moonslav59

I look at the list I compiled and see it differently... The Trey Ball pick was bad, but many teams swing and miss on top 10 draft picks. Most of our pitchers have been picked below 30. Here's the list from 2010 by draft slot pick- notice how many choices were below 30th: 7 Trey Ball 12 Groome 18 Barnes 24 Houck 31Johnson 33 Kopech (helped get us Sale) All-in-all, our top pitcher picks (considering their slots) have all pitched in the bigs or are still fairly highly regarded prospects. The next tier: 36 Owens 37 Light (got us Abad) 39 Ranaudo (got us R Ross) 45 Stankiewicz 57 Workman Did anyone expect greatness from these slots? Or these? 87 J Callahan (helped get us A Reed) 88 S Anderson (helped get us Nunez) 103 J Cosart We actually have not done too badly with later picks: #118 Austin Maddox #143 Noe Ramirez #148 Mike Shawaryn #151 Ty Buttrey #171 Travis Lakins #178 Stephen Nogosek (part of A Reed trade) #201 Ben Taylor #211 Justin Haley #231 Logan Allen (part of Kimbrel trade) #263 Kyle Martin #374 Jalen Beeks #411 Bobby Poyner Recent later rounders: #100 Durbin Feltman #131 Jake Thompson #160 Thad Ward #161 Alex Scherff

It's hard to imagine anyone, let alone a good manager, would bench one of our hottest hitters (Leon) who also is a great defensive catcher.

I'll leave that to the reader. We're doing better than one would expect given the aspects I listed, but a few players not reaching expectations or getting hurt is expected. We're looking good, but I expected that. Did you?

From fangraphs... Wake: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=219&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=271&legend=1,2&split=base&time=daily&start=2002&end=2011&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=KN&ymin=&ymax= Wright https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=8185&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=271&legend=1,2&split=base&time=daily&start=2013&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=KN&ymin=&ymax=

I once did a study on how our pitchers did the day after Wake pitched. I have since lost the data, but it showed our staff ERA was about 0.50 better. Knuckle ballers mess up the opponents timing. Their value stretches beyond their start. Wright had a record of success for many years in a row before his injury & suspension. We should not view him doing well as a fluke. In 2016, Wright started the season with a 2.18 ERA over his first 15 starts. Only 1 start saw him let up over 3 ERs (5). In 12 of his first 14 starts, he let up 2 or less runs. The guy is capable of putting up good numbers for more than a month or so. Before 2016: 3.95 ERA MLB in 107 IP (203-2015) 3.81 ERA in AAA 2015 (52 IP) 3.42 ERA in AA/AAA 2014 (100 IP) 3.46 ERA in AAA 2013 (135 IP) 3.41 ERA in winter ball '12-'13 (29 IP) 3.49 ERA in AA/AAA 2012 in 142 IP This is the model of consistency. The injury messed him up. The suspension slowed his return. He's back.

Swihart is "best of all?" How about this? Without Pedey, with Betts and others missing time, with Devers below .700 and our catchers hitting about .500, we're one run from the league lead. Our slugging % is .003 below the much-vaunted Yanks. Our ERA- is second only to the Astros in the AL and beats the yanks by 5 (82 to 87). That, with 4 starts from outside our 5 man rotation and a bunch of guys on the DL. Surprisingly, our defense, as measured by UZR/150 is second only to CLE in the AL. (To be fair, DRS has us at -21 for 24th place in MLB.) Looking good!

I'm not surprised. We have no luck with drafting pitchers.

It might not be hard to argue with the results in 2021, 2022 and beyond.

I was firmly against the Kimbrel and pom trades. As closer costs have sky-rocketed, the Kimbrel trade looks better than at the time of the deal. I'd undo the Pom trade, despite the Espinoza surgery- but that is based on hindsight and Pom's current status. All-in-all, both deals helped us in the win now mode we were in- no doubt. Their control time is nearly up, so if we get no ring, one could argue for an undo, again, in hindsight. I liked the Thornburg trade at the time, so saying I'd undo that one seems hollow, but if we're talking hindsight, of course I'd undo it. I'd undo the Price signing, but I certainly understood why we did it and wasn't against it at the time. He was the best pitcher available at a time we greatly needed one. The Sale trade was the one I dreamed of and schemed of for years. I have never been against trading top prospects, and I wanted Ben/DD to trade some. I'd have preferred trading for Quintana over Pom, Thornburg, Smith and Kimbrel, but it's hard to know if that was ever even an option. Again, I'm fine with the totality of DD's moves. I'm glad we are and will be highly competitive for a 4-5 year window. I'd have tried to keep a few more prospects, but it is what it is and I'm going along with the plan. However, I'm not going to sugar coat my beliefs about the trouble our team will be facing by 2020 or 2021.

I guess the Sox should have spoken to your niece before pulling the trigger.

We are going to need someone within our system to step up. Velazquez, Beeks, Mata and Groome are our best bets. Free agents will be very expensive, even if mid level signings. I seriously doubt Price opts out, so our 2020 rotation might look like this: (Sale at $33+M) Price ERod Wright Velazquez/Beeks/Shawaryn 2021 (Sale) Price ERod FA or Velazquez/Beeks/Shawaryn FA or Groome/Mata/Houck/D Hernandez

Here's a look at our top pitching draft picks over the years. While many never panned out, some were traded for pretty good players. 2003 2 rd, Abe Alvarez 4 rd. Pablebon 2004 3 rd. Andrew Dobies 4 rd. Tommy Hottovy 5 rd. Ryan Scroyer 6 rd. Cla Meredith 2005 #26 Craig Hansen (part of Manny for j Bay trade) #42 Clay Buchholz #47 Michael Bowden 2006 #28 Daniel Bard #40 Kris Johnson #44 Caleb Clay #71 Justin Masterson (Traded for VMart) 2007 #55 Nick Hagadone (part of VMart trade) (18th round- Hunter Strickland) 2008 #30 Casey Kelly (part of AGon trade) #45 Bryan Price #85 Stephen Fife (part of Erik Bedard trade) #108 Kyle Weiland (part of Lowrie for Melancon trade) 2009 #28 Reymond Fuentes (part of AGon trade) #77 Alex Wilson (part of Cespedes for Porcello trade) 2010 #39 Anthony Ranaudo (traded for Robbie Ross) #57 Brandon Workman 2011 #18 Matt Barnes #36 Henry Owens #143 Noe rRmirez 2012 #31 Brian Johnson #37 Pat Light (traded for Abad) #87 Jamie Callahan (part of A Reed trade) #118 Austin Maddox #151 Ty Buttrey #211 Justin Haley 2013 #7 Trey Ball #45 teddy Stankiewicz #113 Myles Smith #263 Kyle Martin 2014 #33 Michael Kopech (big part of Sale trade) #103 Jake Cosart (#374 Jalen Beeks) 2015 #171 Travis Lakins #201 Ben Taylor #231 Logan Allen (part of Kimbrel trade) (#411 Bobby Poyner) 2016 #12 Jay Groome #88 Shaun Anderson (part of Nunez trade) #148 Mike Shawaryn #178 Stephen Nogosek (part of A Reed trade) 2017 #24 Tanner Houck #131 Jake Thompson #161 Alex Scherff 2018 #100 Durbin Feltman As you can see, there are very few Sox top 20 draft picks used on pitchers. Many that never amounted to much were traded before that was realized.

Plus, while Velazquez was not "drafted", he was initially brought in by our organization.

Quiroz is another thought (1.016 with Portland).

I think Espinoza and Dubon still have a chance at shining at the ML level. Maybe 1 out of the rest might amount to something valuable. Moncada (.772with 7 SB in 50 games) Kopech (struggling despite an 11.8 K rate) Margot (struggling this season) Asuaje (struggling in MLB but .800 in AAA) Dubon (.922 in AAA) Basabe (.859 in A+) Espinoza (injured) Logan Allen is in AA now and is only 21. He's been under 3.75 for 3 years in a row. His K rate has been over 10 the last 2 years. Gerson Bautista has pitched for the Mets this year. Callahan pitched for them last season. Shaun Anderson is 23, but he's doing fine at AA. He's seen hi K rate rise and BB/9 fall. The other Basabe is at .866 in A/A+ this year. Josh Pennington is doing well in single A. (I haven't checked every player traded, but someone might surprise us.)

In hindsight, I'd undo Price, Pom and Thornburg, but that's not really a fair way at looking at the issue. As I've said several times before, I'm happy with DD's overall plan to build a 4-5 year window, but I am not sugar coating the fact that this team will have serious problems by 2020 or 2021.

soxprospects.com has new rankings posted: http://www.soxprospects.com/index.html Groome moved from 1 to 4 Chavis moved up to #1. Houck jumped over Mata to #2. Mata stays at #3. Beeks from 13 to #5. Shawaryn & D Hernandez stay at #6 & #7. Chatham jumped from 18 to #8. Ockimey stayed at 9. Travis fell from 5 to 10. Big jumpers: Lakins 19 to 12 Espinal 29 to 15 Crawford 59 to 21 Buttrey 39 to 28 Jerez 44 to 29 Quiroz 46 to 34 Big droppers Raudes 11 to 16 Brannen 12 to 18 Castellanos 16 to 23 de la Guerra 24 to 33

Sox OPS+ Leaders 208 Betts 169 JD 160 Moreland 139 Beni 127 Bogey 124 Holt 78 Devers 77 Leon 76 Nunez 60 JBJ 29 Vaz 12 Swihart ERA- 36 Wright 47 Velazquez 48 Kimbrel 48 Barnes 68 Sale 68 Kelly 82 Porcello 84 Walden 86 Smith 89 ERod 94 Price 102 Hembree 119 Johnson 156 Pomeranz

Looking at each player traded one-by-one, your case could be made about just about everyone DD traded, except maybe for Moncada, Kopech and Margot, but the sheer number of prospects traded is astounding. The odds are that at least one of two of the "Dubons" or "Basabes" will likely go on to do something more than utility level play. Prospects traded by DD (highest ranking achieved on soxprospects.com) 1 Yoan Moncada (Sale) 5 Michael Kopech (Sale) 7 Luis Ax Basabe (Sale) 21 Victor Diaz (Sale) 3 Manuel Margot (Kimbrel) 6 Javier Guerra (Kimbrel) 13 Allen Logan (Kimbrel) 24 Carlos Asuaje (Kimbrel) 2 Anthony Ranaudo (R Ross) 3 Anderson Espinoza (Pomeranz) 5 Deven Marrero (Josh Taylor) 5 Bryce Brentz ($$$) 5 Garin Cecchini ($$$) 9 Mauricio Dubon 12 Travis Shaw (not a prospect when traded for Thornburg) 24 Josh Pennington (Thornburg) 11 Shaun Anderson (Nunez) NR Gregory Santos (Nunez) 12 Wendell Rijo (A Hill) 30 Aaron Wilkerson (A Hill) 13 Pat Light (Abad) 18 Luis Aj Basabe (Ziegler) 40 Jose Almonte (Ziegler) 18 J Callahan (A Reed) 20 Gerson Bautista (A Reed) 20 Stephen Nogoesk (A Reed) 21 Jonathan Aro (with Miley for C. Smith) I might have missed someone, but my guess is that 1-3 players not named Moncada, Kopech, Margot & Shaw will become more than a utiltiy player in MLB at some point.

Maybe he thinks the big need is for 2021 not 2020, although Casas might not be ready by then either. Maybe he just picked the best player available on their chart. (He could be traded in 1-3 years.) Maybe he saw the league moving towards power and jumped on the band wagon. Maybe he likes some of the prospects we have in the system right now more than you and me, and he thinks we'll have significant infusion in the next 1-3 years. It could be a little of all of this and more we don't know about.

With Pom & Price being so shaky, ERod coming back from knee surgery and Sale and Porcello taking the ball every 5 dyas, we haven't needed starting pitcher depth as much as previous seasons. When we have needed it, we've come through very well. 0.00 Wright 7 IP 1.50 Johnson 6 IP 2.53 Velazquez 10.2 IP 1.52 ERA 4 starts 23.2 IP 4 ER 18 H 21 K/ 7 BB

There might not be any other choice.

...and 146 out of 324 before that.

In 2016, Wright started the season with a 2.18 ERA over his first 15 starts. Only 1 start saw him let up over 3 ERs (5). In 12 of his first 14 starts, he let up 2 or less runs. The guy is capable of putting up good numbers for more than a month or so. Before 2016: 3.95 ERA MLB in 107 IP (203-2015) 3.81 ERA in AAA 2015 (52 IP) 3.42 ERA in AA/AAA 2014 (100 IP) 3.46 ERA in AAA 2013 (135 IP) 3.41 ERA in winter ball '12-'13 (29 IP) 3.49 ERA in AA/AAA 2012 in 142 IP This is the model of consistency. The injury messed him up. He's back.

It's not the first time he's pitched SO ball for 7 innings. I was not aware you have been praising him and linking you with others. Sorry for that. Wright had very consistent and good numbers for years before 2016. This is not a fluke. I actually expected Wright to be good again, once he got over his injury. He won't end the season at 1.57, though, so yeah, I'm not expecting 7 IP and 0 ERs every start.