moonslav59

Yes, JD is a big dice roll, too with bigger upside (performance level) and downside (money & years).

So much for re-setting the luxury tax. Maybe they have a taker on Ellsbury or will trade other somewhat costly players. This would suck, bigtime for us.

The risk is which Morrison are we getting? The 38 HR and .353 OBP one from 2017 (He also hit .375 in Sept of 2016) or the previous one?

Yes, JD's offense is much better than Morrison (except his 2017 numbers), but at what added cost? The money saved by not signing JD and getting Morrison instead could be used to add another solid SP'er or keep Pomeranz/Kimbrel around longer. It wouldn't bs just a JD vs Morrison comp. It would be JD vs Morrison & Cobb (or the like).

If we sign JD to DH, aren't we relegating Moreland and HRam to such "limited roles"? Sure, JD can play the OF when one needs a rest thereby opening up maybe 15-30 games at DH for HRam, but there's not that much difference between Morrison & JD in terms of how it affects other players's playing time. (Besides, can't Morrison play a few games in LF?)

If you double BR's weird projection of 320 PAs for Devers in 2018, he's have these numbers: .279 26 82 (.344/.479/.823) If you change his 2017 numbers to match 162 games played (670 PAs), here would have been those numbers: .284 27 83 (.338/.482/.819) Either numbers could provide quite a jolt to our 2018 season.

I'm starting to feel the same way, but I wouldn't give up on JD until maybe Morrison or Moose are close to signing elsewhere. There is no hurry, until our plan B options are about to be signed elsewhere.

Good one!

BTW, great work MVP. Thanks for all the info.

With our track record on pitching prospects, I'd probably feel better if our top 10 had no pitchers. That way, we could trade our positional prospects for the next Chris Sale.

We may need a SP'er next year, if Pom bolts and our budget won't allow a decent replacement signing. Who might be ready for 2019? Shawaryn or Beeks? Johnson, Thompson or Lakins? Hmmm.... Hopefully, Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel without a big drop-off, but neither have that many years of team control left. Top closers are costly on the open market these days. We may see a young pitcher fill in here by 2020, but that's being, perhaps, overly optimistic.

Almost all arbs are worth their salaries or they would have been non tendered before the arb. The whole system seems flawed in some ways as things like what arb year is the player in seems to matter more than the performance level of the player in the previous season or two. I agree that JBJ is worth $10M on the open market, but the arb process is far from "open". The reason Mookie's arb number seems low compared to JBJ's is that Mookie's is a year one arb (out of 3). JBJ's is year 2 (out of 4). Kelly's was his final arb year, which normally is much closer to "free market" numbers than earlier arb years. I'm not defending the system, but it is what it is, and our players are getting close to "what they are worth" within the established system of setting the value of contracts for arb eligible players. Pom's $8.5M was in his final arb year. Bogey's $7M is in his 2nd of 3 arb years. I think Holt was overpaid at $2.25M for his 2nd or 3 arbs years, but we're talking by thousands not millions of dollars under the system in place. All in all, it looks like the Sox might end up saving a few million dollars over the estimates, but the Betts' arb decision might change that.

It's close to arb estimates. Every GM in MLB would pay that.

Light years difference. Agreed.

Maybe Donaldson's big payday lessens the chance the Jay's up their offer for JD (assuming they are the "other" bidder).

Maybe a half season or more with no Pedey and no ERod. No 38 games from Nunez, but no 32 games from Pablo, 90 games from Young, 37 games from Rutledge and probably less games from Leon. Yes, many games added onto the 58 Devers got last year, but what about this? More games by Vaz. Probably more games from Price. More games Carson Smith. More games from Steven Wright. More games from Brandon Workman. Hopefully many games from Thornburg. Possibly more games from Maddox & Velazquez. Yes, these guys won't help the offense, but they should help us win some more games.

It's also not unrealistic to expect a player who is approaching prime to get even better year by year. He could have a career year. True, he may have also already had his career year.

Me too. He looked pretty good at the end of last year.

Asking the same old crew to return and increase their run total by 6-7% isn't realistic. Is it any more unrealistic than to think we'd decline by 11% in runs scored from 2016 to 2017? If you are going to gain 50 runs as a team, youre going to need to add something else. Scoring 50 more runs this year would still be 43 less than 2016. Yes, we lost Papi from the 2016 team, but we've added Beni, Devers and our young stars are reaching prime.

For half of 2018.

I don't see it that way.

He may be doing taht already. I'm sure he has put fliers out to at least a couple other big named FAs. This may be one reason nobody else is signing. Once JD signs, the next guy may get a fresh and maybe a little more desperate bidder.

Your guys already busted out. They are due for a a dip. All Sox players are due for huge bust outs this year. So, to answer your question, "YES!"

It certainly make me want him more, but we already signed Moreland.

Wow, who is Abreu's agent? Sponge Bob Squarepants?