19 Kelly 7.9 1.25 Barnes 10.5 1.45 Hembree 10.2 Even the Astros have a few very good RP'ers: 0.86 Musgrove 8.9 (31 IP) 0.94 Devinski 11.2 0.97 Harris 10.4 1.04 Giles 11.9 1.32 Hoyt 12.0 1.34 Gregerson 10.3 1.39 Sipp 9.4 Team Stats IP 543 HOU 535 NYY 526 BOS 485 CLE WAR 9.1 NYY 8.4 CLE 6.8 BOS 4.5 HOU WHIP 1.15 CLE 1.17 BOS 1.17 NYY 1.28 HOU K/9 10.9 NYY 10.9 HOU 10.0 CLE 9.8 BOS K/BB 3.65 CLE 3.23 BOS 3.09 HOU 2.89 NYY ERA- 65 CLE 69 BOS 76 NYY 101 HOU

Then, we lost Ross- one of our unsung and most consistent RP'ers in recent years! (I actually made my claim before knowing Thornburg would miss the whole year and while thinking Smith might be back in July.)

Well said, cp. I have seen a reduction if "gaffs" and more focus since bringing up Devers and acquiring Nunez & Reed. The extra inning record attests to the grit this team has. JF deserves some credit for that, but I just can't help but feel that the combination of all the needless gaffs- not the ones caused by just being aggressive- and the massive fall-off from our returning hitters kept us from being the AL favorites and could easily lead to our playoff demise. The Price injury hurt, but the Guardians dealt with Salazar and Brantley injuries. The Astros had their fair share, too.

-No one knows what caused the hitting declines. I don't know on what basis these could be blamed on the manager. Yet, we give him credit for getting the most out of our pen and starters like Pom & Fister. let's just be consistent. Maybe JF's coaches play a role in the massive decline, but the buck stops with JF and DD. I'm not placing 100% of the blame on JF, but when all of ouyr top 8 hitters decline by more than 55 OPS points, and 6 decline by more than 100, I find it hard to believe that it feels like some of you guys don't place any blame on JF. Then, many jump to praise what he did with the pen (me included). -Rick Porcello won a Cy Young, yes, but has generally been a 4+ ERA pitcher. Porcello is on Ben. I loved the Cespedes-Porcello trade and extension. I still do. This season by Porcello is way out of whack with who the "real Porcello is". Counting Rick's first few years in the majors as 'who he is" is not really fair. The guy was brought up at a very young age. He just entered his prime last year. One should not have expected him to revert to his age 20-23 years at age 28. WHIP since age 24: 1.28 1.23 1.36 (1st year in BOS) 1.01 1.40 He's about 0.20 worse than his prior 4 year average. I wasn't expecting another Cy Young, but I do think expecting him to pitch like his last 4 year average as he enters peak prime was actually being conservative. -Wright can be pinned on Farrell, sure, but I have no idea what he had to do with Thornburg's injury. Word was there was some confusion over what his off season work-out regime was supposed to be. You're right, it might have been DD's fault or Thornburg's for misinterpreting what he was supposed to do. Apparently he was doing way more than he was supposed to do, and that's what led to the injury.

As I said, I have not been one to roast JF for in game decisions. I gave him enormous credit for his handling of the staff, especially the pen. I feel my approach has been "moderate". Overall, I think JF has been a negative influence on this team. I respect other people's opinions on this matter. There are some nice pluses JF brings to the team. My point is that if people are going to give JF credit for maximizing the production of our pen and starters like Pom and Fister, then he deserves some blame for the massive decline of basically our whole offense.

I thought about that, but one thing sways the decision. If we are down 2-1, we will pitch Sale in game 4. that leaves the game 2 starter ready to pitch game 5 on normal rest. That should be Pom not Porcello.

Since the last 4 games. Porcello blows Fister away in the last 4 starts, even though he has not looked very good in those 4 starts.

With 3 days off before game 1 and then 2 days off during the 5 game series, it's hard to imagine needing more than 11 pitchers (4 starters and 7 relievers). That being said, our starting 9 will not need to be PH for. We could PR for HRam, Pedey, Leon and Vaz. We could use defensive replacements for Devers and HRam, if he's at 1B, so maybe we don't need a 5 man bench as much as we might need that 8th RP'er- probably a lefty. Tough call. I guess with a sketchy 3 and 4 starters, we may need to go to the pen very early in Fenway and in back-to back games, so maybe you're right- an 8 man pen might be best.

Shows ho much I know. I felt the pen was our "weakest-not weak- link" going into 2017.

I wonder, if he needs surgery. He may forgo it, if the rehab time means he will miss part of 2018 and hurt his chances at vesting the option for 2019.

Theo, Ben, DD The draft Picks: Port: Lester >Cespedes> Porcello Theo: Pedey Ellsbury> Kopech> Sale Lowrie> Melancon> Holt Masterson & Hagadone> VMart> Barnes & Owens C Kelly> AGon> DLR/Webster>Miley>Smith Workman Ranaudo> R Ross Betts JBJ (Comp pick from losing Beltre) Shaw> Thornburg Barnes Swihart (Comp pick for Beltre) Owens N Ramirez Ben Maddox Marrero Johnson (Comp for Papelbon- Theo) Light (Comp for Papelbon)> Abad K Martin Kopech (Comp for Ellsbury-Theo) > C Sale Chavis Beni B Taylor DD J Groome, Dalbec, Chatham, Shawaryn Houck, Brannen, Netzer, Thompson, Scherff Some of the players we have now can be partially attributed to all three GMs or 2 of the 3. Even Port plays into our acquisition of Porcello. International Signings Theo Doubront> Marco Hernandez Bogaerts Margot> Kimbrel Ben Moncada > sale Castillo Devers Espinoza> Pomeranz Lin DD Velazquez Flores D Diaz L Mata Trades/Signings Theo Ben S Wright (L Anderson-Theo) Holt (Melancon & others) Hembree (Peavy Kelly (Lackey-Theo) ERod (Miller-Theo) HRam & Pablo Porcello (Cespedes R Ross (Ranaudo-Theo) DD Kimbrel (Margot, Guerra, Allen & Asuaje- Theo & Ben) Price Young Smith (Miley- Theo & Ben and Aro) Leon Pomeranz (Espinoza - Ben) Abad (Light) Moreland Boyer Fister Nunez, Reed & Davis As you can see, some of these acquisitions are very nuanced when considering who gets credit for us having them. All three GMs have a major role in the construction of today's roster.

8 of our 8 top returning hitters by 2016 PAs declined. Six of them by over 94 points. Our Cy Young winner is now our #5 starter. Wright and Thornburg were out injured all year due to dumb managerial decisions. Yes, I agree JF did an amazing job with our pen- the area I saw as our weakest link back in March. Yes, our starting pitching did well despite the loss of Price, Wright and the fantastic decline of Porcello. Yes, we played better with the additions of Devers, Nunez and Reed. Yes, we won the division 2 times in a row for the first time since 1915-1916. Yes, JF is the only Sox manager to win the division 3 times, but I do feel some context is needed. The 2013-2017 Yanks were not the Yanks that other managers were up against. We finished in last place in 2 of those 5 years. I hate to sound like a negative Nellie at a time when we should be celebrating, but hearing all the gushing over JF has brought me to the point of having to speak out for the "other side" of the argument.

We are not going to DFA HRam. It's highly unlikely we can find a trade partner either. HRam has been up and down for much of his last 6-7 years. I'm not giving up on the hope that he can have an up year in 2018. I'm not planning on it, and I think we need to plan on it not happening. I like the idea of signing JD Martinez to DH (maybe some 1B) and Nunez to cover 2B and DH. Under this plan, if HRam does have a good year, we can still play everyone. If not, we can cover it well.

No doubt, JF did a great job with the pitching staff. I wish he could go back to being our pitching coach. I do think it's wrong to portray JF as a mastermind who "overcame" the poor hitting and weak power of his team.If we are going to credit him for maximizing the pen production, and I feel he does deserve a lot of credit for that, then he should also be held accountable for the massive decline of our returning players on offense, the massive decline of Porcello, and the injury circumstances for Wright and maybe even Thornburg. We led the league in runs scored last year by over 100 runs. Our top 8 returning players by PAs in 2016 all declined-- most by over 100 points. Winning the division does lessen the impact of that fact, but glossing over such an incredible decline from those 8 and our Cy Young winner is doing a disservice to reality. Leon .845> .644 (-201) Holt .705> .520 (-185) Young .850> .713 (-137) HRam .866> .750 (-116) JBJ .835 > .729 (-106) Betts .897> .803 (-94) Pedey .825> .760 (-65) Bogey .802> .746 (-56) 6 of 8 declined by 94 points or more! Even Bogey's 56 point decline is not insignificant.

Several of our RHPs do very well with LHBs: OPS Against .333 Smith (just 6 PAs) -.582 in 2015 .572 Kimbrel .675 Reed .690 Kelly .720 Maddox I'm not worried. We could also go with 12 pitchers, even with 2 days off in the 5 game series, since I don't see us PH'ing much anyways.

Yes celebrating our own win tastes much better than celebrating another's loss.

34 years old is not too old. I still think there's a chance HRam hits over .800 next year. I'm not counting on it, but it is possible. I wouldn't bet on him ending up above .750. We're paying the guy, so he'll be back. I hope we sign JD Martinez and Nunez. That would allow us to squeeze out HRam's PAs, if he's stinking up the place...again. Nunez would also give us insurance at 2B. JD gives us the legitimate clean-up we desperately need. 1. Bogey SS 2. Betts RF 3. Beni LF 4. Martinez DH/1B 5. Devers 3B 6. Nunez 2B/DH or HRam 1B/DH 7. Pedey 2B/DH or HRam 1B/DH 8. JBJ CF 9. Vaz C

RBI Leaders 102 Betts 90 Beni 79 Moreland 63 JBJ 62 HRam 62 Pedey Nobody else over 40 HR Leaders 24 Betts 23 HRam 22 Moreland 20 Beni 17 JBJ 10 Devers (+20 HRs on the farm) XBHs 72 Betts 56 Moreland 48 Beni 48 Bogey 47 HRam 39 JBJ 26 Pedey 25 Vaz 23 Devers

One game to go. We'll probably rest just about everyone. It's hard to imagine us winning the division without Devers and Nunez joining the club mid season. .892 Nunez (173 PAs) .821 Devers (236 PAs) Updated Sox OPS (300+ PAs): .803 Betts .776 Beni .769 Moreland .760 Pedey .749 HRam .746 Bogey .737 Vaz .729 JBJ (160-299 PAs) .713 Young .644 Leon .603 Marrero .520 Holt

Odds of winning the World Series Westgate (9/18 update) 9:4 CLE 5:2 LAD 5:1 HOU 7:1 WSH 8:1 CHI 10:1 BOS 12:1 NYY 14:1 AZ Bookmaker.EU 3:1 CLE 7:2 LAD 9:2 HOU 15:2 CHI 8:1 BOS 8:1 WSH 10:1 NYY FiveThirtyEight 27% CLE 16% LAD 15% HOU 12% WSH 11% CHI 7% BOS 6% NYY 3% AZ Odds Shark +300 LAD +350 CLE +500 HOU +700 WSH +800 BOS & CHI +1400 NYY & AZ