moonslav59

It's hard for the union to bargain for more money for players before they reach free agency without giving up some of the massive deals some free agents get. You'd think they'd want a system where everyone gets paid more. In most union settings, the unions try to make things best for the senior most menbers with the idea that everyone will reach that point at some time, but only a select few make the mega bucks in MLB.

Yes, exactly. Had they grandfathered Castillo, maybe he'd get a quick look at some point.

Compared to most FA contracts over 6 or 7 years, where most years are beyond 32 or 33 years old, Stanton's deal looks totally reasonable. I brought up the Pujols' deal as an example of one of the worst, but most turn out bad to rotten. Top 25 signings by total dollars (Not all free agent signings) (Look at the ration of years beyond 32 or 33. Most do not have more years below age 31, like Stanton's does.) $325M/13 Stanton (age 25 to 37) $275M/10 ARod (32 to 41) $252M/10 ARod (25 to age 34) $248M/8 Miggy (33-40) $240M/10 Pujols (32-41) $240M/10 Cano (31-40) $225M/10 Votto (30-39) $217M/7 Price (30-36) $215M/7 Kershaw (26-32) $210M/7 Scherzer (30-36) $207M/6 Greinke (32-37) $189M/10 Jeter (27-36) $184M/8 Mauer (28-35) $184M/8 Heyward (26-33) $180M/8 Teixeira (29-36) $180M/7 Verlander (30-36) $175M/7 Felix H. (27-33) $175M/7 Strasburg (28-34) $167M/9 Posey (26-34) $161M/7 Sabathia (28-34) $161M/7 Chris Davis (30-36) $160M/8 Manny (29-36) $160M/8 Kemp (27-34) $158M/10 Tulo (26-35) Others over 8+ years $152M/8 Miggy (to 2015) $142M/9 Helton (to 2011) $138M/9 D Wright (to 2020) $136M/8 A Soriano (to 2014) $121M/8 Mike Hampton (to 2008) $117M/9 Ken Griffey Jr (to 2008) $110M/8 Pedroia (to 2021) Note: if JD Martinez signs for 6 years, it would be from ages 30.5 to 35.5.

It was not "wrong". It was legal and not even close to unethical. Castillo and Craig were not good enough to make the 25 man roster. Any team in the league was free to take them off our hands. The fact that the league changed the rules does not mean the Sox did anything wrong. Certainly, the situation is unfortunate in some ways, but bot players got paid what they were supposed to get paid, and neither played well enough to deserve to be on the big club. It's not much different from the Dodgers buying out CC's last year of his contract and cutting him loose. The only difference is the luxury tax implications. Is it ethical for an injured player to continue collecting his salary? Of course, it is. Is it fair to the team? Just as fair as Castillo still getting paid.

Their ethical obligation is to pay him millions (while they get nothing from him). Castillo has had a leading role in his current situation. He didn't earn a continued role on the 25 man roster. BTW, Bernie Madoff thrived for decades.

13 years would be absurd for a 29 or 30 year old- not 25. To me, the Pujols contract was absurd, even though that was just 10 years.

Of course the risk factor is very high. Of course Stanton's contract looks too long and too expensive, but if he had been a FA at the time he signed that deal, he'd have gotten as much or more than that. To me, that means it is not "absurd" despite it being an overpay. He was 25 the first year of the 13 year deal. He'll have 8 years out of the 13 (62%) at ages 25-32. Most big FA signings are the opposite with 60-70% of the long term deals after age 32. Even the seasons between 33 and 35 should be productive. That makes it 11 out of 13 seasons (85%) between 25 and 35. There are really only 1-3 seasons that look like he might produce below his pay suggests he should. I'd have no problem with the Sox having that contract with a 25 year old player. I get the point about Miami not being able to afford his contract, but they knew when they offered it, he'd be traded at some point. It was part of the plan. The fact that Jeter & Co, panicked and took a low ball offer should not take away from the fact that the contract was very much in line with open market rates.

With what the Astros gave up, we could have outbid them had we wanted to, without sacrificing our future or opening a major hole on our current 25 man roster. A deal like ERod, Hembree and Beeks looks better, to me. Cole replaces ERod/Wright as our #5 starter, and we have several RP'ers near the same quality as Hembree, but who have options remaining.

But do we know when Morrison or Moose are close to signing elsewhere? I'm not sure, but DD could tell their agents that we are waiting on JD, but consider your client plan B. We'd like you to wait, if you can, or at least give us a heads up, when your client is close to accepting a contract elsewhere and we may better the offer. Maybe that strategy is not realistic, but if I was Morrison, I'd wait, unless the other team is saying "now or never." IMO JD is the best fit for the Sox and the Sox may be the best "fit" for him when the money is considered. Frankly, I'm tired of being held hostage to someone who's holding out for another year on his contract while being offered >$100MM. In fact, the longer he drags this out the less sure I am that I want him on the team anyway. He's not really "the best fit", since we already have a DH making $22M and three young accomplished OF'ers. He's only a "fit" in the sense that we need a clean-up hitter, and we have the ability to pay him more than any other apparent bidders. We should not be held hostage. If anything, he should be crawling to us. There's no way the Jays should outbid us. If I'm DD I contact Bora$$ this morning and make it clear that '"5/current offer" is all the Sox are going to do and JD has 48 hours to make up his mind. And if he opts not to, well, I hope he enjoys not contending for a division championship and not contending for a ring.' I'm not sure we are at that point of urgency. I think, as fans, we are getting frustrated, but I'd hate to miss out on getting JD at an acceptable rate, that may have ended up being more than he ends up getting, just because he chose not to rush into a deal we demanded he take or else. If we view the time is getting close, where we may lose our secondary options, then yes, set a time limit and be prepared to move on.

I disagree. We could have offered as much as ERod, Hembree and Beeks, which has nothing to do with JD.

So, how about ERod, Hembree and Beeks?

It's not absurd. Someone may sign JD to play to the same age GS's contract but without the prime years that come before.

If a contract is not absurd, because the player deserves that kind of money on the open market, it can be traded away for useful pieces. Plus, they did not have to trade GS. They cut the $30M needed with other moves. They chose to trade away more than what they needed to do for two reasons: 1) To make more money for the new owners 2) To gather as many prospects as possible for extended future success.

JD's Potential for Falling off a Cliff https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinezs-potential-for-falling-off-a-cliff/

Baseball Prospectus has this for our top 10: 1. Groome 2. Chavis 3. Mata 4. Houck 5. Ockimey 6. Shawaryn 7. Brannen 8. Scherff 9. Lorenzo Cedrola (Ranked 31st on soxprospects.com) 10. Travis

Wrist injuries can linger or reoccur, but many times they are not a long term problem. He did have a nice ending to 2017 (.803 Sept OPS), including going 25 of his last 78.

I think the Astros made out better. I'm not sure how good the two prospects are, but I live near Houston and never heard of them. Makes me wonder, if we could have gotten him for ERod and Hembree.

The second limit is not as bad as some have made it out to be, especially to teams that just reset their tax, like we did. It's the 3rd level that's the killer. Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are taxed at 12 percent on all money spent above $217M. Those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead. So, basically, we have about $11-14M (depending on Mookie's arb) to reach the second limit. We have $31-34M to spend and still stay under the 3rd limit. We could sign JD to $25M and have about $6M or $9M to play with this summer, if needed.

Stanton's contract was not absurd, nor Gordon's. The new ownership will meet up with the same issues of the old ones: lack of fans and viewership. They should move the team to North Carolina and start over.

Updated Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget (AVV) $Millions 31.0 Price 22.0 HRam 20.6 Porcello 18.5 Sandoval 13.8 Pedroia 13.0 Kimbrel (-1.0 credit for buyout) 12.5 Sale 8.50 Pomeranz 7.05 Bogey 6.50 Moreland 6.10 JBJ 3.83 Kelly 2.38 ERod 2.23 Holt 1.95 Leon 1.43 Vaz 1.10 Wright 0.85 Smith 0.85 Workman 7.5 or 10.5 (arb) Betts 5.6 Total for Elias, Barnes, Hembree, Swihart, Beni, Scott, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Devers, Hernandez, Jerez, Johnson, Lin, Maddox, Marrero, Shepherd, Travis, Velazquez 14.0 Player Benifit Payment $202.3M or 205.3M Total Depending on the Betts' arb ($5.3M or $8.3M over the luxury tax).

What's a comparative offer the Sox might have made to top this one?

Astros Acquire Gerrit Cole By Connor Byrne | January 13, 2018 at 6:05pm CDT The Astros have acquired right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates for righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin, according to announcements from both teams.

True...or close to double. Addison Reed just got almost $17M/2. I think Kelly is a close comp but maybe not as good as Reed. Still, the last year of arb is usually "closer" to FA market rates than earlier arb years, but the numbers can still fall way short.

I'm talking myself out of wanting JD for anything more than $120-125M/5. I wouldn't be upset, if someone else signs him for $115M/5

True, but over the last 4 years, he has a lower WAR than Todd Frazier and is just above Encarnacion who got less than half of what JD expects to make. 2014-2017 JD .300 128 350 (32 HRs and 88 RBIs in 535 PAs per season) .362 OBP/ .574 SLG LM .242 80 220 (20 HRs and 55 RBI in 470 PAs per season) .324 OBP/.438 SLG