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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    So, will you ever answer which one you think will have the better year and contract term? You don't have to use OPS or Steamer. I'm just wondering who you think is the better player and who will end up being the best signing overall.
  2. moonslav59
    Agreed. Our line-up does seem pretty set with nobody on the bench who has value that screams for more playing time. We have poor infield defense, so I guess we could use Marrero as a late inning defensive replacement for Devers, Bogey or Nunez. Moreland will get some PAs, especially if HRam struggles or plays some DH. Beni could continue struggling vs LHPs and might need to sit some there, but I doubt it happens much, and I seriously doubt Cora ever platoons him. JBJ could sit when slumping with JD playing LF at Fenway and RF away. Our bench seems better suited to PH for our catchers, and that's why I like the idea of keeping Leon & Swihart on the 25 man roster, at least until Pedey returns. That will be when our bench choices become more meaningful and impacting.
  3. moonslav59
    Ben had some big contracts on the roster he inherited as well. He also had a depleted farm and so had no real trade options. He had to go the free agent route. That doesn't excuse the poor FA choices he made, but it did make sense to wait a year to sign a pitcher as the market was loaded his second year and go for offense year 1.
  4. moonslav59
    Is it wrong to point out that an argument could be made that a team outspending other top spenders by $40M should probably be a top 2 or 3 contender? That's all I did. I didn't even say I agreed with anyone making that argument. DD has a plan. He has pushed hard for a ring in a 3 or 4 year window, and one year has gone by. I like our chances in the next 2-3 years. I'm happy with what DD has done. I'm miles and miles away from calling for his departure.
  5. moonslav59
    Yes, I agreed DD has a plan. I'd have done a few things differently, and I've been very specific about those ideas. Once DD decided to sacrifice some of the extended future for a 3-4 year window, I have praised him for the moves he's made. Playing it halfway would have been worse. It's hard to be critical of the Sale or Pom trades, especially before we see what the prospects we gave up become. The Kimbrel trade looks much better now, since closer costs have sky-rocketed after the deal. His only bad move looks like the Thornburg trade and maybe the Price signing, and both still have time to turn around.
  6. moonslav59
    You didn't answer my question, and Steamer itself projects a hug disparity in OPS between the two.
  7. moonslav59
    WAR actually subtracts value for being a DH. Hosmer has been s*****. He used to be decent, but over the last 2 years he has categorically sucked. I know UZR/150 and DRS are nit the best defensive measures for 1Bmen, but to finish 25th out of 30 in UZR/150 and 30th out of 30 in DRS tells an accurate enough picture of his defensive deterioration. He sucks on defense.
  8. moonslav59
    Mookie is number 40 on my worry list of players on the 40 man roster.
  9. moonslav59
    Yes, indeed. We had good luck with Fister, Rich Hill and Franklin Morales, but not such good luck with Aaron Cook, Sean O'Sullivan, Byrd and Colon.
  10. moonslav59
    So, Steamer projects an .827 OPS for Hosmer. His first back-to-back .800 OPS (actually .762+) seasons of his career. They project a .910 OPS for JD. I guess they value s***** defense much more than I do.
  11. moonslav59
    So, you think Hosmer and JD are equal?
  12. moonslav59
    JBJ is not all that fast, so his good base-running numbers come from having good instincts.
  13. moonslav59
    Yes, but so are some of our best players, and Ben's prospects helped DD get Sale, Pom & Kimbrel.
  14. moonslav59
    I'm almost certain DD signs a "has been" to stash in AAA as insurance.
  15. moonslav59
    I don't hate players who suck for other teams.
  16. moonslav59
    ST'ing OPS (9+ ABs) 1.529 Beni 1.414 Bogey 1.310 Swihart 1.066 Travis 1.000 Devers .956 CAstillo .767 de la Guerra .742 Holt .737 Tavarez .683 de Jesus .676 HRam .664 Barfield .641 JBJ .629 Lin .557 Marrero .502 Quiroz .451 Selsky .442 Vazquez .222 Moreland .176 Betts
  17. moonslav59
    DRS does account for catching the ball. UZR/150 does, too, but they do put a lot of emphasis on the amount of plays made out of possible plays possible, which isn't a bad thing for any defender to be judged by. UZR shows Hosmer is a plus on ErrR (over 3.0 for 3 straight years), so his bad numbers would be worse without that factoring in. He's a big minus on range (-11.2 and -4.4 the last 2 years). He's minus on DPR (-0.3 and -0.2) On Inside Edge Fielding, he's made less than 60% of "likely plays" in 2 of his last 3 seasons (78% career). On "even plays", he's been horrible over the last 2 years: 14.3% in 2016 20.0% in 2017 These are plays most 1Bmen make 40-60% of the time.
  18. moonslav59
    I think JBJ is savvy enough to be given the green light and not mess it up.
  19. moonslav59
    It is a bit worrisome to be almost $40M over the luxury tax budget and not be a top 2 or 3 MLB contender. I can see someone having issues with the "plan", but to say DD has no plan is wildly inaccurate.
  20. moonslav59
    Last 4 years... RBI per AB .139 L Duda (252/1813) .137 Hosmer (349/2552) OPS with RISP .888 Duda .865 Hosmer RBI/AB with RISP .442 Hosmer 261/590 .434 L Duda154/355
  21. moonslav59
    First of all, RBIs depend a lot on how often men are in base or in scoring position when you come up to bat. Second, Hosmer is worse than Duda.... Duda is a .796 career OPS guy. He has 405 RBI in 2665 ABs (.152 per AB) He's .805 with RISP, which is higher than otherwise. (257 RBI in 642 ABs 0r .40 per AB). He's .869 with 2 outs & RISP. He's .789 with runners on base, which is just below his career OPS. Hosmer is a career .781 OPS guy. He has 566 RBIs in 4393 ABs, which is .128 RBI per AB- significantly worse than Duda. Hosmer is .814 with RISP, which is also better than otherwise and slightly better than Duda. He's .818 with men on base, which is also better than Duda, but with less HRs, he gets about the same RBIs per AB... RISP RBI/AB .415 Hosmer .401 Duda Men on base RBI/AB .278 Hosmer .277 Duda
  22. moonslav59
    He sucks by DRS, too. +3 in 2013 +3 in 2014 +1 in 2015 -6 in 2016 -7 in 2017 He looks okay according to the Fielding Bible vote totals, but he's still getting worse... 41 in 2013 (7th) 16 in 2014 (13th) 31 in 2015 (8th) 12 in 2016 (11th) 17 in 2017 (10th)
  23. moonslav59
    He's saving them for April.
  24. moonslav59
    Here is a look at our 40 man roster by age: My top 25 in RED 34 Pedey HRam 33 Wright 32 Price Moreland 30 Nunez Martinez 29 Kimbrel Kelly Holt Elias Workman Thornburg Pomeranz Velazquez Porcello Hembree Leon (3/13) Sale (3/30) 28 Scott Smith 27 JBJ Barnes Vazquez Marrero Johnson 26 Maddox 25 Swihart Jerez Shepherd Hernandez Bogaerts Betts 24 Buttrey ERod Beeks Travis Lin 23 Benintendi 21 Devers
  25. moonslav59
    What a shame. He has so much promise.
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