moonslav59

Look what happened to Pom and Porcello when the "lost" their out pitches. The knuckle ball is no different.

Why is it so surprising? The guy was our ace in the first half of 2016. He's been injured (no fault of his own) and suspended (all his fault). Let's cut the guy some slack./

I've always been a big Wright fan and knuckle ballers, in general, so it's nice seeing him get some props tonight.

Bogey hit 21 one year. The most he hit another year was 12. He's not a plus defender. There's a chance we could get by without him in 2020. Having a core of Betts, Sale, JD, ERod, Devers and maybe Kimbrel or Bogey is not all that bad. Price might be back to form after surgery by 2020. I'm a cliff believer, but I'm thinking 2021 is when it gets bad. 2020 will likely be good but not great. Just my take.

Okay, but you said we were going to start "feeling it" this summer. I doubt we will need a costly piece. We're pretty deep. I agree, we can't keep everyone, and I have run the numbers to show why we can't, but our window is open this year and next. I happen to think we'll be very competitive in 2020, but that's a little hard to project, at this point. It's 2021 that things will be very tough. There's still enough time to try and build some farm pieces into assets, and I'm not confident it will happen, but that's 2/5 years away.

Come on, Jacko. Look what we gave up for Reed, Zeagler, Hill and others over recent years. Our farm is not that weak, and it's not like we need to trade for Sonny Gray or Gee Stanton. We'll be a top contender in October, and we'll make a trade that brings what we need. We'll be okay next year, because we got out from under HRam's deal. Kelly is not an essential piece to being highly competitive next year, especially if Smith or Thornburg return to their former selves by next season. The year after that, we lose Pablo's contract, so it's not like we're losing everyone. The ones we do lose may not be able to be replaced in kind by free agency, but we'll be able to spend on some mid level guys like we did in 2013. We are not closing the window just yet.

What's the fascination with ex-Sox players? Lowrie has missed more time with injuries than Pedey, Holt and Nunez combined.

I'm grateful DD created a window of 4-5 years. It sure beats a 1-2 year window. I'm not sure we'll be bad after 2021, because we'll still be at or near the luxury tax spending limit, but there's no way we keep all our best players or replace them, in kind, without Henry paying massive taxes and incurring maximum penalties that may further hinder the rebuilding of our farm and extended future.

I try to stay optimistic, but I just don't see any of our ML ready or near ML ready prospects that look like they can replace our departing free agent players in kind. Here's a look at what we have to deal with... 2018-2019 Winter Kimbrel- maybe Smith or Thornburg can take up some of the slack. If we keep Kelly and let Kimbrel go, maybe we can be okay without a top closer. Lots of "ifs". Pomeranz- will likely try to replace him with Wright, Velazquez and/or Johnson, but then our starter depth is shortened. Maybe Beeks or Haley can surprise. Kelly- obviously, if we let Kimbrel and Kelly go, we'll have to sign somebody good. Does anyone think we'd have a similar team next year without K & K? Even if Smith and Thornburg step it up, we;d be much weaker. (Plus, if we use Wright or Velazquez as a starter, we'd shorten our pen by 3 guys (K, K & Wright). 2019-2020 Winter Sale- we'll need to keep Sale. I don't see any way around it. It will cost a lot, especially when compared to what he's getting paid now. Porcello- Expecting Wright to take Pom's slot and Velazquez to take Porcello's slot is really hoping for a lot. There's little chance both will do as well as P & P have done for us over their time here. Bogaerts- There's nobody in the system that can come close to replacing Bogey. Our best replacements would be Holt & Nunez (also a FAs that winter)-both even worse on defense than Bogey. No way Chatham is going to come close to Bogey by 2020, if ever. Moreland- Sam Travis? Ockimey? Move devers to 1B? Move JD to 1B? Nunez- He'll be gone. Holt- Could stay with the Sox Thornburg- not a big loss, since he's given us squat. 2020-2021 Winter Betts- irreplaceable. JBJ- nobody in the system. (Holt? JD to FT OF?) Wright- Beeks, Haley, Shawaryn, Groome, D Hernandez or Mata? In 2021? Smith- not hard to replace Leon- not hard to replace

Maybe going for mid level free agents for shorter deals will be the best way to go going forward.

Exactly. If the only guy Swihart catches is Wright, we may never find out.

I guess that solves that question for a few days, anyways.

...but a master at chess.

He hasn't walked anyone and has let up zero HRs!

How do we know, if he's decent, not so bad, bad or horrible? Even one game won't tell us much.

My fear was that the FO would install Swi as the starting catcher based on his offense but then Swi got hurt and lost most of a season opening the door for Vazquez & Sandy Leon. Fear not, S5, if Sox management didn't give Swihart a chance when the team catching OPS was below .475, they must value defense enormously. To me, the only way Swihart wins significant time behind the plate, is if he shows he has grown defensively since 2015. That is not easy to do or prove, since he has been hurt and playing other positions much of that time, Of course, if he starts hitting .800, then a choice may be made that neither of us like.

Herrera is very good, but he's a 2 month rental. Tough call.

No, and that is one reason why CERA gets a bad name. People use the numbers to compare catchers on different teams, with different staffs, different ball parks and different opponents. That being said, it does not mean the theory behind the stat and other stats like OPS against by catcher are useless. I firmly believe most pitchers do much better with one catcher vs the another, and it's not just about calling pitches, blocking wild pitches or framing pitches. There's a huge human element that cannot be quantified. Maybe CERA and OPS against capture some of the intangibles, if the sample sizes are large enough and even enough between two or three catchers, but I get the strong feeling Sox management believes it's a real aspect of judging catcher value.

The best and only way to use CERA effectively is to compare catchers on the same team, during the same season- pitcher by pitcher. Since the sample sizes are usually unbalanced starter by starter, it's hard to make any claim based on that data alone. Even if you look at OPS against pitcher by pitcher, there are usually only a few pitchers who were caught by two different catchers for over 25 IP. (25 IP is still too small to definitively judge anyone, but if just about every pitcher does better with one guy over another, I think you can make some suppositions. That being said, here are the 2015 numbers by catcher: By OPS against (notice the wide disparity of PAs against between individual pitchers) PA Pitcher OPS against Swihart 448 Porcello .766 356 Miley .756 301 ERod .662 274 Wright .719 272 Owens. 726 268 Kelly .768 143 Ogando .795 123 Barnes .827 114 Breslow 1.000 109 Taz .665 109 Layne .720 101 R Ross .778 93 Masterson 1.076 Leon 377 Buchholz .627 182 Miley .738 120 Porcello .934 106 R Hill .410 74 Breslow.550 Hannigan 300 Kelly .732 293 Miley .722 196 ERod .803 177 Masterson .779 169 Porcello .736 104 Tazawa .876 92 Buch .817 92 Breslow .850 Nothing here jumps out to say Swihart was much worse than Leon or Hanigan. The 2015 to 2016 numbers don't make Swihart look too bad either, if you look at only the pitchers he caught a lot of in 2015 that were here in 2016 with other catchers. 2015 OPS Against with Swihart vs 2016 OPS against 2015 w/Swi Pitcher 2016 OPS against overall .766 Porcello .635 .756 Miley to SEA .662 ERod .728 .719 Wright 653 .726 Owens 1.007 .768 Kelly .828 .795 Ogando n/a .827 Barnes .709 1.00 Breslow n/a .665 Tazawa .730 .720 Layne .699 .778 Ross .624 1.08 Masterson n/a Porcello, Wright, ERod, Kelly and Barnes were the 5 pitchers Swihart caught the most in 2015 AND were also on the 2016 team. Here are their ERAs and CERAs in each season: Porcello 2015: 4.92 (4.47 with Swihart, 4.15 with Hanigan, 7.86 with Leon) 2016: 3.15 (6.00 Swihart, 2.52, Leon, 3.45 Hanigan, 3.64 Vaz) Wright 2015: 4.09 (4.24 Swihart, 2.25 Leon, 3.60 Hanigan) 2016: 3.33 (1.35 Swihart in 6.2 Innings, 2.72 Vaz, 2.90 Hanigan, 6.46 Leon) ERod 2015: 3.85 (4.08 Swihart, 1.29 Leon in 7 Innings, 3.89 Hanigan) 2016: 4.71 (3.00 Hanigan, 4.50 Vaz, 4.90 Leon) Kelly 2015: 4.85 (5.10 Swihart, 4.20 Hanigan) 2016: 4.18 (1.35 Leon in 7 IP, 4.50 Vaz, 6.97 Hanigan) Barnes 2015: 5.44 (4.61 Swihart, 6.94 Hanigan in 12 I 2016: 4.05 (0.00 Holiday in 3 IP, 1.37 Vaz in 20 IP, 3.38 Swihart in 3 IP, 6.04 These numbers show Swihart in a more unfavorable light. We also have to remember that Swihart was pressed into action quickly and had very little time with the pitchers he caught before catching them in live games. Still, I trust management's judgements on these things, and if they feel like he should not catch much, I trust they have good reasons to think so.

I don't waive the banner as much, but I still firmly believe that catchers make a huge impact on how well pitchers do over the long term.

We sure could use some farm infusions in the next 2-4 years. We won't be able to keep everyone, and if we could just add one high impact player from the farm at a minimum salary, it would have a chain reaction effect with our tight budget. It's not a given that Henry will spend $39.9M over the luxury tax 3-4 years in a row. Even without the maximum penalties being applied, the tax rate goes up and up on thet $39M.

You never know how opposing teams value our players. For all we know, KC might prefer Swihart to Johnson or Beeks. Here's a question: what if we trade Castillo and pay $7M of the $11M owed? If the team we trade him to, adds him to their 40 man roster, does that $7M then count on our luxury tax budget?

Teams already pretty much out of it and maybe looking to trade... 17-41 BAL Machado Valencia 18-38 CWS J Abreu J Shields 20-39 MIA Realmuto J Bour Straily Barraclough 21-29 CIN Votto Gennett J Hughes R Iglesias D Hernandez 21-38 KCR Moustakas Merrifield J Soler A Gordon K Herrera 26-33 TOR Donaldson Solarte Smoak S Pearce JA Happ Clippard S Oh

MLB reports... 26. Boston Red Sox: 1B/3B Triston Casas, American Heritage (Fla.) HS Casas ranks right with Nolan Gorman as one of the best high school power hitters in this Draft. He had a chance to go as high as No. 13 to his hometown club in Miami, and a few other spots in the teens, so getting him at No. 26 is a nice grab for the Red Sox. While he has some athleticism for his size (6-foot-4, 240 pounds), Casas is most likely a first baseman, albeit one with a strong arm who can delivery 94 mph fastballs on the mound. CBS Sports... 3B Triston Casas, American Heritage School (Florida). Casas is a third baseman presently, but it's highly likely he'll be shifted to first as a pro. He's got big power, but he's also got some issues making contact. Scouts are mixed on how well that power will translate, but the potential for big numbers is there. He's committed to Miami. SBNation... The Red Sox are on a quest to rebuild their farm system, and they’ve gotten started with their first pick of the 2018 MLB draft on Monday night. With that selection, they went with high school first baseman Triston Casas with their first round pick at number 26 overall. He is 18 years old and went to American Heritage High School in Florida. He is also committed to the University of Miami next year. This bucks their recent trend of taking pitchers in the first round, something they’ve done in each of the last two years. It also goes against some of the recent mocks, though Casas was mentioned as a possibility by a few publications. We’ll have a lot more on Casas later on tonight, but for now here are the basics. Although he’ll be listed as a 1B/3B, it’s almost certain that he will be a first base only player soon enough, and possibly as soon as this year. The bat has huge potential, though, particularly the power. There are some questions about the hit tool, but the Red Sox clearly believe it is good enough for him to tap into that raw power. Baseball America has him ranked as their number 25 prospect in the draft, while MLB Pipeline has him at 20 and Fangraphs has him at 33.

8 Ks out of his 9 outs between the 2 games.